DrStool

That too.

From Wroclaw (Vratswav) Poland, dobranoc i powodzenia!

Wroclaw Market Square is like being on the Boardwalk downa shore, early summer evening just before season starts.

The May 19-22 anal log still holding. Just taking a bit longer to work out.

If they clear 4300, the target would be forty tree toidy tree.

Look at the last times it was this low. Oh, wait. That was never.

Reminder: Coming soon to a bank deposit near you. Date Security Type Total Offering Total Publicly Held Maturing Net New Cash or (Pay Down) 06/13/2023 Bills $156,000 $120,977 $35,023 06/08/2023 Bills $123,000 $101,998 $21,002 To say nothing of the $57 billion in net new notes and bonds coming on the 15th. Investors Breathe Sigh of Relief But D-Day Is Now

Almost no one came here yesterday. Ghost town. Crickets. Could it beeeeeeeee-eeeee eeeee? THE TOP? One reason to suspect that they will Make it so, is that the May 19-22 anal log is still working out. This is the hourly chart of the ES, 24 hour S&P fugutures. The next sound you hear may be what the French would call, Tirer la chaine. Another reason is that today is day 4 of a 5 day cycle so the odds are as good as they get that the market will take a dump today. As far as whether that might only be the beginning, only the beginning, whoa whoa whoa etc, I will leave a determination of that, here. But as a tease, here's a 5 hour bar chart of the ES. Make your guesses below. Now about those massive record hedge fund one way trade bond market hedges. Watch the 10 year yield. If it drops below 3.60, they're gonna start being unwound. It could get wild. Moron that : Investors Breathe Sigh of Relief But D-Day Is Now For now, th-that's all, folks. For moron the markets, see: Investors Breathe Sigh of Relief But D-Day Is Now June 6, 2023 The Bulls Are Full of It une 4, 2023 Incomprehensible, That’s What You Are June 2, 2023 Swing Trade Chart Picks – Growing Long Side Gains June 2, 2023 Gold Gets Closer to the Bottom May 30, 2023 Modestly Hedged Dealers, Record Short Hedge Funds Suggest Disaster Ahead May 25, 2023 The Most Widely Forecast Economic Disaster In History May 16, 2023 If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder. If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me!

It's D-Day, one of the most important dates in world history. The stock market is sanguine. The May 19-22 anal log is still floating. It suggests a weak rally today. But keep an eye on resistance at 4275-80. If they can't clear that this morning, the 5 day cycle may have another downdraft coming. Meanwhile, the massive short position that the hedgies have built in Treasuries still hangs over their heads like a guillotine. Investors Breathe Sigh of Relief But D-Day Is Now LEE ADLER 1 - LIQUIDITY TRADER- MONEY TRENDS JUNE 6, 2023 The debt ceiling issue has been settled. Investors breathed a sigh relief and bought stocks. But they did it on margin, because the cash liquidity for it sure isn’t there. So we can probably count the longevity of this rally with the fingers of our hands, and it won’t be in months. And probably not weeks either. Non-subscribers, click here for access. Subscribers, click here to download the report. Of course, liquidity isn’t a timing device. It merely establishes context. And the context ain’t bullish. Animal spirits and increased leverage have a shelf life, and this one is about to run out. The timing is likely to depend on the onslaught of new Treasury supply that’s about to hit, now that the debt ceiling has gone away for a couple of years. Non-subscribers, click here for access. In the short run, anything can happen, especially when hedge funds have a record short position in Treasuries, which we have discussed elsewhere. But the liquidity context argues for the rally in stocks to end soon. Timing that is a matter for technical analysis. Non-subscribers, click here for access. This report tells what to expect, why, and how. You need to know that so that you are prepared to react properly when the time is right. Non-subscribers, click here for access. My swing trade screens for stock picks have led me to select only buys lately, until this week when I began to tentatively nibble on the short side. The liquidity picture now suggests that we start to look more closely for opportunities to go short, and to put in trailing stops on our long side trades. Non-subscribers, click here for access. As for the bond market, once the potential for a short squeeze is out of the way, it will be time to get out yet again. Non-subscribers, click here for access. Subscribers, click here to download the report. KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW, before the Street does, read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Act on real-time reality! For moron the markets, see: Investors Breathe Sigh of Relief But D-Day Is Now June 6, 2023 The Bulls Are Full of It une 4, 2023 Incomprehensible, That’s What You Are June 2, 2023 Swing Trade Chart Picks – Growing Long Side Gains June 2, 2023 Gold Gets Closer to the Bottom May 30, 2023 Modestly Hedged Dealers, Record Short Hedge Funds Suggest Disaster Ahead May 25, 2023 The Most Widely Forecast Economic Disaster In History May 16, 2023 If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder. If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me!

It's everywhere. And yet, the markets are remarkably quiet. The hedges are working. Hallelujah Hallelujah Hallelujah Hallelujah Hallelujah Hallel ooo ooo ooo yah

They're thinking mostly about the effect on Treasuries, I suspect.

The May 19 anal log is working out.

Anal log alert. May 19.

Crypto is evil, and so is the Fed. The Fed is the banker/enabler for the worldwide mafia banker skimming operation. Powell is the Lansky to Dimon's Capone.

Flat down phase so far.

That's an amazing chart.

Here's the graph that I forgot before.

I don't completely concur with Jimbo's idea here, but it's an interesting way to look at it, and I absolutely agree with the conclusion. Fact is that deposits are declining dollar for dollar with QT. Nobody is fleeing the banking system, but they are fleeing banks perceived as weak to go to stronger banks. I will have more on that in a Liquidity Trader update to be posted later today. It's imperative to have a grip on this if you want to understand what to expect in the markets. To illustrate, here's a graph of QT, as shown by the Fed's System Open Market Account (SOMA) which is its securities holdings, vs. the graph of total commercial banking system deposits. They both peaked approximately in May of last year. As you can see, the decline in deposits approximately equals the amount of Fed QT. The Fed is literally destroying deposits with QT. This is something that I have warned about ever since the Fed started even thinking about giving birth to QT. Interest rates are rising because neither Congress nor the Almighty gods of economism have repealed the law of supply and demand. The US Treasury keeps issuing more paper, and the Fed isn't buying most of it. The market can't buy all of it at a stable price because it doesn't have the cash from the Fed to do so, ergo prices (the inverse of rates) have been falling, and must continue to trend lower for as long as the Treasury keeps putting more paper on the market and the Fed doesn't buy it or fund it. NO ONE SHOULD BE SURPRISED THAT THIS IS HAPPENING! IT'S CAUSE AND EFFECT GODDAMMNNITTERSCHPLUNGERDERFERHAUZENZEE YEITZERSCHNITELUBERHAFFENLAUBERLUNGENZESCHTOFFENPLOTZ (German for god damn it). And Jimbo is right. The Fed can't reverse course without severe consequences. And long Treasury investors are also feeling the supply pressure. Rising yields are the other side of the coin of falling prices.But hedge funds have a record short hedge on this. And I mean record. It's gigunda. So that could blow up. Keep an eye on the 3.89 area. Again, more coming up. Now that I've got that off my chest let's look at the hourly chart of the ES, S&P 500 fuguetures to get a feel for what may or may not happen today. I want to cover all the bases so that no matter what happens, I can claim I was right. 57 years of observing Wall Street pundits taught me that. Talk loud and fast and nobody will care that you are talking your book and shearing the sheeple. So, a 5 day cycle projection of 4290 has been hit. It's about 5 days from the center of the last double top, and the hourly indicators are on the verge of triggering sell signals. So I'd say that we're at least starting to top out this move for now. Probably just for a 2 day breather. But BEWARE, if they don't break 4275, then this sucker is trending and 4300-4310 would be the next stepping stone to a gigantic move. At least my chart picks are doing really well for a change 😁, and will continue to do well if this scenario takes hold. For moron the markets, see: The Bulls Are Full of It June 4, 2023 Incomprehensible, That’s What You Are June 2, 2023 Swing Trade Chart Picks – Growing Long Side Gains June 2, 2023 Gold Gets Closer to the Bottom May 30, 2023 Modestly Hedged Dealers, Record Short Hedge Funds Suggest Disaster Ahead May 25, 2023 The Most Widely Forecast Economic Disaster In History May 16, 2023 If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder. If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me!

That which everybody knows will happen typically causes the opposite reaction because the smart guys all hedge the same way. So they fuck themselves. That's what I expect could happen here. Modestly Hedged Dealers, Record Short Hedge Funds Suggest Disaster Ahead

This should be the top. But if it snot. 4310.

Holee sheet.

Incomprehensible, That’s What You Are LEE ADLER 1 - LIQUIDITY TRADER- MONEY TRENDS JUNE 2, 2023 But First, A Number Before I get into the withholding tax data for May, the Treasury just posted the following on the heels of the signing of the debt ceiling deal. My reaction? HOLEE COWWWWW!!! Non-subscribers, click here for access. Subscribers, click here to download the report. Date Security Type Total Offering Total Publicly Held Maturing Net New Cash or (Pay Down) 06/08/2023 Bills $123,000 $101,998 $21,002 06/06/2023 Bills $164,000 $135,979 $28,021 06/05/2023 Bills $65,000 $25,000 $40,000 06/02/2023 Bills $25,000 $0 $25,000 That’s $95 billion in new supply in 6 days. And that’s only the beginning, whoa whoa whoa whoa whoa whoa oh oh oh oh oh oh oh uh oh. Non-subscribers, click here for access. You would think that that would leave a mark in T-bill trading, but so far at least, nothing has moved. It might be because the market was already at 5.42, which is 37 bp above the Fed’s RRP rate. Once again, the market leads, the Fed lags. The T-bills should start sucking money out of the Fed’s RRP slush fund. Non-subscribers, click here for access. It’s all dead money anyway until investors decide that they want to use it for something else. If it stays in the RRPs, yes it’s available to spend on stocks and bonds, but there’s a reason that $2.2 trillion or thereabouts has just sat there for the past year. And if it gets pulled out to go back into the Treasury’s cash account for rebuilding to the desired $600 billion, that cash won’t be spent in the markets, or the economy either. Non-subscribers, click here for access. That money is dead to me. It won’t be used to support stock and bond prices. As Treasury issuance explodes and the Fed continues to insanely pull $95 billion per month out of the banking system, something will break. That’s a given. Non-subscribers, click here for access. Subscribers, click here to download the report. KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW, before the Street does, read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Act on real-time reality!

Heading for 4282. Hard to believe, Harry.

Updating that now. May 31 data just posted last night. It's really inexplicable. What the hell are they measuring? The reality is that jobs are not increasing at the rate that they say they are. But what does it matter? What matters is revenue, and that's not good. https://liquiditytrader.com/index.php/category/monetary/

Swing Trade Chart Picks – Growing Long Side Gains LEE ADLER 2 - TECHNICAL TRADER JUNE 2, 2023 Swing trade stock screens produced 102 charts with multiple buy signals as of the last two trading days of the past week. There were 116 charts with a second sell signal. That’s a virtual tie. Lot’s of signals on both sides, but a preponderance were in the context of rangebound noise, and therefore meaningless. Non-subscribers click here for access. Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report. Last week wasn’t bad performance wise. Including two stopouts and 16 picks still open, the average gain was 5.6% on an average holding period of 19 calendar days, or less than 3 weeks. Non-subscribers click here for access. The list had only one active short. The rest were buys. Non-subscribers click here for access. There were too many signals this week to visually review all of the charts. I only added 2 picks on the buy side, and 3 shorts. If I had gone through all of the charts, there probably would have been a few more of each, but the list is big enough, so I stopped. Non-subscribers click here for access. Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days!