Jump to content

Weekly Digger - July 18-23, 2005

Recommended Posts

Well as I see it, it's the mid to late July BS spike down before taking off as it does every year. Went back in but unfortunately chose as one of my vehicles KRY which got a haircut and ended up losing money even with the indices rallying. That's life in the PMS suctor. Eventually sold it all near the close.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 81
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Long Count:


Yes, Ander's got my count right.


Since December, 2003, we've been in a wave 2 correction.


It is not a simple zig-zag ABC, because the count should be 5-3-5.


The blue A wave is only a 3 wave affair.


The pattern to my eyes is a flat. It counts 3-3-5, with the B wave retracing close to the entire A wave.


The C wave has 4 of the required 5 waves in---abcd---.Wave e should be an impulse down.


My near term count is that we've completed wave 1 of e, and this is wave 2 of e.


My near term count will be wrong if we rally from here, and it may throw doubt on my longer term count which should be a 5 wave C (possible ending diagonal to create MACD divergence).



Link to comment
Share on other sites

Thanks Bear so you are in the 120-150 HUI correction camp unless we clear what number exactly?


If we take out 206.87, I must revise my count.


The "flat" calls for the C wave to retrace to about the end of the A wave. It often throws over slightly.


I'm looking for a bottom at 155-163. If you extend the chart back, major support should be at about 155--former resistance, while shorter term support is around 163.


Link to comment
Share on other sites



I don't wish to be taken to turn bullish if we rally from here.


All it means is that I'll have to revise my count (and take a hit on my Nem puts).


The count for Gold is still quite bearish.


We've had an impulse down, an abc correction, and an impulse down of one lesser degree of trend. Two impulses have travelled alone. They always travel with a friend.


There's more downside, I suggest, after this minor degree correction plays out.


Link to comment
Share on other sites

A bit pissed off at myself for getting into a stock which a 5 second long glance at the charts would have screamed AVOID! I mean KRY, as in KRY me a river. Anyhoo, for my penitence I just spent the last long while working on my stock selection procedure. Now if you are hoping that bv is about to get out is rubber duck for bath time with his NEM Putts, then stick around. If not, come back later.



Still here? Okay, I ranked PMS stocks on a score (Max 10) based on various measures of Bullishness that I won't go into just now. If your fave stock does not appear, doesn't mean it's crap, just that it didn't score well. Just like your little Johnny isn't nearly the halfwit that his last report card shows him to be. If you would like to now how ABC, XYZ, GOOD or CRAP scored you need but axe. Still if your stock is US traded, from $0.50 and $18.00, with an average volume of 50,000 shares and doesn't appear below you might want to "trade up."


Here dey is:


8 MNG - A ThorAss pick at the bottom I might add.

7 TRE - Sinker's Pride and Joy

7 VGZ - True believers have been waiting awhile for this one to move.

6 AUY - At home in some of the best portfolios.

6 CDE - Still technically the best silver play altho funniementals suck.

6 GSS - An olde ThorAss fave.

6 HMY - What passes for quality in South Africa.

6 SA - A real rocket. Buy on fullbacks.

5 BGO - Another olde fave.

5 DEZ - A newer addition.

5 DROOY - Maybe THE geared gold stock.

5 KGC - Testament to the markets current Buy Canuckly theme.

5 PDG - And Ditto for this one which TA has never wrecked afore.




with 7 more scoring 3, only one scoring 2 and six getting just 1 point. That's 32 in total out of a possible of 47 stocks which meet the minimum height requirements. Hmmm, that's 68%, which means things are pretty darn bullish at the mooooment.


Of course don't trust any of this for timing as things are always moost bullish at the top. Better you listen to the likes of bathvest or MrHanky for that. However, if you think the time is right and gold is about to take flight then don't hold back, fill up the sack .... with high ranking PMS shares.


Partial Disclosure. I own none of these abovementioned schlocks and the one I do own wouldn't make the above list if it doubled in price tomorrow. :angry:


Keep Da Faith, Baby!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Some more comments on my snock picking.


I have a number of categories such as:


Short Term Bull

Long Term Bull

AccumDist Bull

Recovery Bull

High Range and Vol Bull



Each will have their place in the cycle so At any point I will tend to look for high scoring PMS stocks but favour only the ones from the Bull Du Jour.


Like this:


Bearish Bull:(Bull in Bear's Clothing) Buy Long Term Bull

Early Bull:(Baby Bull) Buy Short Term Bull

Mooving Bull:(Young Bull) Buy Recovery Bull

Questionable Bull:(Like now!!!) Buy High Range and Vol Bull

Stock Picker's Bull:(Hidden Bull) Buy AccumDist Bull

Real Bull:(Wave 3 Bull) Buy Momentum Bull


So at the moment buying momentum is risky as in a turn the exit might be too small to squeeze out. What you need is volume but with punch. Stocks apt to moove on the upside but with sufficient volume to allow some kind of orderly retreat.


The stocks favoured here then are CDE,GSS,HMY,BGO,DROOY,KGC,PDG.


Now go, have fun, don't worry about me. Me, you've read, already!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Belgian news flash

The belgian news reports that two witnesses allege two policeman shot five times a man who was dead immidiately in Stockwell Station London

It is alledgedly reported that the man had a very heavy coat on but no bomb was found

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Belgian news flash

The belgian news reports that two witnesses allege two policeman shot five times a man who was dead immidiately in Stockwell Station London

It is alledgedly reported that the man had a very heavy coat on but no bomb was found

He should definitely have bought a ticket. Dura lex ... :huh:


Gives a hole new meaning to the expression, FULL METAL JACKET.



oh, and trench warfare.


The terrorist would probably be laughing their asses off if they hadn't already blown them off.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

xau working off hourly overbought situation. i expect more fireworks to the upside down the road. its still july, which means seasonally weak for pms. am still expecting a banner 2nd 1/2 of year. i am using the same count as franks. many pm stocks have flag or pennant patterns which are bullish. dharma

Link to comment
Share on other sites

after years, make that decades of the metals doing nutin, investors/speculators in pm stocks have been conditioned to run at the 1st sign of a correction. that game is going to leave many stranded @the station as they start the 3 rd wave. dharma

Link to comment
Share on other sites


This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Tell a friend

    Love Stool Pigeons Wire Message Board? Tell a friend!
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
  • ×
    • Create New...