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Posts posted by Jorma

  1. 21 minutes ago, DrStool said:

    Hard to believe, Harry. 

    Since I saw that TNX MACD two line weekly chart I've been thinking of scenarios where the long end crashes, if ever so briefly. Just for fun. I have penciled in a serious fall in stocks as a likely trigger.  Maybe something else.  If a plunge to 2% or lower happened then the Feds loss of control would be obvious to even the most dim witted. Then what? Who know? Scenarios rarely play out anyway.  Still if it happened I'd bet the ranch on shorting Treasuries. 

    It would be Black Monday 87, in reverse.

  2. 2 hours ago, fxfox said:

    That new TPI Programme from the ECB will be a liquidity boost, right? Basically they say, there will never ever be a default of any EUR-area state and when times get really tough they even gonna buy corporate bonds. Moral hazard, allez allez allez!

    Also there is no criteria mentioned which needs to be reached to then allow them to use the TPI Programme. They say something like „at times of economic stress“. Who defines that? What is economic stress? A downturn? A stagnation? Over which time period? Questions over questions….

    I don't know. The NY Times says 'the European Central Bank moves to reverse years of ultra-loose policy".  (Why the hyphen, I don't know that either) Sounds like they are going to be tight to me. Right?

    One has to understand that the NY TImes is a friend of the Fed and nothing has shaped the narrow perceptions and broad misperceptions of the Fed and monetary policy  more among non-conservatives than the NY Times. To this day if you criticize the Fed your marked as a member of the John Birch Society.  

  3. 7 hours ago, DrStool said:

    The 13 week bill rate has gone from 0 to 2.5

    The 1 year has gone from 0 to 3.15

    The 10 year has gone from 0.5 to 3.5 before pulling back to 3.0.

    These are the largest, fastest rises in history. It has been a draconian tightening and it will get even worse as the Fed remains massively behind the curve.

    And the market goes tro lo lo. 

    The thing is those rates are a joke when measured against the inflation numbers. They are an incentive to borrow.  Everyone knows the Fed is a joke and that's exactly how they want it.  Until they don't.

  4. Nobody believes interest rates  can whip inflation now, or at least nobody believes that  punitive rates will ever be enacted by central banks again.  So we are at the 'What Me Worry' stage in the market. Actually nobody believes interest rates can rise more than a few points in any possible case. It's an idea beyond most people conception. 

    So as ever we await rates rising against  central bank wishes and powerless to stop them. Or as the man said long long ago, nothing's changed until rates rise. 


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