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Absolute Power Corrupts, And Also Turns On Itself 1/28/03
Now it's President Hoover's turn. Doc began calling him that in these pages the day after he lost the election and became President. Not the first time a loser became President, that's for sure. I mean, you'd have to be one to even want the job. Fortunately in this country we have a whole bunch of losers who want to be President. Or at least who want to give the loser who's President, a hard time. We call these people Senators and Congressmen. We are fortunate because the other losers give the chief loser such a hard time, that not too much gets done. The loser in charge can't do too much damage with his addle brained big ideas, like giving ever greater tax cuts while a bloated budget soars out of control. It used to be tax and spend. Now it's, cut taxes, borrow and spend. Who cares if the next generation won't be able to pay it back? It'll be the Democrats problem anyway.
Doc has some more thoughts about someone who does hold absolute power, or did. His name is Al. Read more in tonight's Anals.
As always, Doc also chronicles the cycles in the usual intraday, short term, and intermediate outlook and tells us where this shipwreck is heading, with hot pictures of naked stock charts, Uncle Buck and the Golden Stool. Now there's a real bull market.
If you're not a stoolie already, become one Now! And don't forget to join Doc during the market day in Stooltrading Beta as he plots the market's twists and turns for you, in advance yet!
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Absolute Power Corrupts, And Also Turns On Itself
Instead of the speech, read this!
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#2
DogBoy 
- Master of Stock Proctology
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- Group: Banned
- Posts: 1,584
- Joined: 15-March 02
Posted 28 January 2003 - 09:40 PM
In a wierd sense I'm grateful for Dubya being Prez.
He's kinda like a goofy kid I played with when I was 10 who did things like blow up little animals up with M80's and try to build grandiose tree houses that were just impossible to build.
One day he tried to carry a huge board to the top of the tree and he fell on his head. I ran like hell to get his mother. He had a severe concussion.
Some people are just "like that" --- they throw caution to the wind. They're risk takers, well dumbass risk takers, but risk takers nonetheless.
Sometimes in history you need people like that to create a real crisis and trigger a massive capitulation.
Dubya will get us to the bottom of the Bear Market 4 times faster than Gore would have. And that's not a bad thing in my book.
Of course the dollar will be completely worthless and the Dow will be sitting at 1500 but will get there real quick anyway.
Decades from now people will hail him for destroying the world's greatest economy faster than anyone could have imagined in their wildest dreams.
When it comes right down to it, if Dubya didn't exist they'd have to invent him. He's a perfect compliment to the times and society we live in.
And I wouldn't even begin to lay blame on him because he in all likliehood really believes in what he says and does. And if he didn't take US down then someone else would -- it was "meant to be".
As a Bear and a Gold Bull I say "Hail to the Chief".
Just Do It Baby !!!
He's kinda like a goofy kid I played with when I was 10 who did things like blow up little animals up with M80's and try to build grandiose tree houses that were just impossible to build.
One day he tried to carry a huge board to the top of the tree and he fell on his head. I ran like hell to get his mother. He had a severe concussion.
Some people are just "like that" --- they throw caution to the wind. They're risk takers, well dumbass risk takers, but risk takers nonetheless.
Sometimes in history you need people like that to create a real crisis and trigger a massive capitulation.
Dubya will get us to the bottom of the Bear Market 4 times faster than Gore would have. And that's not a bad thing in my book.
Of course the dollar will be completely worthless and the Dow will be sitting at 1500 but will get there real quick anyway.
Decades from now people will hail him for destroying the world's greatest economy faster than anyone could have imagined in their wildest dreams.
When it comes right down to it, if Dubya didn't exist they'd have to invent him. He's a perfect compliment to the times and society we live in.
And I wouldn't even begin to lay blame on him because he in all likliehood really believes in what he says and does. And if he didn't take US down then someone else would -- it was "meant to be".
As a Bear and a Gold Bull I say "Hail to the Chief".
Just Do It Baby !!!
#4
Yoshaviah
- Assistant Professor of Stock Proctology
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- Group: Members
- Posts: 3,309
- Joined: 26-November 01
Posted 29 January 2003 - 01:52 AM
"There is no way to know what level will be reached at the final low of this cycle. It should be at least 50-60, and possibly much higher in a worst case scenario." - Ol' Doc Stool.
Mabe there is a way to tell at least where da VIX is goin' - compare it to the gold price over the past 6 months.
20% higher and the VIX will hit the gold price on the 6 month chart. Looks like 50 - 56 is in the bag.
Mabe there is a way to tell at least where da VIX is goin' - compare it to the gold price over the past 6 months.
20% higher and the VIX will hit the gold price on the 6 month chart. Looks like 50 - 56 is in the bag.
#6
- Group: Guests
Posted 29 January 2003 - 02:42 AM
DogBoy, on Jan 28 2003, 08:40 PM, said:
. . . And I wouldn't even begin to lay blame on him because he in all likliehood really believes in what he says and does. . . .
Great post Dogboy. I do disagree with this statement. I really don't think he has any idea what he is saying and is doing what he is told to do by the people who plucked him out of relative obscurity to front their agenda.
One other thing, while you were discribing the character profile I was thinking "this sounds like a Kennedy."
#7
DogBoy
- Master of Stock Proctology
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- Group: Banned
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- Joined: 15-March 02
Posted 29 January 2003 - 03:28 AM
""this sounds like a Kennedy." "
Do the Cuban Missile Crisis or the Bay of Pigs bring anything to mind ?
But I do stick by my assertion that GWB truly thinks that he is doing "good" for mankind and that thru war he'll create a new world which will be peaceful.
He's a "True Believer" in my opinion. That's why he sounds so strident and sure of himself.
In the anals of history it'll more than likely be written as one last gasp of a very great and powerful empire. Unfortunately for the US a gasp that occurs at a very inopportune time --- during a period of severe financial weakness and vulnerability.
A well intentioned plan but at the wrong time.
Had this same set of circumstances been present in say 1998 the US probably would have conquered the ME and had the entire world under it's thumb.
The more I hear about Clinton's ambitions (similar to those of GWB) the more I'm convinced that Monica Lewinsky may have played an even far greater role in the course of history than anybody can imagine.
Had Clinton attacked Iraq in '98 it would have been a extremely successful outcome and cheap Oil would have flowed as far as the eye could see.
And those hefty stock valuations would have been somewhat justified because of the even greater pre-eminence of US power in the world.
Today the charts are strongly against a positive outcome. It won't happen in my view.
I believe in Technical Analysis and also believe it can be used to chart not only stock prices but the futures of nations and world politics as well.
Financially speaking the S&P and the Dowager ARE the United States. They represent the wealth and importance of US companies which is extended thruout the world.
The companies in the DOW and S&P are what makes the US the most powerful nation on earth.
I think you can clearly chart the course of the US as a world power thru the DOW and S&P as well as the USD chart.
TA confirms and leads fundamentals. That said the long term downtrend in US stocks and the USD chart are a real bad portent for the ambitious plans of GWB.
Any decent adviser would tell GWB to wait until the charts turn up and repair get the US financial house back in order before embarking on these plans.
Fortunately for FDR the worst had passed financially when the world was threatened with Hitler and had to go to war. Long term trends had turned up.
In WWII the US was fighting with the wind behind it's back chart-wise.
As for the current impending conflict the timing is not only poor it's downright disastrous.
The wind is blowing right in our face and it'll likely reach hurricane strength before it's over.
It's hard to conquer whole regions with a headwind like this.
Do the Cuban Missile Crisis or the Bay of Pigs bring anything to mind ?
But I do stick by my assertion that GWB truly thinks that he is doing "good" for mankind and that thru war he'll create a new world which will be peaceful.
He's a "True Believer" in my opinion. That's why he sounds so strident and sure of himself.
In the anals of history it'll more than likely be written as one last gasp of a very great and powerful empire. Unfortunately for the US a gasp that occurs at a very inopportune time --- during a period of severe financial weakness and vulnerability.
A well intentioned plan but at the wrong time.
Had this same set of circumstances been present in say 1998 the US probably would have conquered the ME and had the entire world under it's thumb.
The more I hear about Clinton's ambitions (similar to those of GWB) the more I'm convinced that Monica Lewinsky may have played an even far greater role in the course of history than anybody can imagine.
Had Clinton attacked Iraq in '98 it would have been a extremely successful outcome and cheap Oil would have flowed as far as the eye could see.
And those hefty stock valuations would have been somewhat justified because of the even greater pre-eminence of US power in the world.
Today the charts are strongly against a positive outcome. It won't happen in my view.
I believe in Technical Analysis and also believe it can be used to chart not only stock prices but the futures of nations and world politics as well.
Financially speaking the S&P and the Dowager ARE the United States. They represent the wealth and importance of US companies which is extended thruout the world.
The companies in the DOW and S&P are what makes the US the most powerful nation on earth.
I think you can clearly chart the course of the US as a world power thru the DOW and S&P as well as the USD chart.
TA confirms and leads fundamentals. That said the long term downtrend in US stocks and the USD chart are a real bad portent for the ambitious plans of GWB.
Any decent adviser would tell GWB to wait until the charts turn up and repair get the US financial house back in order before embarking on these plans.
Fortunately for FDR the worst had passed financially when the world was threatened with Hitler and had to go to war. Long term trends had turned up.
In WWII the US was fighting with the wind behind it's back chart-wise.
As for the current impending conflict the timing is not only poor it's downright disastrous.
The wind is blowing right in our face and it'll likely reach hurricane strength before it's over.
It's hard to conquer whole regions with a headwind like this.
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