Is This......."it"? Are We On The Precipice? HRFF can't put his CLAW on it, BUTT...
#1
Posted 29 January 2003 - 03:33 AM
In the UK giant insurers are under enormous pressure to liquidate equities to maintain solvency requirements. And it's the INSURERS who gots da MONEY, HONEY. It's SNOT just BIG money, it's HUGE money. Them and those PENSION FUNDS, which in Tokyo are under enormous pressure to sell and ironically beFUR the IDES OF MARCH, too, AND when the Nikkei is ALREADY AT 20 YEAR LOWS. If the Nikkei falls at the rate it did tonite, it will be at 1985 levels in oh, about 8 trading daze!
Just LOOK at THIS:
http://finance.yahoo...my&l=on&z=m&q=l
The BARE thinks we've reached the HUMPTY DUMPTY EPIPHANY stage, well, ALMOST (unless Magoo can do a ROBERTA FLAK routine and indulge in that now widely anticipated Magoo "PUTz" of "Do it to me one more time! Once is NEVER enough with a guy like you!")
No WONDER WWIII is about to start. Thanks, of course, to the people in the White House. (The D's wouldn't have had the CHUTZPAH to do THAT sort of thing, HRFF will wager.) The Shrub is going to "make the world safe FUR democracy" by making everyone UNSAFE ass can be, FURst. Makes sense, wot?
And there was a global INTERNET "bug" FUR the FURst time HRFF can recall. Now, isn't that PURE COINCIDENCE?
Butt it'SNOT the EXTERNALITIES that The BARE finds so disquieting, or the putative blame being placed upon them, generally, and the looming conflict in particular, butt, rather, the pricing action, globally, very recently. We may, FINALLY, be approaching that dreadful and, pardon the parlance, 'long' anticipated denoument where systemic self-delusion, fantasy, hope and desire collide at light speed with REALITY.
emphasis upon "MAY" of course.
We've a seemingly boundless genius for dodging bullets via artifice in myriad manifestation(s).
Think bullet dodging will work in the Mideast in a month or two?
"In any case, experience shows people are unlikely to change their ways without a cataclysm of existential proportions" Meinhard Meigel, German economist and demography expert on his prophecy of a Wagnerian abyss of social and economic chaos
"We believe that here is no easy way out of this mess, and that the chance of a benign outcome, while hopefully possible, is quite low." Comstock Partners 3-17-2005
"Not without a shudder may the human hand reach into the mysterious urn of destiny." Junk email promoting the sale of Valium, Viagra, Soma and Cialis. Of course, we AMERICANS need not WORRY about such CLAPTRAP!!!
"The trouble about myths, or lies, is that those who foster them are stuck with them." Edward Crankshaw
"I don't buy the idea that a crash will come without warning. There are always warnings. All crashes have certain common technical preconditions." Doc (snorjt)
"YOU look IMPORTANT. Are you important, or just....WEIRD?"
"Bob I am" at a political gathering, to HRFF, 9-29-04
"Are YOU C.I.A.???"
"No, I'm not "CIA"."
"Well, you sure LOOK LIKE you're C.I.A.!!!"
Lead singer of the rock band KISS to HRFF at a luggage carousel at SeaTac airport circa 1996
"Unlike you, I use words people can understand." Doc
"America at the moment, with its faith-based currency, faith-based economy and faith-based government, might be a heaven for those who love faith, but it's a hell for those of us that respect evidence." The Daily (W?)Reckoning, circa 9-17-04
"What should be clear at this point is that even huge fiscal stimulus and unprecedented financial excess are incapable of fostering a sound and self-sustaining economic expansion. The paramount issue, today and going forward, is the deeply maladjusted U.S. economy and its increasing unresponsiveness to even enormous yet misdirected financial stimulus. Both the Financial Sphere and Economic Sphere are severely maladjusted." Doug Noland's Credit Bubble Bulletin, Aug 24 '04
"U.S. dollar purchasing power relies almost entirely on the difference between interest rates in Japan and the higher rates in the United States." Warren Pollock, Prudent Bear essay circa 9-04
"What about your replacements? the Children. What do we tell them when the whole thing caves in?" HyperTiger
#2
Posted 29 January 2003 - 05:25 AM
btw-- SPX futures -19.68 right now, NASDAQ -21.90
Open's gonna be nasty tomorrow. Gap and go?
They say the danger's gone away.
But I can see the fires, still alight,
they're burning into the night." - Genesis, Land of Confusion
#3
Posted 29 January 2003 - 06:12 AM
IF there would be a crash right now, the collapse of LTCM would be comapred to it a tiny event.
The insurers in germany in fact own the country, more or less. Munich Re and Allianz own ONE THIRD of all german shares, imagine that! There is no concrete producer, no auto maker, no media firm, no pharam giant, no food producer from which those mentioned insurer doesnt own shares.
Now look at the charts of the insurers and bear in mind they are still loaded with stocks, and now bear in mind that they have to pay a premium for those life insurances and so on...................... i dont go further, it would be too ugly.
a note to DAX:
in september when the daily RSI first time went belwo 30 DAX was at 3000, then the RSI did meander at the 30 level and the final low for DAX was 2520. Now RSI is around the 30 level, we are at 2600 right now............................
#4 Guest_yobob1_*
Posted 29 January 2003 - 07:27 AM
There's a certain mood of fatalism evident. Perhaps this is all related to our president's rather ambitious goals, but I get the sense that this isn't all of it. Global climate change is becoming more and more evident. Mostly we see negative effects, but there are currently a few regions benefitting in some ways. The current financial meltdown is obviously weighing on minds in many places. Even with all of that, there still seems to be some other factor at work here. I know I have felt this gnawing something working on my psyche for the last several months. What ever is bugging me isn't going away and seems to loom ominously closer as time goes on. It's either so huge and still a ways off as to be almost unimagineable, or it's pretty damn big and right on top of us. I can't get a handle on timing or what quarter to suspect.
#5
Posted 29 January 2003 - 09:23 AM
????
Bare, there was one 6 months ago or so that took out at least 7 of the 13 root Internet servers. One more and it would have dumped most of the net entirely. This one only took out 5.
The very first 'worm' actually did take out the internet in it's fledgling days. It was an experiment that got out of the 'lab' so to speak with unintended consequences........ Good thing that can't happen anymore.
As to your and Yobob's premonitionary feelings..... You know that feeling when you were a kid and you were getting ready to watch a scary movie? That never goes away now.
#6
Posted 29 January 2003 - 09:44 AM
Uncle Al's punchbowl (which he had carried along with him) was sent to the bar to be filled with sangria. He had a great time goofing with the girls whilst ladling out multiple refills from his 'Big Dipper.'
"See? I'm not taking away the punchbowl! Ha ha ha!" The girls tittered politely, sensing from the deference of subordinates that the old fellow was a big cheese.
But soon it was time to get down to business around the dimly-lighted cocktail table. After defeating a motion from Ben Bernanke to slash the Fed funds rate to zero, and a second motion to just flip a coin ("Heads we win, tails they lose, ha ha ha"), all eyes turned to Uncle Al. They respect his Machiavellian wiliness in negotiating the political jungle.
"We can't cut tomorrow just to bail out the chimp, er, chump. It's too crudely political, and there would be hell to pay when the Demonrats take over again. BUT -- if the flash GDP comes out Friday with a lousy zero handle (don't even mention a minus sign), we will look like fools for not giving the market another jolt of juice from the punchbowl."
Turning to Bernanke, Uncle Al instructed, "Ben, get on the horn to the new guy Snow tomorrow morning. Tell him I'll stand pat to back on him up on his 'strong dollar' fool's errand, but both of us need a decent GDP number from Commerce on Friday. We propose 1.4%."
"Right, Chief. But what about the printing presses ...." Bernanke's voice trailed off as 'Pamela' dipped an ample appendage about 3 inches from his nose.
As we speak, Bernanke's making his pitch to the Snowman. We'll find out at 2:15 p.m. if Commerce bought in. Which gives a clue to Friday's number ... hmmm, wonder what the economy's REALLY doing? Oh, sorry, I forgot, that's classified for security reasons. Ask Tom Ridge.
"Dollahs -- fire-starters for the K-wave winter." - Drano
"Three humps and a dump." - anotherone, 21 SEP 2004
"No gold was harmed in the making of this movie." - Bizarro Greenspan
[i]"Da Track. Da place where Morons bet on Animals Controlled by Criminals." - our jickiss
#9
Posted 29 January 2003 - 02:51 PM
Yes, I find it hard to believe, after looking at the evidence that even the people here hold out hope... It's over and that weird feeling ya got is your gut tring to wake you all up... The United States is finished... the speech last night was 100% make believe a fairy tale... none of that stuff will help or happen except the War on Terrorism part. It doesn't matter who phones who... The point of no return was reached decades ago and the Population of the US has been vegetablized, divided, conquered and individualized, There is no way the US can recover from the present situation unless the population realizes that the Political "establishment" Democrats and Republicans are 100% corrupted and dysfunctional... You can vote or not vote the outcome will be the same... Oblivion.
It's game over... all thats left is to see how it plays out... which will be unimagineablly ugly I'm afraid to say...
mass unemployment, mass starvation, outbreaks of diease on a grand scale, Martial law... This is the direction we have been headed for years and I see no way to stop it now, 10 years ago maybe.
All that is left is for another terrorist attack bigger then 9-11 to silence the critics and stampede the rest of the braindead deluded lemmings off the cliff and into the lake of eternal fire...
I doubt there will be elections in 2004...
Even the best case senario that I can imagine is unimagineable but far better than the middle of the road stuff I talk about...
Every week 100,000 people are flushed from Unemployment benifits... That is a billion dollars or more of economic activity wiped out/week... Hyperdeflation is so close now that it ain't funny. everyone and everything will be blamed except the FED of course, because no one understands or comprehends it's function.
Money/debt = Power
The FED "owns" the money/debt supply.
The FED is the Power.
Everyone controled by the "Power" including Al Green is just a "hired hand" or dupe...
Here's a slight hint... The deflationary shockwave that is about to be unleashed is a symptom of Compound interest charged on money/debt created out of thin air... Deflation is not the "cause" of compound interest it is the "effect" hint hint...
compound happiness leads to compound dispair... or Depression it always has and always will.
That is the Power of the FED, deflation is just "consolidation of power"
Nobody gives a flying f anymore...and those that do, don't know what to give a flying f about, It's over. prepare to be sick... 15-20 months at best to stock up on gravol and barf bags...
#10
Posted 29 January 2003 - 10:01 PM
The former FED FOOL Binder, who I happened to see in one of those rare moments I can tolerate Crapvision, stated if oil prices keep rising the FEED would have to loosen its policies to offset the negative effects of oil.
SO they have low interest rates because of "low" inflation but if inflation increases the want to lower them more. And these fools control our money supply.
#12
Posted 30 January 2003 - 02:41 AM
fxfox, on Jan 29 2003, 05:12 AM, said:
Another thing to keep in mind is that the market (S&P 500) are near a point where those (vast majority) who jumped into the last great bull market (1995 or so) are at near break-even. When their financial statements begin to show net losses, the flight from equities will accelerate. Don't think that isn't on the mind of the manipulators.
#13
Posted 30 January 2003 - 03:21 AM
I concur 100%...
I had a 92 year old amazing woman who I had the priveledge of her adopting me as her 3'rd grandson.. she used to tell me "I am ready to die" she had lived her life to the fullest, was a loving great person and knew her time to depart was soon.
...Guess what.. she died with dignity and grace knowing it was her time. Amazing lady.. full of humor and life to her final day.
She often commented on the materialism and decay of society.. with her amazing common sense found from her 12 years of schooling, she was the most up front and intelligent person I have ever met. Funny and loveable, but no baloney, no fluff.. told it like it is. (MASSIVE integrity)
Did you ever see an elderly person who was ready to die telling their younger relatives.. "it is my time to die" and the younger relatives say.. "no Granpa, you are going to be fine..." ...They don't have the integrity to face the truth and say goobye...
Here we are.. time to die and be re-born (in an economic sense) and all we hear are G.W. and company saying we are in a "recovery".
...Truth centered people know otherwise.
Say goodbye to the economy as we know it and prepare for the new reality.
...All My Best to Stoolieville... Kevin
#14
Posted 30 January 2003 - 04:26 AM
Hyper's assertions seem more and more plausible all the time...
#15
Posted 30 January 2003 - 05:09 AM
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