K Wave Rider Posted September 21, 2007 Report Share Posted September 21, 2007 Looking like yesterday's low is the pivot the bears need to break here.... Above that low and the bullz have the ball.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cassiopeia Posted September 21, 2007 Report Share Posted September 21, 2007 Look how similar these 2 patterns are.We should begining the move down to the 50 dma any minute... 609672[/snapback] With GOOG up 6% this week, and a round number to boot, I wonder how many traders are thinking the same thing. Not here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patents Posted September 21, 2007 Report Share Posted September 21, 2007 Look how similar these 2 patterns are.We should begining the move down to the 50 dma any minute... 609672[/snapback] That sounds like fractal analysis (as compared to support/resistance analysis such as what I think LeeWhee uses). After the recent bout using the '29 and '87 fractals, I would be curious if the theory works from a predictive standpoint. Please let us/me know if it pans out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K Wave Rider Posted September 21, 2007 Report Share Posted September 21, 2007 Caught some wheat on the break out at 857...holy sheet just went limit up for a sec.... 850 now line in the sand for the parabola......below that and I would expect to see a big retracement....in the mean time still riding the wave.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted September 21, 2007 Report Share Posted September 21, 2007 DAX hmmm, that doesnt look that bearish. We closed the week above the 62 fibo, although only slightly. MACD crossed the zero line from below too. This better reverse hard next week or we test the highs soon. Chart ?ffnen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crooked_analyst Posted September 21, 2007 Report Share Posted September 21, 2007 HSBC shutting Decision One Mortgage unit U.S. division to take $880 mln charge, cut 750 jobs, British bank says By Alistair Barr, MarketWatch Last Update: 12:14 PM ET Sep 21, 2007Print E-mail Subscribe to RSS Disable Live Quotes SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- HSBC Holdings said on Friday that it's shutting one of its U.S. subprime mortgage businesses, a move that will trigger an $880 million accounting hit and $65 million in costs for the bank's HSBC Finance division. The closure of Decision One Mortgage, which offers home loans through brokers to less creditworthy borrowers, will mean 750 job losses affecting staff in Fort Mill, S.C., Phoenix, Ariz., and Charlotte, N.C., the bank said. http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/hsbc...D&dist=hplatest This will likely lead to 4,000 new jobs - you know, the ones that were lost in August Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeeWhee Posted September 21, 2007 Report Share Posted September 21, 2007 Does anyone know or have a guess as to how many separate entities do program trading? I am using that term in the manner defined by the exchanges that talks about trading a basket of stocks valued upward of $1 mill as I recall.? Not someone using a computer to trade a round lot. I ask this because someone posted a chart of program trading as a percentage of total volume several days ago.? I would like to know in order to get an idea of the "concentration" of trading. Also, do most non-index based funds "program trade?" Or do they generally buy/sell quantities of one or more stocks at a time? 609660[/snapback] That's a good question. I don't know the answer as to how the program trading stats are formulated. If all etf trading is considered "program trading", then it's no surprise to see the pct going higher and higher, though 90% seems a bit much. As Sudaca pointed out last week, the Harvard endowment's biggest positions were all etf plays: EEM, EFA, etc. So hedgies and even big pension funds and endowments are playing the "basket trade" game in a big way these days. That seems to work OK in the case of Big Trends, like submerging right now. Just look at FXI and EEM, for example. But in the case of a sector that is largely trendless, like semiconductors, it doesn't work very well at all. Over the past four years, for example, the SMH and SOX have been treading in a range. During that time, many components have taken the shaft bigtime (INTC and others). And many components have seen huge rallies. Some have seen both big shafts and big rallies. But if you were playing the semico etfs, you weren't able to capture nearly as many points because the sector, as a whole, has gone nowhere. At some point, IMO, maybe even as early as next year, we will start seeing the same thing with the hotsy-totsy's like EEM and FXI: some components will do very well, some will do very poorly, while the sector itself bangs around in a range. Sector ETFs work best when the whole group is either in superbull or superbear mode. Otherwise, they go up and down in ranges (like biodreck, pharma and semico's over the past four years) like carousel horses. We are starting to see just that phenomenon in the REITs right now. The REIT etfs were a great one-way superbull play for years. All the REITs went straight up. Now we are starting to see a number of REIT plays looking like they are entering bear markets. A handful, whether due to funnymentals or buyout possibilities, will hold up better and even do well. But the REIT etfs may simply just bang around and won't offer the "one-way" trade they did from 2002-2007, similar to what the FXI and EEM are doing right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cassiopeia Posted September 21, 2007 Report Share Posted September 21, 2007 Well there is boost over 13,850 SOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K Wave Rider Posted September 21, 2007 Report Share Posted September 21, 2007 Watching Loonie here for short entry at the BIG round number...saw possible capitulation type action last night...let's see if that high holds or not.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeeWhee Posted September 21, 2007 Report Share Posted September 21, 2007 A test of the technical SPX top would be at 1540. So that might be an interesting place to attempt a downside stab if it gets up there. It only got to 1538 cash on Wednesday. Odd, considering that 1540 is the num-num of renown. But as long as the Nard stays over 2632ish, I wouldn't get too excited about the short side just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K Wave Rider Posted September 21, 2007 Report Share Posted September 21, 2007 Look how similar these 2 patterns are.We should begining the move down to the 50 dma any minute... 609672[/snapback] That sounds like fractal analysis (as compared to support/resistance analysis such as what I think LeeWhee uses). After the recent bout using the '29 and '87 fractals, I would be curious if the theory works from a predictive standpoint. Please let us/me know if it pans out. 609677[/snapback] I don't think you understand how to use fractals effectively.... Patterns do repeat similarly over and over again... But there comes a point where the pattern often diverges, and that can be very telling... So just because a pattern is setting up, doesn't necessarily mean it will play out.... If you look at just about any crash setup pattern, it can look nearly identical to a pattern that holds the line at support and then continues higher...what you look for is a failure to hold that support, which we obviously have not seen this time around. So a failed crash setup usually is a great time to go long for the intermediate term...and right now my stuff is on a buy signal unless the bears can do some serious damage in the next few days.... Hope that helps some.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sudaca Posted September 21, 2007 Report Share Posted September 21, 2007 For SUDS, How high can this go? 609654[/snapback] $73-$75 I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
byhiselo Posted September 21, 2007 Report Share Posted September 21, 2007 parabolas on the monthlies everywhere: RIMM, DRYS, GRMN, FXI, EEM, PCU, NILE, FCX, BIDU, ISRG and on and on this can't but end badly, i just hope i'm able to profit from it and the market doesn't stay irrational longer than i can stay liquid cheers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
byhiselo Posted September 21, 2007 Report Share Posted September 21, 2007 and some more: JEC, FLR, MON, DECK ad nauseum every bloody momo group is growing to the sky, we just may get the retest of the august low going into september...now that most everyone thinks its all clear to go back into the water ms. market...you are a cruel one but i love you so cheers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bungster Posted September 21, 2007 Report Share Posted September 21, 2007 Just looking..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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