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Successful Launch, Orbit Established 6/6/24

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The market successfully lifted off the launchpad yesterday and has established orbit. The 5350 level now looms large on the ES. It was the May 23 high, and is also a trend spport convergence level this morning. If it holds above that, the sky is the floor. A 5 day cycle projection looks like 5365. On a 4 day basis it looks like 5385. 2-3 day cycle projection splits the difference at 5375. Under the Big Top

We also have a bottom at a top pattern breakout. The lower neckline conventional measured move target is 5395. If they stay above 5350, then the big pattern would measure to around 5495-5500. Wooie. 

Hard to believe, Harry!

I wouldn't get too excited yet if they do pull back below 5350. It would also need to break a signal moving average band in the 5335-40 area in the pre market to get a 5 day cycle sell signal. If those are broken, then there would be a theoretical basis for a pullback to 5225 or even 5220 by today's close. 

Conversely if the ES holds above 5340 this morning, then all of those higher targets would remain in play. Swing Trade Screen Picks – Still Tilted Buy June 3, 2024


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Insane rally in bonds continues, after supply deluge put to bed last week.  More coming, mid month. But the paydowns will absorb it, as I correctly foresaw (so far). 

Net Cash Pay Down in Millions of Dollars, by Date
Date Security Type Total Offering Total Publicly
Held Maturing
Net New Cash or
(Pay Down)
06/17/2024 Coupons $119,000 $50,468 $68,532
06/13/2024 Bills $246,000 $249,987 $(3,987)
06/11/2024 Bills $200,000 $214,973 $(14,973)
06/06/2024 Bills $200,000 $212,002 $(12,002)
06/04/2024 Bills $200,000 $204,981 $(4,981)


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