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When the Last Bear Crapitulates 4/5/03
Doug Noland temporarily threw in the towel on the bear case in his column this week, concluding that reliquefaction has been successful for the time being. He remains vigilant, but seemed to resign himself that the credit bubble had been reinvigorated, and said that this would probably revitalize the economy and the markets in the near future.
Noland is a brilliant analyst. But he also falls into the camp which believes that there is a lag between credit creation and economic activity, which is just about the entire financial world. Doc's lunatic theory is that there is essentially no lag between market activity, changes in the supply of money and credit, and economic activity. If Doc is right about this, it has enormous implications for both the immediate and long term future of markets.
Doc discusses that, examines the entrails and chronicles the short, intermediate, and long term market cycles, with hot pictures of naked stock charts, the Long Bong Hit, Uncle Buck and the Golden Stool. Drop by your stock proctologist's office, and get the inside picture, all in the Anals tonight.
Stoolies, log one in. If you're not a stoolie already, become one Now! And don't forget to join Doc during the market day in Stooltrading Beta as he plots the market's twists and turns for you, in advance yet!
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When the Last Bear Crapitulates
Who will be the last bear?
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MultiQuote#2 Guest_Icky Twerp_*
Posted 05 April 2003 - 06:14 PM
Doc, ya convinced me, but that's practically like preachin' to the choir, anyway.
Looking forward to your new experiment, CMAPs only forum. I love the security-blanket of your long term outlooks in the anals.
I think as a Hurst Tutorial it will be very interesting.
IT
Looking forward to your new experiment, CMAPs only forum. I love the security-blanket of your long term outlooks in the anals.
I think as a Hurst Tutorial it will be very interesting.
IT
#3
Sigmoid Friend 
- Bachelor of Stock Proctology
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Posted 05 April 2003 - 10:09 PM
Doc,
I hope that a subscription forum ("fee-cal" matter) will produce a lot of good discussion of the CMAPs and other stuff frm the Anals. IDS is a lot of fun to watch, but for many of us the bread and butter is in trading the longer cycles.
SF
I hope that a subscription forum ("fee-cal" matter) will produce a lot of good discussion of the CMAPs and other stuff frm the Anals. IDS is a lot of fun to watch, but for many of us the bread and butter is in trading the longer cycles.
SF
#4
machinehead
- Dean of Stock Proctology
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Posted 05 April 2003 - 10:34 PM
"Who will be the last bear?"
Looks like a close race between Doctor Stool, Pile Driver and Hypertiger.
Will the last bear to leave please close the cave door?
Looks like a close race between Doctor Stool, Pile Driver and Hypertiger.
Will the last bear to leave please close the cave door?
"GOLD -- it's not just for misers anymore."
"Dollahs -- fire-starters for the K-wave winter." - Drano
"Three humps and a dump." - anotherone, 21 SEP 2004
"No gold was harmed in the making of this movie." - Bizarro Greenspan
[i]"Da Track. Da place where Morons bet on Animals Controlled by Criminals." - our jickiss
"Dollahs -- fire-starters for the K-wave winter." - Drano
"Three humps and a dump." - anotherone, 21 SEP 2004
"No gold was harmed in the making of this movie." - Bizarro Greenspan
[i]"Da Track. Da place where Morons bet on Animals Controlled by Criminals." - our jickiss
#5
Yoshaviah
- Assistant Professor of Stock Proctology
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Posted 05 April 2003 - 11:24 PM
One of my long-term charts (too big to post here) tells the story. If the FED fails to hold the total market above the red trend-line then the party is over for da bulls.
http://stockcharts.c...ver?chart=$wlsh,uu[e,a]waclyiay[d19900728,20030404][pc4!c13!c26! c52!i][vc60][iuj[$usd]!lb14!la12,26,9!lc20!lf!lk14!lh14,3!ll14! lv25][j5291265,y]
http://stockcharts.c...ver?chart=$wlsh,uu[e,a]waclyiay[d19900728,20030404][pc4!c13!c26! c52!i][vc60][iuj[$usd]!lb14!la12,26,9!lc20!lf!lk14!lh14,3!ll14! lv25][j5291265,y]
#7 Guest_yobob1_*
Posted 06 April 2003 - 07:29 AM
Doc - always there to rally the troops and lead them into the light.
Do you think the negative stance of foreigners will be increased by the Iraq war and lessen their appetites for floating our debt, or do you think it is a market neutral event?
I know you're refering to the markets here, but it is currently my read on the general economy also. It's difficult to be precise because as you point out that kind of data lags badly. I'm already seeing the brown spray of fecal dispersion on a local level. Not looking too perky out there.
I once heard a saying that has stuck with me for many years. You're concerned weekly, you worry monthly and you panic quarterly. I see plenty of signs of panic out there already.
Do you think the negative stance of foreigners will be increased by the Iraq war and lessen their appetites for floating our debt, or do you think it is a market neutral event?
Quote
They are telling us now that we have, at most, one or two months, before the Stool hits the fan.
I know you're refering to the markets here, but it is currently my read on the general economy also. It's difficult to be precise because as you point out that kind of data lags badly. I'm already seeing the brown spray of fecal dispersion on a local level. Not looking too perky out there.
I once heard a saying that has stuck with me for many years. You're concerned weekly, you worry monthly and you panic quarterly. I see plenty of signs of panic out there already.
#8
fxfox
- Dean of Stock Proctology
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Posted 06 April 2003 - 02:27 PM
Doc,
wonderfull analitis!
when i took my personal spring break in february i said i come back in May to look for a nice short entry. It looks like if it could be the right decision.
SELL IN MAY AND GO AWAY
COME BACK IN OCTOBER AND CALL YOUR BROKER
yes, form october 2003 on i trhink it could be very hurtfull to be short. Next year the Shrub tries to get a seco0nd presidency. That should be enough to scare the shit out of bears.
wonderfull analitis!
when i took my personal spring break in february i said i come back in May to look for a nice short entry. It looks like if it could be the right decision.
SELL IN MAY AND GO AWAY
COME BACK IN OCTOBER AND CALL YOUR BROKER
yes, form october 2003 on i trhink it could be very hurtfull to be short. Next year the Shrub tries to get a seco0nd presidency. That should be enough to scare the shit out of bears.
'patriot' is formed with 'patria' and 'idiot'
#10
Wahoo
- Stock Proctology Intern
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Posted 06 April 2003 - 11:45 PM
Great stuff Doc.
Only thing I might add is that the COT report does show the commericals net short if one takes into account both the MINI and big contract. However, the large spec (funds) are short both and they could provide more fireworks if things move up.
Only thing I might add is that the COT report does show the commericals net short if one takes into account both the MINI and big contract. However, the large spec (funds) are short both and they could provide more fireworks if things move up.
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