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MoGauge Subsides 3/26/03
The all important MoGauge, which monitors the fuel for the economy and the markets is out and it came down a little. But are the GSE's still monetizing the new mortgages? They may not be. If not, game over.
The top window is now open for business. Doc is by no means convinced, as some are, that an extension of the rally is inevitable. If there is to be another upleg, it will not come for weeks, barring something unpredictable, like getting Sodamn or Oslimy.
Doc looks at the MoGauge in depth, chronicles the short and intermediate term market cycles, and tells us where this basket case is heading, with hot pictures of naked stock charts, the Long Bong Hit, Uncle Buck and the Golden Stool. Drop by your stock proctologist's office, and get the inside picture, all in the Anals tonight.
Stoolies, log one in. If you're not a stoolie already, become one Now! And don't forget to join Doc during the market day in Stooltrading Beta
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MoGauge Subsides
Loaded up in your Anals 3/26/03
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#2
Hypertiger 
- Assistant Professor of Stock Proctology
-
- Group: Banned
- Posts: 3,270
- Joined: 16-July 02
Posted 26 March 2003 - 07:49 PM
red x
"We are completely dependant on the commercial banks. Someone has to borrow every dollar we have in circulation, cash or credit. If the banks create ample synthetic money (at the request of the consumer) we are prosperous; if not, we starve. We are absolutely without a permanent money system.... It is the most important subject intelligent persons can investigate and reflect upon. It is so important that our present civilization may collapse unless it becomes widely understood and the defects remedied very soon." --Robert H. Hemphill, Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank,1938...
#3
EasyAl
- Doctor of Stock Proctology
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- Group: Members
- Posts: 2,228
- Joined: 20-August 01
Posted 26 March 2003 - 07:50 PM
The war rally in bond yields definitely took some steam out of refi. Given the sharp rally in 10 Year treasury bond, it is possible that some re-fi applications in the pipeline of proccessing have become unprofitable for applicants.
Here are a few charts on home sales from Northern Trust.
It is interesting to note that the median price of a new single-family home in February was $188,800, which is 1.2% lower than February 2002.
Here are a few charts on home sales from Northern Trust.
It is interesting to note that the median price of a new single-family home in February was $188,800, which is 1.2% lower than February 2002.
#6
FauxCaster
- Doctor of Stock Proctology
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- Group: Members
- Posts: 2,747
- Joined: 03-December 02
Posted 26 March 2003 - 09:22 PM
Newly wed friends of mine, and long-time San Antonio residents, have been trying to buy a house for a year. Panic home buying has been going on for the last couple of years doubling and tripling home prices in the very cheap housing market of San Antonio. Their last chance was knocked out at the last minute by a huge higher bid. They are now getting disgusted. I ask you which is a greater moral hazard to the economy, easy money chasing up stocks, or easy money chasing up mortgages? This mania will end badly.
The unsold lots behind my parents-in-law in SoCal were sold after 20-years. Two half-million dollar homes were built and sold instantly. The builder was an 18-year old kid whose dad let him use his college money to build the houses. He's now rolling his profits into building EIGHT more. Reminds me of the dot com stories.
The unsold lots behind my parents-in-law in SoCal were sold after 20-years. Two half-million dollar homes were built and sold instantly. The builder was an 18-year old kid whose dad let him use his college money to build the houses. He's now rolling his profits into building EIGHT more. Reminds me of the dot com stories.
"WE ARE BEING KEPT ALIVE by the Entropic movement of Dark Matter(Sino-Nippo-dollar purchasing of $UST)---as soon as there is a ringing sound,a sign of an clogged artriosclerotic wormhole on the emergency fiat-meter it will end--dynamic equilibrium,will have been achieved;better known as death" -- beardrech (Mar 15 2006, 01:17 AM)
"There's a good chance he was drunk or drugged. Only an idiot would jump into the bear cage." -- Belgrade Zoo Director Vuk Bojovic (August 20, 2007).
It's like you're dreamin' about Gorgonzola cheese when it's clearly Brie time, baby. -- Hitchhiker (S.A.M. 1998)
Mar 28 2003: July 2003 is the time I have identified as the low of the bear move...then the first leg of the bear is over ...many will be caught by surprise to see the market near it's all time high again within 3-4 years [2007] ..."depression" similar to 1932 doesn't come until 2010. -- blackbelt (Mar 28 2003, 10:05 PM)
"There's a good chance he was drunk or drugged. Only an idiot would jump into the bear cage." -- Belgrade Zoo Director Vuk Bojovic (August 20, 2007).
It's like you're dreamin' about Gorgonzola cheese when it's clearly Brie time, baby. -- Hitchhiker (S.A.M. 1998)
Mar 28 2003: July 2003 is the time I have identified as the low of the bear move...then the first leg of the bear is over ...many will be caught by surprise to see the market near it's all time high again within 3-4 years [2007] ..."depression" similar to 1932 doesn't come until 2010. -- blackbelt (Mar 28 2003, 10:05 PM)
#7
DogBoy
- Master of Stock Proctology
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- Group: Banned
- Posts: 1,584
- Joined: 15-March 02
Posted 29 March 2003 - 01:40 AM
Boob Hans Hans Hans Brinker told his millions of listeners to get into the market for the secular Bull.
The fact is the the Brinkerites were all in bonds so they obviously sold off their bonds (a gud move) and bought stocks (a bad VERY bad move).
Hans Hans Hans Brinker lives in the ORTHODOX investment world where there are only to flavors, gray and white. stocks and bonds.
You periodically shift back and fotrth between stocks and bonds and you supposedly get nice long term returns.
Works great in a a Bullz market and even some ways into a Bear market.
At some point though BOTH stocks and bonds go down HAND IN HAND like star crossed lovers.
We are at that point.
Now it's a NO WIN situation for Uncle Al.
And guys like Hans Hans Hans Brinker just make his days more difficult.
And Mo MOney gets destroyed.
And more lives (negatively) affected.
Mo Angst.
The fact is the the Brinkerites were all in bonds so they obviously sold off their bonds (a gud move) and bought stocks (a bad VERY bad move).
Hans Hans Hans Brinker lives in the ORTHODOX investment world where there are only to flavors, gray and white. stocks and bonds.
You periodically shift back and fotrth between stocks and bonds and you supposedly get nice long term returns.
Works great in a a Bullz market and even some ways into a Bear market.
At some point though BOTH stocks and bonds go down HAND IN HAND like star crossed lovers.
We are at that point.
Now it's a NO WIN situation for Uncle Al.
And guys like Hans Hans Hans Brinker just make his days more difficult.
And Mo MOney gets destroyed.
And more lives (negatively) affected.
Mo Angst.
#11
GregFokker
- Dean of Stock Proctology
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- Group: Moderators
- Posts: 14,974
- Joined: 02-February 02
Posted 29 March 2003 - 10:12 AM
Yeah Dogboy, bee-yooteefull analysis.
...A declining spenglerian carnival of Colossaalism united with Inflation where the numbers one through 10 are forever banished as worthless arithmetical detritus from a bygone age... - Beardrech
Naturally we believe the govt numbers... and Boobus Americanus sleepwalks off the edge of the energy-crisis cliff clutching his shares of "Crisco", Yoohoo and GooGah munching on his Yum Yums and Ho Hos. Future historians will have a hell of a time figuring out what the hell Americanus neanderthalus was thinking and exactly what brought on his sudden demise... - Henny Penny
Well, good night everyone. I gotta go lube up for tomorrow's regular end-of-week Gold Slapdown and Stock Index Bear Punishment Rally Weekend Greenprint. ...Probably another Shock-and-Awe Gap-Up-Open and Wire-to-Wire Meltup Runaway Bull Charge Mo-Mo Spike to Fresh New All-Time Lifetime Highs, culminating in a 4:15 yelping scalded dog runoff with panic short-covering and legal not-held bad double fills due to fast market conditions, plus quote system freeze-ups and trading platform lock-outs along the way. *yawn* typical gov't Friday. - Shorty
Naturally we believe the govt numbers... and Boobus Americanus sleepwalks off the edge of the energy-crisis cliff clutching his shares of "Crisco", Yoohoo and GooGah munching on his Yum Yums and Ho Hos. Future historians will have a hell of a time figuring out what the hell Americanus neanderthalus was thinking and exactly what brought on his sudden demise... - Henny Penny
Well, good night everyone. I gotta go lube up for tomorrow's regular end-of-week Gold Slapdown and Stock Index Bear Punishment Rally Weekend Greenprint. ...Probably another Shock-and-Awe Gap-Up-Open and Wire-to-Wire Meltup Runaway Bull Charge Mo-Mo Spike to Fresh New All-Time Lifetime Highs, culminating in a 4:15 yelping scalded dog runoff with panic short-covering and legal not-held bad double fills due to fast market conditions, plus quote system freeze-ups and trading platform lock-outs along the way. *yawn* typical gov't Friday. - Shorty
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