LeeWhee Posted December 8, 2006 Report Share Posted December 8, 2006 Does the guy just make sh*t up?? "Fast forward to Nov. 7, when Toll was finally, clearly dour. After the company warned that fourth-quarter revenue and current-year deliveries would fall short of forecasts, Toll said that he saw no end to the deep slump in homebuilding. Shares were trading at $27. And just Wednesday, Toll said he "now" sees a possible bottom in the housing market. This was a complete flip from his comments of just a month ago. Toll shares have spent the session trading around $32." It didn't even take him a month to see the bottom. Maybe the chart and his options have something to do with his prediction?? <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Maybe he was only referring to his stock price. After all, TOL is basically a stock printing machine. The homebuilding is just a sidelight, something to do in between cashing in option grants. TOL reported 4Q net income of $173M. That's $692M annualized. The Toll Brothers cashed in on over $450M in stock sales in the past 18 months, and a couple hundred million more in 2004. Most of this stock was granted at $0-$5 a share. No doubt that even if TOL loses money next year, the Brothers Toll will find a way to scratch out a hundred mil or two for themselves. They're very good at what they do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BusKow Posted December 8, 2006 Report Share Posted December 8, 2006 Today's edition of Crap Up 10% or More Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeeWhee Posted December 8, 2006 Report Share Posted December 8, 2006 BTYH, Bad Toys Holding. Does anyone still like this as it is down below .70? The same area it was before skying to 2.50. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Chart looks like the Alps or the Grand Tetons. Appears to be consolidating in a range between 0-2. Love the name, though. Right up there with Crappy Cars Inc and Fraudulent Financial Partners LLC. What a weird company. They make "hot rods" and "sprint cars". And they also run an ambulance service. Vertically integrated, I guess. They sell the hot rods, wait for folks to maim themselves driving them, then pick up the pieces in the ambulances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimbo Posted December 8, 2006 Report Share Posted December 8, 2006 THE MORTGAGE BAG HOLDERS Fannie and Freddie will be left holding the bag - an it hasnt been accounted for yet!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Still think chapt 11 recapitalisation for both of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shorty Posted December 8, 2006 Report Share Posted December 8, 2006 I guess my customers won't be needin' them naked 140 calls I sold 'em. Tanks for your bidness. Wanna play again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lineup32 Posted December 8, 2006 Report Share Posted December 8, 2006 Another Subprime Mrotgouge Huckster Bites the Dust Dimwit Mrotgouge Solutions, a California conpany that described itself as one of the top 15 lenders to homoaners with weak or no credit histories, has shut down, citing "the current unfavorable conditions of the mrotgouge industry." Dimwit ran out of cash needed to meet its obligations to repurchase loans from investment banks and others who bought them in the secondary market, people in the industry said. The banks, which CONvert the loan PAYments into mrotgouge-backed securities for sale to investors, can force the original lenders to repurchase loans if the mrotgouge HomeBubbleDebtors default. "We were all working yesterday, aSSuming we were fine," Dave Hanthorn, a New Jersey-based employee who sells the firm's loans to mrotgouge borkers, said Wednesday evening. "At 5:15 last night we got the call that we were all being pole-axed for Christmas." Bruce Dickinson, Dimwit's chief operating officer, said he couldn't immediately comment pending discussions with lawyers. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Looks like space junk can return to earth-will be interesting to watch the hunt for just who is at the other end of those credit derviatives <{POST_SNAPBACK}> The really toxic crap always ends up with the rocket scientists: County & State Govt treasurers Pension fund managers Corporate treasurers <{POST_SNAPBACK}> thread from Mish site: the average mortgage loan sale agreement has 30-50 specific representations/warranties regarding the loans, and I've seen more than that. (This doesn't count all the other reps/warranties regarding the lender, etc.) The thing that makes EPDs so different, and so icky, is that an early payment delinquency is, in most contracts, sufficient grounds for repurchase. You don't have to have farkled anything up. It goes bad in the EPD period, you take it back. Once a loan is out of the EPD period, a delinquency is not in and of itself grounds for buyback. But. There are potentially jillions of other reasons why you would have to take back a loan "for cause," as it were. Failure to follow the guidelines required. Misrepresentation and omission. Negligence and fraud. Sloppy stupid stuff like a screwed up mortgage document that could potentially cloud title. Failure to get an MI policy cert. There are two things about these kinds of repurchases: they are at least arguable, and investors and originators negotiate/rebut/work things out all the time--or at least, they do in a normal market. My impression of the last 12 months is that investors are pushing really hard. The other thing is that unless the contract specifies otherwise, and it generally won't, your repurchase liability is life of loan. The investor is under no obligation to "find" these problems in a timely fashion. They usually don't get "found" until the first late payment, when the loan goes through an automatic full-dress QC review. In other words, just when you thought you'd unloaded the toxic waste on some other chump: it's baaaak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shorty Posted December 8, 2006 Report Share Posted December 8, 2006 KB Home Employees Booted for the Holidays KB Home's Treasure Coast division had its second round of layoffs in less than six months and may be closing its Vero Beach design center on State Road 60. "I cannot disclose the number of impacted employees and unfortunately I have absolutely no more information at this time regarding the reduction in force," Cara Kane, a spokeswoman for KB Home, stated in an email. "We're not disclosing how many employees were impacted or the specific type of job," Kane explained in the e-mail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted December 8, 2006 Author Report Share Posted December 8, 2006 The real estate market in Florida is an absolute disaster. In addition to the problems prevalent throughout the country, insurance is a crisis. While the housing inventory has been trimmed slightly in most markets around the US over the past two months (and I do mean slightly), the inventory in Florida continues to rise parabolically, and prices are plunging at a faster rate than anywhere else in the US. Most major insurers are not writing policies in Florida at all. That forces huge numbers of homeowners into the state insurance pool which went bust last year. My mother's home was in that pool. She is 84 and on a limited fixed income. Her insurance cost last year was $1100. She lost her coverage when the state pool went bust. They recapitalized it and are taking new customers. The rate is now $4200 per year. Her home's replacement cost is approximately $195k. Many homes in the $400-600k range typical of the newer McMansions will see insurance rates go up from $2500 or so, to $5-7k. At the same time these home moaners are being smacked with huge mortgouge rate resets. As a result of all this from April to December inventory in the SoFlo market went from 77k to 99k units. Orlanduh 19k to 27k. Tamper 27k to 42k. At the same time NYC and close in suburbs, which has a population larger than those 3 FL markets combined went from 20.8k to 19.7k units. This isn't going to get better any time soon. Florida is in trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drwells Posted December 8, 2006 Report Share Posted December 8, 2006 Maybe J6P is tapped out. Today's Flow of Funds (http://federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/Current/z1r-3.pdf) shows the increase of household net liabilities in credit market instruments slowing from a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1110.6 billion in Q2 to 841.6 in Q3. Home mortgage liabilities still decreasing steadily from a rate of 828.1 to 672.7. Consumer credit down from 155.9 to 135.8. Last quarter's trends remain in place: J6P continues spending more than he earns (9709.7 in outlays vs. 9588.4 in disposable income, which continues rising). To hell with Stock Bubble 2.0: he continues selling corp. equities as fast as ever (-756.6) to buy consumer durables (987.6, trending ever upward as the orgy continues). He does appear to be sticking more money in savings (from 243.9 to 465.1) and money market funds (152 to 232.4). Hm, he appears to be selling 165.6 in Treasuries and buying 172.9 in Agency and GSE-backed securities. Does this reflect his money market fund loading up on Fannie Mae toilet paper? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drwells Posted December 8, 2006 Report Share Posted December 8, 2006 I guess my customers won't be needin' them naked 140 calls I sold 'em. Tanks for your bidness. Wanna play again? <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Hilarious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shorty Posted December 8, 2006 Report Share Posted December 8, 2006 The real estate market in Florida is an absolute disaster. In addition to the problems prevalent throughout the country, insurance is a crisis. ... and how 'bout taxes? "Save Our Homes" / Screw the Potential Buyer -- new guy has to pay jacked rates, while neighbors don't McIntosh pointed to for sale signs and said high property tax bills have made lots difficult to sell. "When people are told what the tax bill will be," he said, "they burn rubber getting out of here." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdporter Posted December 8, 2006 Report Share Posted December 8, 2006 The real estate market in Florida is an absolute disaster. In addition to the problems prevalent throughout the country, insurance is a crisis. ... and how 'bout taxes? "Save Our Homes" / Screw the Potential Buyer -- new guy has to pay jacked rates, while neighbors don't McIntosh pointed to for sale signs and said high property tax bills have made lots difficult to sell. "When people are told what the tax bill will be," he said, "they burn rubber getting out of here." <{POST_SNAPBACK}> higher taxes - check higher insurance - check higher inventory - check falling prices - check disaster in 2007 - check! Arizona is next. Spring selling season is coming up in about three months. bad loans coming home to roost. Banks forced to raise lending standards to avoid choking on loans. no more cash out refis in order to use cash out money to pay credit card debt and pay back the mortgage. 2007-2008 has a real potential "day of reckoning" feel to it. Just like early 2003 did before greenspan sent housing to the moon with all his tricks. only this time the reckoning might be for real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wndysrf Posted December 8, 2006 Report Share Posted December 8, 2006 Bears finally got something going today. Excellent signal on GS, key outside day reversal. Way too tired right now. An Epic Session that lasted over 4 hours. I'm going out to party, then I'm going to collapse........... Hope some girl doesn't ask me to "put out". I'm pretty beat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wndysrf Posted December 8, 2006 Report Share Posted December 8, 2006 Here's what happens when 25-35 knot trades spin off of 10,000 ft. Haleakala. Quite a spectacular site...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lineup32 Posted December 8, 2006 Report Share Posted December 8, 2006 Here's what happens when 25-35 knot trades spin off of 10,000 ft. Haleakala. Quite a spectacular site...... <{POST_SNAPBACK}> have you been down in Happy Valley? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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