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DrStool

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  9. So Many Ways to Lose 7/26/24

    in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

    Posted

    Another $16 billion in T-bill issuance announced yesterday. T-bills cut both ways, but the $76 billion in coupons settling next week do not.  Meanwhile the RRP slush fund saw withdrawals yesterday, on the issuance of $16 billion in T-bills. The drawdown actually exceeded the amount of bill issuance.The total outstanding remains rangebound however. The sit tight mentality seems to be entrenched.

    They nibbled on coupons with the extra $6 billion withdrawn from the RRP slush funda. All signs that the party really is over for stocks. End Stage Hysteria Breaks

    15r6d7

     

     

  10. So Many Ways to Lose 7/26/24

    in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

    Posted

    Oh, my money! How can I lose thee? Let me count the ways. End Stage Hysteria Breaks

    The stock market seems to be growing increasingly random, with increasing frequency and amplitude. However, despite the wild fucktuations, the trend, for now, is still down. The angle of the dangle may change but barring an hourly close above 5493 today, the trend will remain down. 

    In fact, the 5 day cycle has been in an up phase since early yesterday, and the market has yet to make a higher high amidst the wild swings. The immediate challenge as of 6 AM in New York, is to break a downtrend line at 5448. Failing that, another sharp plunge would be likely.

    If they do get through that, then the next move should be an attempt to get back to 5493. First the ES would need to clear trend resistance in the 5465-75 range. 

    The 5 day cycle would ideally top out next Tuesday. If nothing happens on the upside before that, another mini crash leg could be dead ahead. 

    15r61d

    For moron the markets, see: 

    If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder.

  16. That Sinking Feeling 7/25/24

    in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

    Posted

    The ES, 24 hour S&P futures shows little sign of a rebound as it challenges support at 5410. At 8:30 AM ET, it was challenging its sharpest downtrend line at 5425. Even if it clears that, there's more sharply descending trend resistance suggested around 5440 in the opening hour of regular trading. If they clear that, then we can think about a possible bottom. Otherwise it would still be crashy. End Stage Hysteria Breaks

    15qgec

    5410-5400 is the Maginot line. If they go around it, there's air to around 5370. 

    For moron the markets, see: 

    If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder.

  17. Yesterday's Failure is Today's Success 7/24/24

    in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

    Posted

    7 hours ago, DrStool said:

    I pointed out last night that the market topped out on time but fell shy of hourly cycle projections. That's usually a sign of weakness. This morning's tape has borne that out. The ES, 24 hour S&P futures now have a 5 day cycle projection of 5470. An hourly close below 5505 would result in a conventional measured move target of 5430. If the market is below 5502 in the first half hour of regular trading, that would set up a crash channel. 

    Got something right. 

  25. Yesterday's Failure is Today's Success 7/24/24

    in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

    Posted

    5 day cycle projection now 5430. 

    The market has broken out of the crash channel... to the downside!

    15prgh

    Last week we saw that the price to liquidity ratio measures suggested that the rally was in its end stage. The most recent data gives additional support to that idea, with those indicators touching upper trend limits in the week ended July 17. Under the circumstances, market action this week looks like not just a pullback, but more likely, xxxx xxxx xxxxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxx.  Non-subscribers, click here for access. 

    Subscribers, click here to download the report.

    As a result, my focus would be on xxxxxxxxxxxx   xxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxx. Non-subscribers, click here for access. 

    The bond market has rallied in July, contrary to my thinking that massive supply would hurt the bond market. The source of the money to support this isn’t clear, but deduction would say that it’s leverage, particularly repo. But repo outstanding has been rangebound. If it subsequently breaks down, that should be a sign xxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxx again. Short-term bills continue to look like xxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxx Non-subscribers, click here for access. 

    This report shows and explains the critical indicators that you need to follow to stay on top of the market as it tops out. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

    KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW, before the Street does, read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Act on real-time reality! 

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