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IDS World Markets Fri 30th October 09


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Anyone know why Michigan survey shows more optimism than Concon?

 

I keep a notebook with economic data (go ahead, call me a geek). I've have this note posted above the sentiment indicators. I think it came from John Williams:

 

"General background note: The Conference Board measure is seasonally adjusted, which can provide occasional, but significant distortion. The adjustment does not make much sense and is of suspect purpose, given that the Conference Board does not release the unadjusted number. The Michigan survey is unadjusted. How does one seasonally-adjust peoples' attitudes? Also, beware the mid-month Consumer Sentiment release from the University of Michigan. Its sampling base is so small as to be virtually valueless in terms of statistical significance."

 

Basically, the U. of Michigan is worthless. Don't read anything into it. I would only look at the Conference Board for trends, not month-to-month.

 

 

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I keep a notebook with economic data (go ahead, call me a geek). I've have this note posted above the sentiment indicators. I think it came from John Williams:

 

"General background note: The Conference Board measure is seasonally adjusted, which can provide occasional, but significant distortion. The adjustment does not make much sense and is of suspect purpose, given that the Conference Board does not release the unadjusted number. The Michigan survey is unadjusted. How does one seasonally-adjust peoples' attitudes? Also, beware the mid-month Consumer Sentiment release from the University of Michigan. Its sampling base is so small as to be virtually valueless in terms of statistical significance."

 

Basically, the U. of Michigan is worthless. Don't read anything into it. I would only look at the Conference Board for trends, not month-to-month.

 

 

Sorry - this wasn't the mid-month U. of Michigan. It was the full month. So, here's what a sample of 500 households feels like:

 

 

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