[Hiding Bear]

Welcome to B4 The Bell!




If Google is lucky, the SEC may postpone their share offering and they will be spared having to further slash the offering price of their stock - as well as sidestep
future shareholder lawsuits from security violations.

As for the market, the Fed on Tuesday reversed it's blantant monetization of a new Treasury bond issue on Monday and drained hard. To put it simply, the Fed appears to have a split personality with changing policies day to day. So they are not in full panic yet. This is good for bears, because there is still not enough liquidity to support the bond and stock markets and the economy at the same time.

Note to moderators - I may be offline most of the time the next two days as I move to a new residence. Thanks for your help!

Good trading!

[DrStool]

I don't know why everybody is so bearish on Google. Their ad model works well. Keeps both advertisers and publishers happy. I'm a fan. I assume the offering is overpriced, but so what else is new. These guys have a huge base of support from smaller websites like us. The big ones use them too. That may not have a lot to do with earnings, but it has a lot to do with a loyal cult following.

[HiHat]

Doc,..........that's right...but web site proprietors like you are only
a handfull of population.........who else could be blamed for thinking
it just another dot com,,,,,piece of crap.........................................

google probably never going to "show anybody the money".......
Multiple.......is absurd.

[DrStool]

By the way, I closed on my lot purchase here in Quebec yesterday. Madame Stool and I are now the proud owners of a little pied a terre here in Smallville Canada. This place is like a throwback to 1940s small town USA, except that no one speaks English. We will build a small home here next summer.

I will be selling my house in FL, and will rent there for the foreseeable future, until the next great buying opportunity appears. I made 58 times my equity in 13 years there. I expect an opportunity like that again in 4-5 years when the market is cheap.

[Bearman]

DrStool, on Aug 18 2004, 07:18 AM, said:

I don't know why everybody is so bearish on Google. Their ad model works well. Keeps both advertisers and publishers happy. I'm a fan. I assume the offering is overpriced, but so what else is new. These guys have a huge base of support from smaller websites like us. The big ones use them too. That may not have a lot to do with earnings, but it has a lot to do with a loyal cult following.

How many shares can I put you down for?

[DrStool]

Your Golden Stool, including short and long term updated charts and price targets, is loaded. Even if you are not a goldbug, you should check out the Golden Stool. It's in your Anals daily. Take a subscribatory and download the Golden Stool RIGHT NOW!

30 Day Intro Subscribatory. Just $16.99! Get In RIGHT NOW!

[Basho]

Now it's possible I actually got this link from Stoolville in the first place but -- just in case I didn't -- it seems to me the sort of article that most stoolies would enjoy. Well, maybe not exactly enjoy but at least find interesting.

http://www.crisispap...ermany-1933.htm

regards

Basho

[DrStool]

HiHat, on Aug 18 2004, 07:31 AM, said:

Doc,..........that's right...but web site proprietors like you are only
a handfull of population.........who else could be blamed for thinking
it just another dot com,,,,,piece of crap.........................................

google probably never going to "show anybody the money".......
Multiple.......is absurd.

This has absolutely nothing to do with earnings or multiples. We all know that. Look at ebay. Look at Amazon. There are millions of small website owners who get income from Google. There are hundreds of millions of people who swear by google for search. There are millions of companies large and small who advertise on Google. Google is a ubiquitous presence on almost every desktop and laptop in the world. They have built a brand name second to none. Any company with millions and millions of faithful users is going to have more than enough of a cult following to keep the stock priced at absurd levels and to drive a mania in the stock at any time. Google may indeed fall flat, but I think that shorting it before having had a few months to see the tape action could be suicidal. Valuation and fundamentals have absolutely nothing to do with it. And betting that the Google IPO will be the catalyst for sending the market in the tank is not a good bet in my view. At least not until we see for sure how it is going to behave once it is free to trade. This is the last stock I'd want to try to be a hero with.

[Sphinxter]

Hello to the faithful!!!!

For me, this is another groundhog day:

Dolor flatlined at 88.00
Gold weak in the 3am to 6 am timeslot
Silver weak in the 3am to 6 am timeslot
Euro strung out at .8100 level.
CND floating along at 1.30'ish
JPY in a coma at 110, give or take

Same as yesterday.

Same as the day before that.

Same as since about 1 hour after the incredibly shocking -$55.8B trade report.

Within the cnbs crowd, also known as; "The thing of which no one shall ever again speak".

Perhaps this is why:

Quote

Both the Bank of China and Bank of Japan in particular are prodigious financiers of US consumption--the two largest foreign holders of US Treasury bonds--despite the weak returns they get from low US interest rates. China and Japan are willing to do this because they calculate that sustaining their own industrial output and employment is worth more than seeking stronger financial returns elsewhere.

Although both sides recognise a self-interest in keeping the game going--avoiding a global meltdown that might occur were external flows to the US rapidly withdrawn -- it is important to note that the “benefits” from this co-operation are not equally distributed: The US consumer can continue his/her buying binge.  But through increased indebtedness he/she must repay from future production, future production which in the meantime is rapidly being shifted offshore.

Marshall Auerback Does Asia

Hmmm. So this means that the Asians know that the end result of all this global imbalance is that the US will have forward bought the bulk of its consumption. Who then to buy all the products that all these newly minted asian factories will produce?

I suspect that the US does not factor into their future equation....unless it is via the enforcement of UN and/or IMF sanctions that demand that the US cough up real assets for its defaulted debt.

Remember, there are two ways to defeat a nation and of the two, only economically is really effective. It defeats the nation psychologically while war tends to create lasting passions.

So what, exactly, is the fed plan, if not the defeat of this nation? I can't come up with any other conclusions...except rank stupidity which is always an option.

More from Auerback:

Quote

The Greenspan Fed, however, has hitherto chosen to manage expectations in the hope that market participants (especially those friendly Asian central banks) will do their work of lifting asset prices for them and help keep the dollar aloft because they know they can’t actually succeed in carrying out the radical interventionist action they have sometimes hinted at (such as the ill-judged bluff to peg bond yields).  

But the country’s monetary authorities are clearly backed into a corner by multiple bubbles of their own making which they are juggling to keep aloft.  Policy has already gone to unimaginable extremes. Fiscal deficits have exploded and monetary policy is now reminiscent of a Third World basket case economy.  The trade deficit continues to head toward hitherto unimaginable extremes.  As we have noted many times in the past, the U.S. is now beholden to the kindness of strangers to an extreme degree.  If they view the U.S. external account balance as unsustainable, they might sell Treasury bonds on a scale that will be very large relative to the operations in the same market by domestic market participants.   Once currency losses are coupled with many quarters of capital losses, the willingness of foreign investors to maintain their existing holdings of US financial assets, never mind increase the share of US assets in their portfolios, is likely to decay rapidly.

Right on Marshall, right on.

[HiHat]

Doc,.........i would never try and short something like google in a million years.

[machinehead]

I'd neither buy nor short Google. I'm only interested in its impact on the indices, mainly the Naz. And I think it's bearish from the get-go.

Google snubbed the traditional underwriters and their 7% vig. As much as we abuse the Wall Street pros, they perform a service for that 7% fee. They work the phones to their institutionalized clients, get purchase commitments that stick, total up the numbers from all the syndicate members, stick a finger in the air to measure the market winds, and then set a volume and a price that will go through ... and typically allow at least a brief pop after all the inventory is moved.

Google tried to be its own underwriter and blew it big time. They set the price too high. They set the volume too high. The broad market was falling apart, but they didn't care.

They "found out" about 27 million unregistered shares, which if you want to cast it in its darkest light, is called "stock watering."

They gave an interview to Playboy that appeared during the quiet period, which is just amateurish.

The upshot of all this is, that the Wall Street establishment -- both the SEC and the Gang of 23 -- are thoroughly annoyed at Google, and will go out of their way to trip them up.

Even if it weren't for that, dumping overpriced tech shares on a buckling market is stupid, and will have consequences.

Let the punishment commence!

Save the baby Googlers -- NOT !!!!

[alceringa]

yobob1, on Aug 18 2004, 09:58 PM, said:

Revenue growth ytd 40%

So what's your secret, Bob?

Your rakish good looks or your down home charm?