aussiebear Posted January 26, 2009 Report Posted January 26, 2009 Closed Closed Closed Closed Closed http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices
aussiebear Posted January 26, 2009 Author Report Posted January 26, 2009 http://money.cnn.com/markets/morning_call/ http://www.kitco.com http://www.kitconet.com/webcharts/base_metals.html Energy futures
aussiebear Posted January 26, 2009 Author Report Posted January 26, 2009 Doing the northward run today with All Ords +2.2%. The Miners are out in front, +5.2%, the Gold sector is doing well, +5%, Materials +4.6% and Energy +2.2%. There's no red sectors but Consumer Discretionary and Consumer Staples are up the least, both +0.1%.
aussiebear Posted January 27, 2009 Author Report Posted January 27, 2009 Australian Hedge Funds Plunge by Record 18% in 2008 Amid Rout Jan. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Australian hedge funds dropped a record 18 percent in 2008 as the global market rout forced investor withdrawals and prompted regulators to ban short-selling of shares, according to Australian Fund Monitors. The slide by the AFM Hedge Fund Index, which tracks the performance of 214 hedge funds managed from Australia, compared with a 41 percent slump by Australia?s benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index, a report by the Sydney-based industry researcher showed. ?Undoubtedly, one of the most dramatic issues facing the industry during the year over and above the unprecedented volatility was the short-selling ban that was implemented pretty much around the globe at the height of the market chaos in September,? AFM said in a report. ?What was frustrating was the level of criticism of short-selling as a scapegoat for poor management decisions in the banking and corporate sector.? -------------------- Australian Business Confidence Rises From Record Low Jan. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Australian business confidence rose in December from a record low as a government stimulus package and the most aggressive interest-rate cuts since the last recession in 1991 buoyed consumer spending. The sentiment index climbed 10 points to minus 20 from November, according to a National Australia Bank Ltd. survey of more than 400 companies released in Sydney today. A negative reading means pessimists outnumber optimists.
aussiebear Posted January 27, 2009 Author Report Posted January 27, 2009 Mish's specific complaint was about Schiff's published comments that the Chinesse economy would grow without pause for decades to come and that the stock markets there were immune to any downturn in the USA markets. On those predictions for 2008, Schiff was wrong and that was Mish's point. Mmm yes, well ok although I cannot recall Schiff saying the Chinese economy would "grow without pause". The quote on Mish's site is "I'm rather fond of the word decoupling, in fact, because it fits two of my favorite analogies. The first is that America is no longer the engine of economic growth but the caboose. [The second] When China divorces us, the Chinese will keep 100% of their property and their factories, use their products themselves, and enjoy a dramatically improved lifestyle." So maybe Schiff's timing is a little off but I think he'll be right in the longer term...
cwd Posted January 27, 2009 Report Posted January 27, 2009 Mmm yes, well ok although I cannot recall Schiff saying the Chinese economy would "grow without pause". The quote on Mish's site is "I'm rather fond of the word decoupling, in fact, because it fits two of my favorite analogies. The first is that America is no longer the engine of economic growth but the caboose. [The second] When China divorces us, the Chinese will keep 100% of their property and their factories, use their products themselves, and enjoy a dramatically improved lifestyle." So maybe Schiff's timing is a little off but I think he'll be right in the longer term... They already have the factories and the ability to operate them. I would think it is a matter of time until they start using an increasing share of the output for their own use. Just the opposite is true here. The factories and the jobs are gone except for the printing press.
POTUS Posted January 27, 2009 Report Posted January 27, 2009 I'm no big fan of either Mish or Schiff. I think the real story here is the PUBLIC pummelling of Schiff by Mish. No one in the investment business gets it right all the time, not Schiff, not Mish. Mish should prepare for payback time, because its coming. As far as China is concerned. Bush was the last President of the American Century. We have entered the Chinese Century.
aussiebear Posted January 27, 2009 Author Report Posted January 27, 2009 Okaaay, a pretty good rise but today's action is looking like a rising wedge on the 5-day chart. All Ords closed +2.8% with the Gold sector leading the way, +6.6%, Miners +6.5%, Materials +5.9% and Energy +3.1%. There were no red sectors and Utilities rose the least, +1%. A major day for the miners: BHP +6.7%, RIO +10.9% and in the golds, Newcrest +8.4%, Newmont +6.6% and Lihir +3.8%. Solid gains for the oils: Woodside +4.5%, Santos +4.2% and Caltex +3.3%. Most of Asia is still closed for Chinese New Year. Nikkers did a big run, +4.9% and India is currently +3.2%. Over to UK/Europe: http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe
ChickenLittle Posted January 27, 2009 Report Posted January 27, 2009 There is only ONE THING that matters for the next couple of days - that the 2yr and 5 yr teasury auctions go off well. All other games will be managed to ensure this . Stocks cannot rise too much - we are in a DEFLATION. Gold must pull back after its irrational rise - we are in a DEFALTION In a DEFALTION - the smart asian and arab buys what? Treasuries.
Lemur Posted January 27, 2009 Report Posted January 27, 2009 Interesting comments on UK banks with knock on effects... http://www.jsmineset.com/wp-content/upload.../bwam012609.pdf On the other hand, nowhere in the major developed world are the problems more complex and potentially out of the government?s control as the UK. Virtually all of the ills hitting the US today are similar in the UK (massive debt build up, real estate bubble, income and employment collapse). But, on top of that, the UK shoulders an incredible share of the global banking crisis. Roughly speaking, the US and UK banking systems are about the same size in dollar terms, but the economy and government?s ability to absorb the losses are of radically different sizes. Our extremely rough estimates of aggregate banking system losses in the US are $1.8 trln compared with about $1.9 trln in UK banks. These losses are proving extremely hard to bear in the US, and if they are close to right (i.e. unless there is a rapid recovery we expect they will prove close to right) they would appear near impossible for the UK to bear. If these types of losses come to pass, the possibility needs to be considered that the UK, due to pressure on both the currency and gilt markets, will begin to back away from some of its guarantees of the major global institutions in its midst. This would likely create further global financial chaos as other governments would have to step in to fill the void in some manner because the British banks are likely too big to fail globally, but also too big to save domestically.
roxy Posted January 27, 2009 Report Posted January 27, 2009 I'm no big fan of either Mish or Schiff. I think the real story here is the PUBLIC pummelling of Schiff by Mish. No one in the investment business gets it right all the time, not Schiff, not Mish. Mish should prepare for payback time, because its coming. As far as China is concerned. Bush was the last President of the American Century. We have entered the Chinese Century. In late 1980s everyone in the world talked about the new Japanese Century. At the speed Japan was growing it was only few years away from becoming the economy #1.
DrStool Posted January 27, 2009 Report Posted January 27, 2009 http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2009/01/27/p...update-12609-2/
roxy Posted January 27, 2009 Report Posted January 27, 2009 In late 1980s everyone in the world talked about the new Japanese Century. At the speed Japan was growing it was only few years away from becoming the economy #1. Extrapolating current trends into infinity is the most common mistake of the human brain. Properly extrapolated DOW would be $36k by now.
Cassiopeia Posted January 27, 2009 Report Posted January 27, 2009 Multi-day chort swing on Nasdog Futures, 1200 to 1210. A test of Jan 22nd futures high if you will. Only entering short near those levels. http://charts.barchart.com/chart.asp?sym=NDH9
DrStool Posted January 27, 2009 Report Posted January 27, 2009 The trading range of the past few months has been one of the most difficult environments to call that I have seen, in regard to the intermediate swings. It's a range until it isn't, and trying to swing trade within the range is like putting your fingers in a meat grinder.
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.