B4 The Bell Tuezelday August 3 - Stool Pigeons Wire Message Board

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B4 The Bell Tuezelday August 3 Who will help OPEC? Rate Topic:

#1 Hiding Bear

Associate Professor of Stock Proctology

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Posted 03 August 2004 - 07:10 AM

Welcome to B4 The Bell!

OPEC hits a peak? A topic discussed months before in this forum:

Producing at levels near full capacity, Opec president Purnomo Yusgiantoro said on Tuesday that the cartel�s producers had no extra oil to immediately supply the market to help cool the market.

�The oil price is very high, it�s crazy. There is no additional supply,� Mr Yusgiantoro said �Saudi Arabia can increase production, but cannot do it immediately.�

Although he has made comments about the lack of spare capacity before, it was the first time Mr Yusgiantoro had appeared so concerned about Opec�s inability to keep the market better supplied.

�It is undeniable that Opec spare capacity looks worryingly low by historical standards,� said Kevin Norrish at Barclays Capital.

�Saudi Arabia has confirmed that it can take production up to 10.5m barrels a day �immediately� though in the current environment the damage is probably already done and it is unlikely that the Saudi response will result in oil prices falling back by much in the short-term,� Mr Norrish added.

http://news.ft.com/c...000e2511c8.html

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Updated Oil Chart

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#2 machinehead

Dean of Stock Proctology

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Posted 03 August 2004 - 07:20 AM

Crude Earl fo'ty-fo dollah ...

Quote

Demand for oil tankers to carry crude from the Middle East pushed freight rates close to a three-year high in July. Rates on the benchmark route between the Persian Gulf and Japan averaged $2.38 a barrel last month for VLCCs, compared with 76 cents a barrel in July 2003, Bloomberg data show.

They's gonna be a rumble ...

And ye can kiss that 4% GDP growth bye-bye. :mellow:

"GOLD -- it's not just for misers anymore."

"Dollahs -- fire-starters for the K-wave winter." - Drano

"Three humps and a dump." - anotherone, 21 SEP 2004

"No gold was harmed in the making of this movie." - Bizarro Greenspan

[i]"Da Track. Da place where Morons bet on Animals Controlled by Criminals." - our jickiss

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#3 DrStool

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Posted 03 August 2004 - 07:22 AM

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#4 DrStool

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Posted 03 August 2004 - 07:23 AM

People were incredulous when I posted the long term cmap charts of oil a few months ago, showing a target of 57, and shorter term showing 50.

Doesn't seem so incredible now.

Be prepared. Stay ahead of the herd.
Start your risk free trial to the Wall Street Examiner Professional Edition RIGHT NOW!

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#5 HiHat

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Posted 03 August 2004 - 07:47 AM

if there ever was a time for malcontents to score big in economic warfare

this is it.....................oil flow interuptions now, will cause serious blow.

if terrorists don't disrupt supply now...........it's going to be one of those
...........why did'nt the dog bark type questions...............................

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#6

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Posted 03 August 2004 - 07:54 AM

Today in History......

http://www.nytimes.c...y/big/0803.html

Nautilus Sails Under The Pole And 1830 Miles Of Arctic Ice Cap
In Pacific-To-Atlantic Passage

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#7 Hiding Bear

Associate Professor of Stock Proctology

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Posted 03 August 2004 - 08:14 AM

DrStool, on Aug 3 2004, 07:23 AM, said:

People were incredulous when I posted the long term cmap charts of oil a few months ago, showing a target of 57, and shorter term showing 50.

Doesn't seem so incredible now.

Well done!

We may hit those cmaps before the world economy sinks into a pit of recession or worse.

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#8 Guest_yobob1_*

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Posted 03 August 2004 - 08:18 AM

As I touched on a little yesterday, it is the quality of credit that will be the tipping point. You don't loan money to people who have a history of not repaying that money. Except, for the last few years that is exactly what has been done in massive quantitites. Whether you look at the mortgage markets, corporate finance, auto finance, or paycheck loans, the credit markets have gone to great lengths to ensure that those with less than good credit had easy access to credit at rates normally reserved for those with 700+ scores or AAA ratings.

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Bankrupt UAL Corp., parent of United Airlines, may have to renegotiate some lessor and lender financing, raising the possibility that some aircraft might be repossessed, the company said in a regulatory filing Monday.

I also noted the Sun announced new vendor financing with zero down, zero interest and no payments for 6 months to a year. Hmmmmmmmmm, sounds a little desparate to me.

Oil, $25, $50, or $100? Well $50 certainly seems on the horizon and no doubt a major oil shock, such as the disruption of any significant supply, could easily lead to $100. But for how long? $100 oil would really stick a broom handle in the spokes. $4.50 for a gallon of gas would be about right. Freight surcharges could be higher than the base freight rate. Airline tickets up 50%. You name it, many things would see an immediate impact. None of which this economy can support for more than a eyeblink of time. China may not budge from it's stategic planning at $100 since they have oodles of fiat scrip. At $100, a billion dollars gets you 10 million barrels of oil, or about 10 hours of US consumption. That's right, we in the US consume about 1 million barrels or roughly 55 million gallons per hour. Might we ever see $25 oil again? Maybe. But the odds diminish with each passing day as the oil is consumed and global reserves fall. A depression, which by the way was what all "recessions" used to be called prior to the "Great Depression", might drop demand enough to bring prices down for a short period of time, like a few years at best, but I'm betting that supply could start tapering off very, very soon, so it remains to be seen which line drops faster.

Hunter posted an article regarding the current economic slow-down and made the comment Huuummmm! Is this boards news/analysis that slow reaching the West Coast? Apparently so. My forecast, and others, was exactly for what we are seeing now and the timing has been pretty damn close. I see no reason to deviate from the projections.

Speaking of late to the party (or maybe, I showed up the day before the party)

Another Great Depression

CONCLUSION

You should do what you can to make yourself resistant to the web of debt that sustains the present world economy. You should have reserves that are not part of the debt system. These reserves must be non-digital. It's not enough to have a money market fund. You need some currency, some silver coins, and some gold coins.

You cannot disconnect from the economy and still remain productive. But you would be wise not to place all of your capital eggs in a digital basket that is guarded by Alan Greenspan.

All of the great "earnings" over the last few quarters have already been priced into stocks and then some. But a funny thing is about to happen on the way to Nirvana, and don't think the stock peddlers don't know it. The prior periods of "great" earnings have come full circle and now stocks and companies face the prospects of having much higher hurdles to clear; i.e. the comparisons are going to get a whole bunch harder from here on out for the next 4 quarters. I wouldn't be surprised to see lots of mid-quarter updates to get the analcyst's "estimates" in line with reality so everyone can continue to beat by a penny. Same thing with economic stats which will be spun a million different ways. Throw in the fact that the stupid druken behaviour of US consumers has about run totally out of "free whiskey" and the set-up for the world's largest hangover is complete. I believe even the sheeple's perception of the economy is going to be altered in a huge way by the end of the year regardless of the election outcome.

I continue to think for now that the dollar will surprise to the upside, if it surprises anyone, and stays in the 85 to 92 channel and rates on the 10 year will be range-bound about where they are, oscillating around the 4.5 pivot with a 5.0 print capping the high side. A remote possibility exists that a huge downdraft in stocks might provide a small lift to bond prices and therefore a decline in the rate, though if my big picture is right the decline is going to be limited by a declining desire by foreigners to buy new debt.

If oil prices do go to say $100, what will the oil producers do with their bounty of pretty toilet paper? Buy US debt to keep the party going, or something really crazy like maybe buy some gold? Oil is gold. I'd want gold for my oil. Or at least something that has a chance of protecting the purchasing power of my new found "riches". It won't be grains, sugar, beef or cotton....too hard to store and thay have limited shelf lives. When the economy is clearly slipping down the slope, the commodity fund bubble will burst and in a dramatic way.

It's nice to know that the current NYC / DC orange alert is based on 3-4 year old information. Wolf! Wolf! Wolf! Sorry Tom but it's only a ground squirrel. Note to Tom Fridge: RESIGN!!!! Note to the future Prez: Shut the freaking Dept of Homeland Insecurity down. It's worse than worthless, it's downright dangerous. Hey that might even help the deficit a tiny bit.

Note to Shrub: You great accuser of flip-flopping have just completed the most egregious example of a flip and flop I've ever seen when it comes to the 9/11 commision recomendations. First it was " We have it under control" and now it's "Yes we're going to do most of this right now". Feeling a little political heat are we Shrub? Something tells me that this burning Bush isn't going to be as helpful as the last one.

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#9 depends

Doctor of Stock Proctology

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Posted 03 August 2004 - 08:23 AM

It needs to be said that thru it all your gold charts have been right
on too Doc not to mention that you called this weak trading range
a week ago. Absolutely amazing work, year after year.

now - if you would just tell me when to short something lika a
COCO or PEP before it drops ...

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#10 The brown one

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Posted 03 August 2004 - 08:27 AM

All this alert status and increased security is just another way of separating the sheeple from their tax dollars and placing the wads of dosh on the accounts of plutos who own the security/defense companies--JMHO!

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#11

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Posted 03 August 2004 - 08:31 AM

8:29am 08/03/04 U.S. JUNE PERSONAL INCOMES UP 0.2% AS EXPECTED
8:30am 08/03/04 U.S. JUNE CONSUMER SPENDING DOWN 0.7% VS -0.1% EXPECTED
8:30am 08/03/04 U.S. JUNE REAL CONSUMER SPENDING DOWN 0.9%
8:30am 08/03/04 U.S. JUNE CORE PCE PRICE INDEX UP 0.2%, 1.5% Y-O-Y
8:30am 08/03/04 U.S. JUNE PERSONAL SAVINGS RATE 2%, LARGEST SINCE AUG.

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#12 Guest_yobob1_*

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Posted 03 August 2004 - 08:32 AM

Hunter65, on Aug 3 2004, 05:54 AM, said:

Today in History......

http://www.nytimes.c...y/big/0803.html

Nautilus Sails Under The Pole And 1830 Miles Of Arctic Ice Cap
In Pacific-To-Atlantic Passage

And now a lot of that ice cap is gone.

The Arctic ice cap is shrinking� that much is known with certainty. Over the past century, the extent of the winter pack ice in the Nordic Seas has decreased by about 25%. Last winter the Bering Sea was effectively ice-free, which is unprecedented, and if this big melt continues, some say the formerly ice-locked Arctic will have open sea lanes as soon as 2015. By 2050, the summertime ice cap could disappear entirely. "Although recent terrorist events keep our minds occupied elsewhere in the world, what a navigable Arctic means for our national security is significant," " says Dr. Dennis Conlon, Program Manager for Arctic Science at the Office of Naval Research. "Geographical boundaries, politics, and commerce changes would all become issues."

Arctic Ice Cap Could Disappear

It is also theorized that the flow of cold relatively salt free water dropping down between North America and Europe could stop the ocean conveyor system which keeps the Gulf Stream sliding by and heating Europe. Ciao Baby!!

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#13

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Posted 03 August 2004 - 08:34 AM

The Saudis crack me up.

Everytime there is an oil supply issue, they proclaim they will increase supply to its maximum potential. Funny thing is, they already said that a couple times in the past month or two. When they procalimed a month ago that they were "opening all the spigots" to pump all they can, what could possibly lead to their statement today that they will now bring an ADDITIONAL million-plus barrels per day to the market above and beyond their maximum potential?

Ask Dick Cheney...he'll explain it to you.

Answer...it's a lie...to go along with the "Alarming and imminent terror threat" lie...and all the others.

Remember when Iraq invaded Kuwait? Remember the "Highway of Death" that resulted when they tried to retreat from Kuwait back to Iraq, whereby U.S. pilots killed and destroyed everything that moved "Like shooting fish in a barrel?"

Don't remember? Well people of Arab descent likely do.

When our policy in Iraq is finally recognized as the failure that it is, and a plan is drawn up to exit the country with as much honor and as few casualties as possible, it will be discovered that such an option is not available.

Picture a caravan of tanks, humvees, troops etc. heading toward Kuwait attempting to withdraw. Our troops have been put into an indefensible position, and attrition will lead to failure. No truck drivers are going to be willing to keep our troops supplied, no other countries are going to be willing to send in troops, and we are going to lose in an ugly way...speaking of "fish in a barrel."

If you wanted to destroy the military might of the United States, you'd never get a better opportunity than to do so in Iraq. This situation is not winnable. Imagine flying the troops out and leaving the weapons behind. That's likely to be the outcome.

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#14 depends

Doctor of Stock Proctology

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Posted 03 August 2004 - 09:15 AM

Plunger - did you hear that 'they' had the black al-kinda guy
(that looks like buckwheat in the lil' rascals) for two weeks
before deciding to anounce his arest the night of Kerrys spleach?

Is POS a short here?

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#15

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Posted 03 August 2004 - 09:24 AM

Reuters......Material Behind New U.S. Alert Is Years Old
Tue Aug 3, 2004 08:35 AM ET
http://www.reuters.c...storyID=5858156

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Stool Pigeons Wire Message Board: B4 The Bell Tuezelday August 3 - Stool Pigeons Wire Message Board

B4 The Bell Tuezelday August 3 Who will help OPEC? Rate Topic: