Sg Tuesday Night After Market Rants And Updates - Stool Pigeons Wire Message Board

Sg Tuesday Night After Market Rants And Updates The next move aint up folks Rate Topic:

#1 simple guy

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Posted 04 February 2003 - 06:51 PM

SG will quote his Premarket MONDAY forecast here

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However, as I stated over weekend... 24.76 is likely already the top and was hit Friday....

Either way.... lower lows and lower highs remain the trend, and all rallies should be shorted or sold.

SG expects a move below 24 near term on the Q's, if not today...

So, there you have it. After a non day on Monday, we got the sub-24 today to 23.85. Somehow it rallied into the close (surprise surprise, cisco was on deck)...

I expect 23.37 to be hit near term, as in tomorrow or Thursday sometime likely...

There is not a whole lot to write about here kids, we are in a minuette 3rd wave of a 3rd.... and its unfolding.

It started at 24.79, hit 24.06.... 24.29, then 23.85, then 24.15 at the close....

Lower lows, lower highs.... simple stuff.

The real thunder has not even been heard yet, the crack is coming....

Im staying 200% short, any upside moves tomorrow from Cisco should be shorted.

If I wanted to be anal and recalculate... here is the potential...

Minuette leg 1 from 24.79 to 23.85 today's low....
Minuette leg 2 from 23.85 to the 24.25 closing print (current ah quote)
Minuette leg 3 from 24.15 closing print to 22.63 per share

No matter how I keep slicing, dicing, re calculating... it all keeps bringing me back to the 24.50 ish range.... plus or minus 10 cents...

At that point I MAY cover short term... until then, its calling the markets after the fact.... or in my case, sometimes calling them before...

Good luck and comments welcomed... the trend is your friend...

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#2 simple guy

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Posted 04 February 2003 - 06:53 PM

Should have read...

Bringing me back to the 22.50 range...

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#3 simple guy

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Posted 04 February 2003 - 07:06 PM

A quote from myself this afternoon on the IDS board at 240pm

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SG with a few notes on Cisco

Deferred revenue is the figure to watch tonight, the analysts will be watching this. Its assumed that their 4% sequential growth last quarter came from this, and without it, they would have been flat.

Also, their revenues are quite possibly going to be down sequentially this quarter, and the April quarter is always their worst.

My advice is if you think the Q's are going to go up because of CSCO beating by the usual 1-2 pennies tonight, they will for a short period.... but tomorrow morning will unleash a flurry of sell orders on the Q's as I expect the analysts to downgrade the stock etc.

Look for my 23.37 tomorrow on the Q's, and 22.50 possible by end of day Friday...

The selling shall be unleashed tomorrow at some point...

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#4 simple guy

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Posted 04 February 2003 - 07:19 PM

As another note

Steve Hochberg, Prechters' TA guy who writes the thrice weekly short term market updates, is COMPLETELY CLUELESS tonight on the wave counts.

His counts continue to differ from mine. He continues to expect more immediate upside first, then a big leg down...

It goes to show that this guy has forgotten more about E waves than I know, and has great credentials. But using the simple guy approach, Im doing better in forecasting than him.

He has 3 alternate counts right now... and even his 3rd count IMO is off.

So, he will be surprised by the coming downleg, then he will alter his opinions on Friday night this week after its too late for most traders...

No wonder why I never made money following the "experts" advice...

Keep it simple... cuz it is... retraces are mild, short, sweet in a 3rd wave....

The weight is to the downside...

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#5 crooked_analyst

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Posted 04 February 2003 - 07:41 PM

SG,

It can't be said enuff....Many, many Tanks for your work and for sharing it with us.

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#6

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Posted 04 February 2003 - 08:08 PM

Covered my AIG short today just cause I needed a winner in the pocket. Otherwise, I'm staying short until we reach your 22.50.

I like what Jimmy Rogers had to say about CSCO a couple of mths ago -- "Cisco isn't a real company and John Chambers isn't a real CEO". It is just another AOL that hasn't come to terms with itself yet.

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#7 BigWave

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Posted 04 February 2003 - 08:16 PM

SG,

Many tanks for all your efforts.

BW

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#8 flockofsheeples

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Posted 04 February 2003 - 08:30 PM

Tanks SG...you're right about Hochberg. "Things should go down, unless of course they go up" (my words not theirs). Been sitting on my hands so as not to sell my putzes before 22.5 ish.

I don't know why they call it hamburger helper...it seems to do just fine on its own-Uncle Eddie, "Family Vacation"

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#9 GregFokker

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Posted 04 February 2003 - 09:26 PM

Thanks again, Simple Guy.

...A declining spenglerian carnival of Colossaalism united with Inflation where the numbers one through 10 are forever banished as worthless arithmetical detritus from a bygone age... - Beardrech

Naturally we believe the govt numbers... and Boobus Americanus sleepwalks off the edge of the energy-crisis cliff clutching his shares of "Crisco", Yoohoo and GooGah munching on his Yum Yums and Ho Hos. Future historians will have a hell of a time figuring out what the hell Americanus neanderthalus was thinking and exactly what brought on his sudden demise... - Henny Penny

Well, good night everyone. I gotta go lube up for tomorrow's regular end-of-week Gold Slapdown and Stock Index Bear Punishment Rally Weekend Greenprint. ...Probably another Shock-and-Awe Gap-Up-Open and Wire-to-Wire Meltup Runaway Bull Charge Mo-Mo Spike to Fresh New All-Time Lifetime Highs, culminating in a 4:15 yelping scalded dog runoff with panic short-covering and legal not-held bad double fills due to fast market conditions, plus quote system freeze-ups and trading platform lock-outs along the way. *yawn* typical gov't Friday. - Shorty

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#10 phatbubble

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Posted 04 February 2003 - 09:29 PM

appreciate your work SG. and your willingness to hang your ass out in the wind with your calls. really, really excellent. may your cup runneth over....

Quod Severis Metes

Your life is the sum of a remainder of an unbalanced equation inherent to the programming of the Matrix. You are the eventuality of an internal anomaly, which despite my sincerest efforts, I have been unable to eliminate from what is otherwise a harmony of mathematical precision. While it remains a burden assiduously avoided, it is not unexpected, and thus not beyond a measure of control. Which has led you, inexorably, here.
You haven't answered my question.
Quite right. Interesting. That was quicker than the others.

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#11 Ned38

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Posted 04 February 2003 - 09:53 PM

Tanks SG:
I have been paying close attention.

Lotta folks covering or planning to.

I commend you for planning your trade and trading your plan.

And appreciate you sharing your analysis with us here on the board

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#12 WillytheBooh

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Posted 04 February 2003 - 10:34 PM

NASDAQ update.... seems 1200 is target of the 3rd wave minuette in the next couple of days.... surg the way waves safe

http://crucialforum....n_down=0&page=0

Regards
WtB

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#13 sniff

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Posted 04 February 2003 - 10:38 PM

sniff has 23.47 on the QQQ calculated by alternative methods...
Looks like Colon Powell gets to move the markets tomorrow... He has the Power to move the market.... short term... If the sheeple like what he has to say, or bring some of the (when)mystery to a conclusion... the low might be in for the week... This is very short term...... seems like there is often something coming up to screw with your numbers SG, I wished it was not that way... but at critical support or resistence levels it seems markets are just extra jumpy......

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#14 Yoshaviah

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Posted 04 February 2003 - 11:39 PM

I come up with 22.75 on the Qs near term (within a week maybe) and RYVNX close to 80.00. Then a rally to 24.54 sending RYVNX back to mid to high 60's. I hope to cover below 23.00 and short again at 24.50.

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#15 ShitEatingGrinner

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Posted 05 February 2003 - 12:27 AM

I have to post a thank you note like everyone else. I've been watching your calls for weeks now, and you are on fire. Thanks for the guidance.

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