TheDeepBlueSea Posted February 22, 2003 Report Share Posted February 22, 2003 Where is BARE?? Need to get his take on Wally World: Thanks to BusKow for the following post: Don Wolanchuk is the winner of many market timer awards and he is EXTREMELY bullish. His site, which doesn't provide any clues to the incredible conversation mention below, is The Wolanchuk Report. This was my first contact with any projections by the guy, whom I believe Bare has often mentioned here. Perhaps Bare will honor us with some additional context. Gold to $800/oz, long the dollar, next drop in the market starts from Dow 25,000, two consecutive 4 year cycle lows have flushed all excesses from the system...too many to mention. Tom O'brien is not a great journalist, and after admitted there were some questions he should have asked. Indicated he will have the guy back and do so. Hope he asks how and when this amazing scenario will play out! To listen...(Requires Real Player) Use this link TFNN Archives Scroll down to the show of Feb 21, 2003 "Don Wolanchuck 5:20 Have a Money Making Weekend!" When you click on the date it will bring up the RP utilty. Press the pause button, and pull the slider over until the time indicator in the lower right corner indicates about 01:16:00. Press the play button. Wolanchuk? I remember this guy got a lot of air-play over at the bearforum.com site a year or so ago. Someone posting a record of his calls. From what I recall, the only award he deserved was The Big Raspberry. Sounds like nothing has changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dumpabuck Posted February 22, 2003 Report Share Posted February 22, 2003 Dow 25,000-BWHAHAHAHAHAHA! Don is now back safely in the Happy Acres rubber room where in appreciation he is getting an extra dose of Lithium prior to accepting a plaque from the Veep" for being a greaaat Ameurican" at an undisclosed location. Trade Safe! Liked the $800/oz gold, though. Don must be looking at the "hyperinflation" scenario.. ..in which case $800 gold is too modest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzly_Canuck Posted February 22, 2003 Report Share Posted February 22, 2003 First time poster. I had to post to get some feedback on a few things I've been looking at. What do you guys make of the following: P/C 21-DMA is sky high. RYDEX ratio is extremely low. SPY short interest went up 35% in Feb vs. Jan (QQQ and DIA short interest up 22% and 23% resp.) :shocked BPI is low, although yes it's been lower. But it's quite low nevertheless. Feedback is greatly appreciated :wink2: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest BEARDRECH Posted February 22, 2003 Report Share Posted February 22, 2003 Dow 25,000? Not within the next 10 years, if ever. Why not make it Dow 250,000? That kind of projection is the most encouraging thing I've heard all night... for my bearish positions. Glad that guys like that aren't yet extinct. fokker no joke just suppose we go into hyper-tyger-inflation;zooming way way up ,sky hi type inflation,and money disappears; and all we have is "currency"---and who knows what value it will have if any (at a time indterminate)--are we ,at that unknown time measuring apples to apples or to peaches or to toilet tissue?? Just suppose all the above--do any of the figures quoted above have any relavence to rational economic discourse? I dont think it'll happen but is this the secret assumption behind statements like the quotes above or are they just plain stupidos??? with fond wishes sincerly Senor Ponce;Buenos Aires Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GregFokker Posted February 22, 2003 Report Share Posted February 22, 2003 Posted by GregFokker in LOB: In an interview with Puplava last year, Sinclair put it well (just before he began growling and drooling) in describing the correct interpretation of data. It's not the absolute level, he emphasized, but rather the positioning of that data within its trend. A VIX at 35 and a CPC-21 at .93 is a high number, but a moderate one in the context of the market's decline over the past 6-10 months. In their overall mid-term cycles, these readings are at the low to mid end of their ranges. See Doc's VIX channels for an illustration. Historically, the fed funds rate is at multidecade lows, personal debt at all time highs, balance of trades deficit at all time highs, bankruptcies at all time highs, deficits at all time highs, government solvency near or at all time lows, unemployment persistently high... and the population is aging, nearing retirement in the next 10 yrs for the boomers. And, PE ratios are not yet low. I find the VIX at 35 and the CPC-21 at .93 to be very, very low in light of the foregoing. Equity mutual funds still receive weekly money. In light of the foregoing, that's just insane. Being long US equities is just insane. Look at the 50 year S&P chart on www.sharelynx.net and try to tell me that equities are due for the next leg of their 1995-2000 bull run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GregFokker Posted February 22, 2003 Report Share Posted February 22, 2003 Dow 25,000? Not within the next 10 years, if ever. Why not make it Dow 250,000? That kind of projection is the most encouraging thing I've heard all night... for my bearish positions. Glad that guys like that aren't yet extinct. fokker no joke just suppose we go into hyper-tyger-inflation;zooming way way up ,sky hi type inflation,and money disappears; and all we have is "currency"---and who knows what value it will have if any (at a time indterminate)--are we ,at that unknown time measuring apples to apples or to peaches or to toilet tissue?? Just suppose all the above--do any of the figures quoted above have any relavence to rational economic discourse? I dont think it'll happen but is this the secret assumption behind statements like the quotes above or are they just plain stupidos??? with fond wishes sincerly Senor Ponce;Buenos Aires If that happened, gold would be at 8000/oz, not 800, is my guess. And, what type of inflation? Al Green inflates money supply, and we get bubbles... now we're seeing real estate and commodity bubbles instead of paper assets. I don't think that shares of companies paying more for their input commodities and having less pricing power for their finished goods are going to benefit from the next bubble, whatever it is. Consumers are too tapped out from the deflation of the equity bubble of 1998-2000 and the inflation of the credit bubble that now has them paying their last nickel servicing their debts... companies are screwed, and so's their paper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzly_Canuck Posted February 22, 2003 Report Share Posted February 22, 2003 GF, Thanks. I agree the absolute level is of less relevance than the trend but a 35% rise in SPY short interest is a tad disconcerting. The silver lining is the data is based on mid-month settlement, or just after we popped. Presumably the short interest should be less now. Thanks again, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drano Posted February 22, 2003 Report Share Posted February 22, 2003 When I think about hyperinflation, it does make me want to re-fi my house, sink the proceeds into gold, and eventually pay off the mortgage in its entirety with the same amount of dollars it will require to buy a can of cola. I think I'd better go walk the pig now before my brain overheats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GregFokker Posted February 22, 2003 Report Share Posted February 22, 2003 Well, I hope I'm right and a sharp blast higher isn't in the cards. Welcome to the Stool, Grizzly. It's a balmy -2 tonight in Montreal, and I'm off to sleep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Habits Posted February 22, 2003 Report Share Posted February 22, 2003 Thanks Brian4, I am surviving but would like to do a little more ka-chinging like you do. Time and painful lessons have helped, and the game is at least becoming more recognizable. Good luck with your trading next week. BTW, anyone see that Einstein looking character on Rukyser tonight? He had an interesting take on some techs. I thot he was particularly interesting when he said he did not have any INTC but had a boatload of TSM. Maybe Fartpolio could shed some light? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrHanky Posted February 22, 2003 Report Share Posted February 22, 2003 I missed the close today because I had to go to work.After seeing the +1400 tick,multiple +1200 ticks and a 7 minute long +1100 tick I had seen enough. I'm not even short the last few days but it is still sickening to watch.I hope we get one more big pop now so I can go short.I'm going to be patient and hope I get a spike.if we don't,I may be out for the next ride down.I may not be able to trade much now because of work so I will be patient. Today was truely amazing to watch,soon as the tanker fire was not a terrorist event,we pretty much had at least a +800 tick most of the day.it is a bit scary seeing how this thing moves up so damn fast and moves down so damn slow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whadda I Do Whadda I Do Posted February 22, 2003 Report Share Posted February 22, 2003 I see the board is disconcerted tonight. Since the market is gaining strength we should invest in the ever growing economy and participate in supporting companies that have made life fullfilling and aided our prosperity......uh.....okay....maybe not. It's going to be a long weekend. Here's reading material, lower half of article contains example of persons who think thoughts then try to cast them as reality. Old guy has a clue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted February 22, 2003 Report Share Posted February 22, 2003 I thought this was interesting but can't draw any conclusions from it... This week's CBOE PCR daily close: Fri 21st .85 Thr 20th .85 Wed 19th .85 Tue .81 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BAREister Posted February 22, 2003 Report Share Posted February 22, 2003 The BARE wuz out tonight w his long-lost relatives, feasting on PRIME RIB (LOL). and PORTOBELLO 'shrooms. Seems Mr TwoScrewsLoose has feasted on 'shrooms of a NAUGHTY ILK with his talk of singing keyboards 'n such. Wyndy, The BARE is here. The BARE has EXTENSIVE FURst-hand experience w Mr. Wolanchuk, whom he hASS dubbed Mr. UPchuk-ski LOL in the pASSt. In fact BARE and WollieDo(W?)n went after anUDDER with such elan that they BOTH were banned FURom Crystal Ball. cASSt out into the TA wilderness, WollieDoWn started Wollie World, a strange and lurid universe where no bears are allowed, except, perhaps The BARE. Wollie claims he needs at least one mASScot to kick around. Anyway, HRFF shows up on WOLLIE WORLD FURom time to time to give UPchukski what FUR . Gentle reader(z) FURet SNOT at all upon Mr Wolanchuk and his tireless prognostications of absurd heights to come in the stock market. Wollie has been UDDERing such nonsense FUR ass (pardon the parlance) 'long' ass HRFF can recall, and the stock market hASS plunged. So hASS Wollie ramped up his projections from 16,000 to 25,000? The shameless knave!!! What tireless CHUTZPAH, what brazen self-promotion! What a SCOUNDREL!!! LOL Such blather is nothing new. We have to FURst stay above 8000. more re DW on the morrow. Time FUR beddie-bye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThorAss Posted February 22, 2003 Report Share Posted February 22, 2003 Er what HE sed, I think. You don't get famous by saying Dow 9000 by 2004. Say something ridiculous like DOW 36,000. Headline grabbing ... meaningless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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