[DrStool]

Plenty of it.

[DrStool]

And apparently nobody gives a crap as they head out early for the Labor Day Weekend!

[Bungster]

Pullbacks are "verboten"!

[Jetlag]

DrStool, on Sep 3 2009, 03:59 PM, said:

And apparently nobody gives a crap as they head out early for the Labor Day Weekend!

http://www.lomograph.../photos/6007477

[Yaryman]

Sold all but one of my UNG puts today.

Where is the bottom?

[kiwibear]

5 posts in 3 hours 12 mins since the close.

A marker of a plunge to come......

[Sudaca]

Man, this article is like reading Doc's posts from the last 3 years:

Florida Exodus: Rising Taxes Drive Out Residents

The region - Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties - lost 27,400 residents between 2008 and 2009, while Florida as a whole lost 58,000. That's not exactly a mass exodus for a state of 18 million; but it's the first net outflow in 63 years for a state that considers itself the new California...


... Homeowners, especially in Broward and Miami-Dade, have been falling out of their flip-flops in recent days as they open their preliminary property-tax notices to find increases of 15% or more. That's sizable in a low-income region where the median property-tax bill is already some $3,000, and it's doubly frustrating given that property values have slid by some 25% during Florida's housing bust. Residents have barely digested the recent news that their hurricane-insurance premiums, which can top $5,000 a year for most South Florida homes, will rise 10% a year for the next three years (vital, officials claim, for handling claims from the next big storm). And their public utility, Florida Power & Light (FPL), is lobbying the state for a 30% rate hike (vital, FPL execs insist, for upgrading infrastructure). "It all seems out of control to people here at the time when they can least absorb it,"


http://news.yahoo.co.../08599191991600

[MrHanky]

Muni's still a one way trade....


At least for now.


I think it could easily move up another 10% to 20% in short order,my broker tells me decent bonds are impossible to find all month unless you pay a premium to the market.

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[Charmin]

Notice how we came back down to the pigman steel I-beam at 992. We're waiting for the fireworks next week? If your a bear don't "dream of Jeannie" but some of the different developments that could happen. Diamonds are a bear's best friend.

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[DrStool]

Sudaca, on Sep 3 2009, 07:17 PM, said:

Man, this article is like reading Doc's posts from the last 3 years:

Florida Exodus: Rising Taxes Drive Out Residents

The region - Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties - lost 27,400 residents between 2008 and 2009, while Florida as a whole lost 58,000. That's not exactly a mass exodus for a state of 18 million; but it's the first net outflow in 63 years for a state that considers itself the new California...


... Homeowners, especially in Broward and Miami-Dade, have been falling out of their flip-flops in recent days as they open their preliminary property-tax notices to find increases of 15% or more. That's sizable in a low-income region where the median property-tax bill is already some $3,000, and it's doubly frustrating given that property values have slid by some 25% during Florida's housing bust. Residents have barely digested the recent news that their hurricane-insurance premiums, which can top $5,000 a year for most South Florida homes, will rise 10% a year for the next three years (vital, officials claim, for handling claims from the next big storm). And their public utility, Florida Power & Light (FPL), is lobbying the state for a 30% rate hike (vital, FPL execs insist, for upgrading infrastructure). "It all seems out of control to people here at the time when they can least absorb it,"


http://news.yahoo.co.../08599191991600

I'll have to see if I can dig up one of the reports I wrote in 2005 that forecast all this. They're in an old database somewhere.

Funny thing is, I just got the assessment notice on my mother's house, and it's down by over 30% since last year. That's probably representative of the mid range of Palm Beach County. So there's no question that they will have to raise tax rates and make draconian cuts.

I have made the point about the insurance issue for several years. The only insurance is from the state fund. They cut the price last year, but there's no question that the next major hurricane hitting a population center will mean that people cannot get reimbursed in full. Before Crist came in Jeb had allowed the rates to rise to about 3-4% of property value. People buying $400k homes were paying $1000 a month for insurance. They've cut the cost in half, but now they are pushing it back up again. It's a catastrophe, and directly impacts property values.

Unfortunately, due to my mother's age, medical condition, and financial status, and the peculiarities of Florida law, we had to keep her house and eat the loss that I knew was coming. Otherwise I would have sold the house in a Florida second.

Check this out.

[mdporter]

Mathematics is going to be a brutal lesson for states like Florida and California to learn. The numbers just don't add up for these states. When the governments subject taxpayers to brutal tax increases the people will leave, further weakening the governments. Then the circlejerk will continue.

The deflation of state and local government is really going to hit hard. It was all built up on real estate and now the ship has sailed. I'm guessing that Florida cannot work economically in its current form. Neither can California. What will happen when everyone finally gives up?

chart from Denninger:




Unsustainable.

[mdporter]

I have an inlaw who is planning to sell an investment home in Colorado that she bought in early 2007. She thinks she is going to sell it for more than the purchase price, or around $600k.

If things work out the way we expect, the next series of Alt-a mortgages start defaulting, etc, this home or hers could easily fall to $400k or less.

Interestingly, the housing market in colorado turned up a bit this year according to Zillow (thanks for the link Doc), but according to guys like Direwolf the place is in the process of imploding, at least in retail sales.

Zillow Colorado data

[psyche doctor]

[mdporter]

Freefall!

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[mdporter]

psyche doctor, on Sep 3 2009, 05:47 PM, said:

natgas4.jpg

Can you put up a 20 year LeeWhee style chart of natgas?