simple guy Posted February 18, 2003 Report Posted February 18, 2003 15 Billion Doc said came in today, from the Fed... unbelievable. That can prop a market or two eh? 25.30 hit at the close 415 print on QQQ... the 78.6% hysterical retrace is in. FIBO turn window is the 19th, since we are rallying INTO the turn window, next move should be down. MAX pain at 25 on Q's for scam week, and thats been surpassed nicely today... Also, appears the war is over, the economy is on fire, and bad news is now good... any news is good once that collective FART was let out by Blix... Either way... if we blow past 25.30 tomorrow... then my counts are off and who the heck knows where we end up. As usual, my neck sticks out and I dont see that happening. Staying max short still for now... See if they can come up with another 15 Billion tomorrow. Nas UP 12 POINTS in last 10 minutes... Q's up 25-30 cents last 30 minutes... gotta love it Keep your heads on...
simple guy Posted February 18, 2003 Author Report Posted February 18, 2003 Rydex Venture 100 pulling back and testing support (Q's testing resistance, same thing)... to be expected...
strikerm3 Posted February 18, 2003 Report Posted February 18, 2003 any take on the macd crossover? http://www.saavycharts.info/ its been a good indicator so far. I think its giving a short term rally signal. The last 2 setups like this were big.possibly a good set up to go short next week and turn off the monitor for the week. I didnt have as much wiggle room as you. I will just short QQQ next time(taxable account) instead of the funds. It seems less risky in certain scenarios such as fed blasts. Lot of cash on the sidelines and greed might have turned from fear for the next few days. I would have covered at open for sure. delete if you must. I thought this was important.
MrHanky Posted February 18, 2003 Report Posted February 18, 2003 sg,we closed on the 50 dma today...we closed on the 13 dma friday. we closed at these prices for a reason. do we gap up to the 200 dma now? (1420 or so i think) or reverse for options exp. still up a bit for the year...hangin on for now prepared for another blowout tomorrow which leads me to believe we go down a bit.
ArdentGuy Posted February 19, 2003 Report Posted February 19, 2003 SG....I've been following you for the last several weeks. You've been calling almost daily for the horrific 6% down day. Like you, I am sure it will come...perhaps several of them in a row. But first we have some unfinished business. As bears, we celebrated (*cheers!*) a gap-down in mid January from 1423 to 1401....and now we are going to have to pay the price. It looks like that gap will be filled. We are going to see the same action we saw in October: multiple gap-up mornings to lift the market over resistance levels. DAMN IT!!!!! The market will come back down quickly to fill this morning's gap-up (as well as any others in the coming days), but not until we've taken care of our unfinished business at 1420. I wish I had seen this coming before now. It would have been nice to avoid today's pain. So I will be checking Doc's cycles for a 1 day or 3 day low to close out my QQQ shorts and attempt a short-term long scalp to 1405. I hope we don't gap-up tomorrow so I can get out at a reasonable price. Best of luck to all.
machinehead Posted February 19, 2003 Report Posted February 19, 2003 About that $15 billion Feed ... the closure of airports by the northeastern snowstorm backed up check clearing (incredible but true - they still fly paper checks around the country). The Feed could have been to provide temporary liquidity to banks who were caught short. If so, they'll pull some of it back in the next day or two. Can you hear those check scanning machines whirring in the night?
WillytheBooh Posted February 19, 2003 Report Posted February 19, 2003 Speaking about gaps; there are your runaway gaps and your continuation gaps and your EXHAUSTION gaps...... Time will tell what we have just seen but odds favor that the lower gap of todays open gets tested before we need to worry about 1400..... I know this sounds crazy BUT I am PLEASED that we are rallying into to tomorrows reversal day... because what is a reversal of a rally...yup resumption of the downtrend. This fib window has been active since today and will be till MOnday methinks. I still see a down day tomorrow and then a retest with a final plunge into 1364 by Friday as the best this rally can do. If I am wrong I give back 50% of my profits and have to start to build up again...oh well!!! SG you have kept us on the right side of the trend and to be honest I was about .50 from MY closing PRICE FOR the QQQ's but that was not meant to be. The intermediate trend is still down and the turn windows have defined the intermediate term trends with regal accuracy the last few months. So unless all ewave indicators and fib realtionships and intermediate term bearish indicators have all decided to fail I think I will not let a 2 day rally spook me out of my short position. The chance to get out was last Wednesday having missed that I decided to wait for the few more cents this rally could hurt. I also looked at many of the individual stocks I track and surprise...half actually are going down today and the half that rallied did so right into some moving average resistance or wave limits or trend line resistances. I do not know but they are TESTING resistance for now and not one has actually broken through a ressitance as I type. So I will trust my ewave pal whose count I prefer (after all it is not vogue to follow blindly is it?) and will let time do the rest... the outcome is written in the stars and we know that this rally will fail somewhere around the planet Jump-piter and will not see the light of day till the massive gravity of the bubble slings it out to uranus. Just reminding everyone that Mr. MArket has no friends...hunts bears and bulls alike even when they are on the right side of the trend..... and then when we hit PLutos (greek for wealth) it will be time to rest and go donging the market a few months.. a rest well deserved... The honey is still in the jar folks and I am waiting for something sweet real soon Sticky business this market is WillytheBooh
sniff Posted February 19, 2003 Report Posted February 19, 2003 for the fib believers... the qubes jusy hit harmony. ( hmmmmmmm!) the intial big leg XA fib...618 @ 25.34 last secondary leg,CD bounce... .50 @ 25.39 I know some, do not follow harmonic charts .... but this chart appears to be tracking like it is supposed to.... this looks like a voodoo resistence level....... I believe it to be a major sign post for this week. So will be watching closely to see what happens..... The high * might* be in ?....
Guest Posted February 19, 2003 Report Posted February 19, 2003 Striker, you asked this question in three different threads. Since nobody has replied to you and since it seems to be important to you, I will. First, please keep in mind that the MACD is a severely lagging indicator. In bear markets, by the time it gives a Buy signal, the rally is usually over. Similarly, in bull markets, by the time it gives a Sell signal, the dip is usually over. Second, the standard MACD doesn't seem to work very well for QQQ. Try it - build a trading system based on it and you'll see that it will lose money way too often for comfort. So, while the MACD can be useful as a confirmation indicator - never rely on it alone. Regards, Vesselin
GregFokker Posted February 19, 2003 Report Posted February 19, 2003 Thanks, Vess. Your insights continue to be invaluable. You have gone to the trouble of quantifying those thoughts that are still in my own mental "trading lab", and have contributed immeasurably to my own progress.
strikerm3 Posted February 19, 2003 Report Posted February 19, 2003 Striker, you asked this question in three different threads. Since nobody has replied to you and since it seems to be important to you, I will. First, please keep in mind that the MACD is a severely lagging indicator. In bear markets, by the time it gives a Buy signal, the rally is usually over. Similarly, in bull markets, by the time it gives a Sell signal, the dip is usually over. Second, the standard MACD doesn't seem to work very well for QQQ. Try it - build a trading system based on it and you'll see that it will lose money way too often for comfort. So, while the MACD can be useful as a confirmation indicator - never rely on it alone. Regards, Vesselin thanks bont, just cant believe the bounce seems to be totally ignored? I also was short more than I should have been.
simple guy Posted February 19, 2003 Author Report Posted February 19, 2003 A few thoughts for Wednesday Morning 1. I must say I said many times over that the markets tend to keep one humble, and that I was due to screw up pretty soon... Well... I didnt really screw up so much as I missed the interim bottom by about 40-50 cents on the Q's, where I had said I was planning to cover short term. The 3rd minuette wave did 147%, instead of 161.8%... and its my fault for being so staunch waiting for 161.8%..... so, another lesson learned... because I ignored the bullish wedge, which was obvious That said... my ultimate low targets I still believe WILL be met within several weeks and at this point, I see no reason to cover. Now... should we blow through that magic 25.34 level... it just means we are correcting from the Jan 13 highs, instead of the Jan 23 highs of 25.84..... (*27.47 Jan 13 intra-day high). If that is the case, then the 25.80's are on the way. Doesnt matter... Im holding, yes... Im stubborn.... Finally... 1420 gap could be filled only if we have a hysterical 78.6% retrace of the 1470 to 1260 down leg... this I dont see... not yet. 1420 will get filled later on, but probably not until we hit some major 12 month bottoms first.... IMO Lets see what unfolds today. If we blow past 25.30... then we are correcting off the Jan 13 highs.... if not, then my count was right, and we begin 5 waves down to 20.67 to 20.87 ish.... Gann, CMAPS, E waves... TA, none are perfect.... bottom line is YTD Im still up nicely vs the market averages in a short account no less..... and its very EARLY in wave 3....
strikerm3 Posted February 19, 2003 Report Posted February 19, 2003 sorry for my ranting. It seems the elliot waves work excellent until conjestion. My mistake my was betting more than I should. I learned another lesson by watching weeks of gains evaporate in a couple trading sessions. I guess having 40K of 87 year old grandpas cash in the strategy was wrong too. I did lose 9% in his account but his longs made up half the loss. Me and my dad remain short...............I thought futures would be up alot more than they are now so maybe you hit in on the head and down we go from here. wow! I wish I didnt cover my gpa so quick but you have to have stop losses somewhere. The Plunge Protection Team seem to use some ta of their own to protect against the plunge.
simple guy Posted February 19, 2003 Author Report Posted February 19, 2003 There is no need to panic unless you are too ST focused... To wit, check it out...
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