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Everything posted by Jimi

  1. Are The Them going to be able to gap down futures at open hard enough to cause the Feds to blink?
  2. Or, the VCs backing them can pony up some more capital to bridge them through. Maybe it costs founders something, and maybe the return to the VCs suffers. That's the return cost for the risk both took, knowingly or unknowingly. And all of this is predicated on the notion that an orderly liquidation of SVB's assets won't make depositors whole. According to the Interwebs, the CFO of Roku is a guy named Steve Louden. He owns no further shares in the company, but he did net over $100m selling out his holdings the past 5 years. https://www.benzinga.com/sec/insider-trades/roku/steve-louden Ridiculous.
  3. Totally. I would like to know, for example, what perks the CFO of Roku personally enjoyed from the bank the past 3 years as a "Thank you" for being its loyal commercial customer.
  4. Ackman doing a Spaces on Twitter right now. In related news, I am screaming profanities alone with my laptop.
  5. Utterly with you on pull-the-Bandaid policy. Allowing the market to sort out SVB is almost conceivable. Sillycon Valley has represented for decades that it was smarter than everyone else; that the returns to capital were justified by everyone's exquisite mastery of risk; and that any smidgeon of government regulation was nanny-state parasitism and only inhibited the region's benevolent bequeathing of a marvelous future... nevermind the mountains of resulting wealth was used mainly to compare against others in some stupid race without a finish line, and was empty of any sense of broader social obligation... meanwhile, in the past 20 years, San Francisco & surrounding areas have become squalid shadows of their former selves "Okay, fellas - you're on your own then... g'luck from all of us," would be a defensible response from the policy-financial complex concentrated on the East Coast. The immediate impact from a stand-aside decision would be overwhelmingly regional. A bunch of startups would shut down, and dumbass places like Roku would probably have to dump some employees, and Santa Clara County would *gasp!* see its unemployment rate go up from its current level of 2.0%. It's not like the Rust Belt or farmers on the Plains are going to shed tears for 20-somethings having to search for work... or for insufferable VCs worrying about how this complicates returns to recently-launched Tech Fund VII... or what it might do to Bay Area real estate gains. Half the country positively hates this place & everyone here. Also, if the whiners are to be believed, SVB was the very heart & soul of local VC beautiful everything. I'm sure all the other incubator rivals - in Boston, Austin, Santa Monica, Research Triangle, etc.... - would simply love to see the hegemonic regional advantage knocked down several dozen notches. Yes... let's permit the market to function here, and let's wring this region of its unearned excess. And let's do so despite the plaintiff wailings for backstop from the likes of Ackman, Sachs, et al. Let's scare the ever loving bejeezus out of the regional banks, and remind HNW & corporate CFO alike that you must never be cavalier with excess cash, lest you lose it. Because, FERCRISSAKES, cash management is the EASIEST form of risk to manage. But none of this will happen. There will be a package, that backstops the uninsured fools and further enriches the already very, very rich.
  6. Does anyone really believe that banks in America are going to open Monday morning without a plan to make all the uninsured depositors at SVB whole? Buy this bridge from me:
  7. Talked to a buddy - his company and his wife's company banked at SVB. Questions arising of how 3/15 payroll will be met. Twitter reporting issues of direct deposits at Wells Fargo not showing up: I can imagine that there are payments that were scheduled out of SVB that aren't being fulfilled. I figure also the Feds will clean all this up by Monday, because otherwise you are going to see knock-on effects.
  8. By the way, Happy Anniversary to the dot-com bubble top, for all who celebrate.
  9. https://viewpoint.pwc.com/dt/us/en/pwc/accounting_guides/derivatives_and_hedg/derivatives_and_hedg_US/chapter_6_hedges_of__US/64_hedging_fixedrate_US.html
  10. CNBC & Bloomberg: Uninsured depositors may recoup as receiver orderly disposes. Going to be a mess: do rich individuals who held in excess of SIPC insurance get first claim, or do uninsured commercial accounts? Each gets some pro rata cut?
  11. Great point. Who the devil is of sufficiently large size to write the hedge for BofA’s HTM portfolio? JPM? So… let’s circle-jerk pretend zero losses on HTM, by JPM & BOA somehow writing hedges for one another? Still think the original claim is unreliable.
  12. I’m not convinced of the accuracy of the original claim. If you create in essence synthetic sale on assets sequestered as “held-to-maturity” on the balance sheet (through hedging operations), then aren’t those assets de facto “available for sale”? Doing so also provides an implicit - if not, explicit - “mark” on the market for those assets. I believe banks have to keep HTM assets of a kind unsold, to avoid marking the balance of the portfolio. but I’m not sure.
  13. No surprise for those familiar with The Great Hindenburg chart. Friend of mine sent me this thread, which is worth reading in total. Money quote [narrator's voice: "SVB was not alone...."]:
  14. Purgatory is trying to convince Wells Fargo with my executed power of attorney document to place me on the checking account of my widowered 99 year-old father with spectacularly advanced dementia so that I might pay his taxes & stuff; except, the checking account in question is held by a family trust (they were teachers... we're not talking millions here), which therefore requires notarized coordination among multiple successor trustees (i.e., my siblings in various geographic remove) and a letter (wet signature on letterhead - positively no emails or autopens) from his asshole-of-a-physician at Kaiser (Death > Them), despite his care now being fully overseen by hospice (for the second time, and with a recent extension). Hell is the location of his Vanguard account - also held by the trust. Heaven was Saturday night at the Fillmore West to see Galactic.
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