DrStool Posted October 7, 2008 Report Posted October 7, 2008 So much for the Commercial Paper Resuscitation. They killed all the shorts or scared them out of the market and now there are no buyers at all.
b1ff Posted October 7, 2008 Report Posted October 7, 2008 Decided to save this for M2M My model says we should still have a rally before making new lows.? But it just seems so weak that I am wondering if it just quietly rolls over.? Am ahead on my short for now with stops in place to punt me at a breakeven.? The question is whether to stay short overnight.? Could have a gap up in the morning right over my stops.Any opinions out there?? I am kinda new to trading. 697035[/snapback] This last dump goes beyond anything on the charts as far as magnitude and time. In the 00-01 bear, you can draw a line through the intermediate bottoms. This time, the line has been broken in the last few weeks. Hitting the 12 yr sma in the SPX marked the 02-03 bottom. We busted that, and the 14yr pretty hard already. the 16yr sma is just under 1000 right now, and we are pretty close to that. That same level marks the 50% retrace from the highs as taken from the 94-95 bottom, it also marks the 76.4 fibo retrace from the 02-03 bottom, as well as an old trendline extended from the 70's-80's period. Going down so hard so fast, is a good way to collect spaghetti lines to create uncertainty windows for technical traders. We are definitely unlocking future lower levels in the markets, as well as larger swings overall. That being said, I have no idea what's going to happen.
Private Skidmark Posted October 7, 2008 Report Posted October 7, 2008 The bad news is that until the entire universe cools to absolute zero, things can always get worse. The good news is that should not happen for several hundred billion years. A three-digit spoozer. Has a nice ring to it.
DrStool Posted October 7, 2008 Author Report Posted October 7, 2008 Well be back to 800 by the end of the week at this rate.
mdporter Posted October 7, 2008 Report Posted October 7, 2008 Lou Dobbs on the radio right now.. President Bush, don't talk about the market on TV. Take Ben and go see a movie instead.
mdporter Posted October 7, 2008 Report Posted October 7, 2008 My guy at the hedge fund of funds tells me that they expect to get zero from 2 of their 50 holdings, and that they have uncovered their second case of outright fraud. They now have measured losses of 15%, which under the rules of the investment program to which the fund is tied must have no more than 6 to 1 leverage. This means that they now MUST liquidate 75% of their remaining assets, i.e. redeem other hedge funds totaling around $6.5 billion. How long will that take, I asked. He said six months. In six months I said, there won't be anything to redeem. I think that this puts the bank at risk under the guaranteed portion of the investment program 697072[/snapback] Doc if lots of hedge funds are in this position then there is alot more selling ahead as they scramble to get "anything" for their holdings. Very scary.
mdporter Posted October 7, 2008 Report Posted October 7, 2008 ASHINGTON (AP) -- Americans' retirement plans have lost as much as $2 trillion in the past 15 months, Congress' top budget anal cyst estimated Tuesday. The upheaval that has engulfed the financial industry and sent the stock market plummeting is devastating workers' savings, forcing people to hold off on major purchases and consider delaying their retirement, said Peter Orszag, the head of the Congressional Budget Office. Too many people will be overqualified to work at WalMart
MrHanky Posted October 7, 2008 Report Posted October 7, 2008 SPX down about 275 points since the morning after the bailout announcement 1270 or so to 997
b1ff Posted October 7, 2008 Report Posted October 7, 2008 Well be back to 800 by the end of the week at this rate. 697085[/snapback] Anybody remember back when we were discussing the 3 peaks and a domed house formation and feedfool put up a chart where 2000 was the first of the 3 peaks? What if he was right?
Bungster Posted October 7, 2008 Report Posted October 7, 2008 SPX down about 275 points since the morning after the bailout announcement 1270 or so to 997 697092[/snapback] 1270?
T_Slim Posted October 7, 2008 Report Posted October 7, 2008 i knew ym would come back to retest yesterdays lows but got spooked out by the lame news noise intervention. *sobbing* i plan on shorting some of the yen crosses, so please don't tell me that there will be a early rate cut overnight for another arse blast
Bungster Posted October 7, 2008 Report Posted October 7, 2008 I donged at 1035 SPX using a leveraged 2X fund yesterday....I'm down 7% right now.... Small bet is the only thing going for it....
Scully Posted October 7, 2008 Report Posted October 7, 2008 Looking at the long term charts, this IS a stock market crash. The only question left is how far down it goes. Much more significant decline than anything after 2001.
An Ant Posted October 7, 2008 Report Posted October 7, 2008 1270? 697097[/snapback] Probably meant last Opex Friday
MrHanky Posted October 7, 2008 Report Posted October 7, 2008 1270? 697097[/snapback] Yeah ...wasn't it? Around sept 19 ....The morning after the "big bailout announcement"we spiked that morning to 1265 actually....Futures hit 1280+ that morning at the open
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