DrStool

Baking soda for cryin out loud.

Isn't that crazy!

Well, it's all semantics of course. Traders can find opportunities to trade in any environment. What you call it does not matter one iota. The only exception is tight trading ranges. They are meat grinders and the object there is too maintain capital for the next sizable move. That move is inevitable, but could be months away. Meanwhile, the drip, drip, drip of small losses can be soul crushing. I've had that experience and it's not fun. But lately, my longs have done much better, so there's light in the tunnel. I'll have an update coming later this morning. Also an update on the May withholding taxes, although I'm not sure that I'll beat the jobs report, which no doubt will beat expectations because that shit is rigged. So yeah, I think that this is a weak cyclical bull market within a secular bear. That means that a few big stocks are holding up the averages, while the vast majority of issues act like shit for years on end. I was active in the markets in the 1970s and 80s, and if you weren't in the Nifty Fifty, you weren't making any money. Except for baking soda, of course (CHD). 😁 I wonder how many stock pickers saw that multi decade move coming (150 X). As for today, the ES 24 hour S&P futures that we watch are up up and away again. As I write at 6:40 AM ET they are hitting trend resistance at 4244. The 5 day cycle projection is right around there also. A 5 day cycle high is ideally due tomorrow, but wouldn't be unusual for it to come today. However, if they clear 4244 with a bit of momo, there's running room to 4265 or 4280. If they roll over here, the first sport level is around 4225. That's where the uptrend would be tested. For moron the markets, see: That Seventies Show May 30, 2023 Gold Gets Closer to the Bottom May 30, 2023 Swing Trade Chart Picks – Numbers Lean Bearish, Charts Don’tMay 26, 2023 Modestly Hedged Dealers, Record Short Hedge Funds Suggest Disaster Ahead May 25, 2023 The Most Widely Forecast Economic Disaster In History May 16, 2023 The Big One is Coming May 3, 2023 If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder. If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me!

It's a weak cyclical bull market within a long term secular bear market. News flash. My picks have done really well lately. 17 longs and one short. The longs are doing ok. Some nice winners but a few pieces of shit. And the biggest gainer is a short. A retailer that I never heard of.

I went out to dinner. What did I miss? Was there some news?

Looks like a heading for the Dick Trickle Memorial Point at 4175.5 or 4176.4

Check out where the buyers came in.

Previous low 4167. Watch the show!

Gone South!

The Imaginot Line is now 4195.

Yesterday, half tongue in cheek, I headlined our thread, Sell the News. But I noted that we didn't know what the news would be. But still... Now we know. And so, the debt ceiling deal is done. Which truthfully, I did not expect. But apparently, there are still enough pragmatists to avoid finding out what the other side of this could have looked like. Hate to admit that there's a part of me that would have liked to have seen it. It would have been interesting. But the can has been kicked, and so we go on to face the coming deluge of Treasury paper that will hit the market so as to refund Peter, after the US Treasury robbed his money to pay Paul. That amounts to $600 billion or so on top of the usual $100 billion or so of new debt the Treasury must float on average every month. We don't yet know how they will schedule that. Take all the pain in the short run, or spread it out? We should probably have some idea in the coming days, and I'll cover it and tell what we can expect as a result in upcoming episodes of Days of Our Lives As the World Turns General Hospital. AKA Liquidity Trader Money Trends. Late this evening, the updated Daily Treasury Statement for May 31 will be posted. I'll post an update on withholding tax collections for the month. It's the best way to know how jobs and the US economy overall are really doing, and what direction they're headed (last month here). I took a peek last week, and it wasn't good. Moron this in the report to be posted As for today, what can you say. Same old, same old trading range. 5 day cycle low is in. Today should be the up phase, whether in absolute terms, or just flat. That's the question, up or flat, not to be or not to be. For it to be "up" must take out 4200 on the ES, 24 hour S&P fugutures hourly chart. For a downside surprise, need to break 4167. Looking at a 2 hour bar basis, the perspective looks bullish. But more time and work needed to achieve that intraday trend breakout. That Seventies Show The big question now is what's gonna happen with the bond market. Because that will be the source of the systemic collapse. And did gold just bottom? Gold Gets Closer to the Bottom For moron the markets, see: That Seventies Show May 30, 2023 Gold Gets Closer to the Bottom May 30, 2023 Swing Trade Chart Picks – Numbers Lean Bearish, Charts Don’tMay 26, 2023 Modestly Hedged Dealers, Record Short Hedge Funds Suggest Disaster Ahead May 25, 2023 The Most Widely Forecast Economic Disaster In History May 16, 2023 The Big One is Coming May 3, 2023 If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder. If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me!

Heading into the close still no confirmation of 5 day cycle low. Stay tuned to your local station for the latest news overnight. From Gdynia, Gdnightia.

Hmmmm... Meanwhile, 5 day cycle projection now looks honed in to 4170. Ideally, due for a low now.

Busted. No swallowing. 5 day cycle projection drops to 4160.

Can't confirm yet. Need to clear 4200. But it's a start. Gotta nibble before you can swallow. Or something.

This is about where we should get our pivot.

The problem is that we don't know what the news will be. Will the House pass the debt ceiling deal, or not. In either case should it be sold? Maybe not. The 5 day cycle low is due today, and the projection on the ES 24 hour S&P futures is for a low of 4175-80. In other words, not much downside from here. For moron the markets, see: That Seventies Show May 30, 2023 Gold Gets Closer to the Bottom May 30, 2023 Swing Trade Chart Picks – Numbers Lean Bearish, Charts Don’tMay 26, 2023 Modestly Hedged Dealers, Record Short Hedge Funds Suggest Disaster Ahead May 25, 2023 The Most Widely Forecast Economic Disaster In History May 16, 2023 The Big One is Coming May 3, 2023 If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder. If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me!

To follow all my amateur travel photos.

Well well well. Down to the trendline and... BOING! What else is new? From gorgeous Gdansk, I bid you Gdnight.

That Seventies Show LEE ADLER 2 - TECHNICAL TRADER MAY 30, 2023 There are conflicting indications between the broad market averages and cycle screening measures which take the temperature of the market on a micro basis. It suggests that a new Jive Five will be like the Nifty Fifty of the late sixties and 1970s. They kept the market averages perking along while the bulk of stocks were locked in long term bear markets. That too was an era of high inflation and slow, or no growth. Non subscribers click here to access. Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report. Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! Meanwhile, back at the day trading stuff, the hourly ES, S&P 500 futures looks poised for another surge. Except for that big negative divergence in hourly momentum, and the fact that the 5 day cycle should be in a down phase until Wednesday. Is the debt ceiling deal a quintessential "Sell the news" event? For moron the markets, see: That Seventies Show May 30, 2023 Gold Gets Closer to the Bottom May 30, 2023 Swing Trade Chart Picks – Numbers Lean Bearish, Charts Don’tMay 26, 2023 Modestly Hedged Dealers, Record Short Hedge Funds Suggest Disaster Ahead May 25, 2023 The Most Widely Forecast Economic Disaster In History May 16, 2023 The Big One is Coming May 3, 2023 If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder. If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me!

They hedge the likely outcome in futures. The problem is that all the smart guys are all hedged the same way. Which is a record short position in the 10 year. So what could happen? What could go wrong? With that record short position in the bond futures, maybe instead of a crash we get a short squeeze. Which triggers massive margin calls and liquidation of everything else. Then after a week or two, all that reverses. Absolute utter chaos.

I guess that's why I make the big bucks, and they don't. ... Oh... wait.

It's laughable that the mainstream media is just covering this stuff now. I was writing about and forecasting exactly this a year ago. They never pay attention to issues until it's too late.

You're right. This is all over the mainstream media. So, hedge funds are over hedged. Modestly Hedged Dealers, Record Short Hedge Funds Suggest Disaster Ahead