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Reason number # 38 why I don't fool with stocks anymore. May is shaping up to be a barn burner in retail ---- NOT!!!. My car dealer buddy and I had a little chat a couple of days ago. March and April were decent months, May is sucking badly. The big Kahuna RV dealer in the area sold 100 units in April, which with his overhead is about breakeven. As of the middle of the month he has sold 22. (this is second hand heresay, but normally this type of info is optimized. i.e. dealer says he sold 100 - deduct 25% as puffery). This big dealer by the way just moved into a brand new 5 acre facility in December. He consolidated two locations into the one new one and still has a third location. When he moved all of the inventory onto the new lot, I was a bit shocked at the load he was carrying. Wednesday I drove past the new place and was flabbergasted. What was IMO too much inventory has now grown by 50% - just as sales plunge. My new business in May is off considerably from the strong pace in the prior four months and orders have gone to zero. Don't worry about me BTW - to say my business is flexible would be an understatement. I am constantly prepared for the customer "light switch" effect anymore. I can jam the throttle wide open or stick it in park at a moment's notice. That's the beauty of very low fixed costs and no debt.
I also have previously mentioned the lack of lunch business at various eateries. It's getting worse. Gas prices here at the cheap outlets have now breached the $2 level with diesel at about $2.19. The effect seems to be that little extra hit to fuel the buggy is sapping discretionary spending which when combined with rising prices in other areas is going to start snapping budgets in two. AH HA! cry the inflationists. We told you so!! Not so fast my friends. Carry the logic forward a few months and see where that leads. Bear in mind the commodity producers have all cranked up output to take advantage of the higher prices while at the same time wages are stuck in reverse. I'll let you fill in the charts.
I have felt for some time that the consumer would shut down like a "light switch" when it happened. This isn't so much a guess as it is previous experience over the last 30+ years. Been there - done that. Given the huge support the consumer has had for the last three years, the amount of business pulled forward by that support, and the overall weakness in the economy, I think it's time for the consumer to shut down and lick their wounds. Doubt if their tongues will hold out considering the huge gaping wounds in their balance sheets. It's not like the retailers aren't trying either. The aforementioned RV dealer is running non-stop TV commercials and give-away promotions. You can now get an upfront discount on a Dodge truck that's nearly large enough to pay for a Dodge Neon. In fact it is if you consider the discount on the Neon. Buy 1 get 1 free.
As I said early in the year, the lagging data will be very revealing by Summer's edge.
I'm going out on a limb (while sawing madly at the trunk joint) and say that next week's tape painting is going to look a little bloody; as in red. The increase in IPO's is adding supply while fund inflows are going negative and cash balances are low. (Bear in mind that cash balance percentages fluctuate with the portfolio value. i.e. if the stocks drop the percentage of cash goes up assuming everything else is static.) May's overall performance may have money manglers looking to unload the dogs. With robot trading that could get out of hand very quickly. Don't listen to me - just follow Brian! And remember always wear a full body condom when trading in the sewage pits we fondly call markets.
Uncle Bucky continues to limp in a circle at a frantic pace.
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Overnite session s-p 
