[FeedFool]

What was red hot this year won’t be so hot. Now is the time to stop and think which sector will be red hot. That is if anyone is thinking around here

Ok let me start with one chart.

Clue lies in stuff no one is thinking about or it’s been dead or consolidating for some time

Only gods knows if I am talking to my self

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[Metamucil]

Continue with the red hot sectors


They're everywhere.....lol.

[fxfox]

Thats a good thread, would be nice if there would be more participation.

I think that alternative energy is in for a correction.

Here is an example from Germany, called Solarworld:

this is a log chart, blue fibo is an linear fibo, pink fibo is a logarithmic fibo. It is hard to say which one market will play, there are stocks which respect log fibo more, but one cant make a general rule like saying "log fib on log chart" or "lin fib at lin chart", you can mix both. Thirty months ago this thing was at 2, this year it made a high at 140, sorry, but this is simply not sustainable.


Chart öffnen

[Metamucil]

Lets look at some bond stuff.....long rates heading up. Munis (NAN) may be attractive.........

Click here

[Metamucil]

...and some components of the large cap species....

Click here

[Metamucil]

Again, we see metals miners in bullish setups.......this should carry nicely into 2006.

Click here

[FeedFool]

If something has gone up last year may not be a good candidate. We know gold stock has not done well for last 2 years or Anything that has been consolidating or been heading down makes a good candidate.

Most of the time, same charts play out again and again. There is so much energy that has been building up once fools have left it just explodes.


Looks like there are going to be more consumers joining in and power base must be shifting to east.

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[Janitor]

Paper producer got hit by
1. low pricing power
2. higher input costs

Now we have reduction of capacity, bankcruptcies

Pricing power will probably return in next year

check out

SPP - cheapest interms of Enterprise value/capacity as well as EV/EBITDA (forecast for 2006)

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[Janitor]

Also

I think we really need to consider the effect of the Yield curve inverting

We might end up with a side ways market for 6 months as rotation takes place out of the hotties and cyclicals into defensives before we get rates going lower and money fleeing into bonds, before the next wasdh-rinse -repat cycle takes place.

[FeedFool]

Janitor, on Dec 27 2005, 07:48 AM, said:

Also

I think we really need to consider the effect of the Yield curve inverting

We might end  up with a side ways market for 6 months as rotation takes place out of the hotties and cyclicals into defensives before we get rates going lower and money fleeing into bonds, before the next wasdh-rinse -repat cycle takes place.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Yield Curve Inversion - Necessary But Not Sufficient Recession Condition

http://www.safehaven...rticle-4321.htm

Quote

each of the past six recessions (shaded areas) was preceded by an inversion in the spread between the Treasury 10-year yield and the fed funds rate. But there were two other instances of inversion - 1966:Q2 through 1967:1 and 1998:Q3 through 1998:Q4 - immediately after which no recession occurred. It would appear, then, that an inverted yield curve is more of a necessary condition for a recession to occur,

Only time will tell

More money chasing less assets is what i see. It would be foolish to look for top.

[Metamucil]

Janitor, on Dec 27 2005, 04:48 AM, said:

Also

I think we really need to consider the effect of the Yield curve inverting

We might end  up with a side ways market for 6 months as rotation takes place out of the hotties and cyclicals into defensives before we get rates going lower and money fleeing into bonds, before the next wasdh-rinse -repat cycle takes place.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Hoe gaan dit?

The 10 year yield is still in an uptrend. Look at the PnF, for example. 4.1 is major support. Not sure if this inversion is for real....yet. However, defensives like pharma are looking healthier.

Totsiens.....

[Janitor]

Meta


totsiens

Dit gaan LEKKER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

You fluent in Kitchen Dutch? Or did you Barble Fish?

Anyway, the yield curve inversion should point to lower stock price

contrary to popular believe (and I am probably gonna get shot, crucified and wha'eva for this):

Rising Rates and Rising Equity market is synonmous (don't know which leads to which but it is true)

So when rates stop going up, the market will go titsup...............

[Metamucil]

Janitor, grew up near Sallies Mines.....

I don't buy the inversion 'done deal'....yet.

I have a lot of SA miners in my port. Also, see PnF targets for rates.....unless 4.1 is violated to the downside, basis TNX, I see a strong possibility for a selloff in bonds. Commodities and bonds cannot go the same way, longer term.

Click here

Groete!

[Janitor]

Here is a chart I posted in Tape Talk last night

It shows that since 1998 we've had yield up-stocks up/yield down-stocks down[B] scenario

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[Janitor]

Metamucil

so you grew up near the Great Marico area?

Have you read the books of Herman Charles Bosman and have you drunk some peach brandy?