DrStool Posted March 26, 2003 Report Posted March 26, 2003 MoGauge Subsides 3/26/03 The all important MoGauge, which monitors the fuel for the economy and the markets is out and it came down a little. But are the GSE's still monetizing the new mortgages? They may not be. If not, game over. The top window is now open for business. Doc is by no means convinced, as some are, that an extension of the rally is inevitable. If there is to be another upleg, it will not come for weeks, barring something unpredictable, like getting Sodamn or Oslimy. Doc looks at the MoGauge in depth, chronicles the short and intermediate term market cycles, and tells us where this basket case is heading, with hot pictures of naked stock charts, the Long Bong Hit, Uncle Buck and the Golden Stool. Drop by your stock proctologist's office, and get the inside picture, all in the Anals tonight. Stoolies, log one in. If you're not a stoolie already, become one Now! And don't forget to join Doc during the market day in Stooltrading Beta
EasyAl Posted March 26, 2003 Report Posted March 26, 2003 The war rally in bond yields definitely took some steam out of refi. Given the sharp rally in 10 Year treasury bond, it is possible that some re-fi applications in the pipeline of proccessing have become unprofitable for applicants. Here are a few charts on home sales from Northern Trust. It is interesting to note that the median price of a new single-family home in February was $188,800, which is 1.2% lower than February 2002.
FauxCaster Posted March 27, 2003 Report Posted March 27, 2003 Newly wed friends of mine, and long-time San Antonio residents, have been trying to buy a house for a year. Panic home buying has been going on for the last couple of years doubling and tripling home prices in the very cheap housing market of San Antonio. Their last chance was knocked out at the last minute by a huge higher bid. They are now getting disgusted. I ask you which is a greater moral hazard to the economy, easy money chasing up stocks, or easy money chasing up mortgages? This mania will end badly. The unsold lots behind my parents-in-law in SoCal were sold after 20-years. Two half-million dollar homes were built and sold instantly. The builder was an 18-year old kid whose dad let him use his college money to build the houses. He's now rolling his profits into building EIGHT more. Reminds me of the dot com stories.
DogBoy Posted March 29, 2003 Report Posted March 29, 2003 Boob Hans Hans Hans Hans Brinker told his millions of listeners to get into the market for the secular Bull. The fact is the the Brinkerites were all in bonds so they obviously sold off their bonds (a gud move) and bought stocks (a bad VERY bad move). Hans Hans Hans Hans Brinker lives in the ORTHODOX investment world where there are only to flavors, gray and white. stocks and bonds. You periodically shift back and fotrth between stocks and bonds and you supposedly get nice long term returns. Works great in a a Bullz market and even some ways into a Bear market. At some point though BOTH stocks and bonds go down HAND IN HAND like star crossed lovers. We are at that point. Now it's a NO WIN situation for Uncle Al. And guys like Hans Hans Hans Hans Brinker just make his days more difficult. And Mo MOney gets destroyed. And more lives (negatively) affected. Mo Angst.
ThorAss Posted March 29, 2003 Report Posted March 29, 2003 Dogboy, You infest the Stool like a fart at the Vicar's Tea. Around here, that's a compliment. :wink2:
DogBoy Posted March 29, 2003 Report Posted March 29, 2003 Thor, that's the best compliment I've gotten since I've been here.
ThorAss Posted March 29, 2003 Report Posted March 29, 2003 It was a weak moment. We're not usually given to ingratiating flights of niceness ... toilet bowl breath.
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