DrStool

Not at all. It's a video of the stock market that I shot today.

For Primary Dealers Easy Street is No More LEE ADLER 1 - LIQUIDITY TRADER- MONEY TRENDS JUNE 26, 2024 Primary Dealers have reduced their fixed income portfolio hedging at the worst possible time. They are facing a deluge of supply in the months ahead, and they are not well hedged. They have reduced leverage a bit, but this doesn’t appear to be enough to help them through the supply tsunami that is headed their way. Non-subscribers, click here for access. Subscribers, click here to download the report. Here’s what this means for stocks and bonds, and what you should do about it. Non-subscribers, click here for access. KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW, before the Street does, read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Act on real-time reality!

The woim has toined. Might have something to do with this. Read my lips. No new paydowns. Only this time, it's for real. Here Cometh the Grim Repo Man

The market averages are bubbling along near the all time high, but all is not well beneath the surface. For the past week I have been noting here that my swing trade screens of around 1300 bigger NYSE and Nadsaq stocks have been revealing way more sell setups and signals than buys. That continued with the screen of charts from last night's closing prices. There were 42 buy setups and 7 were triggered. There were 131 sell side setups and a whopping 43 were triggered yesterday. The sell side numbers keep going up, while the buy side numbers remain stable at low levels. In other words, a few behemoths are masking underlying weakness that may just be getting started and eventually could metastasize to Wall Street's nerve center. Today, the ES chart looks quiet again. Nothing is going on at the top of the list. But you will note that over the past few days there have been lower highs and lower lows. This happened during a 5 day cycle up phase. If this is the up phase, I can't wait to see the down. A 5 day cycle high is due today or next day. The hourly cycle oscillators have just ticked to the sell side from a low level. Buckle up Tamara. For moron the markets, see: When Gold Breaks Out June 25, 2024 Swing Trade Screen Picks – Stick It June 24, 2024 Weak Trend Status Quo June 23, 2024 Here Cometh the Grim Repo Man June 20, 2024 May Tax Collections Were Super Bullish June 6, 2024 The Fed Doesn’t Matter Any More May 1, 2024 If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder.

There's a lot of deterioration beneath the surface of the averages getting whipped around by a few bee he moths.

The paydowns have ended, just as I forecast they would at the end of June. Wuzzit mean? Here Cometh the Grim Repo Man

This morning my swing trade screens of 1300 NYSE and Nadsac issues meeting my price and volume minimums, revealed 65 buy setups of which 6 triggered, and 82 sell setups of which a staggering 31 triggered.

Wuzzat da top?

Yesterday's late breakdown from a clear head and shoulders top pattern failed to generate any follow through overnight. Now it has been fully reversed. Such false breakdowns tend to have bullish implications in the short run. That's tendency, not a guarantee. By the same token, the ES is still in a mild downtrend channel. It would need to break 5472 by the NY open, or 5468 by the close to break out of that channel and possibly start a new uptrend. On the other hand, breaking 5442 should get the ball rolling downhill toward a conventional measured move target of 5410, based on the head and shoulders top breakdown. In the meantime, rangebound is as rangebound does. Yawn. Also grinding my trading port to mush while it's at it. Ugh. Trading ranges are meat grinders for swing traders, but great for good support-resistance band traders. I am not the latter. So I keep nibbling, positioning for the eventual breakout. Hope it's soon, because if not, there won't be anything left with which to trade. 😂😂😂 For moron the markets, see: Swing Trade Screen Picks – Stick It June 24, 2024 Weak Trend Status Quo June 23, 2024 Here Cometh the Grim Repo Man June 20, 2024 Dr. Gold Stopped the Bleeding Just in Time June 16, 2024 May Tax Collections Were Super Bullish June 6, 2024 After Growth in the Spring Comes the Harvest June 4, 2024 June Swoon Called Off May 29, 2024 The Fed Doesn’t Matter Any More May 1, 2024 If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder.

Coupon issuance is short term bearish because it must be paid for. Bill paydowns are bullish because holders of the bills get cash back instead of rolling the bills over. Bill issuance (when it resumes) is also bullish because T-bills are synthetic money due to the fact that they can be, and usually are repoed without risk up to 97% of face value.

kaboom?

BTC leads.

A breakdown would have a conventional measured move target of 5400.

If they take out 5455, could be interesting. Would be an early failure of the 5 day cycle up phase.

Looks like we got a head and shouldery lookin thing on there.

I had nuclear medicine stress test done last week. Great results. I'm healthy! Whoopee! I received the results by mail. My doctor got them electronically. Now that my government health account is set up, I will receive future test results and prescriptions through the online account. The government insurance system paid most of the cost. My share was 83 euros, of which the government insurance fund will pay 76. That was the doctor fee. The test fee was around 350. The test I had done would have cost $3000-4000 in the US. I was at the outpatient hospital clinic for 3 hours, undergoing 3 separate scans. They rotated a number of patients through the various stages of the tests like clockwork. The tax cost of the health care program for middle and upper income taxpayers is around 9.2% of taxable income. Compare that to the percentage of income Americans pay for insurance. On average it's 18% of GDP. Sick alright.

I am so impressed with the efficiency, professionalism, and low cost of the French health care system, it just blows my mind. The US medical industry is a mafia syndicate. The skimming and corruption is mind bending. The politicians who are against reform are all on the take. Protection money. When you see how the rest of the world works, it is truly sickening.

In March 2020, the market reaction was delayed 13 days after the Fed began massive QE. It almost did not work.

Sure. Buyers have to raise the cash to buy the issue. Or repo it.

Swing Trade Screen Picks – Stick It

Today's swing trade screens of approximately 1300 NYSE and NADSAQ chips that meet price and volume criteria, 43 had swing trade buy setups, of which 6 triggered. 82 had sell setups of which 31 triggered. That's a humungous and growing number. Either my screening model has turned to shit, or something is cooking. Report coming up later.

Rangebound markets make predicting difficult, especially about the future. However, we look to things like time, the odds favor the upside for the next 2 days or so. The hourly cycle indicators suggest that a 5 day cycle low has formed, and that the next high isn't ideally due until Wednesday. Where might this lead? For starters, the ES, 24 hour S&P futures face resistance around 5484. If they manage to get through that, the little bottom pattern thus formed would conventionally measure to around 5510. If they don't get through, prepare your chutes. Weak Trend Status Quo In Liquidity Trader we forecast and track the outlook for Treasury supply, which is a major determinant of the direction of both bonds and stocks. Here Cometh the Grim Repo Man The end of the month has potentially cataclysmic implications. While there have been about 65 billion in T-bill paydowns sending cash back to various market entities, that's not enough to fund the $144 billion that will smack the market in the final week of June. It gets worse in July. For moron the markets, see: Swing Trade Screen Picks – Stick It June 24, 2024 Weak Trend Status Quo June 23, 2024 Here Cometh the Grim Repo Man June 20, 2024 Dr. Gold Stopped the Bleeding Just in Time June 16, 2024 May Tax Collections Were Super Bullish June 6, 2024 After Growth in the Spring Comes the Harvest June 4, 2024 June Swoon Called Off May 29, 2024 The Fed Doesn’t Matter Any More May 1, 2024 If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder.