MrHanky Posted December 13, 2011 Report Posted December 13, 2011 QE3 We all know more QE would make things worse in time anyway,but traders still wanted yet another backstop.
MrHanky Posted December 13, 2011 Author Report Posted December 13, 2011 ES bounced 5 points in the closing minute for the 50 dma sticksave..... as usual
K Wave Rider Posted December 13, 2011 Report Posted December 13, 2011 They closed crude right at the century mark... probably decision time tomorrow...
Lugnut Posted December 13, 2011 Report Posted December 13, 2011 So here is my WTI chart - It is a ratio chart so candle lengths are distorted. Notice the move between the driller (WTI in the candles) and the commodity (WTIC - West Texas Crude - the black line behind the WTI candles). The divergence is basically the same divergence that the Chinese exchanges have had with the US/European ones. The higher prices in crude have not been demand driven - we have CBs around the world forecasting a fall off in demand and the factory numbers out of China confirm it. Yet oil stays high. That divergence will close. But the chart also shows that the driller in this case is apt to fall anyways. US and Canadian production is climbing. WTI is an off shore producer. Altogether, lots of headwind for WTI, especially with no QE out of the Fed for now. If the Fed did announce QE with oil at $100 then the demand destruction of commodity inflation would make the policy suicidal. The oil bubble has to pop along with other commodities placed in a deflationary spin before we get the QE announcement - and I expect that will be a coordinated US/European announcement next spring after a significant crash wave. All IMO. Fade Lugnut.
DrStool Posted December 13, 2011 Report Posted December 13, 2011 Yep, that's my lil rugrat. OK. You do realize how old you will be when she's a teenager, right? A friend of mine had his first kid 19 years ago when he was 45. You should see how old he looks now!
fxfox Posted December 13, 2011 Report Posted December 13, 2011 Gold looking VERY vulnerable here. First daily close below the tunnel since almost 3 years. First big support would be weekly tunnel. STRONG support around 1000, followed by 700. Failure to touch upper trendline on weekly chart combined by not being able to reach 2000 were first signs of weakness in Gold. Gold is (just) an asset class. 10 years ago it was totally out, almost nobody had Gold. Right now Gold is "hip", it is "in", everyone has it, also the barbor around the corner...
DrStool Posted December 13, 2011 Report Posted December 13, 2011 So here is my WTI chart - It is a ratio chart so candle lengths are distorted. Notice the move between the driller (WTI in the candles) and the commodity (WTIC - West Texas Crude - the black line behind the WTI candles). The divergence is basically the same divergence that the Chinese exchanges have had with the US/European ones. The higher prices in crude have not been demand driven - we have CBs around the world forecasting a fall off in demand and the factory numbers out of China confirm it. Yet oil stays high. That divergence will close. But the chart also shows that the driller in this case is apt to fall anyways. US and Canadian production is climbing. WTI is an off shore producer. Altogether, lots of headwind for WTI, especially with no QE out of the Fed for now. If the Fed did announce QE with oil at $100 then the demand destruction of commodity inflation would make the policy suicidal. The oil bubble has to pop along with other commodities placed in a deflationary spin before we get the QE announcement - and I expect that will be a coordinated US/European announcement next spring after a significant crash wave. All IMO. Fade Lugnut. That's really good! A blog oyevitch post perhaps?
Lugnut Posted December 13, 2011 Report Posted December 13, 2011 That's really good! A blog oyevitch post perhaps? I was thinking of doing one on why Ben could not ease today - the standoff with Merkel and the commodity pressure. But post that one if you like and I can do the other one tonight based on that draft I've had in there for a week.
fxfox Posted December 13, 2011 Report Posted December 13, 2011 when i look at the Gold weekly chart again I am scared even MORE shitless.
bundys_dodge Posted December 13, 2011 Report Posted December 13, 2011 Gold looking VERY vulnerable here. First daily close below the tunnel since almost 3 years. First big support would be weekly tunnel. STRONG support around 1000, followed by 700. Failure to touch upper trendline on weekly chart combined by not being able to reach 2000 were first signs of weakness in Gold. Gold is (just) an asset class. 10 years ago it was totally out, almost nobody had Gold. Right now Gold is "hip", it is "in", everyone has it, also the barbor around the corner... Nice informative charts... thanks for posting them.
fxfox Posted December 13, 2011 Report Posted December 13, 2011 Lugnut, very good stuff. I might add that it could be even a bit later then spring. I think that first we need a crash which makes not only ordinary people scared but which also would break wallstreets neck. Before that doesn't happen every pro will be focused on QE3. We need an environment where (speculative) traders think that the FED won't help them out. In sum: Before next QE3 we need a TOTALLY BROKEN market.
An Ant Posted December 13, 2011 Report Posted December 13, 2011 These guys can't even count? Data on sales of previously owned U.S. homes from 2007 through October this year will be revised down next week because of double counting, indicating a much weaker housing market than previously thought. http://www.cnbc.com/id/45659547 Time for QE3 to QEn combined?
Lugnut Posted December 13, 2011 Report Posted December 13, 2011 Lugnut, very good stuff. I might add that it could be even a bit later then spring. I think that first we need a crash which makes not only ordinary people scared but which also would break wallstreets neck. Before that doesn't happen every pro will be focused on QE3. We need an environment where (speculative) traders think that the FED won't help them out. In sum: Before next QE3 we need a TOTALLY BROKEN market. I like your thinking from a policy standpoint - a "clear the decks of the drecks" approach. The political dimension is one that is really the wildcard. QE is deeply unpopular with the right and has become unpopular with many on the left as they see it (rightly) as subsidization of the banksters. That is why the Ron Paul thing is fascinating. At the Ames Straw Poll (which is important among wonks who follow this stuff) Paul was selling his cred as an Obstetrician (his career prior to politics) who is pro life. Here in the US that is one of these issues that motivates a lot of voters who don't pay attention too much to policy (which Iowa is full of - why they get the first contest is beyond me). To make a brief, factual statement about an issue that is highly controversial ( a warning to everyone - I am not / will not take a position nor comment on merits of either position and recommend all here do the same), no one running for federal office can change abortion law. In any direction. Yet, millions and millions of dollars flow into Washington every year into the coffers of candidates, parties and organizations via the pro-life / pro-choice axis. Letters go out about who is about to do what to whom while the justices in the Supreme Court routinely treat the issue as settled. Neither political party benefits from the matter being settled - they get huge funds from earnest people who are told that the next dollar they give matters when it really doesn't. I have talked to representatives in both parties and know a staunch pro-life Republican very well and a staunch pro-choice Democrat real well - they both admit that nothing will change on the issue in our life times. I bring that up to contextualize what is about to happen - if the Ron Paul that has a huge following of people who want to eliminate the Fed and go to a gold standard wins in Iowa, New Hampshire becomes a HUGE deal to markets, IMO. Why? Because that contest will be about fiscal issues and who owns the banksters. You see, all the Republicans will start to out do each other on fiscal matters and out-promise each other on how they will (1) never allow QE again; (2) eliminate/reform the FED; (3) go back to a gold standard. They will do this to keep Paul from being the nominee - otherwise it will be like the Le Pen / Chirac election. But as these candidates place absolutes on Fed policy and make it a huge issue, will Ben then print? If he does in such a political climate, Obama is finished because he will then own the entire policy while the rest of the country is transfixed on monetary discipline. It really is an interesting situation. A hell of a lot happened today and few people realize it (yet).
bundys_dodge Posted December 13, 2011 Report Posted December 13, 2011 It really is an interesting situation. A hell of a lot happened today and few people realize it (yet). Lugnut - You can't leave us hanging like that... unless you are alluding to your earlier comments about Fed.
bundys_dodge Posted December 13, 2011 Report Posted December 13, 2011 Doc - Would you be able to graph the current existing home sale history with the revised history on the same graph. It will be interesting to see that in either in WSE or the Professional Edition. Just a suggestion from a subscriber with an inquiring mind.
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