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Fooled by the Dot Plot- 4/18/24

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I'm not sure I understand everything Jimbo says here, but it's definitely worth thinking about. 

6 hours ago, Jimbo said:


(Alternative title: How to play the players 101)

So the much anticipated slam dunk sure thing long bond rally fades into the monetary distance as print boy jay layers on the synthetic QT.

It was always a mirage with a 2 trillion defecit.

And once again the FED has played the players.

Reminds me so much of the sure thing slam dunk treasury short play of mid 23...riding the treasuries issue flood...until they realised.....the rrp was their doom.

Notice how the Eccles Ecclesiarch layers on the synthetic QE (the dot plot) and QT (we must fight inflation first) in alternating layers.

Using it to play the players.

But it looks like it's time for a little rally in Treasuries as T-bill paydowns temporarily flood investor accounts with excess cash. 



A couple weeks of dropping yields to come.  Warning Signs Abound, But Ignore Them for Now


Does similar logic apply to stocks? One More Rally To Go

As for the intraday stuff, every time I spy a bottom on the ES 24 hour S&P futures, it turns out to be a mirage. I've been hallucinating. Now it looks as though the market has been in a 5 day cycle flat up phase since Monday evening.

If this is the up phase, I can't wait to see the down.

If they break 5005, the first step looks like 4975. To make that moot, they would need to clear 5045 on the upside. 


Zooming out to 5 hour bars, you can see why I like 4975 as a target. But you can also see an impressive top pattern with a conventional measured move target of 4850.  Since nobody believes this selloff, including me, ergo, nobody is short. And if nobody is short, then he won't be covering on the way down. Only nobody knows what nobody is thinking. So I'll let the screens do the picking and hope they keep on ticking. Swing Trade Screen Picks – List Shrinks With Good Profits 


For moron the markets, see:   

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At some point the market has to reflect, even if just for temporary pullbacks, that the economy is not as rosy as all the lies would portray.  Once in a while reality matters.

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Hard to know how the economy is really doing, other than following the tax data. But I do not think that the stock market ever resembles the economy. It's its own entity. Its own reality. 

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4 minutes ago, DrStool said:

Hard to know how the economy is really doing, other than following the tax data. But I do not think that the stock market ever resembles the economy. It's its own entity. Its own reality. 

completely on board with your liquidity thesis, but the market does bob around inconsequentially in very short (hours/day) terms based on the bullshit.       As an aside I did see the average tax refund was approx. the same, but there were many fewer refunds for which no one had an explanation.  Perhaps incomes and employment are not as rosy as reported.  

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Any time I allow my judgment to intervene against the pure results of the algorithm I only spent 55 years developing, the result is not good. 


The latest screens found just 12 total unfiltered buys and 276 total unfiltered sells on Friday. There were zero buys and 33 sells after the final trigger filters were applied. This is inconsistent with the broad market cycle analysis which says there isn’t much more downside in the short run. It’s macro versus micro. So I looked at all 33 charts with sell signals.

While I did see charts that looked like they would decline a little, that was the problem. “A little.” Most of these sell signals were triggering with the charts trading at or just above clearly identifiable major support levels. Even if they break, there will be an immediate rebound for most of these. If the market really is turning down – which the macro says it is not – then there will be better entries later.

There was one exception, and I am adding that to the list as a short,

Source: Swing Trade Screen Picks – List Shrinks With Good Profits

So now the support levels are breaking, and I was too impressed with my opinion on the macro to get on the train and make money this week. The macro may yet prove right starting next week, but this was obviously a playable move and I chose not to play because I am so risk averse and I did not think a move lasting 3-4 days (my guess) was worth a shot.  

But at least the screening algo has proven itself yet again. 

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Let's do a little experiment. I will show the list of the 33 sell triggers. So these are 33 shorts that could have been opened at Monday's open.  Here are the results for the week as of 3:30 PM Friday, starting with Monday's opening price.  

ACWI.O 108.26 105.24 2.8%
AI 22.19 20.84 6.1%
AMH 35.79 35.09 2.0%
APTV.K 74.45 69.23 7.0%
ARKK.K 46.73 44.38 5.0%
ARQT.O 10.18 9.65 5.2%
AVDX.O 11.13 11.43 -2.7%
DELL.K 119.46 117.88 1.3%
DNLI.O 18.97 16.66 12.2%
DYN.O 26.14 23.75 9.1%
GEN.O 21.09 20.35 3.5%
HCP.O 24.45 23.45 4.1%
HST.O 20.14 18.60 7.6%
KKR 98.81 93.85 5.0%
KRE 46.85 46.05 1.7%
MGNI.O 9.14 8.58 6.1%
MRVL.O 71.25 65.54 8.0%
NCLH.K 18.08 18.21 -0.7%
NXPI.O 237.49 219.09 7.7%
PK 17.24 16.12 6.5%
PLD 115.18 104.22 9.5%
PNC 152.40 147.57 3.2%
PPL 26.83 26.57 1.0%
QLD 86.40 79.17 8.4%
QQQ.O 442.06 423.61 4.2%
QQQM.O 181.89 174.29 4.2%
RHI 72.35 69.65 3.7%
SCHG.K 92.55 89.07 3.8%
SHO 10.87 10.08 7.3%
ST 34.87 33.86 2.9%
TGTX.O 14.15 14.22 -0.5%
TQQQ.O 60.20 52.81 12.3%
VRNS.O 44.72 43.58 2.5%
    Avg 4.8%
    S&P 500 -2.0%

30 out of 33 winners. 

Showing how smart I am, I only picked ONE of the MFs to add to the list. 

 Swing Trade Screen Picks – List Shrinks With Good Profits

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The market was down 2%. This list was down 4.8%. Since it was a list of shorts, that's a gain of 4.8% in one week .  

Pretty, pretty, pretty good. 

I chose one of them. I am an idiot. 

That will not happen again. I'm just gonna load the list from now on. No thinking! 

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