PileDriver Posted April 5, 2003 Report Share Posted April 5, 2003 Charmin, that site has great indicators. Check this one out Bwhahahahahaha http://tal.marketgauge.com/dvmgPro/charts/CMFCASH.HTM Short term up more perhaps but long term still in strong grips of vicious bear market, new bull no fricking way. Hence based on B4's risk/reward computation, which all successful traders consider, now is the time to be legging into shorts and bear funds. Any upside from here will be limited in price and/or time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rayok Posted April 5, 2003 Report Share Posted April 5, 2003 A chart For the chart meisters to consider. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PileDriver Posted April 5, 2003 Report Share Posted April 5, 2003 A chart For the chart meisters to consider. That fits in with 1) we are slowly entering into a huge expanding trading range market. 2) inverted Bradley with big low then big high. 3) BB's call that after the next bottom it will reverse quickly and dramatically, bears are going to have to be a quickcover and not expect crash or end of the world. Exactly how this current topping process plays out I could care less all I know is that the last Orgy high (Dec 02) has not yet been answered with a panic washout low. The checkbook still needs to be reconciled before any big launch up from here. I stay put in bearish funds. At this point not worth serpenting the last gasp pop potential in the near-term, just close your eyes and turn off the boob-tube and do whatever it takes to completely eliminate getting sucked into the bullspin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BAREister Posted April 5, 2003 Report Share Posted April 5, 2003 There are some people around here.............who might just..... ..................feel right at home.........................over on: WOLLIE WORLD!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soup Posted April 5, 2003 Report Share Posted April 5, 2003 probably safe to say that we gap up Sunday night/ Mon a.m.; the question will be what from there? I agree w/ Brain , and have said for sometime that the risk is 20-30 points to the upside ( could see it on the globex open Sunday) and 200-250 to the downside. Will use strenght to postion short. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BAREister Posted April 5, 2003 Report Share Posted April 5, 2003 The EWave boyz can ASSert their views ass aggressively ass they like, butt it won't do them much good. The BARE would remind the reader that we always get this sort of blather at junctures like this. There's always some pushy bullish view, targeting a still much higher level, and, the higher the market goes the more shrill the predictions become. The Matrix is desperate to show the public the market has stopped declining. In that, so FUR, it has succeeded. Whether it will continue to be able to do so is entirely dependent, FUR now, on the vicissitudes/caprices of war. Time is SNOT on its side, as steadily weakening economic data continues to mount. The bulls need to get the fence sitters off the fence and the data is keeping them there along with the war. The bulls HAVE to avoid a lengthy seige of Baghdad in order to prevail. IOW, the coalition has to cause capitulation within the next few daze. Anything is possible, but that, at this juncture, seems unlikely, IF the Russian accounts of this war are even remotely correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BAREister Posted April 5, 2003 Report Share Posted April 5, 2003 The Shrub ass predicted just invoked one of his extraordinary emergency powers - in response to the threat of pandemic - ass predicted - namely, that of quarantine, marking the FURst time IT has been resurrected in over 20 years... CNN reports HK hospitals now "overwhelmed" w SARS cases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
longOnUranus Posted April 5, 2003 Report Share Posted April 5, 2003 The problem is, SARS starts out like a cold/flu and, if similar to other coronaviruses, is most transmissable in its early (secretive) stages. So we should really quarantine everyone with a cold. SARS should pass quickly, since immunity seems to be readily acquired and the case fatality rate is small enough that a pandemic should not occur. Pandemics involve tens of thousands, not hundreds, such as influenza epidemics in the past which have killed millions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soup Posted April 5, 2003 Report Share Posted April 5, 2003 kind of quiet, is this a signal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soup Posted April 5, 2003 Report Share Posted April 5, 2003 From today's Barron's: "The herd impetus is so palpable that quite a few traders say they're positioning their bets for a run-up not because of, but despite, their view of stocks. In other words, they buy because they believe others will, and don't want to be left out of the big hurrah." Not exactly the kind of chatter one hears at important bottoms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
longOnUranus Posted April 5, 2003 Report Share Posted April 5, 2003 soup - I agree, yet the March sell-off found enough buyers to trigger a short covering panic. Anything remotely resembling "panic" selling continues to be perceived, ala Hans Hans Hans Hans Brinker, as a buying opportunity. Doesn't allow much upside though, does it.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GregFokker Posted April 5, 2003 Report Share Posted April 5, 2003 soup - I agree, yet the March sell-off found enough buyers to trigger a short covering panic. Anything remotely resembling "panic" selling continues to be perceived, ala Hans Hans Hans Hans Brinker, as a buying opportunity. Doesn't allow much upside though, does it.? Until they've spent their last penny, which is already or almost upon us, imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkiddMarket Posted April 5, 2003 Report Share Posted April 5, 2003 The problem is, SARS starts out like a cold/flu and, if similar to other coronaviruses, is most transmissable in its early (secretive) stages. So we should really quarantine everyone with a cold. SARS should pass quickly, since immunity seems to be readily acquired and the case fatality rate is small enough that a pandemic should not occur. Pandemics involve tens of thousands, not hundreds, such as influenza epidemics in the past which have killed millions. LOU- I would agree with you in theory, but if this was 1918, I'm sure that no one in the US would even know that SARS even existed. They probably wouldn't even have recognized it yet in Asia- as you well know, public health has changed quite a bit in the past 100 years. I did a quick search on the Spanish flu pandemic and found this little ditty. Late in the spring of 1918 the Spanish wire service Agencia Fabra sent cables of an unusual nature to Reuter's news service headquarters in London. "A strange form of disease of epidemic character has appeared in Madrid," it said. "The epidemic is of a mild nature, no deaths having been reported." The illness began with a cough, then headache and backache, fatigue, high fever, racing heart, loss of appetite and labored breathing. It usually lasted about three days. Cases had cropped up over the spring and summer in other countries, too, from Norway to India, China to Costa Rica. But in Spain, suddenly 8 million people were down with the bug. And as the summer of 1918 turned to fall, the epidemic lost its mildness: people started to die. Full article at http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/aso/databank/entri...ies/dm18fl.html I applaud Bush in his willingness to use quarantine to halt the spread of infectious disease- if that same power had been used in the early days of HIV in the US, I believe many many lives would have been saved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strikerm3 Posted April 5, 2003 Report Share Posted April 5, 2003 What kind of effect did Aids have on the market? just wondering. Not underminding its fear effect. What about all these underfunded pension plans I keep hearing about? Does anyone know the guidelines to this? Seems like it shouldnt even be allowed but I know I am missing many important points. Bare- Why listen to Russian news? How much could they possibly know? Im sure you have an answer. Seems like France,Germany, Russia etc, will always lean towards the negative instead of the positive. Of course vice versa here but that seems to be what cranks our market the most short term. P.S. as to elliot waves etc using other indicators is always vitale as most others note and follow. I will always use them. http://www.saavycharts.info/ When looking at Max Pain do you guys take into account that the option sellers would make up alot of option losses by stock gains. Its a nice indicator but seems like the range is probably only accurate within around a range of 10 to 15% of the stock price. ex. 24 to 27 on QQQ. Deeply eroding time value would surely offset when added to stock gains regardless if its suspectd to land around 25. Not forgetting the commisions and tax implications for not realizing gains since they dont sell it just expires. just wondering some factors I know I am leaving out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drano Posted April 5, 2003 Report Share Posted April 5, 2003 The problem is, SARS starts out like a cold/flu and, if similar to other coronaviruses, is most transmissable in its early (secretive) stages. So we should really quarantine everyone with a cold. SARS should pass quickly, since immunity seems to be readily acquired and the case fatality rate is small enough that a pandemic should not occur. Pandemics involve tens of thousands, not hundreds, such as influenza epidemics in the past which have killed millions. Don't underestimate the impact of SARS. Rant on: The fatality rate is currently said to be 3-4% which is not small. The rate should drop as hospitals get more experience with the most efficacious treatment. However, if hospitals are "overwhelmed" and do not have enough respirators, etc., or staff which refuses to treat patients because of fear of infection....death rate will go up. Contrary to first reports, it is now said that casual contact with SARS victims can spread it (like touching a doorknob with, ecch, saliva or mucus residue). Howard Hughes, may I borrow your Kleenex boxes? Pandemics do not start with millions of cases -- they start with a few cases which spread exponentially. We are in the early stages of that. (Remember the AIDS epidemic which was first noticed in a famous New York Magazine article, "The Gay Plague," which commented on the "high" numbers of deaths in the gay community from usually rare cancers -- they were commenting on very few, compared to the number affected thus far.) So far the epidemic is relatively "contained" despite China's incredibly negligent handling of the initial outbreak. Hopefully, public health measures like quarantine will prove effective. Personally, I am not concerned with someone's "right" to go out and infect others as much as I am with my "right" not to be exposed to a serious illness by someone who refuses to accept medical treatment for a serious condition -- which is what triggered the quarantine authorization. People who would never just go and beat someone up often do not understand how unacceptable it is to knowingly expose others to ANY illness (including "mere" colds, which are dangerous for people with asthma, impaired immune systems, etc.) Currently they say it will take a year to develop and manufacture a vaccine. Rant off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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