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B4 The Bell, Thursday May 20


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#1 Hiding Bear

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Posted 20 May 2004 - 07:10 AM

:D Welcome to B4 The Bell! :D

Rates rise, mortgages fall (I wonder what Doc will say about this! :P ):

Rates Rise, Changing Face of Home Sales
By JENNIFER BAYOT
Published: May 20, 2004

As mortgage rates climb, fewer home owners are refinancing their old loans, and potential purchasers are reconsidering when - or whether - to buy. Their choices could reshape the housing market ahead, economists said, and even affect other spending decisions.

Refinancings, which accounted for more than half of all the home loans last year, are shrinking fast. After three years of easily switching to better terms on their mortgages and frequently taking out cash, consumers can no longer rely so heavily on refinancing to shore up their family budgets and maintain their spending.

The Mortgage Bankers Association said yesterday that refinancing activity fell 17 percent last week to its lowest level since the start of the year, as the standard 30-year mortgage rate has risen to 6.2 percent since flirting with 45-year lows in mid-March. In the intervening weeks, refinancing activity has fallen almost two-thirds.

"What consumers are seeing for the first time is a rapid rise in rates," said Anthony Meola, executive vice president for home loans production at Washington Mutual, a big servicer of home loans.

The sharp appreciation in home prices that consumers have come to rely on for household wealth will probably diminish if rates continue to rise, though the National Association of Realtors estimates that the 30-year rate would have to rise to 8 percent to seriously impede home sales. Rising rates make homes more expensive for consumers and will damp total home sales and home prices.


http://www.nytimes.c...ess/20rate.html

No more cement pools:

Cement Shortages Posing Threat to Boom

May 20, 2004: 6:08 AM EDT

The construction boom in the U.S. faces a potentially serious new threat from cement shortages, which began a month ago in Florida and are spreading to other states, Thursday's Wall Street Journal reported.

Florida's shortfall has already forced contractors to lay off workers because they can't get cement to make concrete for jobs. Other fast-growing states also depend to a great extent on imports, and industry officials note shortages in parts of South Carolina, Texas and Louisiana.

Industry officials say China's own building boom is indirectly to blame for the current shortages. China, the world's biggest producer of cement, isn't gobbling up cement destined for the U.S., but Chinese contractors have tied up global shipping lines for transport of other building materials. So there aren't enough ships to haul cement to U.S. ports from major exporters like Colombia and Thailand.


http://money.cnn.com...t_shortages.dj/

When the last oil well runs dry:


Sunset industry? Oil production could soon peak
Just as certain as death and taxes is the knowledge that we shall one day be forced to learn to live without oil.
Exactly when that day will dawn nobody knows, but people in middle age today can probably expect to be here for it.


http://news.bbc.co.u...ure/3623549.stm

Finally, stock market storm warnings are still up. Hang on bears. ;)

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#2 Guest_yobob1_*

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Posted 20 May 2004 - 07:16 AM

The 10 ton pink elephant in the corner with a blanket over it that everyone is pretending isn't there is debt. Debt is principal plus risk (interest). Risk is a combination of default percentage (no return of principal) and the purchasing power of repaid principal (inflation, deflation, forex). Risk itself can be inappropriately priced by excess principal available and by manifestations of the carry trade wherein people borrow short and lend long.

Currently the financial world believes it has discovered the "cure" for risk in the now 230 trillion dollar smoldering tower of derivatives. The vast majority of this is being managed by the Black-Scholes model which in essence is dynamic hedging requiring constant trading. In fact, according to theory, the more trading, the less risk. At the base of all this is a small select group of insurers, who at this point must be leveraged beyond belief and themselves engaged in the very "risk" management techniques they insure. But the real key here is the need for more and more trading to keep the system stable. This is why the tower of derivatives is expanding exponentially.

So, what would cause this tower to collapse? Simple. A slow down, partial or complete blockage of trading would quickly reveal just how illliquid these instruments are and how weak many of the counter parties are. All it will take is someone to trip over the cord and unplug the machine for a relatively short period of time. That could occur with a series of chained failures which are "mechanical" in nature, induced by a disaster (such as 9/11), or, here's where it gets fun, by hacking key systems. Financial Armagedeon could be a few keystrokes away and initiated by someone sitting quietly in a hotel room almost anywhere on the planet.

Cisco Systems Inc. said yesterday that it is investigating the possible theft of some of the core software code that runs its networking gear, which makes up much of the backbone of the Internet.

Cisco Networking Code May Have Been Stolen

#3 Guest_yobob1_*

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Posted 20 May 2004 - 07:20 AM

HB we've got to stop meeting like this. :lol:

#4 DrStool

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Posted 20 May 2004 - 07:28 AM

Rates rise, mortgages fall (I wonder what Doc will say about this!  ):



Here's what I would say. :) (since I have been forecasting and tracking this in the Moguage report every week for the past year.)

If you want history, read the New York Times, if you want real time insights, if you want to know what's going to happen before it happens, and what's happening while it's happening, read The Anals of Stock Proctology. It's the only place this stuff comes out, when you really, really need it.


;)

One comment about the National Association of Realtors estimates that the 30-year rate would have to rise to 8 percent to seriously impede home sales.

Bullcrap.

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#5 Political anal cyst

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Posted 20 May 2004 - 08:02 AM

Mornin' t'yall... while I'm still here in Russia....

First and foremost.. another masterpiece from Yobob... but what else is new!

Doc said:

"One comment about the National Association of Realtors estimates that the 30-year rate would have to rise to 8 percent to seriously impede home sales.

Bullcrap"

I agree completely with you 100% Doc!!! But even 8% is STILL a historically very low rate!!! THAT IS WHAT IS REALLY SCARY!!

....What if due to the abhorrent risks Yobob eloquently spoke about, the rates go just a little above the historical average... to say 11% ???
....I don't want to even think about that one, but I think we should keep in in the back of our minds, it could easily happen within a few years.. :blink:

#6 stevieo

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Posted 20 May 2004 - 08:05 AM

Cisco Systems Inc. said yesterday that it is investigating the possible theft of some of the core software code that runs its networking gear, which makes up much of the backbone of the Internet.

Cisco Networking Code May Have Been Stolen

Hopefully whoever stole the code will fix it so it won't be so easy to take over all those routers.

#7 DrStool

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Posted 20 May 2004 - 08:08 AM

Coming Round The Bend

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#8 twignberries

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Posted 20 May 2004 - 08:09 AM

Did anyone see Laura Bush on Leno last night? Classy lady, I must say. Deflected Jay's questions with sense of humor and stood by her man. As "nice" as she appears, I get the feeling that she has a serious fiery side when someone (ie: George) dissappoints her. No wonder he straightened up and became president.

She said she doesn't like it when her husband is characterized as something he is not. Hmmm, could she be referring to the Christian Fundamentalist/War Monger/Arm of the Lord thing? Love truly is blind.
When the last living thing has died on account of us, how poetical it would be if Earth could say, in a voice floating up perhaps from the floor of the Grand Canyon, “It is done.” People did not like it here.

- Kurt Vonnegut

#9 DrStool

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Posted 20 May 2004 - 08:14 AM

Free stock charts with all your favorite indicators! Just use the chart control form in the left menu. Or go to http://www.capitalst.../chart_page.php
To post your chart in your post, first, set chart width at 500 pixels, then when the chart comes up, right click the chart, click properties, copy the address (URL) of the chart, go to the message posting screen, click the IMG button, paste the chart image url in the box, and complete your post.

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#10 DrStool

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Posted 20 May 2004 - 08:30 AM

I want give a warm welcome and say many tanks to new Anals subscribers and Stooltraders who have joined us in the past week from:

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Posted 20 May 2004 - 08:33 AM

U.S. new jobless claims rise as 4-week average falls By Corbett B. Daly
WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- The average number of initial claims over the past four weeks fell to its lowest level since Nov. 2000 even as the number of people filing for unemployment insurance for the first time rose for the second consecutive week, the Labor Department said Thursday. First-time claims in the week ended May 15 rose by 12,000 to 345,000, while the average number of initial claims over the past four weeks fell by 2,750 to 333,500, the department said. Economists prefer the four-week average to the more volatile weekly number, which is subject to large revisions.

#12

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Posted 20 May 2004 - 08:35 AM

8:33 [HRL] Hormel to raise grocery product prices 4.5-6.5% in June

We ain't got no steenkin inflation!

#13

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Posted 20 May 2004 - 08:42 AM

Rates rise, mortgages fall (I wonder what Doc will say about this!  ):


Here's what I would say. :) (since I have been forecasting and tracking this in the Moguage report every week for the past year.)

If you want history, read the New York Times, if you want real time insights, if you want to know what's going to happen before it happens, and what's happening while it's happening, read The Anals of Stock Proctology. It's the only place this stuff comes out, when you really, really need it.


;)

One comment about the National Association of Realtors estimates that the 30-year rate would have to rise to 8 percent to seriously impede home sales.

Bullcrap.

EXACTLY!

8% my ass.

#14 Lock Limit Down

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Posted 20 May 2004 - 08:49 AM

Again the "What me worry?" boys jamming the futures are at a disconnect to what happened on the rest of the planet overnight with Asia pretty much DOWN across the board and Europe struggling with 1% losses.
They did the gold slam thingy at 8:20 as usual, like clockwork, allowing me to add. Its struggling but recovering already.
Should be another fun day
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"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their money, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them (around the banks), will deprive the people of their property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered." --- Thomas Jefferson

#15 Hiding Bear

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Posted 20 May 2004 - 08:50 AM

Rates rise, mortgages fall (I wonder what Doc will say about this!  ):


Here's what I would say. :) (since I have been forecasting and tracking this in the Moguage report every week for the past year.)

If you want history, read the New York Times, if you want real time insights, if you want to know what's going to happen before it happens, and what's happening while it's happening, read The Anals of Stock Proctology. It's the only place this stuff comes out, when you really, really need it.


;)

One comment about the National Association of Realtors estimates that the 30-year rate would have to rise to 8 percent to seriously impede home sales.

Bullcrap.

EXACTLY!

8% my ass.

"For Sale" signs are sprouting faster in my area faster than weeds after a spring rain. Realtors can spin this any way they want but it won't make any differance - the housing bubble is about to pop and a lot of people are unfortunately going to get hurt as it collapses. Two blows are coming to the economy: higher energy prices are like a tsunami that's coming after the interest rate hurricane.

Doc are u sure the NY Tiimes isn't already a subscriver? :P





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