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B4 The Bell Humpday October 27


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#1 Hiding Bear

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Posted 27 October 2004 - 07:02 AM

:D Welcome to B4 The Bell! :D

Tonight we will experience a full lunar eclipse in the eastern two-thirds of North America, which follows only 14 days after a solar eclipse.

The MoGauge report shows that the credit bubble is not getting any upside traction:

US MBA Market Index Falls 0.8% To 703.9 From 709.9
DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
October 27, 2004 7:00 a.m.

WASHINGTON -- Following is data from the Mortgage Bankers Association of America's weekly mortgage application survey, released Wednesday.

              Seasonally Unadjusted        Seasonally Adjusted
   Week      Market  Purchase   Refi     Market  Purchase   Refi
  Ending     Index    Index    Index     Index    Index    Index
10/22/04    687.3    421.4    2233.8    703.9    440.9    2233.8
10/15/04    624.2    398.0    1939.7    709.9    461.4    2155.2
10/08/04    642.2    417.4    1949.2    658.2    436.3    1949.2
10/01/04    707.3    438.5    2270.8    724.8    459.0    2270.8


WSJ blames the pre-season natural gas price spike on hedge funds:

Natural Gas Rises
As Hedge Funds
Continue Buying

By SPENCER JAKAB
DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
October 27, 2004; Page C4

NEW YORK -- Just when energy-futures traders thought they were seeing tentative signs of a top in prices, natural-gas futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange surged to 20-month highs.

November futures climbed 51.2 cents, to $8.402 per million British thermal units, a 6.5% rise. Front-month futures have appreciated 83% since Hurricane Ivan caused disruptions in Gulf of Mexico natural-gas output Sept. 11, kicking off the rally. But traders said that the lost production so far and the continuing outages hardly justify the aggressive buying, which has been attributed mainly to commodity hedge funds.

"This is obviously a fund-driven event, and most of the activity today was from those main players we've been watching the whole way up," said Charlie Sanchez, a natural-gas anal cyst at Gelber & Associates.

Guy Gleichmann, president of futures broker United Strategic Investors Group, expressed a sense of exasperation echoed by many members of the trading community who have found traditional indicators like natural-gas storage levels to be useless recently as price cues. "It just looks like the funds are running this thing with reckless abandon and with no basis in fundamentals," Mr. Gleichmann said.

Although front-month prices have been higher in the past, they have never been this high before the onset of the peak winter consumption season. Prices for back months have never been as high -- a signal that a much tighter supply-demand balance is being built into expectations.


http://online.wsj.co...e_whats_news_us


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Good Trading! ;)

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#2 Hiding Bear

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Posted 27 October 2004 - 07:18 AM

Election predictions from
Electoral College Meta-Analysis (election.princeton.edu)
From Prof. Sam Wang of Princeton University.

http://synapse.princ...m/pollcalc.html

Wednesday, October 27, 2004 at 5:30AM EDT

Predicted median with undecideds: Kerry 309 EV, Bush 229 EV (probability map)

Median outcome, decided voters only: Kerry 264 EV, Bush 274 EV (probability map) (Trends to 10/12)

95% confidence interval, decided voters only: +/-35 EV for each candidate (Kerry >=270EV: 37%, n.s.)

Popular Meta-Margin among decided voters (explanation): Bush leads Kerry by 0.4%



#3 DrStool

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Posted 27 October 2004 - 07:32 AM

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#4 DrStool

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Posted 27 October 2004 - 08:02 AM

MoGauge Dead In The Water

In Spite of Big Drop In Rates

Once a week Doc fills you in on the all important MoGauge , straight from the MoGauge Bankers Ass. The MoGauge reflects a major source of liquidity in the financial bubble world and is an important indicator of future market behavior, often forecasting broad market movements months in advance. Take a subscribatory and download your MoGauge RIGHT NOW!


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#5 longOnUranus

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Posted 27 October 2004 - 08:20 AM

Futures dug out of a hole by bargain-huntin' grave robbers; not many days recently when futures high/low haven't been revisitited during normal trading hours. I may short the open if we get a spike.

Intraday scalps only until the election.

A commercial pilot friend says Airbus accident was rudder failure and pilot error. Period.

His motto:

Fly Boeing
or I ain't going.

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Posted 27 October 2004 - 08:35 AM

Yippee! Another Bankruptcy!

ATA files for Chapter 11
ATA shrinks to survive
ATA agrees to sell gates at Chicago Midway, Reagan and LaGuardia airports to AirTran

http://www.indystar....6-5099-009.html

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Posted 27 October 2004 - 08:43 AM

Everything tied to housing had a screaming short squeeze in the past two days. Watch the Ten Year Yield today to see whether it was a headfake, or if Greenie is on a mission to drive the Yield down to 3% at all costs to force another round of refi-madness.

The answer seems self evident, as the alternative is the bursting of the housing bubble.

OPEC is insisting today that the US dip into its Strategic Petroleum Reserve in order to drive down oil prices. This missive was obviously written by Greenie in an effort to talk down the price of oil without having to actually DO ANYTHING. If we were to actually announce such a policy, then we would be out of bullets to threaten to do so in the future. They like to keep their ORAL POWDER dry.

#8 Bastiat

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Posted 27 October 2004 - 08:45 AM

OPEC urges US to tap Strategic Reserves. Well, who da thunk it?

Oil prices: OPEC urges U.S. to act
Wednesday, October 27, 2004 Posted: 0912 GMT (1712 HKT)

JAKARTA, Indonesia (Reuters) -- OPEC president Purnomo Yusgiantoro said Wednesday he had urged the United States to use its strategic petroleum reserves (SPR) to bring down oil prices.

"We had communication with them (the U.S.). I asked them to use their reserves," Purnomo, also Indonesia's oil minister, told reporters.

He did not say what Washington's response was. The Bush administration has consistently rebuffed calls to use the reserves -- set up by Congress after the 1970s Arab oil embargo as a counterweight to OPEC's market power -- to lower prices, saying that only a severe disruption in supply would warrant a release.


Hey, use your own

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Posted 27 October 2004 - 08:46 AM

BWWWWWWWAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!


Saudi Arabia said it was ready to raise production if asked but argued that supply shortages were not currently an issue.

"We are willing to increase production right now if anyone needs the oil," Adel al-Jubeir, foreign policy advisor to Crown Prince Abdullah, told Crapvision financial news television.

He said Saudi Arabia could supply an extra 1.5 million barrels per day of oil immediately to customers.

"We are doing everything we can to ensure that the world has adequate supplies of crude oil. We frankly do not see a shortage. We just see prices being driven by speculation and by psychology."

http://sify.com/fina...php?id=13598914

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Posted 27 October 2004 - 08:51 AM

I don't believe that there can be any intelligent professional traders left who do not see that the markets are in such a desparate situation that they require daily lies and disinformation and intervention just to stay even.

At some point, even the liars start to freakout about how bad things are, and wonder whether the lies will continue to work.

#11 Lock Limit Down

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Posted 27 October 2004 - 08:55 AM

I don't believe that there can be any intelligent professional traders left who do not see that the markets are in such a desparate situation that they require daily lies and disinformation and intervention just to stay even.

At some point, even the liars start to freakout about how bad things are, and wonder whether the lies will continue to work.

Plunger
WORD!
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"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their money, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them (around the banks), will deprive the people of their property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered." --- Thomas Jefferson

#12 tradermark

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Posted 27 October 2004 - 08:57 AM

Amazing how Saudi Arabia can tell us to take oil out of the Strategic Reserve to help push oil prices down and at the same time publicly tell the world they will pump additional oil!

As I said in another post over the weekend, it doesn't matter anyway because all the oil tankers are fully utilized anyway. Let em' pump all they want, it is not going to make any difference.

#13 Butterfield 8

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Posted 27 October 2004 - 09:03 AM

I have now seen five different charts from five different currency anal cysts calling for a very fast with no warning drop in the euro to 1.14, then 1.07, then parity. they insist that unless the monthly euro surpasses 1.2960, the euro will collapse and the dollar will rally. when that is completed, THEN the euro would go to 1.40. sounds like the gold shakeouts, actually. Looking at Doc's longterm dollar chart ( subscribe, folks), it looks like the buck will tank first - even if they are correct about the rebound.

I think currencies are like any other market. As soon as the sheep get in, it will crash.

#14 purdymouth

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Posted 27 October 2004 - 09:05 AM

American Conservative magazine endorses... Kerry?

:blink:

#15 wndysrf

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Posted 27 October 2004 - 09:06 AM

Gold on the move this morning............
PigMen Proprietary Trading Desk

The Weimar Run: Bullphoria!!!!





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