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Toppy,sloppy or poppy?


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#1 MrHanky

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Posted 27 January 2012 - 05:00 PM

Bears getting frustrated with these endless intraday tape jams.Below ES 1306-1307 is where the bears need to take it.

Nobody gives a shit,why bother trying to help?


#2 MrHanky

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Posted 27 January 2012 - 05:03 PM

That spike at the bell was just nuts,1313 to 1317 in one second flat,monster volume spike too.....

I think it printed 1 or 2 seconds after the bell though,looks pretty fishy on that kind of volume.

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Nobody gives a shit,why bother trying to help?


#3 DrStool

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Posted 27 January 2012 - 05:07 PM

Tist. This is a tist of the emergincy boardcast systum. I still cain't load a pitcher.

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#4 DrStool

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Posted 27 January 2012 - 05:08 PM

YES I KIN!

YES I KIN!

Hollylooya!

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#5 Thales

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Posted 27 January 2012 - 05:08 PM

Bully got his dong back!


Fade Thales!


#6 shorty

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Posted 27 January 2012 - 05:08 PM

i tired ta perst this yassturday ta warn floks butt gov't hacked the stool agin
falshopers duped at 2 x 666 = 1332
nuthin; could be more clear
top is in
now reamtrace backta 1 x 666

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#7 DrStool

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Posted 27 January 2012 - 05:25 PM

I'm thinking of converting the Stuhl to a pay board with a membership fee of $5000 a month.

What do you guys think?

I'll spit it with you.

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#8 Bungster

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Posted 27 January 2012 - 05:30 PM

I'm thinking of converting the Stuhl to a pay board with a membership fee of $5000 a month.

What do you guys think?

I'll split it with you.


Double the price - you get what you pay for... :)
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#9 DrStool

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Posted 27 January 2012 - 05:37 PM

Good morning Al.

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#10 capitall

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Posted 27 January 2012 - 05:41 PM

Thinking out loud here, about recent market action.

At this point how many things have been discounted? Europe downgrade, Greek default, weak GDP, bad homesales, high gas prices. Out of the last 58 point spx rally, about 48 were AH gaps. There is no fear, option skews [in and out of money options] have major divergence.

I am wondering. If most hedge funds know all this, and are short because of it, wouldn't the Big Players like Goldman be doing a short squeeze? Because, due to absolutely logical reasons, and perhaps in addition due to use of options-related TA, everyone hedge fund is on the same side of the boat.

Options are skewed. The put/call ratio is low etc.-- These options theories assume-- just as Max Pain Theory does-- that the Big Players only sell options but never buy them. What if almost no one is long calls right now EXCEPT the Big Players? The options stats never tell you WHO is long calls or puts. Everyone just assumes that Big Players only sell, but do not buy, both the puts and the calls.

So options theories assume that the Big Players are net short both puts and calls at all times. A highly questionable assumption-- and one that has been proven wrong during certain months when Max Pain Theory has caused every trader who used it to lose their shirt, shoes, and pants. Of course, Max Pain Theory does "work" sometimes. I.e. it works about as well as a coin flip.

Once certain kinds of TA are widely accepted and used for prediction, and once certain kinds of facts or situations are logically and widely expected to cause the market to move in a certain direction-- then the market frequently moves opposite to the direction expected by TA or by logic. The Contrarian's direction, as folks were discussing earlier on the IDS board.

It may be that hedge funds are now using more of these options-related TA methods, which assume that the Big Players only sell options but never buy them. And/or they are using "logic", looking at all the hazards in the world economic system. If so, then all the huge hedge funds are now on the same side of the boat-- short. If so, then it's easy for the Big Players to tip the boat over, by doing a short squeeze on them.

Some folks say that the main determinant of market direction is whether the big hedge funds are very heavily positioned in one direction. The hedge funds are clients of the big brokerages, so those big brokerages automatically know what the hedge funds' positions are. It is said that every time the big hedge funds are very heavily trading in one direction, the big brokerages take the other/contrarian side of the trade and squeeze them.

This is something that Wndysrf pointed out repeatedly when he was here. Although he was bullish and was an obnoxious Bear Baiter until the very top of the 2007 market, and I can't blame Doc for banning him, he sometimes did make a good point. And the above was one of those points. That sometimes the market goes up because everyone is short it.

How does a person-- without inside info-- know whether or not the big hedge funds have loaded up the boat in one direction--almost all long or almost all short?

The usual assumption as to what is going on "inside" is that the Big Players are net short both puts and calls at all times. Perhaps it is time for a different assumption.

Of course, Doc's liquidity indicators tell us whether the Big Players have liquidity sloshing around in their pockets. And perhaps that is all we need to know.

Perhaps the term Max Pain should be changed and given a new meaning, LOL. Maybe it should become a term used to describe the degree of pain felt by traders who ignore liquidity considerations.

#11 Jetlag

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Posted 27 January 2012 - 05:59 PM

Test login, :lol:

I wouldn't belong to a club that would have me as a member :lol:

#12 rdkyote

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Posted 27 January 2012 - 06:50 PM

Who's running around slapping the vote this post down button? A quick glance at our profile "reputations" and it appears we all hate each other. That's friggin hilarious. :lol:

#13 quanta

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Posted 27 January 2012 - 06:51 PM

That spike at the bell was just nuts,1313 to 1317 in one second flat,monster volume spike too.....

I think it printed 1 or 2 seconds after the bell though,looks pretty fishy on that kind of volume.


Sorry, my bot had Mexican for lunch today and farted.
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#14 quanta

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Posted 27 January 2012 - 07:01 PM

Disconnect?

Ratio has moved outside the BB...

Posted Image
Don't look too close...
The current Weatha
In mathematics you don't understand things. You just get used to them. Johann von Neumann
We're all frinkin' doomed The Mogambo Guru
In the long run, we're all dead John Maynard Keynes
If voting changed anything, they'd make it illegal Emma Goldman
Time flies like an arrow; fruit flies like a banana G. Marx

#15 BreakOut

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Posted 27 January 2012 - 07:16 PM

Disconnect?

Ratio has moved outside the BB...

Posted Image




Happened a lot in August.

What happened in August?





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