DrStool

Arrived!

Quantum mechanics

I am at the last stop in France, Forbach, at the Maginot Line. And we have crossed.

Good morning! I am now on the TGV to Frankfurt and the home of the ECB for a brief stopover on the way to Berlin where ich Villbeunberlinerfuhrschtert 3 days. I would have paid a visit to Christine Lagarde at the ECB, but alas, I am too busy. Perhaps when I return to Germany in July, I will have more time to come and pay my respects to the ECB. Why ECB? It's fun to stay at the why ECB. Sorry, these things just pop into my head and I have no choice but to blurt them out. Now, where were we. Oh yes. Paris. So much to see and do there. Meanwhile, the US market has had a massive breakdown this morning, losing .0000000000000001% on the ES, S&P fuguetures. But seriously folks, with ideally 2 days to go in the 5 day cycle down phase, this has the potential to turn into something. They'd need an hourly close below 4123. Over in the bond market, if I was long fixed income I'd be nervous. Big trouble awaits abov 3.60 on the 10 year Treasury. I'd only be comfortable if that chart drops below 3.20. From the train, about to cross the Maginot Line... really, no kidding... but the symbolism should not escape us, I bid you bonne chance et bon journee. If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder. For moron the markets, see: Swing Trade Chart Picks – Buy Side Wins This WeekMay 8, 2023 There’s One Key this Week to the Stock Market OutlookMay 7, 2023 Gold Is on the BrinkMay 5, 2023 Weak Real Time Withholding Taxes Set Up a Showdown May 4, 2023 The Big One is Coming May 3, 2023 Gold’s Lost Luster Will Shine Again April 25, 2023 Enjoy the Market Mirage Now Because We’re Really In a Desert April 24, 2023 The Fed’s Circle Jerk, is ‘Twerking? April 18, 2023 If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me!

How the hell does anyone work if they drink this much. And this is just the wine they drink at home. Well, at least they're environmentally conscious.

Flat down phase. The market will do one of two things here. It will either go up or down. There's a third possibility. I could do both. And a fourth. It might do neither. I get paid a lot of money for analysis like this. I'm going to sleep now. Gotta get up early for the train to Berlin. Paris recycling: No, seriously.

To da moon, Alice.

I'll be in Berlin tomorrow night until Friday. Then to Warsaw. I'll be back in Germany in June on the way to Scandinavia, then back in Germany in July for a month. I would like to see if I can find the hometowns of the original Adlers and Arnolds (father's parents- how's that for good German names!) who came to the US in the mid 1800s. Story is though that some of them came from England on the HMS Juneflower, the second sailing after the Mayflower.

I write to you today from the fabulous City of Lights on the third day of my planned summer of travel. My itinerary will take me as far east as Poland and Budapest, then north to Prague, Germany, Sweden, Norway, Denmark, the Netherlands, Belgium, and finally the north of France for a few weeks before returning home to Nice. I expect to have a lot of fun and will shoot plenty of photos of the places I visit. I like to capture, as best I can, the feel of the the street life and architecture of the cities and towns that I visit. If it interests you, you can follow that on my Instagram page. And I will maintain a regular publication schedule for Liquidity Trader and the Wall Street Examiner. While, I'm gone, I've put my little pied-a-terre in Nice up for holiday rental. If you're thinking of visiting the South of France this summer and you're interested in staying a great neighborhood in Nice, drop me a note and I'll send you a link to the page. Meanwhile, as of 4 AM New York Time and 10 AM here in Paris, the US market still appears set up to move higher again today. The hourly chart of the ES, S&P futures suggests a 5 day cycle projection range of 4160-85. The May 1 peak was 4187. A breakout above 4148 would have a conventional measured move objective of 3205. An hourly close below 4128 would take the prospect of a test of the high off the table. But if it stays above 4128, then, given how thin this trading range is, getting back to 4187 would be a piece of cake. If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder. For moron the markets, see: Weak Real Time Withholding Taxes Set Up a Showdown May 4, 2023 The Big One is Coming May 3, 2023 Don’t Go Short if This One Thing Happens May 1, 2023 Swing Trade Chart Picks – The Future is One Word – Baking Soda April 26, 2023 Gold’s Lost Luster Will Shine Again April 25, 2023 Enjoy the Market Mirage Now Because We’re Really In a Desert April 24, 2023 The Fed’s Circle Jerk, is ‘Twerking? April 18, 2023 Here’s How We Know That Doom Has Already Arrived April 6, 2023 Macro Liquidity Says No Way Jerray! April 4, 2023 How to Play When Fed Changes the Game, Not Just the Rules March 19, 2023 Systemic Meltdown Under Way As Dead Bodies Finally Start Surfacing March 12, 2023 Here’s Why There Will Never Be Bull Markets Until This One Thing Happens February 26, 2023 If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me!

This is really interesting stuff in it supports the conclusions that I've come to that the jobs reports are bullshit. They've been dealing with it by constantly revising them down after the fact when no one is paying attention. I can't wait to see the benchmark revisions for this year. What a joke. I'd like to know where this data came from so that I can look into it a little more.

Symmetry and bearish. Heading for Paris tomorrow. Berlonh on Tuesday. Bonne nuit et bonne chance.

Do not put the chart before the horse.

If you throw enough spaghetti against the barn door, the horse will not be able to excape.

They're insane because they're false.

Gold Is on the Brink LEE ADLER 3 - GOLD TRADER MAY 5, 2023 Gold’s 9-12 month cycle high is overdue. The cycle projection has xxxx to xxxx. The cycle may have shifted into trending mode, which would be consistent with the initial stage of long term cycles turning xxx. Non-subscribers, click here for access. Subscribers, click here to download the report. Try Lee Adler’s Gold Trader risk free for 90 days!

The ES 24 hour S&P futures came down to test the April 26 low yesterday. The test was successful, but for a couple of glitches. First, it made a slightly lower low. Second, there were no positive divergences on the hourly oscillators. Typically that means that there's more downside ahead. But for now, the 5 day cycle projection of 4060 was blown out yesterday and hourly oscillators have turned up, suggesting an up phase in that cycle. Ideally it would last until Monday. To be anything more than a dead cat bounce, it would need to clear 4100 today. Otherwise, a near-term breakdown below the lows would become more likely. This looks like a big bottom on the hourly, but let's zoom out to 4 hour bars. Looks more like a big top, which would be appropriate for this circus. For the big picture, check out my Technical Trader reports. Next update coming this weekend while I'm on the train to Paris. By the way, today's Bureau of Liar Statistics Nonfarm Payrolls report should be really shitty. Bond journee! The Big One is Coming Weak Real Time Withholding Taxes Set Up a Showdown LEE ADLER 1 - LIQUIDITY TRADER- MONEY TRENDS MAY 4, 2023 Withholding tax collections through May 2 have been much weaker than the year ago period, and weaker versus last month. This does not bode well for the budget deficit. It suggests that there could be be more Treasury supply than forecast by the TBAC. Non-subscribers, click here for access. Subscribers, click here to download the report. It also suggests a very weak jobs report for April assuming that the BLS doesn’t adjust the weakness away in the various statistical tricks it applies to smooth the data. Non-subscribers, click here for access. That’s never a safe assumption, but sooner or later reality catches up with them. Last month’s report should have been weaker than it was, based on March tax collections. The BLS reported 236,000 new jobs in March. Based on withholding for March, that number should have been zero or negative. There was no improvement in April, so this should be the month where reality catches up with them. Non-subscribers, click here for access. If it does, the R House Majority will have absolutely no incentive to reach a deal to raise the debt limit. The worse they make the Administration look, the better it will be for them politically. Non-subscribers, click here for access. Meanwhile, Madame Secretary has warned us that the drop dead date for the debt limit is June 1. Supposedly that’s when the Treasury will run out of money. I did a few back of the envelope calculations, and it is completely plausible that they’ll run out of cash by the end of May. Non-subscribers, click here for access. You’ll want to see the ugly details so that you can be prepared to take the appropriate steps to protect yourself, and even profit from the situation. Non-subscribers, click here for access. Non-subscribers, click here for access. Subscribers, click here to download the report. KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW, before the Street does, read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Act on real-time reality! If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder. For moron the markets, see: Weak Real Time Withholding Taxes Set Up a Showdown May 4, 2023 The Big One is Coming May 3, 2023 Don’t Go Short if This One Thing Happens May 1, 2023 Swing Trade Chart Picks – The Future is One Word – Baking Soda April 26, 2023 Gold’s Lost Luster Will Shine Again April 25, 2023 Enjoy the Market Mirage Now Because We’re Really In a Desert April 24, 2023 The Fed’s Circle Jerk, is ‘Twerking? April 18, 2023 Here’s How We Know That Doom Has Already Arrived April 6, 2023 Macro Liquidity Says No Way Jerray! April 4, 2023 How to Play When Fed Changes the Game, Not Just the Rules March 19, 2023 Systemic Meltdown Under Way As Dead Bodies Finally Start Surfacing March 12, 2023 Here’s Why There Will Never Be Bull Markets Until This One Thing Happens February 26, 2023 If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me!

Weak Real Time Withholding Taxes Set Up a Showdown May 4, 2023

The Big One is Coming LEE ADLER 1 - LIQUIDITY TRADER- MONEY TRENDS MAY 3, 2023 The tectonic plates of the financial sphere are heaving. The fault lines are growing. Fissures are widening. Cracks are spreading. The pressure is growing in the substrata, and magma is boiling to the surface here and there, and there, and there. The big one is coming. A financial earthquake the likes of which the world hasn’t seen in 96 years. We know where the epicenter will be. It will be on Wall Street. We just don’t know when. But the time is growing shorter. Non-subscribers, click here for access. Subscribers, click here to download the report. We can study the underlying forces, but the best meters of the building pressures are the markets themselves, both bonds and stocks. As lenders become increasingly panicked, they will call in their lines. Borrowers, highly leveraged dealers, banks, and hedge funds will be forced to liquidate. The quake will be upon us in an instant. Non-subscribers, click here for access. We saw all this developing more than a year ago. It was simply a matter of paying attention to the Fed’s Primary Dealer data and its banking system data. There was absolutely no mystery, and no doubt that it was coming. Non-subscribers, click here for access. I pointed out in April of last year that the Fed had decided to stop publishing the banks’ unrealized losses on for sale securities. Whenever the Fed stops publishing a line of data that it could easily continue to publish there’s only one reason. They don’t want us to see it anymore. Non-subscribers, click here for access. But it was already out there, and we used it to extrapolate the losses to the vast bulk of their securities holdings, where no mark to market is required. We recognized then that the system was insolvent, that if the banks were forced to sell their assets, they would be equally forced to recognize losses. I warned that that could result in contagion. Non-subscribers, click here for access. If anything, at the time, I wasn’t worried enough about just how bad this could become. I wasn’t thinking about bank runs, particularly online instaruns. Now, I am. Because there’s nothing to stop these instant bank runs. Large depositors who are not covered by deposit insurance can, and do, move all their money in an instant when they smell trouble. The contagion is starting and there’s nothing the Fed or the Treasury can do to stop a serial meltdown. Non-subscribers, click here for access. The markets have been remarkably sanguine about all this. But that that is in the process of changing. The debt ceiling is causing distortion right now as institutions shift the funds out of the durations where the greatest risk of default is perceived, and into those seen as less risky. Non-subscribers, click here for access. Subscribers, click here to download the report. KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW, before the Street does, read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Act on real-time reality! As for the intraday look, the ES, 24 hour S&P futures took a little dip yesterday. But alas, the dip buyers have been few and nothing much is happening this morning. While a 5 day cycle projection of 4065 was hit in the after session yesterday evening, downtrend channels remain in force. In fact, there's a new potential crash channel which would be active if they take out 4049 today. I would expect a bounce from there first. If they bounce instead, the areas to watch for resistance would be 4095, 4110 and 4120. A plus tard et bonne journee! If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder. For moron the markets, see: The Big One is Coming May 3, 2023 Don’t Go Short if This One Thing Happens May 1, 2023 Swing Trade Chart Picks – The Future is One Word – Baking Soda April 26, 2023 Gold’s Lost Luster Will Shine Again April 25, 2023 Enjoy the Market Mirage Now Because We’re Really In a Desert April 24, 2023 The Fed’s Circle Jerk, is ‘Twerking? April 18, 2023 Here’s How We Know That Doom Has Already Arrived April 6, 2023 Macro Liquidity Says No Way Jerray! April 4, 2023 How to Play When Fed Changes the Game, Not Just the Rules March 19, 2023 Systemic Meltdown Under Way As Dead Bodies Finally Start Surfacing March 12, 2023 Here’s Why There Will Never Be Bull Markets Until This One Thing Happens February 26, 2023 If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me! If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder.

I won't be running these threads for awhile. I've had enough. Except for a very few people who send a nice donation from time to time, this board doesn't produce a dime of revenue. When people I like and respect start attacking the only politicians and policymakers who have made super human efforts to do the right thing, despite their foibles and peccadillos, when you call them a liar on a particular issue, and don't back it up with reasons for saying that, I have absolutely had enough. Did Warren lie in saying she was American Indian? Yeah, I guess so, but clearly there was a native American ancestor. Maybe she claimed it as a matter of personal pride rather than personal gain. Warren was well qualified for any academic post she applied for. She had absolutely nothing to gain in that respect. Was it a mistake to make the claim that she was American Indian, yes. Was it done innocently or with malicious intent? Give me a break. Furthermore, what that has to do with her supposedly lying in her statement yesterday, I have no idea. The world is too corrupt all around. But it's wrong to hold women to a different standard of competence and truthfulness than we hold ourselves. Elizabeth Warren and Janet Yellen at least attempt to do the right thing more often than not. I can't say that about Ben Bernanke or Jerome Powell. I see them as craven opportunists. I'm not having fun here any more. Good night and good luck.

The buyback program is much ado about nothing. Meaningless shit to distract investors from the immediate problem that the Treasury market is on the brink of a crater the likes of which the world has never seen.

https://www.factcheck.org/2018/10/the-facts-on-elizabeth-warrens-dna-test/ https://www.npr.org/2019/02/01/690806434/warren-apologizes-to-cherokee-nation-for-dna-test https://www.rollcall.com/2018/10/15/elizabeth-warrens-dna-results-show-native-american-heritage/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2018/10/18/just-about-everything-youve-read-warren-dna-test-is-wrong/

Can't pay down debt if you're running a deficit. Always must borrow more. Buybacks are a pipedream. Of course market participants want it. They are choking on this shit and have nobody to sell too. Bankers and dealers smoking crack.

While issuing replacement debt.

I've been really patient. Today though, I finally lost my temper.