MrHanky Posted February 26, 2010 Report Posted February 26, 2010 Treasuries rallied and a few selected pump stocks.Otherwise just a snow day.
TenaciousG Posted February 26, 2010 Report Posted February 26, 2010 JPM/MS/ML were all big sellers in the SnPee pit on the cash close. Did not hear GS selling. Must be JPM turn as I think GS and JPM take turns in the FED backed pump and dump. Look forward to Sunday and Monday - should be interesting.
Drano Posted February 26, 2010 Report Posted February 26, 2010 I just have one question. Is AMZN ever going to fill that gap below?
Charmin Posted February 26, 2010 Report Posted February 26, 2010 I just have one question. Is AMZN ever going to fill that gap below? Sure, why not.
Charmin Posted February 26, 2010 Report Posted February 26, 2010 Treasuries rallied and a few selected pump stocks.Otherwise just a snow day. Bonds for the next four months is an open question to this trader. http://trainingfortraders.com/Blog/?p=227
MrHanky Posted February 26, 2010 Author Report Posted February 26, 2010 Bonds for the next four months is an open question to this trader. http://trainingfortraders.com/Blog/?p=227 Could go either way obviously,But I still think we at least take a shot at 3% on TNX.Possibly lower in some sort of panic scenerio. Eventually rates have to rise,I just think we may still be a year or 2 away from that.On the other hand,we could end up like japan and rates go lower and stay there for another decade.
capitall Posted February 26, 2010 Report Posted February 26, 2010 This site http://trendythird.blogspot.com/ often has interesting commentary on the markets, although he talks about it from both sides. I found this comment Thurs. night to be interesting: "both Oil and 10 Year Treasuries are coiled in an extreme manner that has never happened for either asset in the last two decades."
MrHanky Posted February 27, 2010 Author Report Posted February 27, 2010 Could go either way obviously,But I still think we at least take a shot at 3% on TNX.Possibly lower in some sort of panic scenerio. Eventually rates have to rise,I just think we may still be a year or 2 away from that.On the other hand,we could end up like japan and rates go lower and stay there for another decade. By the way,I am usually wrong so expect 10% on TNX.
quanta Posted February 27, 2010 Report Posted February 27, 2010 The P word and the Euro Seems the boyz are placing the betz now... Some heavyweight hedge funds have launched large bearish bets against the euro in moves that are reminiscent of the trading action at the height of the U.S. financial crisis. ... a small group of all-star hedge-fund managers argued that the euro is likely to fall to "parity" ... A going price for the bet is around 7% of the amount that a parity-trade would pay off. So, for an investor seeking a $1 million bet, the cost is $70,000. This means that the market currently assigns roughly 14-to-1 odds that parity will be reached. In November, the odds were around 33-to-1, said a person who has seen the trade's pricing. Great! I can hardly wait to get some more of this stuff at 40% off...
Charmin Posted February 27, 2010 Report Posted February 27, 2010 Could go either way obviously,But I still think we at least take a shot at 3% on TNX.Possibly lower in some sort of panic scenerio. Eventually rates have to rise,I just think we may still be a year or 2 away from that.On the other hand,we could end up like japan and rates go lower and stay there for another decade. It looks like we already had that panic low
cwd Posted February 27, 2010 Report Posted February 27, 2010 Could go either way obviously,But I still think we at least take a shot at 3% on TNX.Possibly lower in some sort of panic scenerio. Eventually rates have to rise,I just think we may still be a year or 2 away from that.On the other hand,we could end up like japan and rates go lower and stay there for another decade. I think there are two major differences between the US and Japan. First the Japanese citizens bought their bonds plus they had major export industries which allowed them to maintain a postive balance of payments. We don't the savings for our citizens to buy the debt, only Helo Ben does, and our balance of payments is still negative to the tune of 30-40 bil a month. Ben may be able to keep the interest rates in the basement ,but what is going to happen to the dollar and the anitcurrency gold.
MrHanky Posted February 27, 2010 Author Report Posted February 27, 2010 I think there are two major differences between the US and Japan. First the Japanese citizens bought their bonds plus they had major export industries which allowed them to maintain a postive balance of payments. We don't the savings for our citizens to buy the debt, only Helo Ben does, and our balance of payments is still negative to the tune of 30-40 bil a month. Ben may be able to keep the interest rates in the basement ,but what is going to happen to the dollar and the anitcurrency gold. There is nothing I want more than to see much higher rates,we may have a long wait is all i'm saying.I hope to be proven wrong Long term charts still show treasuries bullish off of a huge multi-year base.Kwave posted it awhile back,until that chart is broken,I have to assume rates go lower.I would probably change my mind if TNX yield takes out the 4.10 area or so. Just throwin ideas out there and seeing what everyone thinks
ChicagoBear Posted February 27, 2010 Report Posted February 27, 2010 Very Sad - if you're just waking up or tuning in, there was an 8.8 earthquake in Chile. Turn on your TV. My prayers go out to everyone affected. I hope Sudaca is safe.
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.