simple guy Posted January 30, 2003 Report Posted January 30, 2003 I've checked my list, checked it twice. Im trying to find out if its going to be naughty or nice... everything I've checked confirms my waves, just that the re-trace carried higher than I initially figured.... After getting out my trusty calculator and viewing some QQQ charts this morning with my coffee... here are my continuing views. We are in wave 3 of the 3rd wave which began at 27.47 on Jan 13 ish. Wave 1 completed at 24.87 on 1/22/03 Wave 2 completed at 25.84 on 1/23/03 (I hope) Wave 3 commenced sub-dividing lower that day, late in the afternoon. SO.... within this wave 3 now.... 1 to 24.34 completed yesterday morning (a double bottom) 2 is wrapping up now and should hit 25.51 to 25.53 this morning 3 will begin to unfold to 23.42 ish. Final ending of wave 3 should be around 20.37 to 20.87.... This forecast is off if we blow through 25.51 to 25.53 today.... Sorry for all the numbers... Bottom line.... today should mark the top of mini wave 2, and mini wave 3 should begin shortly and start heading down towards the 23.42 range.
simple guy Posted January 30, 2003 Author Report Posted January 30, 2003 Sorry, 23.09 is the mini wave 3 bottom target...
nincompoop Posted January 30, 2003 Report Posted January 30, 2003 Wednesday night looked so bad for my bearish positions. I would have closed them and switched to long for sure, except for your careful explanation of what was happening. So I didn't switch. I followed your plan. Today was pleasure, not pain. No wonder I'm getting addicted to Doc's Anals and SimpleGuy's strategies.
The End Posted January 30, 2003 Report Posted January 30, 2003 SG, Your doing great. Keep an open mind that this maybe wave 1 of 3. That might help you later. Somebody save this post for posterity.
Guest Posted January 30, 2003 Report Posted January 30, 2003 SG, I love the clarity and education of your posts. You do an excellent job, and thank you for the effort AND honesty of your posts - a rare atribute in these times. After today...maybe you are a Gandalf like-figure after all!!!!
SkiddMarket Posted January 31, 2003 Report Posted January 31, 2003 Barbu- I was looking at the exact same thing. And we're sitting right on the 50 day SMA, which is exactly where it bounced in early Jan, and another bounce could very well be expected. Now weigh that against Simple Guy's waves which expects a fall to 23.09 and..... hmmm.....no contest. We be goin' DOWN! (Regardless, it's a descending triangle and the odds favor it breaking down eventually anyway although anything is possible) SG- thank you. No matter what the market does in the future, I'll be telling people about your past few months' prediction accuracy for a long long time.
BigWave Posted January 31, 2003 Report Posted January 31, 2003 Sg, Feathers yesterday, chicken today... I don't know sh*t, but I think your forecast was temporarily hijacked by external forces beyond our control.(But not for long) I'm staying the course. Keep up the good work. Just sorry I was out this morning and couldn't add more shorts. Tanks, BW
Captain's Log Posted January 31, 2003 Report Posted January 31, 2003 SG - Congratulations on getting your own Stool Faculty. I very much respect your posts. I was wondering what is your take is on Gold + Gold stocks versus EWI's forecasts. Like you, I subscribe to Mr. Prechter's service but what bothers me is that he is predicting a final wave downward to $200 for POG which will then finish the 20 year bear market in gold. My problem with their EWI calls is that they are often wrong in their timing where I lost $'s listing to their premature ejaculations. Examples are this 1. Special report in August I think telling everyone to go 200% short. However, it turned out to be an impulsive wave b and subsequent wave c gave me a unwelcome surprised whilst I bent over to pick up the proverbial soap from the shower floor. 2. The call on XAU for an impulsive wave from 70's to 50's that was out of sync with HUI and POG. Still, I learned something about Put options from this.. 3. Their last special report saying now was the time to go short on gold. (It has gone up !). Sold my gold stocks based on this :cry: I remember in one post you saying you were waiting until March to go long.....Care to enlighten us with a midas touch ? I didn't post this in the gold discussion as I am interested in your views not get into debate about gold which I agree with but am not sure about timing.
MrHanky Posted January 31, 2003 Report Posted January 31, 2003 this morning was a tad stressfull,but I knew you call would be right! thanks for all your help,what's in store for friday?
Yoshaviah Posted January 31, 2003 Report Posted January 31, 2003 The 50 ma is still above the 200 on the Qs. This bothers me a bit. I think I'll cover at 24.00 or slightly above. It is possible that the FEED might jam the thing good Monday morn. So I hope to be out by Friday at the close.
sniff Posted January 31, 2003 Report Posted January 31, 2003 Looking ok SG, been making some bucks with your help. I have a projected landing down to 19.80... I don't use e-waves, but like the confirmation. Anything down there is fine with me.... I always have some concern about market noise.... News does move the markets, unfortunately.... Tomorrow, a couple of key noise reports come out. ...... the yappers and spinners always try to screw with the numbers.... Problem is the mm's are just itch'in to rob some of the blind & gullible, they know where the support levels are too.... keep up the excellent work...
DrStool Posted January 31, 2003 Report Posted January 31, 2003 This is why market knee jerks in reponse to news present opportunties to trade. The market ALWAYS returns to the cycle channel and direction, or in SG's case, the wave structure it was in originally. A news induced move which goes to an extreme can be taken advantage of because you know it's going back into the predetermined pattern it was in. We love news noise.
anjing bau Posted January 31, 2003 Report Posted January 31, 2003 Hey SG..... guru status tends to bring with it many distractions in the form of requests to look at this chart or that index. Please keep your focus on what you do best ...... the QQQ's. I encourage neophytes and savvy participants to use the annotated charts that SG has provided as a free tutorial in E waves. Learn from him. In the end you can catch a fish for a person but it is far beter that the person learns to fish. Please stay Principled SG!
BarBu Posted January 31, 2003 Report Posted January 31, 2003 SkiddMarket, sorry for the late reply, check the chart, the upper one is Nas OCT, 2002- Jan 2003, the lower one is Nas 2001 Summer. there could be similiar complicated action is developing (I "pinch" the chart a little bit to fit in 50K limit)
Sasquatch Posted January 31, 2003 Report Posted January 31, 2003 Potential Bullish Moves Imminent? Tim Killer's e-Wave Analysis - "1/30: Decline today is either an ABC down, or wave 5 of the larger C. It should complete with a minor new low as wave 5 of 5 doesn't looks like it's done 1-4 so far. At that point either 3 or c is done and we rally. Since this looks like a 5th extension here with wave 2 at 8030 or so, expect the rally to retrace at least that much of the move down. A rally above the blue 1 label from here says this is an expanded flat correction and we rally up near 8200 in wave C before another decline to a marginal new low. Alternately, we trade sideways between here and 8K for a couple hours and then decline to a new low to finish 4-5 of 5." Keller's Dow Chart JB Jackson Analysis - He basis his e-Waves on MACD and is showing a B-wave low with potential to rally 5 waves back above the A-wave highs of December 6th in the C-wave up.. Also notice the bullish Reverse H&S pattern.. &disp=P]Jackson's S&P Chart Each of the above chart anal cysts are from the Public Charts list below - StockCharts Public Charts
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