Buy the dip. Buy the dip. Buy the dip. This is bear abuse, and it has to stop. One day it will. But I don't think that today is the day. Let's look at the 2 hour bars of the ES for perspective. Does this look bearish to you?
Not one bit. In fact, if this breaks out topside, it will complete a massive bottom at a top that would imply much much higher prices ahead. The Market Still Blows
Here's our usual hourly look for the day to day Action Jackson Hole Expectoration Adoration Abomination. The number it needs to beat for a breakout is 5650. If it does, then it will get to 5675 in a heartbeat. Clearing that would yield 5720. In one day? Sure, if it gets through that first line of da fence.
And what might be needed for any downside excitement. Break 5584 for starters. But there's more spport at 5559. Watch out for dippers at both levels however.
From the Department of BTC Leads But Not Necessarily, look at this picture and see what you want. But I heard that BTC is going to 97 million zillion.
I think that the real reason for these air pockets that have developed this week is the requirement for the market to absorb the enormous bond issuance today and Tuesday.
The liquidation needed to do that has shown up in both stocks and bonds. I think the effect will continue to be more pronounced in the bond market, as illustrated by the 10 year yield, 2 hour bars.
Gotta break 3.90 to get a really bearish upside yield move going.
The hourly chart of gold is at an interesting infartion level. Gold’s Most Important Point
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For moron the markets, see:
Gold’s Most Important Point August 29, 2024
Swing Trade Screen Picks – Short Inundation August 28, 2024
Liquidity Still Supports the Rally, But with Warnings August 27, 2024
The Market Still Blows August 26, 2024
Liquidity Now Hinges on Mood August 19, 2024
Bits and Pieces- Why What Was Bearish is Now Bullish August 15, 2024
Tax Collections Were Worse than the Jobs Report But… August 5, 2024
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For perspective, the 2 hour bars. Me so bullish. BTW, 2-3 day cycle projection now 5660. Swing Trade Screen Picks – Short Inundation
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For moron the markets, see:
Gold’s Most Important Point August 29, 2024
Swing Trade Screen Picks – Short Inundation August 28, 2024
Liquidity Still Supports the Rally, But with Warnings August 27, 2024
The Market Still Blows August 26, 2024
Liquidity Now Hinges on Mood August 19, 2024
Bits and Pieces- Why What Was Bearish is Now Bullish August 15, 2024
Tax Collections Were Worse than the Jobs Report But… August 5, 2024
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Gold’s Most Important Point 8/29/24
Lee Adler 3 - Gold Trader August 29, 2024
Gold could top out here. The 13-week cycle projection has been reached in the expected time frame. xxxx is projected resistance. Short-term cycles are due for down phases lasting a week or two. If the price drops under xxxx in this period, then this could be a bigger top. If it holds above that, a subsequent breakout would suggest that the 10-12 month cycle will remain in trending mode with the long-term trend strengthening, leading to xxxx xxxx xxxx. Non-subscribers click here for access.
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This is ridiculous. There have been more false breakdowns lately than I can remember. The new technical rule is: When stocks break support, buy.
Which is, of course, the opposite of the old rule.
It's the bots and the AI, AI, AI. They're doing this. Everything is random, or made to look random. The 4 day cycle low came 4 hours later and 40 points lower than I thought. Good for a great shakeout, or shakedown, whatever the case may be.
How are we supposed to trade this? Well, if we had drawn the correct channels, the drop did stop at the exact convergence point of two trendlines dating back to the early August low. So there's that.
Now the up phase. Resistance is around 5619 in the opening hour in New Jerk. Spport is around 5588. Given that this is early in a 4-5 day cycle up phase, I'll take breakout for 5630, Alex. It's not much, but it's all I got right now. If they get through that, let's talk.
Swing Trade Screen Picks – Short Inundation
Meanwhile, in the Department of Does BTC Lead? The answer is sometimes. It led on the way down, but not on this bounce. When something works sometimes, but not others, it's not helpful. Seems to be how TA in general is going these days. But the search for eternal truths goes on. Maybe it's that all is random as opposing trading bots duke it out as they synthesize all available knowledge, and some that isn't available, to gain an edge against the other bots.
Over on the fixed income side, the 10 year yield has reached perfect equilibrium at 3.83. No further trading is necessary as the Primary Dealers arrange for the market to swallow a gargantuan issue over the holiday weekend. Liquidity Still Supports the Rally, But with Warnings
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For moron the markets, see:
Swing Trade Screen Picks – Short Inundation August 28, 2024
Liquidity Still Supports the Rally, But with Warnings August 27, 2024
The Market Still Blows August 26, 2024
Liquidity Now Hinges on Mood August 19, 2024
Bits and Pieces- Why What Was Bearish is Now Bullish August 15, 2024
Tax Collections Were Worse than the Jobs Report But… August 5, 2024
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Swing Trade Screen Picks – Short Inundation
Lee Adler 2 - Technical Trader August 28, 2024
As of August 27, the list had an average gain of + 4.7% on an average holding period of 17 calendar days versus. That was down from an average gain of + 5.0% on an average holding period of also 17 calendar days the week before. The list grew to 24 open picks versus 17 open picks. Non-subscribers click here for access.
Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.
Current screens yielded 168 short-term buys and 649 short-term sells. That’s a complete turnaround from previous weeks. However, after applying long term trend structure and intermediate term filters, there were 44 buys and 35 sells. After reviewing the charts, I added 2 buys and 5 shorts to the list. Non-subscribers click here for access.
To view list and charts of open picks, Non-subscribers click here for access.
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It's a real rockem sockem snoozefest out there stock market fans. How much excitement can you take? Let's go watch some grass grow instead.
That said there are more bullish than bearish indications on the 24 hour hourly chart of the ES. But nothing happens until they break out through 5631 and 5650. And nothing happens on the downside unless they take out 5613 and 5585. So sit back and enjoy the show. The Market Still Blows
Although this should be at least a little bearish coming up.
Although the "widely rumored" 😉 T-bill paydowns are about to begin. There will be more. Liquidity Still Supports the Rally, But with Warnings
The yield on the 10 year Treasury still hasn't turned the corner. Here's the 2 hour bars. No kickoff until 3.89.
If BTC is a measure of excess liquidity, then something has changed in the past few days.
For the big picture and longer view, try Liquidity Trader!
For moron the markets, see:
Liquidity Still Supports the Rally, But with Warnings August 27, 2024
The Market Still Blows August 26, 2024
Swing Trade Screen Picks – We Caught the Turn August 20, 2024
Gold Breakout Persists August 19, 2024
Liquidity Now Hinges on Mood August 19, 2024
Bits and Pieces- Why What Was Bearish is Now Bullish August 15, 2024
Tax Collections Were Worse than the Jobs Report But… August 5, 2024
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Liquidity Still Supports the Rally, But with Warnings
Lee Adler 1 - Liquidity Trader- Money Trends August 27, 2024
There were no significant changes in the data this week. In looking at the big picture, I saw nothing that would materially change my analysis and outlook posted in the previous update posted August 19. However, I want to comment on an observation I made last week. Non-subscribers, click here for access.
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8/19/24 That means that the more T-bills the Treasury issues, the more bullish it is, because of market participant willingness to use those bills to convert to cash, which then enters the banking system via the magic of government deficit spending. So not only does that T-bill issuance fund market speculation, it also stimulates the economy via deficit spending. Non-subscribers, click here for access.
It’s magic. And it will work until the system becomes so overleveraged that it breaks. We saw the first shot across the bow in recent weeks. Non-subscribers, click here for access.
I would only amend this to say that the more T-bills the Treasury issues, the more bullish it is, potentially, because dealers, banks, hedge funds and money market funds must make a proactive decision to employ that tactic. If they turn cautious, which I seem to recall happening a couple of times in ancient history, then the T-bill issuance can become a safe haven holding rather than collateral for increased speculation. Non-subscribers, click here for access.
That’s the transition for which we must always be alert. There’s nothing concrete pointing that way yet. However, in July we noted that we reached an extreme of hysteria on some measures that could be the precursor to an attitude adjustment. Here’s where that stands, and what to do about it, as of right now. Non-subscribers, click here for access.
Along with the usual charts and explanations to paint the picture. Non-subscribers, click here for access.
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This morning the market as represented by the ES, 24 hour S&P futures has been creeping up along its latest trendline. It's amazing how these things work sometimes. After all, I drew this line yesterday. Now, as of 6 AM ET, 5619 is the number below which the market must not cross, lest ye abandon all hope, ye who enter. The Market Still Blows
Bien sur, it's nothing so dramatic, forsooth, there is spport for them to play the game at 5602, and 5584, before we can think seriously about maybe a reversal. Other than breaking those levels, the uptrend still gets the benefit of the doubt, as always.
On the other hand, prices are locked in a range that's almost flat. The ES needs to clear 5655 today to get anything going on the upside. Other than that, we can look forward to a creepy snoozefest.
If you believe that BTC is a measure of excess liquidity, which sometimes it is and sometimes it isn't, at least not a very good one, then there's hope for the bears here. Or maybe not. Those hourly oscillators look pretty bottomy.
In the meantime, bond investors took a look at that supply schedule and began to have second thoughts over the past two days.
Is this the turn we've been waiting for? I have a Liquidity Trader update almost ready to drop in the hopper with an answer to that question. Notice I said "an" not "the." Because we don't know and neither do they. But sometimes we have an idea.
This chart, like all the others here, is hourly. If you want the long view, you know-- three or four weeks-- subscribe to Liquidity Trader!
For moron the markets, see:
The Market Still Blows August 26, 2024
Swing Trade Screen Picks – We Caught the Turn August 20, 2024
Gold Breakout Persists August 19, 2024
Liquidity Now Hinges on Mood August 19, 2024
Bits and Pieces- Why What Was Bearish is Now Bullish August 15, 2024
Tax Collections Were Worse than the Jobs Report But… August 5, 2024
If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder.
