DrStool Posted January 26, 2004 Author Report Share Posted January 26, 2004 woo. Down 183. Goodnight Detroit! M2M. All market all the time. I WILL be here tomorrow. And so will you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
machinehead Posted January 26, 2004 Report Share Posted January 26, 2004 The market is making fools of all market timers.Market timing worked great for several years until last year. It will work great again. The market is always changing and the herd is always trading last year's market. I'm watching to see what the next phase of the market looks like and to adjust my trading to match that new reality. If we get another Seventies-like period with a volatile market that goes nowhere, market timing will be the ONLY game in town. Some Stoolies were commenting earlier about John Mauldin's slap at TA, even as he admitted that trend following has proven statistical validity. EARTH TO JOHN MAULDIN -- most of TA IS trend following. The reason John doesn't know this is that he's not a trader -- he's a manager of managers -- a consultant. Some of his managers are using TA to obtain their results, but from John's perspective, those managers are just black boxes with an annual return and Sharpe ratio associated with them. What they do to make those numbers is not his concern. You quickly realize why John Mauldin obsesses over the fact that past outperformance doesn't predict future outperformace. He's been chasing those hot hands himself, and some of them blow up on him, no sooner than he gets on board. JOHN -- Try TA -- exploit those statistical "fat tails." Some who admit TA's statistical validity say that in the real world, it can't overcome transaction costs. Even if that's so, Mauldin's point was that if you simply avoid making big mistakes, even plodding mediocre performance year after year without big screw-ups will eventually put you ahead of the crowd. That's what trend following is all about. You may get whipsawed repeatedly, but you won't ride over the waterfall, or get your shorts blown sky-high by a volcanic eruption. Depending on the time frame and indicator you choose, TA can give an objective answer to the question "What is the trend?" Market timing gets wrong-footed now and then. But I would still guess that a simple 12-month MA will achieve better results over the next decade than buy and hold. The problem is not with TA; it's with us fallible, emotional human operators who override the signals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beardrech Posted January 26, 2004 Report Share Posted January 26, 2004 beardrech, Getting out of the cold is the main thing. A log cabin in Louisiana would do just fine. I think you are on the east coast, which has gotten hammered this winter. But you remember Chicago winters. It's not the zero degrees days, but the endless January and February days of grey, 20 degree, damp cold. I hate it. (You are welcome to share our log cabin in Louisiana. But nobody down there gets buried. You'll need a sign for your sepulcher). Chi Thanx for the invite---you mention those glorious chicago winters and my memory makes me recoil at the scene of Wabash and Roosevelt rd(then plain old 12th st) during the war (1940's) when those g'damn pound and a half snowflakes would sock you right in the puss at wind chill factors approaching absolute zero at jetspeed-- Waiting for the wabash ave streetcar in clothing with insulating powers that limited the icicles on your testicles to only six inches in length-- The smoke from a hundred prehistorically sized locomotives moving around the marshalling yards--multittudes of black americans,recent arrivals to the industrialised north from their digs in undernourished mississippi--many of them with pre-gangrenous earlobes,frozen because their railroad mates never bothered telling them how dangerous the chill was to their body's extremities No store bought gloves, but instead ,a pair of sox,mitten substitutes. that within two minutes of snowballing were as wet as pissed in courderoys---childish beliefs in curing cold hands by RUBBING THEM VIGOROUSLY IN SNOW--LEARNING to make windbreakers out of the worlds cheapest and best material:The chicago tribune or Sun --- Silk baseball uniformed mongolian idiots(now correctly named Down syndromed challenged people) walking happily uninstitutionalised amidst the snow white uncaring storm not giving a damn who it touched== beardrech :cry: God how i miss those dear old romantic winter carnival movies starring Sonja Henie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lb Posted January 26, 2004 Report Share Posted January 26, 2004 Thanks to everyone on this board for the their posts and insights, but I no longer need to visit this board as I now will do all my trading using the "forex currency trading system" that I just saw on TV. As the infomercial says, "the red and green arrows show me which way to trade". ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Unf*ckingbelievable, now the get rich quick infomercials are telling you how to beat the foreign currency markets. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- As the greatest central banker of ALL times says; "Bubble, I don't see no stinking bubble". How does this not end badly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wndysrf Posted January 26, 2004 Report Share Posted January 26, 2004 testing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wndysrf Posted January 26, 2004 Report Share Posted January 26, 2004 testing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richmtn Posted January 26, 2004 Report Share Posted January 26, 2004 If we get another Seventies-like period with a volatile market that goes nowhere, market timing will be the ONLY game in town. Some Stoolies were commenting earlier about John Mauldin's slap at TA, even as he admitted that trend following has proven statistical validity. EARTH TO JOHN MAULDIN -- most of TA IS trend following. The reason John doesn't know this is that he's not a trader -- he's a manager of managers -- a consultant. Some of his managers are using TA to obtain their results, but from John's perspective, those managers are just black boxes with an annual return and Sharpe ratio associated with them. What they do to make those numbers is not his concern. You quickly realize why John Mauldin obsesses over the fact that past outperformance doesn't predict future outperformace. He's been chasing those hot hands himself, and some of them blow up on him, no sooner than he gets on board. JOHN -- Try TA -- exploit those statistical "fat tails." Some who admit TA's statistical validity say that in the real world, it can't overcome transaction costs. Even if that's so, Mauldin's point was that if you simply avoid making big mistakes, even plodding mediocre performance year after year without big screw-ups will eventually put you ahead of the crowd. That's what trend following is all about. You may get whipsawed repeatedly, but you won't ride over the waterfall, or get your shorts blown sky-high by a volcanic eruption. Depending on the time frame and indicator you choose, TA can give an objective answer to the question "What is the trend?" Market timing gets wrong-footed now and then. But I would still guess that a simple 12-month MA will achieve better results over the next decade than buy and hold. The problem is not with TA; it's with us fallible, emotional human operators who override the signals. Great points and that is why I've programmed an intermediate term trend following system. I'm getting very nice results in backtesting and it takes the psychological problems out of the equation. Rich Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeerMarket Posted January 26, 2004 Report Share Posted January 26, 2004 Iraq May Resume Oil to Turkey in Days Security problems, which used to be the overwhelming reason for the pipeline's closure, are now a minor issue thanks to the employment of thousands of specially trained guards. British security firm Erinys International Ltd. has hired many of the guards from villages near the same sections of pipeline that saboteurs have bombed and strafed. minor issue? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pigeon Drop Posted January 26, 2004 Report Share Posted January 26, 2004 The Office, all episodes, are playing on BBC America. It is on dish and on some cable systems. Chibear, if you are considering OR, you should really be looking at WA just across the border for tax reasons. OR has no sales tax but that won't help you much as a retiree. If you have a decent sized portfolio you ideally should have your principal residence in a state with no income tax. Currently those are WA SD NV FL TX WY AK. Of those, I seriously like FL WA NV but I haven't looked at them all yet. Watch out for a place that compensates for lack of income tax by having 3x the property tax (TX). WA is a great set up because you can live on one side of the border and do your shopping on the OR side. That's only if you go buy a big screen or something, and you need to pick it up yourself if they deliver it you pay the tax based on where it gets delivered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beardrech Posted January 26, 2004 Report Share Posted January 26, 2004 Reportedly the sepulchrally conservative taste which has ruled tombstone design for all these millennia (square, gray, etc.) has been superseded in 21st century America. Your stone can now feature a photo-etched color holographic of your Honda rice rocket with the xenon headlamps and the kustom wheels, for instance. Engraved caption: 2 Kool 2 Be 4 Gotten. On the OTC Bulletin Board I plan to float an issue called Monster Monuments. We will offer 'elegant' stones in the shape of Playboy bunny ears; '3Ds' featuring the bare chests of famous strippers and porn actresses; and cartoon characters such as Elmer Fudd, Bugs Bunny and the Road Runner. The basic business plan will be to pocket the massive royalties due to the trademark owners, then abscond to Lebanon, Uzbekistan or Mongolia, beyond the reach of their dunning letters and writs of forfeiture. Yes I'll send you a contribution beardrech ... but I must retain full creative control. :shocked MH tHANK YOU Iagree and all of us have sent you a signed agreemeent via our local poney express--guaranteed delivery time:less than two months-Ah progress what crimes are committed in thy name!! About your tombstone enterprise:the prospectus reads as if from the archives of the director of the movie "Blue Angel" starring Emil Jannings and Marlene Dietrich-- with special emphasis on the scene of the Professor with a cracked egg on his pate-- Oh Yes a questioin about past tombstone technology-- for all--is it true that at curtiain time on Broadway,simultaneously at the New jersey Site of Al Jolson's grave, spotlights go on illuminating a statue of Al on bended knee while a crude sound system turns on with Al J's voice bellowing "Mammie"? Or is this an urban myth?? beardrech :cry: Ever the inquirer are you?Eh? Always questions questions questions--Why not--dont you realize that with Dizneyland Wizadry all of our cemetaries are in danger of being converted to animated illuminated 24-7 three ringed circuses--??? Of course,you idiot,why do you think i'm having myself buried in the vertical position??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beardrech Posted January 26, 2004 Report Share Posted January 26, 2004 hmmmm...... It's about time to CHANGE THE SIGNATURE. Yo! TwoScrews!!! Say something OUTRAGEOUS! Tia. hurf Isn.t it a notorious fact that at the height of the festivities held during an Irish wake the deceased returns to life--The Irish holding to the opinion that death is a charade with nothing behind it?? beardrech I have this Irish wife--to whom i occasionaly announce that I feel as if my passing was imminent--to which she invariably replies with that portentous Irish tragedy laden sensibility:"So what"----which is the reason i arise evry morning, spitefully shouting to my wife's chagrine, with Frankensteinian gleee--"I'm alive-I'm alive"--Death where is the tingalingaling??? death where is thy stingalingaling??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rayok Posted January 26, 2004 Report Share Posted January 26, 2004 Don Coxe Great commentary! Four stars! A must listen! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beardrech Posted January 26, 2004 Report Share Posted January 26, 2004 Hyper, Watching the movie Deep Impact on the tube tonight, end of the world stuff. I like your senerio better, better plot, and all the actors are doing a very good job. (of acting ) besides, no movie could do your script justice Stoolies Many of you dont realize that these are probably the best years in your life and that as soon as your bearish positions are vindicated the fun and games,as Hyper anticipates, will stop, and all of a sudden, like a miracle, all of us,within an instant's time, will have achieved adulthood --- The longer the painful wait fffor the predicted outccome, the greater the exultation; but i can assure you that within minutes of the catastrophe becoming recognizable tro one and all ,no matter how fast or slow, you will,not having the hard heartedness necessary for ssocially immunizing yourselves from epidemic painl,be opening your purses and wallets for your neighbors sake-- You've really got to be a battler hardened sonofabitch to dismiss your nabors agony--i dont mean that not one of us has this disposition,i mean most of us--Right now its fun anticipating our predictions of things to come but when it does..... beardrech :cry: Whats it going to b like waking up to a world resembling a martian landscape???--I mean a real one here on earth not the phony one that NASA reports-- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
On The Beach Posted January 26, 2004 Report Share Posted January 26, 2004 Humor Good.Fighting Bad. Is this easy or what? Off for a run on the beach on a beautiful morning. PASS-A-GRILLE...FL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 26, 2004 Report Share Posted January 26, 2004 Stoolies Many of you dont realize that these are probably the best years in your life and that as soon as your bearish positions are vindicated the fun and games,as Hyper anticipates, will stop, and all of a sudden, like a miracle, all of us,within an instant's time, will have achieved adulthood --- The longer the painful wait fffor the predicted outccome, the greater the exultation; but i can assure you that within minutes of the catastrophe becoming recognizable tro one and all ,no matter how fast or slow, you will,not having the hard heartedness necessary for ssocially immunizing yourselves from epidemic painl,be opening your purses and wallets for your neighbors sake-- You've really got to be a battler hardened sonofabitch to dismiss your nabors agony--i dont mean that not one of us has this disposition,i mean most of us--Right now its fun anticipating our predictions of things to come but when it does..... beardrech :cry: Whats it going to b like waking up to a world resembling a martian landscape???--I mean a real one here on earth not the phony one that NASA reports-- What a wise observation! Truly a deep moral dilemna for us all! When we fail to be concerned about our neighbor(s) wellbeing, the downfall of society as we know it is a certainty. The "I", "Me" Mine" society is in ascendancy. I weep for the future of mankind. Sherlock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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