Bearwithme Posted March 15, 2003 Report Share Posted March 15, 2003 Bearbones said: "In my career, (and I've been in the business longer than I care to divulge), I don't think I've seen such wisdom on a single page as that exhibited by Merciless and Hypertiger in their posts tonight. Brilliant work gentlemen! " I concur 100%.. what some of you Stoolies have said about frugality.. (one of the greatest virtues in my opinion) is fantastic. The more crap you own, the more crap owns you.. period any more than what is truly necessary is useless bulk as far as I am concerned. Once again great postings.. I have nothing to say that hasn't already been communicated magnicently by a predecessor. ... as far as markets go.. I think the matrix might be able to pull off a pretty decent rally here... sidelines for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted March 15, 2003 Report Share Posted March 15, 2003 There has to be something in the water! That Wing-nut Tim Ord in his Ord Oracle (Gawd what a name!) is screaming new BULL-we've turned the coner, chicken in every pot, blonde in every bed, Fleck is nibbling long (the dark side) they are WRONG. Like Rub said "where's the BEEF". Pull up a one year chart of IBM-it looks like it fell out of a tree and hit every branch on the way down-if there is to be a rally of consequence IBM has to lead it, they have the biggest correlation to the Dow-their chart has broken down and she looks ready to follow. Where is the buying going to come from-there is no freakin volume-each rally has been shorter than the previous one and with less volume. On Friday this release got scant coverage-gee I wonder why. "America's current account deficit for 2002 hit an all time high 503 BILLION-28% higher than than 2001". All this is a rally to correct a severe Dover Sole condition and burn the put holders of the near month, will it last long-NO WAY-will we see new LOWS in the next 8 weeks-YOU BET! Me-I'm waiting for a break of 7800 on Monday if that happens-it's over-if it can stagger (which I doubt) to 7950-8100 will stop it cold. Trade Safe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted March 15, 2003 Report Share Posted March 15, 2003 STOOLIES. PAY ATTENTION! I'm typically pretty laid back when it comes to all of this investment stuff...you TA and wave guys are amazing, however there is a far bigger wave heading our way...do not underestimate its magnuitude...Tsufukinami!!!! There is a news story which has just hit as of today. They are calling it a new strain of Pneumonia, having originated somewhere in Asia, to include the Phillipines. (Wasn't there recently a terrorist bombing in the Phillipines? Wonder what might have been in that bomb)? Regardless of its origin, the X-Sigma event has already occurred. Thus far, according to news reports, only six people have died from this new illness, which is as yet un-named, with no known cause or cure. Thus far, it shows all of the symptoms of Pneumonia, yet is 100% fatal. The CDC is Freaking Out! Without going into any great detail (as you Stoolies certainly know how to track down the news yourselves), the following will be the result: The airline industry is TOAST - as nobody is going to get on an airplane after this thing starts to spread around the globe (it already is). The Cruise Industry is TOAST - as they've already been through the worst "Wave Season" (peak booking time) in recent history and are offering customers the option to cancel their cruise right-up until the sailing date for cruises in the Med. I'm in Florida and consult for the cruise industry - at the top. The recent outbreak of the "runs" aboard cruise ships will pale in comparison when this new disease hits a cruise ship. Extrapolate this thought across the US economy, with fear of leaving the house, going to the grocery store, etc. X-Sima anyone? They don't call me Plunger for Nothin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slothrop Posted March 15, 2003 Report Share Posted March 15, 2003 "Inflation-adjusted Dow" is a canard. Price adjusts for inflation. The millions and millions of buys and sells already reflect inflation. There's no need to "adjust" anything -- it's already in the price. We're undergoing a bear market rally. It is typically ferocious and unnerving. I'm long SPY, QQQ and a few tech stocks. We've got more room to go on the upside. I'm not hearing quite enough short-covering fear and loathing yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzly_Canuck Posted March 15, 2003 Report Share Posted March 15, 2003 The best traders I know don't try to tell the market what it MUST do. The market mustn't do anything. They simply react to the price. When the price reverses sharply and bad news no longer affects it, I say it pays to heed what the market is trying to tell you (remember retail sales and jobless claims on Thursday? And what did the market do?). Rememeber this is not about bear camp ideology. This is about making money and being able to flip on a dime. Like Darwin said............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted March 16, 2003 Report Share Posted March 16, 2003 Plunger Posted on Mar 15 2003, 06:41 PM -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- STOOLIES. PAY ATTENTION! I'm typically pretty laid back when it comes to all of this investment stuff...you TA and wave guys are amazing, however there is a far bigger wave heading our way...do not underestimate its magnuitude...Tsufukinami!!!! Sounds like the CDC & WHO are very concerned!!! http://www.cdc.gov/od/oc/media/transcripts/t030315.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bearbones Posted March 16, 2003 Report Share Posted March 16, 2003 I will try Pee Brain, as i understand your post, you are discussing positive leverage of the past decades. in the past, you borrowed money and the growth and yield were greater than the interest rate and your equity compounded exponentially at a positive rate. currently, interest rates are declining, but growth and yields may be declining faster than interest rates - a setup for an exponential CONTRACTION or liquidity squeeze. few people would be max margin and long the stock market over the past few years, but if they were, they would have a return well below the margin interest rate. theoretically, interest rates can only go to zero, but asset prices/values can decline beyond ZERO (decline in value). it seems that deleveraging (at least in NT and possibly LT) would be prudent in this scenario and perhaps a portion of the portfolio in gold or other assets that traditionally maintain their "store of wealth." is this what happened in japan where people didnt want to borrow money at "absurdly low interest rates?" is this above fairly accurate? Yes. The consumer economy has taught most of us from birth to spend and go into debt to so so. Spending is a form of entitilement that is forced upon the masses by creating needs that do not exist. This kind of culture doesn't exist anywhere else. We take it as a given, a natural order of things created by a free people. Unfortunately, most people choose to use their freedom to enslave themselves with interest payments. Home equity is at the lowest level in history. Cars are leased. All kinds of useless stuff is accumulated on credit. Everybody owes their soul to the company store-and like The Blob, compound interest accumulates until it can't be handled by incomes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted March 16, 2003 Report Share Posted March 16, 2003 Sleddogie: An emergency CDC Q& A called on a Saturday? Holy Stool! You wanna see Consumer Confidence hit 30? I don't picture this ending well. This is potentially a worldwide plague which if contracted is fatal... for which there is no cure. If that CDC briefing doesn't take this market down, nothing will. By the time the market opens on Monday, this thing might be BIG. Short the world on Monday! This may be tommorrow's news...today! Hey Hypertiger, how about a little Mayhem? Holy Stool! Plunger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tchaikofsky Posted March 16, 2003 Report Share Posted March 16, 2003 Regardless of its origin, the X-Sigma event has already occurred. Thus far, according to news reports, only six people have died from this new illness, which is as yet un-named, with no known cause or cure. Thus far, it shows all of the symptoms of Pneumonia, yet is 100% fatal. The CDC is Freaking Out! Plunger: The CDC doesn't seem to have confirmed that the disease is 100% fatal: CDC Telebriefing Transcript DR. GERBERDING: We're in the process of looking into the entire clinical spectrum with the CDC scientists who are on the ground in the various affected areas. Some people have recovered from this illness. In addition, some people have had a very rapidly deteriorating course, and others appear to gradually get ill and then stay more or less in a steady state for a period of time. So what we can say right now is it appears to be variable, and we'll be able to say more in terms of numerators and denominators when we have more thorough clinical assessment. It struck me of life once again imitating art. I'm a Stephen King reader and this sounds like "Captain Tripps" from his novel The Stand. The 9-11 airplane attacks were compared at the time to a scene from a Tom Clancy novel, Debt of Honor. I remember seeing Clancy on TV after 9-11 and he pointed out that the general situation was the same but the specifics were not. Hope this doesn't turn out as you fear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted March 16, 2003 Report Share Posted March 16, 2003 If you really want to see the future read John Maudlins news letter at www.frontline thoughts.com-Hyper it's a MUST read for you and MH. Maudlin get's a gold star-holy Toledo!..Plunger-you are right on in your comments if they don't know whether it's bacterial or viral this thing could spread like wildfire-bye, bye airlines and cruise lines. Grizz I'm not telling the market anything-this rally imho is the pro's buying back their puts from the schmoes for cheap they will let the trend resume this week to once again sell those puts to the schmoes only this time they will be expensive. They will let the downtrend resume to burn the call buyers into O.E. don't forget the Commercials are ass deep short and they have not covered in this weeks report. They know the downtrend is incomplete but a short, sharp rally into oe week lets them burn both ends. Trade Safe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted March 16, 2003 Report Share Posted March 16, 2003 Tchaikofsky: I stand corrected on the details of the conference call...I only got the (100% fatal) comment from CNN Headline News, which is where half of the world is learning about it tonight. Perception is reality. Want to bring down the global economy? Have unlimited funding and an unlimited capacity to hate? How about a little worldwide plague? Sound too outrageous? More outrageous than flying two perfectly good jets full of humanity into the World Trade Center? We are not dealing with a logical enemy. Misery Loves Company. They want everybody to live in caves. Plunger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted March 16, 2003 Report Share Posted March 16, 2003 More news in regards to SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome). GENEVA (Reuters) - The World Health Organisation warned on Saturday of a worldwide health threat as a mystery killer pneumonia spread from east Asia to other parts of the globe. http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=stor...umonia_who_dc_8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drekula Posted March 16, 2003 Report Share Posted March 16, 2003 just got an email update from Mike Drakulich even though I DO NOT subscribe to the guy! He is wildly bullish: "This remains a trading/timing market, with the potential here if the market action unfolds as I think it will, for perhaps the most important low of the past 3 years. And that would/could lead to the largest percentage rally we have yet seen." I had this guy for a free trial back in '02 and now I get this 'freebie'. I wonder how many others are getting these freebies? Something's definitely in the water. The shortz are nervous. Given so many cross-currents on literally daily basis, they really blew their cool last week. Could it be that the most advertised rally would prove to be the meal ticket for everyone? Could be. But may I suggest that somebody who is more technically proficient than myself post here historical charts from July 1990- Jan 1991 for Gold and Crude (from NYMEX) and for $SPX/$INDU (from bigcharts). If there was a case for questioning the legitimacy of WAR RALLY REDUX on the basis of the price action that preceded the BIG EVENT - that would be it! BOTH OIL and GOLD were in a downtrend for months before Jan 17 1991, while stocks were in an uptrend for 3 months. Just before the event OIL and GOLD shot up, while stocks sold off hard. This was a fake-out in all 3 markets - to shake out the weak hands. That move immediately reveresed on Jan 17, with all 3 markets continuing their respective trends that preceded the event. just my $.02 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GTNWORSE Posted March 16, 2003 Report Share Posted March 16, 2003 Hey Guys, I know that I probably made a mistake, and Brian refers to me as the ultimate contrary indicator, but I sold my 4000 RYVYX shares today for a small profit. After reading Adam Hamilton's latest, http://www.zealllc.com/2003/waterfall.htm, I a bit more comfortable with the decision. I may miss a bit more upside here, but I'm going to pay close attention to the brain trust here and expect to reap the rewards of a great shorting opportunity soon. In the meantime my NBHIX and STHBX are performing great with a blended yield of close to 7%. I am still of the mind that Saddam will take his money and exit stage left in a self-congratulatory orgy of propaganda that he has done so "for the safety and survival of the great Iraqi people...". Don't mind me. I do have a strond tendency towards wishful thinking. Be Well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted March 16, 2003 Report Share Posted March 16, 2003 btw, if you never got a # for u.s. depression unemployment...37-38% :shocked Whoa! Thanks Phat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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