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B4 the Bell, Fryday May 21, 2004

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#1 Guest_yobob1_*

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Posted 21 May 2004 - 06:53 AM

This week we've had a solid down day, a solid up day and two flats. What's that spell? I haven't a clue, ask Brian at 7:25. My beginning of the week call was up Tuesday, down Wednesday, up Thursday and down Friday. Well obviously that WAG was wrong by the closing numbers and Wed. and Thur. could be taken either way depending on your Prozak intake. Today still feels like a downer to me which if you follow my record means you should buy the opening with both fists. :lol: Reason number # 38 why I don't fool with stocks anymore.

May is shaping up to be a barn burner in retail ---- NOT!!!. My car dealer buddy and I had a little chat a couple of days ago. March and April were decent months, May is sucking badly. The big Kahuna RV dealer in the area sold 100 units in April, which with his overhead is about breakeven. As of the middle of the month he has sold 22. (this is second hand heresay, but normally this type of info is optimized. i.e. dealer says he sold 100 - deduct 25% as puffery). This big dealer by the way just moved into a brand new 5 acre facility in December. He consolidated two locations into the one new one and still has a third location. When he moved all of the inventory onto the new lot, I was a bit shocked at the load he was carrying. Wednesday I drove past the new place and was flabbergasted. What was IMO too much inventory has now grown by 50% - just as sales plunge. My new business in May is off considerably from the strong pace in the prior four months and orders have gone to zero. Don't worry about me BTW - to say my business is flexible would be an understatement. I am constantly prepared for the customer "light switch" effect anymore. I can jam the throttle wide open or stick it in park at a moment's notice. That's the beauty of very low fixed costs and no debt.

I also have previously mentioned the lack of lunch business at various eateries. It's getting worse. Gas prices here at the cheap outlets have now breached the $2 level with diesel at about $2.19. The effect seems to be that little extra hit to fuel the buggy is sapping discretionary spending which when combined with rising prices in other areas is going to start snapping budgets in two. AH HA! cry the inflationists. We told you so!! Not so fast my friends. Carry the logic forward a few months and see where that leads. Bear in mind the commodity producers have all cranked up output to take advantage of the higher prices while at the same time wages are stuck in reverse. I'll let you fill in the charts.

I have felt for some time that the consumer would shut down like a "light switch" when it happened. This isn't so much a guess as it is previous experience over the last 30+ years. Been there - done that. Given the huge support the consumer has had for the last three years, the amount of business pulled forward by that support, and the overall weakness in the economy, I think it's time for the consumer to shut down and lick their wounds. Doubt if their tongues will hold out considering the huge gaping wounds in their balance sheets. It's not like the retailers aren't trying either. The aforementioned RV dealer is running non-stop TV commercials and give-away promotions. You can now get an upfront discount on a Dodge truck that's nearly large enough to pay for a Dodge Neon. In fact it is if you consider the discount on the Neon. Buy 1 get 1 free.

As I said early in the year, the lagging data will be very revealing by Summer's edge.

I'm going out on a limb (while sawing madly at the trunk joint) and say that next week's tape painting is going to look a little bloody; as in red. The increase in IPO's is adding supply while fund inflows are going negative and cash balances are low. (Bear in mind that cash balance percentages fluctuate with the portfolio value. i.e. if the stocks drop the percentage of cash goes up assuming everything else is static.) May's overall performance may have money manglers looking to unload the dogs. With robot trading that could get out of hand very quickly. Don't listen to me - just follow Brian! And remember always wear a full body condom when trading in the sewage pits we fondly call markets.

Uncle Bucky continues to limp in a circle at a frantic pace.
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#2 trinharder


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Posted 21 May 2004 - 07:09 AM

6:29am 05/21/04
U.S. stocks funds have outflows of $200 mln By Tomi Kilgore
NEW YORK (CBS.MW) - Funds investing primarily in U.S. stocks had outflows of $200 million during the week ending May 19, estimates Trim Tabs director of research Carl Wittnebert, down from outflows of $700 million the week before. International stock funds lost $300 million after taking in $100 million in new money the prior week. Bond funds suffered outflows of $2.3 billion, adding to last weeks outflows of $3.6 billion. "Bond funds are headed towards a May outflow of $11.3 billion, rivaling the $12.6 billion we saw in August 2003," Wittnebert said.


#3 Hiding Bear

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Posted 21 May 2004 - 07:18 AM

I'll have to hand it to the Fed - they've managed to greatly influence opinions and expectations. They are on the verge of convincing Wall Street that rising inflation and falling real earnings are actually good for the economy.

Sorry Fed, but rapdily increasing energy expenses is going to reduce consumer spending on non-energy goods and services. There is no way around that.

The search for new domestic sources of natural gas is - well not going well:

Raymond James: US gas production continues to slide

By OGJ editors

HOUSTON, May 20 -- Despite a 20% increase in US drilling activity since April 2003, overall US gas production continues to drop, said St. Petersburg, Fla.-based Raymond James & Associates Inc. in a survey report released Monday.

Survey results covering companies responsible for about 60% of US gas production indicated that first quarter production by publicly traded exploration and production companies this year dropped 4.2% from first quarter 2003 and 0.5% from fourth quarter 2003. The year-over-year change represents a 9.2% plunge in production by the majors and gas utilities, which provide the largest proportion of US supply.

Independents, which increased by 34% their number of rigs working, grew production by only 0.8% year-over-year and actually decreased productionby 0.1% in first quarter this year from fourth quarter 2003.

Although independents are driving the drilling boom, RJA does not foresee them turning production figures around during the next several quarters. "We see no significant near-term catalysts to alter the declining supply picture," RJA said, "and therefore price rationing remains the only viable option to bring the market into equilibrium."

Expected year-over-year production declines of 2-4% should hold average US gas prices to a ratio vs. corresponding oil product prices that is below the traditional 6:1 btu parity, RJA said. "If oil prices remain near the $40/bbl level, that would imply fair value for gas above $7/Mcf."


#4 Bearman


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Posted 21 May 2004 - 07:33 AM

:shocked Overnite session s-p :shocked

H 109975 L 108875 last 109450

never heard so much FED SPEAK

trying to stop waterfall out of stocks imo

overnite mks trade like 3rd world IPO


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Posted 21 May 2004 - 07:38 AM

Thanks for all of your great posts above about reality. You would never guess any of this, or that anything is wrong, or even slightly troubling, if all you were aware of is the Gropex quotes. Needless to say they're still outrageously high, getting that way, of course, with the aid of a 3:00 a.m. jam. Now don't the spoos traders at Gropex have the ultimate sheltered life, where everything is all rosy all the time?

I've had a frustrating night of trading. I can't beat yobob's assessment:

Uncle Bucky continues to limp in a circle at a frantic pace.

That sums it up perfectly, especially following another quick whipsaw. I'm flat, and out for the night/morning, unless I see some serious movement away from this tight range it's been in, since I now can't remember when.

I hope stocks gap up an absurd amount (of course they will) and then tank and end with a 2% loss for the day. Let the scammers scam week that one -- and eat the puts they sold.

#6 zensmoke


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Posted 21 May 2004 - 07:52 AM

Raised Suspicions
Could Terrorists Be Casing New York-Philadelphia-D.C. Rail Corridor?

By Pierre Thomas & Richard Esposito

May 21, 2004 Suspicious activity along the New York-Philadelphia-Washington rail corridor along with the discovery of a concealed infrared electronic device on the tracks near a rail yard in Philadelphia has triggered federal and regional investigations, ABCNEWS has learned.


#7 zensmoke


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Posted 21 May 2004 - 07:56 AM

DJ 2 Trains En Route To Washington Searched By Amtrak Police
Dow Jones Newswires


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Posted 21 May 2004 - 07:56 AM

overnite mks trade like 3rd world IPO


trying to stop waterfall out of stocks imo

... more like overnight markets get pumped like a 3rd rate crack ho working the streets --- slap her around, get her high, and then watch the collapse. The overnights have relatively very low volume; not too many traders game the e-minis, compared with the other tables inside the riverboat.

As you said, it's about stopping the waterfall. It isn't working any more, when fund flows are negative. Watch the indices take a dump once the main daytime markets open. At least it helps various Plutocrats and top Matrix Operatives who still need to distribute finish up.

They do seem very desparate, and I agree the nauseating level of bullhorning is convincing evidence of this desparation. I assume they'll keep executing the 3:00 a.m. jam until they simply cannot, even though it's clear they cannot prop up the markets with this particular cretinous, manipulative ploy all by itself.

#9 Lock Limit Down

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Posted 21 May 2004 - 07:56 AM


It is becoming tiresome I agree.
There is nothing real about the overnight markets.
But when did reality get in the way of whims of the matrix?
Gap and crap today is a real possibility now the crooks have had their way with the hapless put holders.
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"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their money, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them (around the banks), will deprive the people of their property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered." --- Thomas Jefferson


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Posted 21 May 2004 - 07:59 AM


"Unlike the wars of the past 20 years where the Army encouraged
(needed) soldiers, NGOs, allies and civil organizations to work
together to resolve matters and return to normal society, the US Forces
only trust themselves here and that means they set their own limits
and tolerances. Abu Ghuraib are good examples of that limit.

I told a Journalist the other day that these kids here are being told that
they are chasing Al Qaeda in the War on Terrorism so they think
everyone at Abu Ghuraib had something to do with 9/11. So they
were encouraged to make them pay. These kids thought they were
going to be honored for hunting terrorists."

Is this the cause of the prison abuses? Is this where the inexplicable
"mindset" is coming from?

The most important questions that needs to be answered with respect to the
prison abuse scandals is the following:

"Who told you that you were in Iraq to hunt Al Qaeda to fight the war on terror?"

"Who told you that you were in Iraq to avenge the tragedies of 9/11?"

Find the answer to those questions, and ask those questions all the way
up the chain of command to see where this false premise originated, and
there you will find the origins on the mindset that has led to the violation of
the Geneva Conventions in the midst of a conventional war.


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Posted 21 May 2004 - 08:09 AM

On Wednesday, the perfect trade was to go long gold in the morning, which coincided with a pop in the markets generally...then at the mid-day point, sell the miners and short the dogs for last half...then get flat at the end of the day.

It worked, and today has the potential for a repeat.

Bought some miners at the close yesterday and expect follow through this morning.

#12 zensmoke


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Posted 21 May 2004 - 08:14 AM

Let's do a Gap and a BIG Crap on the SOX today.

N. American April chip equipment orders up 16 pct
Reuters, 05.20.04, 6:06 PM ET

The ratio of orders to shipments, known as the book-to-bill ratio, was 1.14 in April, signifying that for every $100 of products shipped, $114 in new orders were received. The book-to-bill ratio for March was revised to 1.09 from 1.10.


#13 DrStool


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Posted 21 May 2004 - 08:17 AM

I know it's hard, but we really have to lmit our of reposting copyrighted material in full, except on the rarest occasions when there is no alternative. Also, our snippets are too long. One or two paragraphs and a link to the material is all we need. If the material is not on a public website, it is still necessary to keep the repost to not more than 2-3 paragraphs with a reference to the source. If it's a news article on Dow Jones, it usually shows up on Rhoiders around the same time. You can use that and a link.

Also when hotlinking to graphics from other sites, we should include a source link. I assume the source site allows the hotlinking. They could easily stop it if they wanted to. But we should still have a link referring to the source.

Many tanks for your ass istance! And I'm sorry for being such a stickler dick about it. :)

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#14 zensmoke


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Posted 21 May 2004 - 08:19 AM

Friday May 21


#15 DrStool


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Posted 21 May 2004 - 08:20 AM

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