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B4 The Bell Tuezelday September 21


Hiding Bear

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Since the 10 th of September we have been stuck like gum to a theatre seat in a closing range of 1118 to 1129 and change. Each day we have either trudged up or down the staircase but the range still holds. The VXO tonite closed at or close to an all time low. The average fund is down to 3% or less in cash and has stock sticking out of every orifice but still they can't buy a close over 1130. The equity p/c ratio was down to 0.67 this morning, if ever there was a set-up for a disaster this is it! ;)

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bearbons:? No doubt.? That is wjy none of the shills mention it.?  This economy is on the precipe of a major freaking depression.?  As long as they can keep the suckers focuswed on the stock mkt, they may have a chance to get out of dodge.

I know for a fact that Greenspan holds the ECRI in great esteem. He is, in fact, a disciple of the creator of their work. That group continues to warn of a weaker economy ahead as their growth rate index clearly shows. I have posted, along with others here, quotes from their economist. Here's one from last week:

 

"A separate measure of U.S. economic performance from the Economic Cycle Research Institute, which covers a broad range of indicators in an effort to forecast turning points in growth, pointed to tough times ahead.

 

ECRI's weekly leading index slipped to 131.7 in the week ended Sept. 10 compared with 132.5 in the previous week.

 

"The continued weakness in a number of components of the index suggests that it's more than just high oil prices that are ailing the economy," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at ECRI. "

 

http://www.businesscycle.com/

 

Where is the "traction" in these statements. Either they are stupid, or lying, or they no longer respect ECRI's work whose index has a very high correlation to the performance of the S&P.

ERCI index will not make any difference for Uncle Al. The current rate is simply just too low. He needs to move the rate up so that he can cut it when it becomes apparent to many people that reccession has started. If he does not move up now, he will not have much room to cut. As long as the news is mixing or sunny, he will push the rate up slowly and steadily.

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The Talking Heads

 

LIFE DURING WARTIME

 

Heard of a van that is loaded with weapons,

Packed up and ready to go

Heard of some gravesites, out by the highway,

A place where nobody knows

The sound of gunfire, off in the distance,

I?m getting used to it now

Lived in a brownstore, lived in the ghetto,

I?ve lived all over this town

 

This ain?t no party, this ain?t no disco,

This ain?t no fooling around

No time for dancing, or lovey dovey,

I ain?t got time for that now

 

Transmit the message, to the receiver,

Hope for an answer some day

I got three passports, a couple of visas,

You don?t even know my real name

High on a hillside, the trucks are loading,

Everything?s ready to roll

I sleep in the daytime, I work in the nightime,

I might not ever get home

 

This ain?t no party, this ain?t no disco,

This ain?t no fooling around

This ain?t no mudd club, or c. b. g. b.,

I ain?t got time for that now

 

Heard about houston? heard about detroit?

Heard about pittsburgh, p. a.?

You oughta know not to stand by the window

Somebody might see you up there

I got some groceries, some peant butter,

To last a couple of days

But I ain?t got no speakers, ain?t got no

Heaphones, ain?t got no records to play

 

Why stay in college? why go to night school?

Gonna be different this time

Can?t write a letter, can?t send a postcard,

I can?t write nothing at all

This ain?t no party, this ain?t no disco,

This ain?t no fooling around

I?d like to kiss you, I?d love you hold you

I ain?t got no time for that now

 

Trouble in transit, got through the roadblock,

We blended with the crowd

We got computer, we?re tapping pohne lines,

I know that ain?t allowed

We dress like students, we dress like housewives,

Or in a suit and a tie

I changed my hairstyle, so many times now,

I don?t know what I look like!

You make me shiver, I feel so tender,

We make a pretty good team

Don?t get exhausted, I?ll do some driving,

You ought to get some sleep

Get you instructions, follow directions,

Then you should change your address

Maybe tomorrow, maybe the next day,

Whatever you think is best

Burned all my notebooks, what good are

Notebooks? they won?t help me survive

My chest is aching, burns like a furnace,

The burning keeps me alive

Try to stay healthy, physical fitness,

Don?t want to catch no disease

Try to be careful, don?t take no chances,

You better watch what you say

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Wendy's Cuts Forecast, Cites Hurricanes

Tuesday September 21, 5:24 pm ET

 

LOS ANGELES (Reuters) - Restaurant operator Wendy's International Inc. (NYSE:WEN - News) on Tuesday cut its 2004 earnings forecast, citing hurricanes, higher legal reserves, costlier beef and challenges at its Baja Fresh Mexican Grill chain.

The Dublin, Ohio-based fast-food restaurant operator said it expects 2004 earnings per share to range from $2.25 to $2.30, versus its previous forecast of $2.32 to $2.37.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/040921/food_wendys_1.html

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RF Micro gains despite Q2 caution

By CBS MarketWatch

Last Update: 3:10 PM ET Sept. 21, 2004 

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) - Shares of RF Micro Devices rose Tuesday, shrugging off the company's warning that it expects second-quarter results to fall short of its prior projections due to weaker than expected demand from Asian customers.

 

............................

Before the bell, RF Micro forecast a pro forma loss of 1 to 3 cents per share in the second quarter on revenue of between $146 million to $152.5 million, a performance that would represent a sequential revenue decline of 8 to 12 percent

..............................

anal cysts polled by Thomson First Call were looking for earnings of 4 cents per share in the September period on revenue of $165.2 million.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/yhoo/story...AB7ED8D1F67C%7D

 

????And it rallies?????

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SBS Tech Lowers 1Q Sales Guidance

Tuesday September 21, 9:01 am ET

SBS Tech Lowers First-Quarter Sales Guidance Due to Parts Shortage, Order Weakness

 

 

ALBUQUERQUE, N.M. (AP) -- SBS Technologies Inc., a maker of embedded computer components, said Tuesday that it will miss its prior first-quarter sales guidance due to a shortage of component parts and poor order volume in the company's short lead time business.

The company now expects first-quarter sales of between $33 million and $34 million, down from its previously forecast range of $36 million to $37 million.

 

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/040921/sbs_technol..._outlook_2.html

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