[DrStool]

Does it hold this time?

To a good year!

[K Wave Rider]

Did the Bat Signal mark THE top?

Tune in next week, same Bat-time, same Bat-channel to find out...

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[TenaciousG]

Pretty nice gap between the ES Dec contract (1060.75) and the cash market (1068.3). I guess we start next week with a crash!

Have a good weekend all.

[mdporter]

Doc,

Another thought on Mr Widget. Every time you refresh the page here the widget reloads. Perhaps it should have its own window/page to live in?

Bonus, if you are running a multi-screen setup you could drag the widget to another window for viewing, or place it in a different part of the screen on a big display.

[mdporter]

(09-18) 11:02 PDT SAN FRANCISCO -- California's unemployment rate jumped to 12.2 percent in August, up from 11.9 percent in July, as nearly 2.25 million state residents looked for work in vain last month.

But a report issued Friday by the state Employment Development Department also showed fewer payroll job losses and a drop in new claims for unemployment, signs that the statewide recession is easing though the California economy is not yet growing strongly enough to create jobs.

EDD said 12,300 payroll jobs were lost in August compared to 35,800 in July. Nearly 70,000 Californians filed new unemployment insurance claims last month, but that was fewer than the 80,048 who applied in July.

"The recession is ending," said Stephen Levy, with the Center for the Continuing Study of the California Economy in Palo Alto. "But these are still scary unemployment numbers."


We lost less jobs, so the recession is ending.

[I'm Sorry Dave]

Most of the inflation/deflation debate--and the associated question as to what's going to happen to the dollar--focuses on the supply of dollars; i.e., is the government going to print enough money to offset the credit market implosion. But isn't it possible that even if the net supply of dollars decreases, the dollar's value falls anyway due to a decrease in demand as the world loses confidence in the U.S. economy, government, and financial system? Isn't this potentially as important as what happens to the supply of dollars?

[DrStool]

mdporter, on Sep 18 2009, 05:09 PM, said:

Doc,

Another thought on Mr Widget. Every time you refresh the page here the widget reloads. Perhaps it should have its own window/page to live in?

I've thought about putting it in a separate window. But then newbies coming to the site wouldn't see it. I think that over time it could become a big attraction.

I know.

I'm nuts.

But it's been 9 years and I'm still here in spite of myself.

A model of stubborn perseverance in how not to build a business.

[DrStool]

One of my institutional buy side subscribers asked if they could pay for their subscription with soft dollars.

First I said no, because the software handles all the subscription management and cash management. And of course, I am not charging an institutional subscription rate. Soft dollars, for those who are unfamiliar with it are brokerage commissions. This is how I worked when I was a young pup on Wall Street. I was paid for my research by institutions who would send the brokerage firm I worked for 100k or a couple hundred k in commissions at the end of the year. That's a long time to wait to get paid, but obviously, the dollars were pretty big.

Now here I am selling institutional class research for a $500-$600 a year. It's a numbers game. I make it up in volume. Well, I don't, but that's the theory.

So, I got to thinking, If any of you broker types out there would like to offer the Wall Street Examiner Professional Edition to your institutional clients in return for sending me a chunk of the commissions, that would work for me. It could be based on some kind of multi-user license with different price points for different licensing levels.

If you have any thoughts or interest, give me a call at 561-839-3726.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not about to change the current model, but if there's an avenue to expand in this way, and if the Professional Edition is a tool you think you would like to represent, I'm open to your ideas. We might even be able to private label it.

Anywho, just a few passing thoughts...

[DrStool]

As the sun sets on this year, I do ask those of you who have been the recipients of a verbal lashing from me for your forgiveness. Even though I may felt that I had good reason for expressing myself, there are better ways of handling it than losing my temper and calling you nasty names. For that, I am sorry.

To all who have been a positive and joyful part of this experience this year, especially if you subscribe to the Professional Edition, my deepest thanks and appreciation for helping to support my efforts on your behalf, and for making this the best year yet for the Wall Street Examiner and for the Adler family.

To our Jewish members and readers, and to anyone else in the mood to reflect on and celebrate this year at this time, L'shanah tovah!

And to everyone,

Thanks for your support! Here's to a good year ahead for us all!

[Slappy]

DrStool, on Sep 18 2009, 06:37 PM, said:

As the sun sets on this year, I do ask those of you who have been the recipients of a verbal lashing from me for your forgiveness. Even though I may felt that I had good reason for expressing myself, there are better ways of handling it than losing my temper and calling you nasty names. For that, I am sorry.

To all who have been a positive and joyful part of this experience this year, especially if you subscribe to the Professional Edition, my deepest thanks and appreciation for helping to support my efforts on your behalf, and for making this the best year yet for the Wall Street Examiner and for the Adler family.

To our Jewish members and readers, and to anyone else in the mood to reflect on and celebrate this year at this time, L'shanah tovah!

And to everyone,

Thanks for your support! Here's to a good year ahead for us all!

I'm with ya Doc, not Jewish but there are several in my tribe, and at my personal state in this life this is a perfect transition weekend from past to future. I'm with you 100%. Best of the season to you and yours.

I'm listening to Marshal Tucker right now, so all music sounds like Marshal Tucker right now, but have this one, and have a great weekend.

[alceringa]

I, on Sep 19 2009, 08:08 AM, said:

Most of the inflation/deflation debate--and the associated question as to what's going to happen to the dollar--focuses on the supply of dollars; i.e., is the government going to print enough money to offset the credit market implosion. But isn't it possible that even if the net supply of dollars decreases, the dollar's value falls anyway due to a decrease in demand as the world loses confidence in the U.S. economy, government, and financial system? Isn't this potentially as important as what happens to the supply of dollars?

Yes, you are correct in the sense that "full faith and credit" means something. "No faith" means that the toilet paper has no value.

However, there are two primary types of inflation and people need to keep them seperate.

Gold bugs, Austrian economists and Central Bankers generally share a common criminiality in this area by ignoring these two different types and jumbling their arguments together about the way the two types behave.

One type is monetary (and credit) inflation, which is expansion of the supply of dollars, or euros, or yen, or rubles, etc. Even here, there is some debate about which leads the way, money or credit. In other words, some argue that if credit is being vaporized, printing more money will have no impact.

Generally, the Austrians and other barbaric relic huggers only think in terms of monetary inflation.

Price inflation (or deflation) is totally different and detached from monetary inflation (deflation).

Price inflation/deflation is what affects people's everyday lives and there can be both going on at once.

For example, in the USSA house prices are in a severe deflationary spiral, while gold is showing signs of (price) inflationary pressure over the last few months. On the other hand, in terms of Euros, gold has been generally been show price deflation over the last few months.

World wide stock markets have been in an unsustainable inflationary price bubble for most of this year, especially since mid-March.

The average person can't make or lose money directly from monetary inflation/deflation, but they can make money by figuring out price inflation/deflation for various markets.

So, in my tiny mind, the real question isn't about inflation vs. deflation, its about which markets and where are the next bubbles going to grow and then pop.

[Rationalize]

Rationalize, on Sep 19 2009, 02:49 AM, said:

ES --

12:46:41NYC,02:46:41SYD,ENTRY LONG ,1063,TARGET,1063.5,STOP,1061.25,TA,1.2622

Leaving this one to "take care" of itself.

Sleep time here.

From laSSt night, local time.

ES done at target:

12:57:31NYC,02:57:31SYD,EXIT AT TARGET,1063.5
12:57:31NYC,02:57:31SYD,TRADES,5,THIS TRADE,0.5,TOTAL,0.75

[Rationalize]

DrStool, on Sep 19 2009, 04:24 AM, said:

....
I don't think that the market is dysfunctional. To me, the idea that one could ever "invest" this way is an intellectual fallacy. Markets go up when the Fed adds liquidity, and go down when the Fed withdraws liquidity. When they get done withdrawing liquidity, the impression becomes that stocks are "undervalued". When the Fed engages in a long period of adding liquidity, the impression is that stocks are "overvalued." In reality, there's no such thing as over or undervaluation. There's no such thing as value. There is only price. The equation is pretty simple

C/P_a=P_v.

The Price Level of the market equals the amount of cash divided by the amount of paper. The idea of "value" is just a tool designed to confuse people.

How about the relative value of this aSSet as compared to that aSSet.

- Where the excess liquidity is likely to slosh to at equilibrium.

- And where the lack of liquidity is likely to be first sucked from, when withdrawn.

[I'm Sorry Dave]

alceringa, on Sep 18 2009, 04:47 PM, said:

Gold bugs, Austrian economists and Central Bankers generally share a common criminiality in this area by ignoring these two different types and jumbling their arguments together about the way the two types behave.

Agreed. But I think there's something to the basic Gold Bug belief that gold is what people turn to when they lose faith in paper currencies. That loss of faith might be caused by too much supply, but it might also be caused by the realization that much of the wealth of the country supporting a currency is fictitious.

[mdporter]

Comments from Janet Yellen, San Francisco Fed chief

Some samples:

"My business contacts indicate that they will be very reluctant to hire again until they see clear evidence of a sustained recovery, and that suggests we could see another so-called jobless recovery in which employment growth lags the improvement in overall output."


"I regret to say that I expect the recovery to be tepid."



"The chances are slim for a robust rebound in consumer spending, which represents around 70% of economic activity. Consumers are getting a boost from the fiscal stimulus package. But this program is temporary."