Every day at the stroke of noon here in Nice, there's a cannon blast. This has been going on for 160 years. It's to remind the mayor that it's time to go home from his morning dalliance, lest his wife catch him.
For the longest time, every day when that cannon went off, I would jump out of my skin. Now, I barely notice it despite being just 300 meters from its location on La Colline du Chateau, Castle Hill .
As I was preparing to open this thread this morning simultaneously with the usual mid day cannon blast, I looked at the hourly chart of the ES, S&P 500 24 hour futures and I was startled. It wasn't from the cannon blast. It was from the market blast. When I had checked earlier this morning, the ES was up a bit from yesterday's 4 PM close. Now, traders had blasted out yesterday's lows. What changed in the space of a few hours?
Well, Europe opened, for one, and there seems to be just a touch of panic about the next domino to fall. That would be Douche Bonk, which is not only too big to fail, but too expensive to save?
Stay tuned for that drama to play out.
I do think that in the end, all of us will end up somehow taking a substantial haircut on our bank deposits, if not through outright bail-in, then through disastrous inflation that rapidly erodes our purchasing power as the Fed and its cohorts print and print and print some more in an attempt to inflate their way out of this fucking mess of their own making.
Now they are poised to test critical sport around 3910-3905. At first glance, the hourly indicators suggest to me that this will break down. Not sure if that's my bias, or an accurate reading, but that's the opinion for what it's worth. The 5 day cycle projection is only 3915, suggesting that the decline is done for now. Howsomever, there's a 2-3 day cycle projection of 3875, so pick your poison. I'll go with door number two.
I do think that, clearly if 3905 fails, 3875 is all but a done deal, and it should happen fast. Massive Fed Monetary Injection Changed the Technical Picture
The 10 year Treasury yield is on the verge of breaking down. Implied target would be 2.50, probably in the blink of an eye.
That would be a first step on the way to a self mitigating banking crisis. While investors who had any assets left would be buying Treasuries, it would also require massive liquidation of equities. How to Play When Fed Changes the Game, Not Just the Rules
The rally in the euro got kneecapped over the past two days. The daily chart has formed a triangle suggesting a narrowing range of indecision between $1.055 and $1.09 per EUR
Bitcoin reached its 9 month cycle projection of 27,000 and has not been able to break out of its uptrend channel. The move looks done but would need to drop below 26,500 to reverse to the downside. Until that happens, there's still the base breakout implied target of 34,000 to think about.
Ha ha ha.
I love the next chart. It's going up to test its high. Then if it hangs around, it's going higher and higher. Gold Set For High Base Breakout
Gold weekly.
For moron the markets, see:
Gold Set For High Base Breakout March 22, 2023
Swing Trade Screen Picks – Show Me the Money, Jerry! March 21, 2023
Massive Fed Monetary Injection Changed the Technical Picture March 20, 2023
How to Play When Fed Changes the Game, Not Just the Rules March 19, 2023
Systemic Meltdown Under Way As Dead Bodies Finally Start Surfacing March 12, 2023
February Withholding Taxes Say – Fade the Jobs Report! March 2, 2023
Here’s Why There Will Never Be Bull Markets Until This One Thing Happens February 26, 2023
You Can Now Follow the Diabolical Usual Suspects February 16, 2023
If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me!
If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder.
Treasury announced $84 billion in net new T-bill issuance to carry through the end of the month.
That's on top of $71 billion in net coupon issuance March 31.
Ouch.
And, still, they rise.
Macron rammed it through without a vote.
Contrast this with the US where they raise the social security retirement age regularly and nobody utters a peep.
Three two three two three. Has a nice ring.
But is it enough to take away the sting,
Of yesterday's late selloff?
As we watch this morning's round mound of rebound.
Where is Sir Charles now?
If they can keep a lid on it here, the ES, 24 hour S&P futures hourly chart would have a 5 day cycle projection of roughly 3915.
But if they clear 3969 this morning, they'll likely run to trend resistance at 3982. That would be decision time for bull or bear.
We still have higher lows, both on price and hourly oscillators.
Advantage bulls. For now. An hourly close below 3950 this morning should flip that. Massive Fed Monetary Injection Changed the Technical Picture
As has been his practice Jerry Show Me the Money rubber stamped the Fake Funds rate to the 13 week bill rate yes turd day. How to Play When Fed Changes the Game, Not Just the Rules
The 10 year Treasury yield is set up for a bottom, or a crash right here. Crash would mean soaring bond prices and a potentially self mitigating banking crisis. But if the 10 year turns up, shit will get ugly in bond and bank land. Oh, the shackles of bondage. Where will be the promised land? How to Play When Fed Changes the Game, Not Just the Rules
10 year daily chart.
Gold looks golden. Gold Set For High Base Breakout Gold daily chart. I'll take a saucer of that.
Puntcoin daily. Still has a conventional measured move target of 34k based on the base breakout. But the 9 month cycle projection is 28k, done.
For moron the markets, see:
Gold Set For High Base Breakout March 22, 2023
Swing Trade Screen Picks – Show Me the Money, Jerry! March 21, 2023
Massive Fed Monetary Injection Changed the Technical Picture March 20, 2023
How to Play When Fed Changes the Game, Not Just the Rules March 19, 2023
Systemic Meltdown Under Way As Dead Bodies Finally Start Surfacing March 12, 2023
February Withholding Taxes Say – Fade the Jobs Report! March 2, 2023
Here’s Why There Will Never Be Bull Markets Until This One Thing Happens February 26, 2023
You Can Now Follow the Diabolical Usual Suspects February 16, 2023
If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me!
If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder.
