GregFokker Posted February 21, 2003 Report Share Posted February 21, 2003 The AAII data is troublesome, but price indicators are the only thing that matters. Doesn't change the fact that institutional investors are fully invested. That's the real contrarian signal. Small investors are trend followers. After the longest bear market in history stands to reason that the numbers would be at record levels. Bont posted charts on the TA thread which clearly show the numbers are extremely volatile, as the little guy gets whipsawed. Doc...the AAII could just mean this is the recognition wave....short and sharp Yes. Fokker's own mutual fund "advisor" who takes Fokker's instructions and broadcasts them to his clients is, for the first time in over 1 year, agreeing with everything that Fokker says. It's worrisome. But if they become bearish all at once... SELL MORTIMER, GET WILSON AND TELL HIM TO SEELLLLLL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drano Posted February 21, 2003 Report Share Posted February 21, 2003 AAII members include lots of college professors who sit around and discuss their portfolios at coffee time in the morning. As a young professor I was shocked and startled to witness these conversations -- not understanding at the time that, because they had tenure, they didn't have to work 16 hours a day like I did, and thus had time for things like investment. My point is -- AAII may be a "mob pyschology" indicator of the most well-versed investor -- and at the point of recognition, perhaps this indicator INVERTS to becoming a leading indicator of true market direction. Just a thought, but -- has this indicator been around long enough so that we can see what happens at similar inflection points? Are they right or wrong at MAJOR turning points? EDIT: Sorry, Oyster and Greg, I was posting this as you were posting yours so didn't see that you'd already said similar things. Great minds run in the same sewers, and all -- and my mind must also run there..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackbelt Posted February 21, 2003 Report Share Posted February 21, 2003 Good morning, Today is my "participation" day... Since Rog mentioned MXIM and currently is on my "watch" list, here is how I see it: MXIM- DAILY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oyster Posted February 21, 2003 Report Share Posted February 21, 2003 OK...go back to my plan talk today where I gave 2 outcomes and I leaned on the 1st......Now if that is the timely high of day as per my plan then all is good for me......if it is the second play and those were the timely highs then we risk nothing....because we know where we would be wrong on this play and count....just logic at play and tide :grin: :grin: :grin: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K Wave Rider Posted February 21, 2003 Report Share Posted February 21, 2003 This market is toast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anjing bau Posted February 21, 2003 Report Share Posted February 21, 2003 RGLD breaking to new lows on the move....... http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SharpCh...;f][vc60][iub14! support @ 22.50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rog Posted February 21, 2003 Report Share Posted February 21, 2003 Thanks BB, I was commenting on the ultra short-term option pinning. Its been my experience over several expirations that MXIM tends to get pinned and the balance of P:C looks to pin at 35. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GregFokker Posted February 21, 2003 Report Share Posted February 21, 2003 Explosions in NYC and NJ I'm hearing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted February 21, 2003 Report Share Posted February 21, 2003 All the software stocks getting killed along with BEA, lovely... Do you guys think Semi stocks are resuming the downtrend from here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tchaikofsky Posted February 21, 2003 Report Share Posted February 21, 2003 Anyony have an idea what's behind the current application of gravity to the indexes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anjing bau Posted February 21, 2003 Report Share Posted February 21, 2003 awesome to see your charts again BB! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oyster Posted February 21, 2003 Report Share Posted February 21, 2003 I will try to post more today but it will be difficult as this is a recognition day......this is the time when you open Bill Williams book and learn to gear up into trends...new trading dimensions......not a simple 1 cak and hold....but adding and adding to get several +100% on one move......we all know the risks though eh?....wink Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
machinehead Posted February 21, 2003 Report Share Posted February 21, 2003 "Machine, perhaps you can ask beranke why the consumer now finds himself buried in record levels of debt ( 8.5 Trillion of household debt) WHy bankrupdties are rising, mgt foreclosures are at record level and credit card charge offs are climbing rapidly? Please let us know his response?" - soup Since Bernanke was a Princeton professor, I hereby refer soup's request to the BAREasster. He can pursue it through the OLD BORE NETWORK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackbelt Posted February 21, 2003 Report Share Posted February 21, 2003 Thanks BB, I was commenting on the ultra short-term option pinning. Its been my experience over several expirations that MXIM tends to get pinned and the balance of P:C looks to pin at 35. Rog, I was/am expecting 35 myself, due to the strike you mentioned and the open gap in that area. The chart was only intented to suppliment your comment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Direwolf Posted February 21, 2003 Report Share Posted February 21, 2003 explosion on a bridge in Staten Island, NYC....smoke plumes...more to come....dw anybody have the FEED data? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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