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DrStool

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Posts posted by DrStool

  1. Just an epic breakout yesterday. To da moon Alice. But what if you didn't buy and hold the Magnificent Seven. 

    Despite the huge gains on Thursday there were only 39 charts which met all my buy side criteria in the screens, and 26 with meeting final sell criteria. It suggests that this is a mature up-move, not one just getting started. By the same token it shows no sign of an imminent downturn.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

    Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

    List performance was disappointing in light of the big move. That’s because I had too many shorts on the list. The average gain was just 4.8% on an average holding period of 26 calendar days. That’s versus 2.8% on an average holding period of 18 days, the previous week.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

    It’s disappointing not to take full advantage of that huge gain. On the other hand, buying and holding the Magnificent Seven for the past couple of years would have been brilliant… Right… what they say about hindsight.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

    If you’ve known me for a long time, you know that I am more comfortable shorting stocks than buying them. That’s been the weakness in this process in the past 18 months. I’ve been fascinated by those stocks that the screens are spitting out on the sell side, but shorting them hasn’t worked well. The downsides have been limited, if they emerge at all.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

    This morning, I looked at the 26 charts on the sell side with interest to see if any of them stood out. Upon visual review, let’s just say that I was underwhelmed, which skepticism would have served better if I had applied it 4 weeks ago. But I did cave on two of them, and added them to the list on the short side as shown on the table below.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

    On the buy side, most charts looked to be too late in the game, but there were 6 that I liked for their potential to be late-stage movers, or long-term breakouts that look likely to extend.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

    All tracking, except for one pick, will start assuming half the purchase on the opening price and half on the close as of today, February 23. The exception is based on a limit price being hit at some point prior to the next update. These are all shown on the table below.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

    6 picks hit stops since the last report. I will close out 2 shorts as of the opening print today. I have added or adjusted stops on several of the remaining picks. The rest I’m content to let ride for this week. The table below shows open picks and those closed out last week.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

    Table of picks and performance in the subscriber report. Non-subscribers click here for access.

    Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

     

    Meanwhile, did I suggest that this might be coming? 

    As for today, which is the reason all 3 of us are here, along with you Magnanon visitors, it does appear they're gonna take you hiya. Yesterday I had a 5 day cycle projection of 5085. Now that has inched up to 5095-5105. And yes, there does appear to be a semblance of uptrending resistance around that level today. So let's look for an itsy bitsy top to form around that 5100 area. I wouldn't even think about getting excited about the downside unless they broke 5080 with force. 

    13mmg-

    For moron the markets, see:

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  2. Crushing supply over the next 7 days.  

    Market Sentiment vs. Liquidity Reaches Historical Hysterical February 19, 2024

    Date Security Type Total Offering Total Publicly
    Held Maturing
    Net New Cash or
    (Pay Down)
    02/29/2024 Bills $229,000 $206,990 $22,010
    02/29/2024 Coupons $194,000 $98,329 $95,671
    02/27/2024 Bills $245,000 $225,987 $19,013
    02/23/2024 Coupons $28,000 $0 $28,000
    02/22/2024 Bills $275,000 $240,972 $34,028
  3. The ES 24 hour futures crossed the entire trading range overnight and has slightly breached the February 12 high. This is where it gets interesting. The 5 day cycle projection of 5065, suggests that the upside is all but done for now. But this isn't the end. This breach suggests that even if the market pulls back here, it will make another attempt to at least test, if not break out. And if it does, the high base breakout conventional measured move target would be 5175. 

    I don't think it will get there today.  But you never know. 

    What a market.  Charts Say- Read My Lips, One More Rally

    13lpqp

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    If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder. 

     

  4. The hourly chart of the ES 24 hour S&P futures has broken the uptrend that began in early January, but the break doesn't mean it's over. As you know, it ain't over till it's over. Or until the fat lady sings. Neither has yet happened. 

    Meanwhile the ES triangulates toward 4963 at 1 PM in New York, at which time the market will have reached a perfect equilibrium price and will shut down in recognition. No one knows when it will reopen, or at what price. Stay tuned to your local business news channel for the latest developments.

    13kqi0

    Any price movement between 4955 and 4977 will be meaningless. When that range is broken, we'll get a little move. There's more room for something significant on the downside than the upside. But that's only very short term. Like today and Tamara.  Charts Say- Read My Lips, One More Rally

    For moron the markets, see:

    If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder. 

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