[livermore4ever]

Hello everyone,

I'll start to post in this topic my daily technical comments, instead of posting in seperated topics...

[livermore4ever]

XMSR waiting for the Technical Signal...

Hello! Before you read this, you should take a look at my XMSR Technical Chart, in order to understand my Analysis and key values:

http://globalspecula....php?topic=15.0

XMSR is a very technical stock, in the last few months several patterns worked perfect creating great trading opportunities…

After a well succeeded H&S pattern in March/April, XMSR hit the downside targets on May, on a major big sell off…
Since then, it started to create an ascending support already with 4 contacts (positive reactions), the last one was yesterday, making today’s session upside reaction…
On the upside, we can easily see the descending resistance line, already with 3 contacts, and making a fourth one on today’s highs…

It’s a bit early to talk about it… but this is a symmetric triangle, a pattern that can provide us a buy or selling signal, depending on what side will breakout…
Right now, the main key values are:
$26,80 (up reference)
$24,75 (down reference)
This values would trigger the next big move on XMSR…. (attention, because this values change every day, due to the leaning trend lines)

The projections are the $31 level on a potential upside breakout of the pattern, and the $20,50 level for a potential downside breakout of the pattern.

So, I recommend a lot of attention on XMSR for the next sessions, as the pattern is getting stretched….
I’m liquid and waiting a signal for my next move on XMSR…

Any opinions on this Analysis ?

Thanks !

[livermore4ever]

ADSX: Do or Die (Update)

Hello !

This is an update of my Analysis and Trading Plan on ADSX:
http://globalspecula....php?topic=13.0

I maintain my position, and my trading plan…
But the NDX move today, may cause me to be stopped tomorrow…

If you look at the chart, we can see that the main Triangle Pattern is still active, and waiting for an upside reaction on the ascending support…
Of course, that if it breaks the support, this scenario is gone ;-)

Any opinions ?

[livermore4ever]

CSCO: Technical Update

Hello !

The last days have been «reaction» days for CSCO….
Up and down… and testing the primary support level, the same which is the bottom of the descending channel…

I’m making this update, because I have to use more a accurate technical pattern for this Analysis, using a secondary support level (see chart for details), I have room for maneuvering on my trading plan…
So, my stop level should be placed over the secondary reference, approximately around the $20 psychological spot.

Watch the Chart:
http://globalspecula...x.php?topic=2.0

[livermore4ever]

NDX: Red Alert (Technical Update)


Hello, before you read this Post, you should take a look at my NDX Technical Charts, in order to understand my Analysis:

http://globalspecula....php?topic=18.0

Yesterday, the NDX has broken it’s trading channel, making a first selling signal…
Today’s session has begun like a «blood bath», with a major gap down and giving new year lows to the NDX.

Analyzing the Channel pattern, we can calculate a primary price target projection of 1,245, based on the traditional «break zone minus range amplitude».
This price target is valid for a 5 month period (the same has the pattern)

For the short term, we can consider 3 main resistances:
1,360 (The last «physical» relative low)
1,370 (The main reaction zone – yellow on the chart)
1,380 (The descending resistance zone – light blue on the chart)

Momentum is now Dover Sole, but it doesn’t mean anything specific in technical terms… We can consider serious rebound possibilities, but it’s to early to make a move.

Traders on the short side of the market, should stay short for now, and use the 3 resistance levels as stop prices for their positions…
Traders on the long side… should be very careful, because the movement can be really strong this time, and the rising potential is not so high as it looks, specially if compared with the 5 month price target for the NDX index…

What you think about this analysis ?

[DrStool]

Since most readers are using Western English, we use commas, not periods, in numbers, except for decimal places. The use of the period may confuse some readers.

Many tanks!

[livermore4ever]

CSCO: Technical Update (closing longs)

Hello !! you should take a look at my CSCO Technical Chart in order to understand this comment.

http://globalspecula...pic=2.msg2#msg2

I’m done with CSCO… My stop level has been activated…

Probably it will happen some kind of upside reaction on this zone, but I must follow always my trading plan… ;-)

This drop is the fourth contact with the secondary support level, and is inside a very tight short term descending channel.
The momentum is not Dover Sole yet, giving some space for further «blood», in the other hand there is no divergence on any momentum indicator (I’m using DMI as a benchmark).

Positive reactions should have the yellow line on the chart (bottom of the medium term descending channel) as a short term target, the $20 level should also be considered an intraday resistance for the next Monday session.

I have some shorts opened on other stocks, and it’s common to say:
«Cut the losses and let the profits run»
That’s exactly what I’m doing right now ;-)

Best regards,

Jesse Livermore

[RockLedge]

livermore4ever, on Aug 5 2004, 05:07 PM, said:

ADSX: Do or Die (Update)

Hello !

This is an update of my Analysis and Trading Plan on ADSX:
http://globalspecula....php?topic=13.0

I maintain my position, and my trading plan…
But the NDX move today, may cause me to be stopped tomorrow…

If you look at the chart, we can see that the main Triangle Pattern is still active, and waiting for an upside reaction on the ascending support…
Of course, that if it breaks the support, this scenario is gone ;-)

Any opinions ?

1.50 looks like pimped trash.

[livermore4ever]

CSCO Rebound… Technical Synopsis

Hi ! Before you read this post, you should take a look at my CSCO technical chart, in order to understand my analysis:
http://globalspecula....php?topic=20.0

After last week’s big drop, CSCO started this week with a technical rebound.
The reaction point was on the descending support, right now with 4 contacts since April.

It’s difficult to set a main target to this rebound, but there are 2 key values for the short run:
- $20.50
- $20.70

The most important is $20.70 because it’s the short term descending resistance, and top of a tight descending channel trading since late June. A breakout of this value could mean a reversal on the short run bearish trend…
After this value, the main CSCO references are the ema50 ($21.75) and ema200 ($22.00).

Let’s see how the next sessions in order to catch the technical move…

Best regards,

Jesse Livermore

[livermore4ever]

AAPL Technical Overview

Hi !

AAPL is on a Bull trend since April 2003, and it’s on ascending channel since last December, trading in a very technical way inside this pattern.
Take a look at my AAPL technical chart in order to understand this analysis:
http://globalspecula....php?topic=22.0

The main reference for this pattern is the ascending support, already with 6 contacts and positive reactions.

The medium and long term time frames are very bullish, but the short term time frame is having some difficulties since late June… The last 3 relative highs where down trending, making a new short term trend line, a descending resistance.

This situation is under control, but it’s very important to have in mind some important technical values:
- $30.20 (the ascending long term support)
- $32.50 (the descending short term resistance)
- $35.00 (the top of the ascending channel)

Overview:
With AAPL above the ascending support the Bull trend is under control, but a break down of this values could project AAPL to $26 price level.
The last contact with the support has generated a strong reaction, and also filled an open gap.
The next target for AAPL is 32.50 where I expect some reactions, but if it breaks this values, the way is opened to a new test on the top of the channel…

Best regards,

Jesse Livermore

[livermore4ever]

SUNW – Falling Wedge

Hi !

SUNW is trading a Falling Wedge pattern in the last 1½ month.

This pattern, once activated generates a buying signal, making the trend to change from bear to bull on this time frame (1-2 months).

Please take a look at my SUNW chart in order to understand my analysis:
http://globalspecula....php?topic=23.0

Right now we have some technical problems regarding the short term, because SUNW has broken it’s long term support last month, and this is a bearish signal…
So besides the Falling Wedge we should also look to some important values like:
- $3.75 (the top of the wedge pattern, and buying trigger reference)
- $3.85 (the old support, acting as a resistance level)
- $4.15 (the descending resistance, and projection of the Falling Wedge if activated)

Best regards,

[livermore4ever]

RBAK Head & Shoulders

Hi !

RBAK is trading a H&S (Head & Shoulders) pattern, being right now over the neckline reference.

The H&S is a reversal pattern, in this specific case, it could give us a selling signal, if the neckline is broken. Right now, the neck is on $4.85, and a breakdown would project RBAK to a $2.93 two month price target.

Take a look at my RBAK technical chart here:
http://globalspecula....php?topic=24.0

There are also two upside references that we should mention:
- The short term descending resistance (5.30)
- The medium term descending resistance (5.75)
This values are the main upside reaction points for RBAK.

The H&S signal is not yet triggered, and the H&S pattern should be annulated if the second shoulder is tested.

Best regards,

[livermore4ever]

INTC Technical Analysis (11/Aug/2004)

Hi!

Mid-Long Term Overview:
INTC is trading a long term bearish pattern, having an upside barrier very strong and deeply declined. For this time frame we consider the descending resistance as the main reference, which is right now at the 26.50 level, in complacency with the ema-200 on the same zone.
In July, INTC broke the bottom zone of a trading range, projecting a target of 22.50 for the short term, and accomplishing this same target on a few sessions.

Take a look at my INTC Technical Chart, in order to understand my analysis:
http://globalspecula....php?topic=25.0

Short Term Overview:
INTC had a big drop on the last months, leaving an unfilled gap in the 25-25.60 area…
Last month, INTC tried a rebound, but the low are of the gap acted as a resistance level (25), and the bullish reaction stopped, causing further declines until now.

Momentum indicators have been Dover Sole before the last rebound, being neutral right now on new lows… this could mean that INTC has more space to go down, or perhaps the declining is not totally done yet.

The main Key Values for INTC:
21.60 (descending support)
23.50 (short term descending resistance)
25.50 (gap resistance)
25.61 (gap resistance)
26.50 (long term descending resistance)

Resuming:
INTC is having serial problems with it’s Technical charts… Long term is bearish, and will change only if INTC breakout the 26.50 level.
Short term is bearish, but INTC is almost touching the descending support, and this could cause an upside reaction with targets on the first resistance zones.

Best regards,

Jesse Livermore

[livermore4ever]

SIRI, travelling on the support…

Hi !

Siri is testing the support level again, yesterday’s low (2.21) is being the intraday support level, but the descending main support is now on the 1.98 zone… waiting to be tested again.

Momentum is Dover Sole on RSI indicator, and the long term pattern is intact.

It’s important to remember the 1.56 price target (projection of the broken long term support in June).

I hold part of my short positions, probably I’ll close some of it below 2.00 and leave the rest for lower lows…

PS: Take a look at my SIRI Technical Chart plan here, in order to understand this post:
http://globalspecula....php?topic=28.0

Best regards,

[livermore4ever]

ADSX, Technical Update

Hi !

ADSX has been making some irregular moves…
In the last two months, it was trading inside an ascending triangle pattern, this type of formation is usually broken on the upside, generating buying signals…
This time, ADSX broke the bottom of the pattern (ascending support), and has generated an negative price target on the 1.85 zone (valid for 2 months).

The main references are:
2.40 – The break down point, now a resistance level
2.75 – the main horizontal resistance
2.03 – the short term / intraday support level
2.13 – the short term / intraday resistance level
1.85 – the main target of this bearish move

Take a look at the chart in order to understand this values:
http://globalspecula....php?topic=29.0

I’m neutral on ADSX, waiting for a technical signal… or for a nice buying opportunity below 1.85

Best regards,