Oyster report - Stool Pigeons Wire Message Board

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Oyster report from November 26 Rate Topic:

#1

Group: Guests

Posted 26 November 2003 - 06:51 AM

Hello folks,

This Wednesday's presentation of Oyster was packed with information yet stuffed into a rather short timeframe, so it was rather difficult for me to remember everything... Plus, they gave a virus warning (yes, on Crapvision-Europe), so I was in a hurry to go to the office and see what was all about. (It turned out not to be a virus but a Trojan; for more information see there.)

Unlike other times, this time Oyster didn't show a chart of the S&P-500 - in fact, said very little about this index. Instead, he dedicated most of his presentation to the indices of other countries.

First came a chart of the Nikkei, with an Elliott Wave count on it. He said that he things that this year the index has finished wave 3 (down) of 5 of C and is now bouncing sideways in wave 4. He expects a wide trading range in the next 3 years, which should be followed by another wave down - wave 5, which will end the bear market. Said that he expects the SPX to behave pretty much the same way - to trade in a wide range for about 3 years, visiting the October 2002 lows a couple of times but not falling much lower, and then another major move down. Emphasized, however, that if the Nikkei trades above the low of wave 1, or 12700 (12788, more exactly, V.B.), this will invalidate his count and will force him to become bullish on this index.

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#2

Group: Guests

Posted 26 November 2003 - 06:52 AM

Next came a chart of the FTSE-100, with Elliott Wave count and 200- and 40-week EMAs. The prognosis is pretty obvious from the chart - he thinks that wave B (corrective up) is over and we're starting a large wave C (down). He said that he won't turn bullish unless he sees momentum picking up and the 40-week EMA crossing above the 200-week EMA. He mentioned here that critical resistance of the SPX is the 1068-1072 area.

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#3

Group: Guests

Posted 26 November 2003 - 06:52 AM

Next came a chart of the German DAX, which looked pretty much the same - and the prognosis was similar. (I'm not sure whether I've put the first wave A in the right place.) He also had a Fibonacci retracement of the A-B wave on it, but didn't say anything particular about it. Again said that only a cross of the 40-week EMA above the 200-week EMA will turn him bullish and will force him to conclude that the bear market has ended. Said that he expects wave C to be the same length as wave A.

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#4

Group: Guests

Posted 26 November 2003 - 06:53 AM

Next came a chart of the euro/dollar. It had different moving averages on it (longer-term, I think - they were almost parallel, curved up and above the price - but he didn't say what their periods were, so I couldn't reproduce them on my chart. His Elliott Wave count is shown on the chart. He said that he thinks that wave 5 of 3 of 5 is not over yet. That it will top somewhere in the 1.21-1.25 area, that it will be followed by a consolidation and retracement (wave 4 of 5) back to somewhere around 1.12, and then one final wave 5 to new highs. In case it's not clear, he's rather bearish on Uncle Buck - and for the long, long term, too. :lol:

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#5

Group: Guests

Posted 26 November 2003 - 06:54 AM

Finally, Oyster presented a chart of gold - but he was running out of time here (as usual) and started speaking really fast, so I might have missed something. Like the euro, he's counting 5 waves up, with wave 3 still in progress but ending (in the final stages of its wave 5). He expects gold to top in the 410-450 area somewhere in December, which should be followed by a retracement (wave 4) to possibly as low as the 327.50 area, and then wave 5 should take the POG to new highs later in the year (he expects it to start somewhere in April-March).

For the record, I disagree slightly with the above prognosis. I don't think that gold will go above 425 this time, but I also don't think that the retracement will go below 350. And I see the big rally starting in the second half of 2004 - not in April. We'll see.

He also warned, however, that the whole move might be just an ABC - in which case the top is close and a big fall awaits - but he said that, in his opinion, this isn't what is happening.

That's all for now, folks, have to run and take care of the virus business...

Regards,
Vesselin

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#6 phatbubble

Assistant Professor of Stock Proctology

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Posted 26 November 2003 - 09:22 AM

many tanks VB. we just moved house, no internet or financial news channel at the new crib yet, so this sort of summary is XXXtra valuable. appreciate your diligence.

Quod Severis Metes

Your life is the sum of a remainder of an unbalanced equation inherent to the programming of the Matrix. You are the eventuality of an internal anomaly, which despite my sincerest efforts, I have been unable to eliminate from what is otherwise a harmony of mathematical precision. While it remains a burden assiduously avoided, it is not unexpected, and thus not beyond a measure of control. Which has led you, inexorably, here.
You haven't answered my question.
Quite right. Interesting. That was quicker than the others.

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#7 bigsky

Stock Proctology Intern

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Posted 26 November 2003 - 10:55 AM

Many tanks VB for the updates each week

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#8 OldMan

Stock Proctology Intern

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Posted 26 November 2003 - 12:31 PM

Vesselin,
I appreciate your summaries very much.
Many thanks!

OldMan

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#9 Oyster

Master of Stock Proctology

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Posted 26 November 2003 - 12:47 PM

My friend the synopsis is good.

I said on Gold however 410-415 not 450....so would be inline I think with your thinking. To add under 370 at this stage would say to me that wave 3 high is probably in and we correct to March......Bull market over under 327.....(wave 4 may not go under wave 1 if this is a bull market which I believe it is)....Seasnals peek earlier than last year end December and bottom in March rather than April. i read the Euro the same in the wave count.

Best regards
and Rock and Roll Chris

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#10 Goldmember

Professor of Stock Proctology

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Joined: 14-June 02

Posted 26 November 2003 - 01:42 PM

Thanx Oyster. You da man! We loves ya around these parts here at Stoolville. I agree with gold, and posted charts for goldbugs to not get too giddy when $400 is taken out.

Anthony caused pearls to be dissolved in wine to drink the health of Cleopatra; Sir Richard Whittington was as foolishly magnificent in an entertainment to King Henry V; and Sir Thomas Gresham drank a diamond, dissolved in wine, to the health of Queen Elizabeth, when she opened the Royal Exchange; but the breakfast of this roguish Dutchman was as splendid as either. He had an advantage, too, over his wasteful predecessors: their gems did not improve the taste or the wholesomeness of their wine, while his tulip was quite delicious with his red herring.here

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#11

Group: Guests

Posted 26 November 2003 - 02:01 PM

Oyster, on Nov 26 2003, 11:47 AM, said:

My friend the synopsis is good.

Thanks, Oyster - and it is nice to see you posting here again!

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I said on Gold however 410-415 not 450....

Oh, I see. Sorry 'bout that, must have misheard or misunderstood - my not being a native English speaker and all.

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Bull market over under 327.....(wave 4 may not go under wave 1 if this is a bull market which I believe it is)....

I see - so you meant a retracement to 327.50 as a worst-case scenario that still preserves the bullish count - not as the most likely scenario.

Thanks for the corrections - we all would love to see you more often here. From the feedback I'm getting from these reports, I have the impression that many Stoolies regret that they can't see your presentation. I myself started posting them because several times when I had missed one, I found myself wishing that somebody else who had seen it could post a summary.

Any chance to convince Crapvision-Europe to put at least your charts on their Web site (I assume that a full transcription of the presentation is too much work and they are unlikely to consider it worthwhile)?

Regards,
Vesselin