I_Am_Madness Posted October 7, 2008 Report Posted October 7, 2008 Looking at the long term charts, this IS a stock market crash. The only question left is how far down it goes. Much more significant decline than anything after 2001. 697100[/snapback] that's what i was saying. it's been crashing...it's just happening in a larger timeframe. Not your traditional 'intraday' down.
Jorma Posted October 7, 2008 Report Posted October 7, 2008 To me, stocks are a sideshow, in the big picture. Treasury rates especially at the longer end are the big enchilada. If the world let's Uncle Sam get away with too low rates then the world hasn't really changed. I haven't seen one good technical argument saying a long term high (in bond prices) is near or here. The day of the 87 crash bond rates were rising sharply and the dollar was falling. Those were root fundamentals leading to the crash. That morning Greenspan opened the floodgates of liquidity and bond rate dropped and have never risen above the rates of that morning 21 years ago. (the dollar had some trouble for another year and went lower but that wasn't so important) The bond vigilantes fled the scene never to be seen again. As far as I'm concerned everything that has happened since, the great credit bubble, is based upon that fact. Wall Street discovered the beauty of low rates all the time and the rest is history. Now everything screams bonds have to rise. Everything but technicals that is. If Uncle Sam can borrow at low low rates when he obviously can't pay them back then I don't know what's going to happen but in a certain fundamental way I think things stay the same. That seems like a bad thing, until you consider the alternatives. That's an incomplete thought but wanted to throw it out here.
mdporter Posted October 7, 2008 Report Posted October 7, 2008 WASHINGTON (AP) -- Consumer borrowing fell in August for the first time in more than a decade as households, battered by rising job layoffs and the decaying economy, cut back sharply on their use of credit. Sheeple correctly sensing that the wind is blowing, and it smells like shit.
Bungster Posted October 7, 2008 Report Posted October 7, 2008 that's what i was saying.it's been crashing...it's just happening in a larger timeframe. Not your traditional 'intraday' down. 697119[/snapback] You are correct! Right now, when looking at the NYSE, we are down the same percentage as the whole 2000-2003 decline some 40%......
cwd Posted October 7, 2008 Report Posted October 7, 2008 Heckuva job, Benny!! Marketslop A little more inflation would be a good thing. The Gross one says so (he and his PimPco pals have been shilling for a 3% target), and he must be right because he's talking my book. Dow down 500 and the long Trashury falls over a point and a half. Either the schlock sell-off is about to be reversed or the bond market reached the point where supply issues and inflation anxiety trump the fear of a schlock crash. UFB. 697106[/snapback] I am afraid it is the latter. Doc has been forecasting this for a long time. :
mdporter Posted October 7, 2008 Report Posted October 7, 2008 Schwarzenegger May Seek Emergency Session as Deficit Mounts By Michael B. Marois Oct. 7 (Bloomberg) -- California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger may order lawmakers into emergency session to address a mounting deficit, two weeks after a record-long impasse ended with the Legislature over the budget. Schwarzenegger is scheduled to meet with Assembly and Senate leadership in his capitol office in Sacramento tomorrow, where they will be presented with the fiscal projections for September. ``Revenue for the state is coming in lower than expected, so that is something that we may need to do,'' Schwarzenegger's press secretary Aaron Mclear said of the possibility of a special session. Welcome to the Hotel California
cwd Posted October 7, 2008 Report Posted October 7, 2008 SU is back to 2005 prices, but still way up over 10 years. At some point it will ba great buy. Anybody want to venture a guess?
BusKow Posted October 7, 2008 Report Posted October 7, 2008 [snip]Now everything screams bonds have to rise. Everything but technicals that is. [snip] 697120[/snapback] I take it you mean RATES have to rise, bond PRICE must fall(???)
cwd Posted October 7, 2008 Report Posted October 7, 2008 Anybody have ideas how long a bank holiday would last and what it would look like? No electronic transfers? No paying bills electronically? Checks not honored during the period? No automatic monthly payments sent? One might discern from my line of questioning that I'm one of those criminally responsible fools who likes to pay bills on time. 697116[/snapback] The last time we had a bank holiday there were no electronic payments.
TURK Posted October 7, 2008 Report Posted October 7, 2008 Lease rates for gold and silver bullion rose again today. Something is going on out there... 697118[/snapback] Raise some cash....and get ready another gold smack-down, Then buy with both hands
cwd Posted October 7, 2008 Report Posted October 7, 2008 that's what i was saying.it's been crashing...it's just happening in a larger timeframe. Not your traditional 'intraday' down. 697119[/snapback] And I have been able to only extract a small amount although I was shorting the right stuff. The fraudsters just kept on shaking me out. I will figure it out about the time the market turns.
astral mike Posted October 7, 2008 Report Posted October 7, 2008 May as well enjoy it. Happy Banking Holiday, everyone. 697117[/snapback] what banking holiday is this ? i don't see any listed for today or tommorow... http://www.buyusa.gov/uk/en/us_bank_holidays.html
capitall Posted October 7, 2008 Report Posted October 7, 2008 10-07) 13:08 PDT WASHINGTON (AP) -- Executives at American International Group Inc. hid the full range of its risky financial products from auditors as losses mounted, according to documents released Tuesday by a congressional panel examining the chain of events that forced the government to bail out the conglomerate. The panel sharply criticized AIG's former top executives, who cast blame on each other for the company's financial woes. "You have cost my constituents and the taxpayers of this country $85 billion and run into the ground one of the most respected insurance companies in the history of our country," said Rep. Carolyn Maloney, D-N.Y. "You were just gambling billions, possibly trillions of dollars." taxpayers bailed out AIG fraudsters, no surprise there Great... 697104[/snapback] Let's hope that eventually financial companies learn something from all of this. This is a difficult situation for humans, because humans repeat a behavior if it is rewarded. So everyone made risky bets, and folks who were successful at the bets were rewarded financially and socially. But the behavior that was rewarded was the behavior of taking high risks. But now all of a sudden with the commodities tanking and the toxic waste paper worthless to everyone except Uncle Sam, people are being punished for the same behaviors they were rewarded for before--for taking big risks. So they are all confused. Eventually perhaps folks will learn that it is not a great behavior to leverage your bets 40:1, because no one wins all their bets. And when you lose, if U R mega-leveraged, U can go bankrupt and bring the whole economy down with you. Which makes other folks very angry at you if they end up bailing you out or end up broke because of you. So suddenly the highly leveraged financial risk takers, who are used to being treated as if they are God on a stick, are suddenly finding out what it is like to be scorned rather than worshipped. I guess we are all going to have to stop worshipping people who leverage 40:1, even if they do happen by chance to win their first bet or 2.
Yaryman Posted October 7, 2008 Report Posted October 7, 2008 The banned SNL skit that explains the current mess. Sad but true.
Yaryman Posted October 7, 2008 Report Posted October 7, 2008 WASHINGTON (AP) -- Consumer borrowing fell in August for the first time in more than a decade as households, battered by rising job layoffs and the decaying economy, cut back sharply on their use of credit. Sheeple correctly sensing that the wind is blowing, and it smells like shit. 697121[/snapback] No mention of the fact that the number they mention is seasonally adjusted. Consumer credit outstanding on a non adjusted basis did go up from July to August. Can't stop the consumer from borrowing
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