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Welcome to earnings Q4 season


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#1 swordfish

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Posted 08 January 2010 - 05:02 PM

Alcoa at 11 JAN
IBM at 19 JAN
more big name in the last week of JAN, then FEB
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#2 Black Prince

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Posted 08 January 2010 - 05:38 PM

KISS system fib resistance was at 1144.78 and blue sky to 1228. Just sayin' Something to look forward to by Feb.
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#3 Jimi

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Posted 08 January 2010 - 05:43 PM

In theory and from examples in history, only 1 is necessary as a minimum. From there is can be scaled to any convenient number of x times 1.

:rolleyes:

It's the weekend, it's a market topic, so I'm not letting go unless Doc insists I do.

Your claim:

That is why there is very little marginal cost to move the SPU and consequently the market cap for the whole market.


TPTB decides it needs to mark up equity values. The reference point for these are the familiar indices: Dow, S&P, Nasdaq. It really need only choose one - intermarket correlations exist among equity indices. So, they focus on the the S&P500, because there is a market of liquid futures contracts for it.

Have I got it so far?

The Chief Trader calls... who? Goldman Sachs? I mean, I assume they don't simply have an IB account, right? And they say, "Get long however many contracts necessary to create a pre-market open that's 1% higher than last night's close." And thus begins the establishment of TPTB's position, which bids in other speculators who see the apparent rally, and help create underlying demand for equity exposure.

And, Voila! We have the S&P up 1% in the pre-open.

Is that how it works?

I'm just trying to understand.
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#4 psyche doctor

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Posted 08 January 2010 - 05:56 PM

:rolleyes:

It's the weekend, it's a market topic, so I'm not letting go unless Doc insists I do.

Your claim:



TPTB decides it needs to mark up equity values. The reference point for these are the familiar indices: Dow, S&P, Nasdaq. It really need only choose one - intermarket correlations exist among equity indices. So, they focus on the the S&P500, because there is a market of liquid futures contracts for it.

Have I got it so far?

The Chief Trader calls... who? Goldman Sachs? I mean, I assume they don't simply have an IB account, right? And they say, "Get long however many contracts necessary to create a pre-market open that's 1% higher than last night's close." And thus begins the establishment of TPTB's position, which bids in other speculators who see the apparent rally, and help create underlying demand for equity exposure.

And, Voila! We have the S&P up 1% in the pre-open.

Is that how it works?

I'm just trying to understand.


I can't prove that they manipulate the stock markets through the buying of S&P futures, but I will say this: I am one that has spent a lot of hours trading and watching index futures trade in globex, in all hours of the session, and I must say that I have seen some pretty wierd sh*t go on that would make on wonder. Who is doing the buying and why? I can't answer that, but the premarket globex ramp does draw other speculators in an orgy of self-fulfilling prophecy that helps to keep a floor under the market and remember that most of the gains have come in the globex session, not the actual cash session. It is definitely a strange market. If there really is manipulation going on, it really doesn't matter because there is nothing anyone can do about except not fade them.
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#5 I_Am_Madness

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Posted 08 January 2010 - 05:57 PM

It is what it is...

Both the weekly and daily looks pretty bullish.

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#6 I_Am_Madness

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Posted 08 January 2010 - 06:01 PM

I can't answer that, but the premarket globex ramp does draw other speculators in an orgy of self-fulfilling prophecy that helps to keep a floor under the market and remember that most of the gains have come in the globex session, not the actual cash session.


I probably watch the GLOBEX market as much as anyone here.
Trust me...i'm literally glued to this thing from Sunday night to Friday's close.
Since the March lows. 80% of the gains have occurred on Monday and majority of it in the Sunday night/Monday morning pre hour sessions. If one would had simply BUY at the close on Friday and sold at the open, the gains would be enormous. I'm sure a 100K account would be worth 100s of million at this point by leveraging up.

Please note, i don't believe in manipulation. You can push the futures market as high as you want, but when the regular hours open the cash folks can simply take it down. They don't. That's the thing. Is this a new bull? Could 1,500 on S&P be reached? At this stage, anything is possible.
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#7 Black Prince

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Posted 08 January 2010 - 06:01 PM

I think this is worth looking at.

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#8 I_Am_Madness

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Posted 08 January 2010 - 06:12 PM

This can all be a fake out...but if we get a move down, i'll be a buyer at 1135.

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#9 Jimi

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Posted 08 January 2010 - 06:15 PM

I can't prove that they manipulate the stock markets through the buying of S&P futures, but I will say this: I am one that has spent a lot of hours trading and watching index futures trade in globex, in all hours of the session, and I must say that I have seen some pretty wierd sh*t go on that would make on wonder. Who is doing the buying and why? I can't answer that, but the premarket globex ramp does draw other speculators in an orgy of self-fulfilling prophecy that helps to keep a floor under the market and remember that most of the gains have come in the globex session, not the actual cash session. It is definitely a strange market. If there really is manipulation going on, it really doesn't matter because there is nothing anyone can do about except not fade them.

Thank you. I don't doubt for a moment both that you have spent a lot of hours trading and watching in globex and that you've seem some weird stuff, and that there can be knock-on effects by momentum traders. I'll even go one further and insist this can frequently assume the appearance of outright manipulation.

That's not my beef.

My beef is the insistence that the appearance of manipulation is sufficient evidence of manipulation. Years ago, I started reading about "max pain." For me, it's analogous: manipulation in one market to affect outcomes in another market to the benefit of some group. In this case, option writers manipulate the settlement price of the underlying to cause the maximum number of options to expire worthless. Everyone's seen it time & time again - it's obvious. Right?

Wrong.

It's the artifact of many individual players taking positions in their self interest - they individually create the appearance of a larger "purpose" and suggest a causal mechanism where none exists, IMO:

http://www.tradingne...-times-pin.html

That's why I am interested in understanding the claimed mechanism of intervention in this specific case involving futures contracts and the underlying equity indices. Patents made a very strong claim about the ease with which one can affect this change, so I want Patents to explain the mechanism, not simply dismiss me with game theory homework.

I'm not even asking for "proof" - I am simply seeking answer to some very basic questions: How? Who? When? Why?
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#10 Bungster

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Posted 08 January 2010 - 06:39 PM

It is what it is...

Both the weekly and daily looks pretty bullish.


Dammit Madness! You have made sense again. :o And here I've been chomping at the bit to go short today... :wacko: Thanks for reading the charts objectively...

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#11 psyche doctor

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Posted 08 January 2010 - 06:47 PM

Jimi:


Lately, there definitely has been the "appearance" of manipulation, but, as most of us know, there is no concrete evidence that the market is being manipulated through futures or any other means. It would be very easy for the Fed to funnel money to the primary dealers, in this case the nefarious GS, and tell those clowns to support the market the best they know how. The easiest way for them to do it would be to buy S&P futures because of the intense leverage. Late in the globex session would be the best time to start buying the futures, no reason to do it at 9 PM. The globex session is thin, so it doesn't take much effort to start goosing the market . When the cash session opens, there is a nice gap up. It is bought driving the cash markets higher and then the buying exhausts itself and starts a normal pull back. Now, if you've noticed, most of these gaps don't get filled and barely tested at all. When the cash pullback comes, those ghouls start buying more futures again, now the market goes back up creating the illusion of true underlying strength. Throughout all this, the other market participants think there really is underlying strength and continue the buying where the "futures buyers" left off- they are being drawn in buy the "futures buying."

Anyway, what I wrote above is just a theory, but it is really interesting to ponder this.
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#12 FranciscoTheMan

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Posted 08 January 2010 - 06:52 PM

well if Monday mornings are such a sure-thing for bear colonoscopies, why is it that this group isn't placing small leveraged bets on that. Gee whiz, we should all be playing with the house's money by now....
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#13 shorty

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Posted 08 January 2010 - 07:03 PM

I'm not even asking for "proof" - I am simply seeking answer to some very basic questions: How? Who? When? Why?

How?
By buying S&P 500 stock index futures at the ask until all offers are taken out, then CONtinuing to hit the next batch O' offers, until everyone backs off and we gap up, triggering automatic risk-free index futures arbitrage buying in the underlying caSSh markit.

Who?
The United States federal Gov't.

When?
Whenever they damn well please.

Why?
To make it appear that the economy is better than it is, so they can maintain enough popularity to reamain in power and milk the system for their own personal financial enrichment and sick satisfaction.
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#14 fxfox

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Posted 08 January 2010 - 07:07 PM

ok lets do it: I gonna go long the S&P on monday morning at 9 CET (thats 3am eastern). I will close position on monday at 3:55 pm eastern. Lets see what happens.

mind you: I will donate nothing of the gains, cause i dont expect that anybody saves my ass in case I loose. :lol:
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#15 psyche doctor

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Posted 08 January 2010 - 07:11 PM

well if Monday mornings are such a sure-thing for bear colonoscopies, why is it that this group isn't placing small leveraged bets on that. Gee whiz, we should all be playing with the house's money by now....


I've tried it a few times, once I bought a bunch of calls at the close on Friday, the 2 other times went long futures Sunday evening in Globex. I wished I had been doing it all along, but it has to happen a few times for the pattern to become visible and once you are aware of it, you wonder if this will be the time it doesn't happen. Kinda like psychin yourself out.
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