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I thought Charmin would be back. Whatever! Better open this now. About to leave the office will check back later.
Weekly Digger - July 18-23, 2005
Precious Metal Conundrum
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#2
ThorAss 
- Clinical Professor of Stock Proctology
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Posted 18 July 2005 - 09:05 AM
I wonder what ever happen to the 'individual' who, at the May bottom, posted the bit about how Proctor had it right "as always" [sic] and that the POG was immediately going to $200 and Hooey to 35 or whatever. Haven't heard a bleat out of him in a couple of months.
What is the gold conundrum. The conundrum is this. How can the POG not be climbing in the face of such fundamental deterioration in the 'value' of fiat today? I'm sure I have the answer but it only begs another question. There is no real public awareness that gold is an investment that one uses to protect oneself in times of inflation. I saw an article today that said really hard times were coming when the hosing babble breaks and what to do about it. A lot of good advice was then given but what shocked me was there was not 1 mention of gold or silver or anything like that. Bonds, foreign stocks and cash if I remember correctly.
Be aggressive buy stocks, be safe buy houses, then be really safe go to cash and bonds.
The question that is begged is Why, for god's sake is their such ignorance? Can people really be herded so easily? Today we want you to buy our stocks, tomorrow our debt. We'll let you know what we need to sell next when the time comes.
Out of gold and ready to dabble on the dark side of the Broads, the short dark side that is.
Watch ya.
What is the gold conundrum. The conundrum is this. How can the POG not be climbing in the face of such fundamental deterioration in the 'value' of fiat today? I'm sure I have the answer but it only begs another question. There is no real public awareness that gold is an investment that one uses to protect oneself in times of inflation. I saw an article today that said really hard times were coming when the hosing babble breaks and what to do about it. A lot of good advice was then given but what shocked me was there was not 1 mention of gold or silver or anything like that. Bonds, foreign stocks and cash if I remember correctly.
Be aggressive buy stocks, be safe buy houses, then be really safe go to cash and bonds.
The question that is begged is Why, for god's sake is their such ignorance? Can people really be herded so easily? Today we want you to buy our stocks, tomorrow our debt. We'll let you know what we need to sell next when the time comes.
Out of gold and ready to dabble on the dark side of the Broads, the short dark side that is.
Watch ya.
I have many opinions; but I strive not to act on them.
#3
AgentSmith
- Master of Stock Proctology
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Posted 18 July 2005 - 10:02 AM
I'm 'all in' minus $1500 (no margin), haha. A bit uncomfortable with soo much negativity towards PMs. I'm up on DROOY, CBJ, QEE [for now]; breakeven/slightly up on AGT, EGO; down on GBN.
#4
plantigrade
- Bachelor of Stock Proctology
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Posted 18 July 2005 - 11:00 AM
#5
ThorAss
- Clinical Professor of Stock Proctology
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Posted 18 July 2005 - 11:17 AM
Finished my quick flirt with the broads. Missed the manic melt-up in one. Not sorry about that as my flirting was purely from the dark unseemly short side. Never even knew their names. Better that way. Two were wearing gold but they didn't do anything for me. Not really a safe way for a bear to entertain hisself.
Pinpoint????
Pinpoint????
I have many opinions; but I strive not to act on them.
#6
- Group: Guests
Posted 18 July 2005 - 11:44 AM
fwiw, i agree w/you thor. the public is not aware of the pms as an alternative. in the latter stages of the 80s bull, gold was the anchor man. at the end of the news they would give the price of gold and the change on the day. as long as it basks in anonimity, we are ok.
it seems this is the bounce that i was looking for. then another down. should finish before months end. But , i am not looking @ time. this correction has already shaken quite a few bulls resolve. dharma
it seems this is the bounce that i was looking for. then another down. should finish before months end. But , i am not looking @ time. this correction has already shaken quite a few bulls resolve. dharma
#7
ThorAss
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Posted 18 July 2005 - 11:54 AM
dharma, on Jul 18 2005, 10:44 PM, said:
fwiw, i agree w/you thor. the public is not aware of the pms as an alternative. in the latter stages of the 80s bull, gold was the anchor man. at the end of the news they would give the price of gold and the change on the day. as long as it basks in anonimity, we are ok.
it seems this is the bounce that i was looking for. then another down. should finish before months end. But , i am not looking @ time. this correction has already shaken quite a few bulls resolve. dharma
it seems this is the bounce that i was looking for. then another down. should finish before months end. But , i am not looking @ time. this correction has already shaken quite a few bulls resolve. dharma
Thanks dharma, I know I've been shook.
I have many opinions; but I strive not to act on them.
#8
ThorAss
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Posted 18 July 2005 - 12:00 PM
I think there is a chance that the WhoMe? could bounce as high as 203.74 which would be a jolly good schauspiel to exuent. If we keep going up it's only a few points higher to BO terrortory if one wants back in. I really don't like that 3 peak pattern on the Hue. Lookat the previous rallies and subsequent a-oooo-gahs. 3 peaks then dump, repeat. And negative divergences abound. Look at the RSI. Not that I have any faith in divergences.
Attached image(s)
I have many opinions; but I strive not to act on them.
#10
- Group: Guests
Posted 18 July 2005 - 02:07 PM
am looking @89.63(mentioned last week) as support. if that doesnt hold then 88.34. seems to early for the bottom. but i wont complain if it is. hourly divergences forming* in a bull market divergences to the upside usually get taken out w/upside action. in a bear market the reverse is true. divergences on bottoming action get taken out. i find them very useful, especially when doing a wave count, as a wave 3 is the most powerful. then from there one can get his bearings. Probably not as potent as the north star to a sailor dharma
#11
- Group: Guests
Posted 18 July 2005 - 03:43 PM
The bottom line is the HUI/gold ratio just flashed a major buy signal this week, only the fourth in this powerful bull to date. Each of the previous buy signals has heralded a major new upleg in gold stocks. In addition, the conservative lagging nature of these buy signals has always manifested itself in the past with them triggering after a major interim bottom was carved, probably the ugly May lows this time around.
Probabilities now strongly suggest that gold stocks ought to continue to outperform gold in the months ahead, and I am really excited to see how this all plays out.
http://www.zealllc.c...05/huigold2.htm dharma
another exciting day!
Probabilities now strongly suggest that gold stocks ought to continue to outperform gold in the months ahead, and I am really excited to see how this all plays out.
http://www.zealllc.c...05/huigold2.htm dharma
another exciting day!
#12
bearvest
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Posted 18 July 2005 - 08:03 PM
XAU:
The sixty minute chart seems to show an impulse under construction.
If we do get a 5th wave down, it portends substantial weakness. After a limited correction at one higher degree of trend, we should then have another wave down--either a C or a 3.
Edit:
Geez. Do I have to criticize my own chart?
O.K. Here's what's wrong. Wave 4 is not complete. Don't speculate on the labelling. Without confirmation, label to the right on the chart. Wave 4 is too far short of appropriate fib retracements. Even a modest 23.6% would exceed the current level. How about that gap at 91.10 to 91.22? A modest 38.2% retrace would fill it.
Finally, wave 4's tend to be complex and protracted. This one day move has no significant alternation to wave 2. Whether we're in a simple 3rd wave or a iii of 3 extension, we'll have to tolerate this consolidation and the corrective pattern that follows to go short
The sixty minute chart seems to show an impulse under construction.
If we do get a 5th wave down, it portends substantial weakness. After a limited correction at one higher degree of trend, we should then have another wave down--either a C or a 3.
Edit:
Geez. Do I have to criticize my own chart?
O.K. Here's what's wrong. Wave 4 is not complete. Don't speculate on the labelling. Without confirmation, label to the right on the chart. Wave 4 is too far short of appropriate fib retracements. Even a modest 23.6% would exceed the current level. How about that gap at 91.10 to 91.22? A modest 38.2% retrace would fill it.
Finally, wave 4's tend to be complex and protracted. This one day move has no significant alternation to wave 2. Whether we're in a simple 3rd wave or a iii of 3 extension, we'll have to tolerate this consolidation and the corrective pattern that follows to go short
Attached image(s)
Make dust, or you'll be left in the dust of others.
#13
ThorAss
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Posted 19 July 2005 - 10:38 AM
The PMS conundrum continues. First of all, where is all? Second, $HUI makes an IT neckline break and a 20/10 bearish EMA cross-over. As good a sell signal as you're likely to get. Then what happens? The buyers step in and push it straight up. Was that the Zow 89 support line I heard? And the buyers are obviously in attendance witnessed by SAs 50 cent move up yesturdday. Well if the last move up was questionabull and the move down is suspect why should we suddenly believe this move up? Bull horn baloney. Usually ends up going down. But if 203.74 should show up might be a good place to lighten up.
Attached image(s)
I have many opinions; but I strive not to act on them.
