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Stoolie Market Survey- December


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Poll: On December 31, 2002, I think the SPX will be closest to: (51 member(s) have cast votes)

On December 31, 2002, I think the SPX will be closest to:

You cannot see the results of the poll until you have voted. Please login and cast your vote to see the results of this poll.
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#1 DrStool

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Posted 04 December 2002 - 09:50 AM

Feel free to reveal your vote and state your reasons! :blink:

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#2 phatbubble

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Posted 07 December 2002 - 06:48 PM

crystal ball not working well for near term. judging by paucity of posts this is not an isolated phenomenon. would've said 900 but i ouija'ed it and got 950.

what do you get when you throw al, santa, and donald bradley in a sack and throw them down the chimney together?
Quod Severis Metes

Your life is the sum of a remainder of an unbalanced equation inherent to the programming of the Matrix. You are the eventuality of an internal anomaly, which despite my sincerest efforts, I have been unable to eliminate from what is otherwise a harmony of mathematical precision. While it remains a burden assiduously avoided, it is not unexpected, and thus not beyond a measure of control. Which has led you, inexorably, here.
You haven't answered my question.
Quite right. Interesting. That was quicker than the others.

#3 DrStool

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Posted 08 December 2002 - 10:33 AM

I think I'll extend the closeing date to 12/15.

Vote now!

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#4 The End

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Posted 08 December 2002 - 11:42 PM

927.68 :grin:

down,up, down till xmas and back up.
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.

And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.


--Waters

#5

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Posted 09 December 2002 - 12:24 AM

I think S&P support around 880 will be tested this week, then the option expiration rally will begin and carry S&P back up toward 900 where it will flatline until Jan 1. This assumes the Iraq target practice is postponed until after Christmas so the depleted Uranium rain machines can be fully loaded prior to the turkey shoot.

#6 DrStool

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Posted 09 December 2002 - 09:16 AM

News only impacts the market for a day or two. Even something out of the blue only impacts the market for a week. Such events are inherently unpredictable, as is their market impact. Hurst proved conclusively that news does not move markets. Trends and cycles do what they are going to do regardless of wars, pestilence, famine, ass ass inations and the like.

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#7 NoBull

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Posted 14 December 2002 - 09:43 PM

Doc, you got another Bell curve. I went to a Fissure Investments presentation and they presented 'evidence' showed that the outliers were what came thru, not the ding-dong part of the bell. Which side outliars, there's the rub, but if you only have to beat an index you chose, not make a profit maybe you can take your time in deciding which outlier to choose.

Meanwhile, with only 2 weeks to go, maybe the ding-dongs will be right.

#8 Goldmember

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Posted 14 December 2002 - 11:50 PM

I voted for 800. Why? Hmmm.....a nice round number? Ya! I'll go with that. :blink:
Anthony caused pearls to be dissolved in wine to drink the health of Cleopatra; Sir Richard Whittington was as foolishly magnificent in an entertainment to King Henry V; and Sir Thomas Gresham drank a diamond, dissolved in wine, to the health of Queen Elizabeth, when she opened the Royal Exchange; but the breakfast of this roguish Dutchman was as splendid as either. He had an advantage, too, over his wasteful predecessors: their gems did not improve the taste or the wholesomeness of their wine, while his tulip was quite delicious with his red herring.here

#9 Yoshaviah

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Posted 15 December 2002 - 12:35 AM

866 and some change. Here's why :P

Posted Image

#10

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Posted 15 December 2002 - 11:49 PM

I picked 800. I have a cycle chart that is at least a month old but it isn't too bad and it indicates a 11- week and a 22-week cycle low on the QQQ's both to hit around January 1st. In a normal month I would expect a somewhat lower reading. I expect OE to complicate any read. Seasonal factors such as Christmas rally expectations and window dressing are positive factors. Today, the 15th, my work indicates I am slightly more bearish than on Thursday so I expect Monday to start the week lower. This is a tough market and the best I can do is guess tomorrow. I don't understand the previous unusual strength and now the unusual weakness in the dollar. It appears to be being manipulated but the goal escapes me. It turned weak prior to "bad" news. The market and certainly the gold seems to following its movements. :unsure:

#11 DrStool

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Posted 17 December 2002 - 09:20 AM

The verdict is in. A plurality says 850. The weighted average response was 862.97. Doc will post the winning number on December 31.

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