Simple Guy Brings The Pain On Monday Night - Stool Pigeons Wire Message Board

Simple Guy Brings The Pain On Monday Night A quick wrap, and a chart of the Q's Rate Topic:

#1 simple guy

Elliott Professor Emeritus of Stock Proctology

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Posted 10 February 2003 - 06:51 PM

SG forums are not allowing me to post a new Topic... so here goes for now (You can normally catch me on Simple Guy waves, a link is provided on left side of screen).

QQQ continuing a 2 day mind numbing scattershot chart pattern.

From what SG sees... 24.45 was the intra-day top on Friday morning, and we quickly saw 23.65 eventually get hit.

Today's action best counts as a near 78% retrace when we hit 25.25... about 3 pennies shy of my top number I was looking for.

My best view is we should not surpass that tomorrow (after hours is not indicative of collective social mood), or my counts are off short term....

That said, Im still looking for lower lows, compounding with these lower highs we keep seeing. After 5 trading days, we are right where we were last Tuesday morning btw.... a frustrating time for bears I realize...

Im looking for a 3rd minuette wave to unfold off of the 24.25 print high today on the QQQ... and Im looking for that number to be at or about 22.97 ish... this is still jiving with my views last week.... if anything, my targets keep lowering.

The retraces have been sharp, nearly 78% a few times now over the past week... indicative of a nervous market on the precipice of collapse.... thats right, a very major selloff collapse is nigh... so Im holding my 200% shorts, and not wavering...

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#2 simple guy

Elliott Professor Emeritus of Stock Proctology

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Posted 10 February 2003 - 07:03 PM

SG must also mention here that the "expert" steve hochberg of Elliottwave.com (who of course is entitled to be right for sure) expects now a bounce over the next several days.

He is looking for 1346-1371 perhaps on the NAS.

Now Last wednesday he decided he was very bearish. Friday he was not real sure.... today he is short term bullish, but still bearish... although he could be wrong and perhaps the waves continue down....

Therein lies the rub Danny... as soon as I rely on his forecast, prices go the other direction and then he changes his mind conveniently.

So... he could be right, and I could be wrong... or vice versa.

Its why it's important to have your own vision and your own views... and be prepared to take necessary action when you are wrong. Since Hochberg flip flops so damn much, I'll tend to sit back and see what unfolds tomorrow.

Admittedly, the last week or so has made the waves very hard to figure out, there has been a dramatic amount of volatility in the averages in short windows.

SG going to stay short, but I will be clearly surprised if Hochberg is right and we have a multi day advance nigh...

Guess we shall see, thats what makes a market...

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#3 DrStool

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Posted 10 February 2003 - 07:16 PM

the Elliott Water Torture market.

SG- I see this shallow decline continuing, but the next few days are going to be especially tricky. The market is becalmed and jumps every time there's a noise.

Details in tonight's Anals. Hope to post by 8 PM NY time.

Be prepared. Stay ahead of the herd.
Start your risk free trial to the Wall Street Examiner Professional Edition RIGHT NOW!

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#4 crooked_analyst

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Posted 10 February 2003 - 08:31 PM

SG,

It goes without saying...thanks!

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#5 MrHanky

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Posted 10 February 2003 - 08:32 PM

sure looks like a tough call here.but I think we still trend down.

the volume is so light I can't tell what is going on.all the gains today were in the last hour.the market was actually down around 3pm.looks like a bounce to relieve the Dover Sole condition.

I wish that 5-6% down day would make it's appearance.after all of this grinding down,we did not really make much progress to the downside in the last week.

ge keeps making lower lows then bouncing right back.how should we take this.is that a bullish sign or a bearish one?

amgn keeps goin up on no volume.I take that as bearish.but it is still going up.it's all a bit confusing.

Respect my authoritah!

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#6 PileDriver

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Posted 10 February 2003 - 08:54 PM

let it rally to 1376, the crap I'm holding short has been so pummeled it'll be lucky to recover. Once any rally is over and we plummet to March/April lows, the stuff will be hopelessly trashed.

Personally, from indicators I follow there is not much that says a rally of significance will ocurr.

I agree with Doc in that we simply drift lower with days like this peppered throughout . Nothing earth shattering either way.

Just a nice drift down to hell. Turds sink and never come back.

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#7 Drano

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Posted 10 February 2003 - 11:44 PM

Yes, Doc's idea that the market is becalmed really fits the bill.

It's like the Sargasso Sea, that great area of a giant floating mass of seaweed. It's like a roach motel for sailing ships -- get stuck in the middle of that, and you will go nowhere.

Except, eventually, down to the bottom of the sea.

Let us spray.

Of course I'm caustic!

moo