DrStool

Holy crap.

I always knew I would meet this guy sooner or later. Nostradamus at home in St Remy. https://www.facebook.com/share/p/LKgUQir8SyrZbvUy/

I am on the road this morning! I will be back with you this afternoon your time. For now here's how it looks. Initiating lunch sequence. For moron the markets, see: Gold Raises the Bar July 9, 2024 Swing Trade Screen Picks – Summer’s Here, Dive In July 8, 2024 Big Move in Superficial Intelligence July 7, 2024 Tax Collections Post Strong Gain in June July 4, 2024 Liquidity Shows It’s Time to Get Out July 2, 2024 For Primary Dealers Easy Street is No More June 26, 2024 The Fed Doesn’t Matter Any More May 1, 2024 If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder.

2 hour bars.

Those are T-bills. $31 billion in coupons on 7/16. $25 billion in T-bills 7/16. Picking Up Nickels in Front of a Steamroller LEE ADLER 1 - LIQUIDITY TRADER- MONEY TRENDS JULY 9, 2024 The combination of market sentiment that has gone insane and the coming deluge of Treasury supply have rendered the financial markets increasingly fragile. At the same time, that does not rule out continuation of the rally. Non-subscribers, click here for access. Subscribers, click here to download the report. Survival of the bullish trend in stocks will depend on the willingness of dealers, hedge funds, and institutions to continue to increase leverage in order to support rising prices. They could use the coming crush of T-bill supply as collateral for new borrowing to buy stocks and bonds. Or they may decide not to. I know of no way to forecast when the willingness to constantly increase leverage to support the bull market will end. Nor do I think it necessary to do so. Normally we can see the signs of reversal via technical analysis applied not just to stock prices, but also to the liquidity measures that we track here. When the tide begins to go out, we should see the signs of it in both, in time to take the appropriate actions. As of now, we see xxxxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxx xxxxxxx. In the meantime, we must keep our radar up and running. Here are the charts and analysis that show you how to view this and when to be ready to move. Non-subscribers, click here for access. KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW, before the Street does, read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Act on real-time reality!

$15 billion in new T-bills issued today and $21 billion on Thursday at roughly 5.3% should do some sucking.

The ES 24 hour S&P futures have shifted into trending mode in all of the time frames that we watch on this thread. There's neither a 5 day or 2-3 day cycle projection. Both have been surpassed and there's not enough wave amplitude for any downside projections. I was able to derive a projection using moving averages for a 4 day period and they pointed to a high of 5595-5600. The market does appear to be cycling on a 3 day basis with a low ideally due tomorrow and a high due Thursday. But that only suggests possibly a bit of slowing today and tomorrow. The ES would need to end today below 5570 to break this phase of the uptrend. It would need to close below 5560 to create a potential short term top pattern. Big Move in Superficial Intelligence For moron the markets, see: Gold Raises the Bar July 9, 2024 Swing Trade Screen Picks – Summer’s Here, Dive In July 8, 2024 Big Move in Superficial Intelligence July 7, 2024 Tax Collections Post Strong Gain in June July 4, 2024 Liquidity Shows It’s Time to Get Out July 2, 2024 For Primary Dealers Easy Street is No More June 26, 2024 The Fed Doesn’t Matter Any More May 1, 2024 If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder.

Due for a 5 day cycle low between now and tomorrow PM.

5 day cycle projection of 5570 was overshot. 2-3 day 5580, done. Big Move in Superficial Intelligence

This morning the ES has reached a 5 day cycle projection of 5570. But it needs to drop below 5555 to break the uptrend. Swing Trade Screen Picks – Summer’s Here, Dive In LEE ADLER 2 - TECHNICAL TRADER JULY 8, 2024 For a second straight week, more than half the stocks in the market generated short-term signals on Friday. 350 short term buy signals and 390 sell signals triggered, out of the 1426 stocks that met minimum price and volume criteria. Like the previous week, they were again nearly evenly divided between buy and sell signals with a slight edge to the sell side. The market averages are climbing but many stocks are not. Non-subscribers click here for access. Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report. After applying long term structure filters there were 24 buys and 35 sells. In other words, less than 10% of the short-term signals that appeared to have the potential for bigger moves. I added 4 buys because they appeared to be ready to emerge from nice bases. I’ll give them a couple of weeks to swim or sink. Non-subscribers click here for access. I added one short. Non-subscribers click here for access. Chart picks tracking table and charts, below. Non-subscribers click here for access. Past performance does not suggest future results. Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! For moron the markets, see: Swing Trade Screen Picks – Summer’s Here, Dive In July 8, 2024 Big Move in Superficial Intelligence July 7, 2024 Tax Collections Post Strong Gain in June July 4, 2024 Gold is Nowhere Man July 3, 2024 Liquidity Shows It’s Time to Get Out July 2, 2024 For Primary Dealers Easy Street is No More June 26, 2024 When Gold Breaks Out June 25, 2024 The Fed Doesn’t Matter Any More May 1, 2024 If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder.

Van Gogh lived in St. Remy in a mental hospital. Nostradamus was the town know-it-all. Nobody liked him because of that.

If this doesn't break this morning the next stop would look like 5580.. From the hometown of Nostradamus, and Van Gogh, have a great day!

Off. Enjoy the extra day and long weekend while I enjoy St. Remy de Provence, and the village of Colonzelle where I'm staying this weekend.

Tax Collections Post Strong Gain in June LEE ADLER 1 - LIQUIDITY TRADER- MONEY TRENDS JULY 4, 2024 Withholding tax collections were strong in June. The US economy shows no sign of slowing. More importantly, strong revenue growth has restrained the growth of Treasury supply. Consequently, the US Treasury was able to continue T-bill paydowns through June, reducing the negative impact of heavy coupon issuance. Non-subscribers, click here for the rest of the story. Subscribers, click here to download the report. We were able to use the data to foresee that, and the fact that the impact would be bullish. We also knew that the paydowns would end in July and that the resumption of T-bill issuance that would result in renewed withdrawals from the Fed’s RRP facility. That’s because money managers would switch from holding Fed RRPs back to holding T-bills as they were issued. The decline in the RRP fund would resume. Non-subscribers, click here for the rest of the story. Given where I expected the RRPs outstanding to be at the end of June, last month I guessed that the facility would run dry in November or December. But the RRPs never got as high as I expected as money managers took some of the cash from the T-bill redemptions and used it to buy stocks and bonds instead of depositing it in the RRP facility. Non-subscribers, click here for the rest of the story. Now bill supply is starting off July at a gargantuan level. Putting 2 and 2 together suggests that the RRP slush fund will run dry in October, even at the current revenue growth rate. Non-subscribers, click here for the rest of the story. Here’s the illustrated story of how we got here, and what it means for your trading and investment strategy. Non-subscribers, click here for the rest of the story. KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW, before the Street does, read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Act on real-time reality!

Have a good one.

We'll go into the Froth of July with a 5 day cycle projection of 5560. Sick.

Actually, I don't think anyone is happy right now, despite the froth in the market. Feels like the end times. Liquidity Shows It’s Time to Get Out LEE ADLER 1 - LIQUIDITY TRADER- MONEY TRENDS JULY 2, 2024 Macro liquidity is drying up, according to the banking indicators and other monetary data that we follow. It’s not just one thing. It’s everything. Money growth has stopped in its tracks everywhere we look. Some indicators are breaking down. Non-subscribers, click here for access. Subscribers, click here to download the report. Macro liquidity is drying up, according to the banking indicators and other monetary data that we follow. It’s not just one thing. It’s everything. Money growth has stopped in its tracks everywhere we look. Some indicators are breaking down. Non-subscribers, click here for access. Falling money supply is not bullish. Even flat money supply growth that we’ve seen for months should be bearish. In fact, if we look beneath the surface of the rally in the big cap market averages, most stocks are not participating in the big cap bull trend. I’ve covered that aspect of the market in the Technical Trader reports. Here the focus is solely on liquidity, and that is turning from yellow flags to red flags. Non-subscribers, click here for access. In recent reports I had been recommending that longs could still be held. I now recommend… Non-subscribers, click here for access. Here are the charts and analysis that show you why. Non-subscribers, click here for access. KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW, before the Street does, read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Act on real-time reality! As for the usual look at the intraday patterns, hard to say if this is finished here. The 5 day cycle projection could be 5510, which is done, or it could be 5525, which isn't. But neither suggests much upside in the current 5 day cycle. Hourly cycle oscillators have reached the level of the last peak, but could allow for higher prices and could even resume their climb. Time counts suggest that the cycle high is ideally due Friday or Monday. These moves haven't respected channel boundaries, so I won't hazard a guess where this is going on that basis. I would only start thinking about a reversal if the S&P closes below 5500 today. The close comes at 1 PM today. Probably incentive for shorts to chicken out early, or maybe they already have. Only the tape will tell. All in all, the data suggests a bit more upside over the holiday as is the historical norm. But no fireworks. For moron the markets, see: Liquidity Shows It’s Time to Get Out July 2, 2024 Swing Trade Screen Picks – Ohh You’re a Holiday June 30, 2024 Fourth of July Dud Could End the Celebration June 30, 2024 For Primary Dealers Easy Street is No More June 26, 2024 When Gold Breaks Out June 25, 2024 The Fed Doesn’t Matter Any More May 1, 2024 If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder.

In the Alsace region, Colmar is fantastic, along with a couple of the smaller villages between Strasbourg and Mulhouse. All reachable on the regional trains that run every half hour or so between Strasbourg and Mulhouse. https://www.sncf-connect.com/en-en/article/top-5-des-plus-beaux-villages-d-alsace

Strasburg is one of the most beautiful and walkable cities in Europe. The Cathedral and the old town are stunning. I'd compare it to Krakow. Nurnberg is haunting. Beautiful and terrifying. It shows how hideous the world could become, but the center and the old town is really nice. Quintessentially old European. Haven't done Stuttgart or Karlsruhe. I will be in Munich in 2 weeks. Warsaw in the second half of July. Staying right on Chmielna in the old Communist apparatchik high-rise across from the TK Maxx.

Using 4 day period, cycle projection would be 5525. This is a 45 minute bar chart showing that.

The Supreme Court has legalized dictatorship. I don't see how anything can be done other than mass demonstrations, which can lead to a variety of outcomes. Possibilities include military suppression of those demonstrations, leading to a schism in the military and outright civil war. Best case scenario would be a white-hat military coup and a new constitution that re-establishes democratic norms. This seems unlikely to me. Or the suppression of the demonstrations is successful, and we end up with mass social repression, where only those who hold power enjoy any freedom, and everyone else is either in jail, or in fear of it. They live their lives with their heads down and their mouths shut. My friends in Eastern Europe know this life. Or there are no big demonstrations and the opponents of the regime that exercises the powers the Supreme Court has given it simply acquiesce in the repression. Or dead. Just like Russia. In that case, Putin wins. The corruption of the Supreme Court is breathtaking. If the US is a functional dictatorship, then no place in the world will be safe for freedom of expression and life choices. I think we're doomed. Sad that we must finish up our lives in a world descending into hell before we're even dead. Social media is the wild card. But then AI is coming to kill all of us anyway.

The quarter end RRP window dressing disappeared and then some yesterday.

Time is right for a 5 day cycle up phase, but we're already one day into it. Not auspicious for da bulls even though it looks higher at this moment. .