DrStool

Meanwhile, the 10 year Treasury yield is holding on as it faces a huge coupon settlement at the end of the month. I am working on an expanded look at this to be posted a little later today. Meanwhile, there was this. The Sky’s the Limit

For the bears, that is. I pointed out last night that the market topped out on time but fell shy of hourly cycle projections. That's usually a sign of weakness. This morning's tape has borne that out. The ES, 24 hour S&P futures now have a 5 day cycle projection of 5470. An hourly close below 5505 would result in a conventional measured move target of 5430. If the market is below 5502 in the first half hour of regular trading, that would set up a crash channel. The market would need to be above 5502 at noon in New York to break that channel. Politics and Markets Make Strange Bedfellows For moron the markets, see: Swing Trade Screen Picks – Short-term Cancer Culture July 22, 2024 Politics and Markets Make Strange Bedfellows July 21, 2024 The Sky’s the Limit July 18, 2024 Gold Takes the High Road July 17, 2024 Swing Trade Screen Picks – Holding the Averages Versus Picking Swing Trades July 14, 2024 Higher for Longer July 14, 2024 Picking Up Nickels in Front of a Steamroller July 9, 2024 Gold Raises the Bar July 9, 2024 If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder.

5 day cycle topped right on time, but way shy of projections. Hot stove touch of 300 hour linear regression curve. And it's gone.

Tak. https://photos.app.goo.gl/QSv6n6v8BC37U7gT8

In the end, They broke the trend.

5 day cycle projection now looks 5595.

All systems pointing to 5615 today.

Yes, my friends, we have a base breakout on the hourly chart of the ES, 24 hour S&P fuguetures. It has a conventional measured move target of 5615. At the same time, there's a 5 day cycle projection of 5620-25. Trend spport is around 5555 this morning, rising to 5560 at the clothes rack. At 8:20 AM ET, the market was eating at resistance around 5560. Next resistance level is around 5580. Indications are that it will break through and head for the projections today. Politics and Markets Make Strange Bed Over in Treasuryville, the 10 year yield looks like it's trying to make a bottom, but it has a long way to go to break the short term downtrend channel. The Sky’s the Limit A ton of supply is on the way, but some of it is T-bills, which cuts both ways. The Sky’s the Limit For moron the markets, see: Politics and Markets Make Strange Bedfellows July 21, 2024 The Sky’s the Limit July 18, 2024 Gold Takes the High Road July 17, 2024 Swing Trade Screen Picks – Holding the Averages Versus Picking Swing Trades July 14, 2024 Higher for Longer July 14, 2024 Picking Up Nickels in Front of a Steamroller July 9, 2024 Gold Raises the Bar July 9, 2024 If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder.

How it ended. Maybe the 10 year yield just made a higher low. Look what's coming. Big coupon supply. T-bills also big supply, but that cuts both ways because T-bills are de facto money via repo. The Sky’s the Limit Update coming soon to a theater near you.

Here we go again

First attempt to break the downtrend is shot down.

Well, yeah. Politics and Markets Make Strange Bedfellows LEE ADLER 2 - TECHNICAL TRADER JULY 21, 2024 Joe will go, but the market won’t go with him. Political events, no matter how much of a watershed they represent, do to cause trend change. Reactions to those events are very short-term, and the market usually returns to the cyclical patterns that were developing before the event, within a few days. That will happen here. Non subscribers click here to access. Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report. Meanwhile, cycle indicators say that the market won’t go much lower here and that a higher high is still in the offing down the road. Maybe not as high as before, but higher. Here’s when and where to expect both the next top, and a longer term top. Non subscribers click here to access. Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! And here's our usual look at the hourly 24 hour ES chart. So far, it seems to want to support the analysis I posted last night in Liquidity Trader. First it faces resistance this morning around 5550 nd 5560. I suspect that trading will be messy and skittish, but if those levels are cleared, we might be singing Up Up and Away. For moron the markets, see: Politics and Markets Make Strange Bedfellows July 21, 2024 The Sky’s the Limit July 18, 2024 Gold Takes the High Road July 17, 2024 Swing Trade Screen Picks – Holding the Averages Versus Picking Swing Trades July 14, 2024 Higher for Longer July 14, 2024 Picking Up Nickels in Front of a Steamroller July 9, 2024 Gold Raises the Bar July 9, 2024 If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder.

🤣🤣🤣

Global internet outage makes short sellers unable to cover shorts.

Taking a train across Germany about 1 hour late will cause missing my connection in Berlin. Has the ES lost its connection? Needs to clear a couple of resistance lines to get back on track. https://liquiditytrader.com/index.php/2024/07/14/higher-for-longer/

Completed top pattern measures to 5507. 5 day cycle projection 5510-15.

Today I am visiting Munich's Alte Pinakothek, a great Museum of 18th and 19th century European art. Meanwhile, yesterday's action in the Dow was a world-class paint job. The ES is attempting a recovery this morning. To generate anything meaningful it will need to clear 5615. Otherwise we have a new downtrend channel to work with. THE SKY IS THE LIMIT

From your mouth to God's ear. Oh wait. Somebody shot it off.

Stock market decided it didn't like to add Vance.

5 day cycle projection latest 5583 virtually done.

Wait... The S&P is down 1.25% and the Dow is up .25%. Well that's baseball. There's always something new. How in the hell...

What happens in yesterday, stays in yesterday. In the pre market this morning, 3 days of gains have been wiped out, and the 5 day cycle projection points to 5485. If this breaks 5605, the conventional measured move target would be 5455. What's it all about, Alfie? I don't see a raison du jour yet. Holding the Averages Versus Picking Swing Trades Meanwhile, here's the great mystery of the 10 year yield sliding toward 4.10. I've come to the conclusion that the answer lies in the fact that coupon issuance has been light in July, and T-bills are effectively money. Picking Up Nickels in Front of a Steamroller I'll be posting moron this, this afternoon in your parlance, tonight in mine, as I wrap up my visit to the interesting city of Munich Germany. For moron the markets, see: CURRENT REPORTS Gold Takes the High Road July 17, 2024 Swing Trade Screen Picks – Holding the Averages Versus Picking Swing Trades July 14, 2024 Higher for Longer July 14, 2024 Picking Up Nickels in Front of a Steamroller July 9, 2024 Gold Raises the Bar July 9, 2024 If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder.

Treasury announced another $25 billion in net T-bill issuance for next week. The first $25 billion settlement was today. Not even a hiccup.

5 day cycle projection now 5710-15.