[DrStool]

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[DrStool]

Stooltrading > Stooltrading Stadium > Fry Day May 30, 2003


Posted by: drstool May 30 2003, 08:43 AM
Good Morning Stooltraders! Here are my intraday comments from last night's
Anals. I'll be back with more before the open. Gotta finish updating
Stoolwethers.

QUOTE
After rocketing to new highs in the first hour, the market topped
out around mid day and spent the afternoon ratcheting own to go out
on what should be a one day cycle low. The lows exceeded the
downside cmap of 949 on the SPX but came back to close there, and
just about met the 29.20 cmap on the QQQ before closing at 29.31.
The 1 day cycle was due to turn up at 3:00. It was at least a little
late, so it looks like 3-8 day cycles are turning down, as the
charts for those cycles indicate. Will it be a sideways down phase,
which would portend further gains after a few days of consolidation,
or will it be a hard down phase, ending the wild bull run we have
been witnesses to, if not participants in?

Tomorrow should give us the answer. Upside cmaps for all short
cycles have been hit. How high the AM up phase gets should be the
tell. A five hour cycle high is due between now and tomorrow in the
first half hour. A 1 day cycle high is due around 11 AM. If the
market is weak in the first 1-1/2 hours, it's a good bet that the
rally is over.



Posted by: blackbelt May 30 2003, 09:14 AM
Good morning,

Cycle low today, so I expect a trade below yesterday's low at some point.
Let's don't forget the potential "Three drives to a low" pattern on the
15m chart. Other than that nothing else for today. I'll take it easy..

The intermediate top has to be in or it's coming next week. I spend a
considerable amount of time yesterday night reviewing my cyclical analysis
to see what the heck is going on. In order to understand what I mean
exactly, I'll tell you that at any given point, the market operates within
two pivots. A high and a low. For example...

Since October 10th 2002, the market was operating between that low and the
January 13th high. After it traded above the 1/13/03 high, the two key
pivots became the 10/10/02 low and the 12/2/02 high. When it traded above
the 12/2/02 high the pivots became the 10/10/02 low and the 8/22/02 high
and so on....

The high and low pivots apply time and price support and resistance levels
to the market.

All in all...

With everything I see so far. The intermediate cycle that picked the
12/2/02 high and the 3/12/03 low (with 2 days variance) was pointing to a
5/12 high. Although we find oursevles two weeks later trading higher, if
we look at the SPX on the which the cycle is based on, the index didn't
manage to close above the 5/12 close by more than 8 points. So in theory
that cycle is still in effect, although it feels worse than it actually is

Another cycle, of longer duration that the previous one, is pointing to a
6/3 high followed by a 7/22 low. This cycle is more bullish than the first
one. But it still points to a top now...

Now...what do I try to say.....As I said before the top is either in, or
it's coming early next week. What we need to avoid is getting trapped into
the "just a little bit more" game. In other words. If it doesn't stop at
950, it will be 965. If it's not 965 it will be 975. If not 975 it will be
1000. That's a trap that the mind plays to justify holdind losing
positions and on top of that, it prevents us from taking advantage of the
upswing.

So the plan goes like this. If the price doesn't top, the latest, by next
week, I personally won't look at the longer term cycles at all for now,
and I'll focus just on the price patterns, and the turn dates. Hopefully,
this way, I'll take better advantage of all the trading opportunities that
show up

Have a good trading day

Posted by: the end May 30 2003, 09:14 AM
I am looking for a 50%-62% retrace of the 5 waves down. 955-957.

Posted by: blackbelt May 30 2003, 09:22 AM
Stocks for today

Time pivots: CAH, AMGN, KSS

Potential short candidates as long as they hold below yesterday's high:
AMGN, MXIM, SYMC, MEDI

Potential long candidates: IDPH, CEPH, BGEN, DNA ( all of these at
slightly lower levels than they currently are)

Posted by: drstool May 30 2003, 09:22 AM
From the AM Anals-

This morning we have the futures higher. What else is new. We should look
for the 5 hr cycle high within the first few minutes, and failing that, a
one day cycle high around 10:45-11:15. Upside cmap on the basis of
overnight fucutures is, well I don't know what the hell it is from this
chart. But it could be 955. The 3 day cycle downside cmap was 947. That
was hit yesterday as was the 5 day cycle upside cmap of 959.

The SPY's opened on a gap up in the pre-market and are trading at 95.86,
which should be worth around 955.50 on the cash. the upside cmap looks
like around 96.05, worth about 957.50 cash. QQQ is at 29.53 with a target
of around 29.60. We'll look for those numbers this morning and see how the
market behaves in getting there. The PM should be weak.


Posted by: Pico May 30 2003, 09:24 AM
QUOTE (blackbelt @ May 30 2003, 08:14 AM)
Now...what do I try to say.....As I said before the top is either
in, or it's coming early next week. What we need to avoid is getting
trapped into the "just a little bit more" game. In other words. If
it doesn't stop at 950, it will be 965. If it's not 965 it will be
975. If not 975 it will be 1000. That's a trap that the mind plays
to justify holdind losing positions and on top of that, it prevents
us from taking advantage of the upswing.

Very good point BB

Posted by: GregFokker May 30 2003, 09:26 AM
Fokker needs a vacation in a big way. Ms. Market needs to take a breather.

Yields cranking up as bonds sell off. Data due at 10AM.

Posted by: crooked_analyst May 30 2003, 09:28 AM
More smashing of Gold....and a dollar jam - gonna be an ugly start

Posted by: blackbelt May 30 2003, 09:28 AM
Here is the potential "Three drives to a low" pattern

You can see the two "drives" or "spikes" and the divergence on the
oscillator. The expectation is a pullback towards the 20 EMA (that's the
reason of the gap up today) and if the market decides to complete the
pattern, it will push one more time lower, and the swing will be complete.
After three or fours "pushes" lower or higher expect a short term
reversal.... That will prevent you from entering at the end of the short
term move



Posted by: Wrecked Them May 30 2003, 09:31 AM
BB, I hear you loud and clear.

That mental gamesplaying - moving the line in the sand - is very
dangerous.

With regard to your previous 5/12 cycle high, I did notice that indicators
like RSI, ADX, etc are lower now than at the previous high. Until more
time passes and we can benefit from hindsight, we won't know for sure.
However, this negative divergence is important, at least for now.

By the way, I noticed your prognostications are taking on a life of their
own over on IDS:

QUOTE (wndysrf @ May 30 2003, 08:49 AM)
For Blackbelt's count to work out, we must go down IMMEDIATELY after
the open.


MWH

Posted by: blackbelt May 30 2003, 09:34 AM
Follow through on the potential "Three drives to a low" discussion.

Since the index traded above the prior pivot high (the high of the
pullback after the first low), the potential from the pattern development
are decreasing....

Posted by: drstool May 30 2003, 09:34 AM
I have always told people not to paraphrase or interpret what I write.
They always put their own spin on it. It's human nature. Perception of the
message by the receiver always differs to some degree from the sender's
intent. Always a problem in communication.

But it's infuriating to the author. I know.

Posted by: blackbelt May 30 2003, 09:36 AM
QUOTE (Wrecked Them @ May 30 2003, 08:31 AM)
QUOTE (wndysrf @ May 30 2003, 08:49 AM)
For Blackbelt's count to work out, we must go down IMMEDIATELY
after the open.




I wish I knew which count that refers too...

Time pivots are "windows"

Posted by: GregFokker May 30 2003, 09:38 AM
QUOTE (blackbelt @ May 30 2003, 09:36 AM)
QUOTE (Wrecked Them @ May 30 2003, 08:31 AM)
QUOTE (wndysrf @ May 30 2003, 08:49 AM)
For Blackbelt's count to work out, we must go down
IMMEDIATELY after the open.




I wish I knew which count that refers too...

Time pivots are "windows"

Lately, Soup and I have been trying to stay away from those

Posted by: Wrecked Them May 30 2003, 09:38 AM
QUOTE (blackbelt @ May 30 2003, 09:36 AM)
I wish I knew which count that refers too...



Posted by: drstool May 30 2003, 09:40 AM
Q's hit the cmap

Posted by: blackbelt May 30 2003, 09:40 AM
QUOTE (GregFokker @ May 30 2003, 08:38 AM)
QUOTE (blackbelt @ May 30 2003, 09:36 AM)
QUOTE (Wrecked Them @ May 30 2003, 08:31 AM)
QUOTE (wndysrf @ May 30 2003, 08:49 AM)
For Blackbelt's count to work out, we must go down
IMMEDIATELY after the open.




I wish I knew which count that refers too...

Time pivots are "windows"

Lately, Soup and I have been trying to stay away from those



Posted by: blackbelt May 30 2003, 09:42 AM
I don't usually discuss my actual trades for many reasons...but

As an example.... I decided to take a short on AMGN at current levels,
stop yesterday's high, looking for 1 to 1.5 points

Posted by: drstool May 30 2003, 09:46 AM
Now we start chasing with the cmaps.

Posted by: GregFokker May 30 2003, 09:47 AM
Thanks to the magic of option premiums, I can walk away from my INTC puts
leaving only the commissions on the table. It met with a wall of sellers
at 21.00. I'm going to take a loss and bail if it breaks 21.

Posted by: drstool May 30 2003, 09:48 AM
I'm gonna guess 959.50 and 29.73.

Posted by: GregFokker May 30 2003, 09:49 AM
QUOTE (GregFokker @ May 30 2003, 09:47 AM)
Thanks to the magic of option premiums, I can walk away from my INTC
puts leaving only the commissions on the table. It met with a wall
of sellers at 21.00. I'm going to take a loss and bail if it breaks
21.

I sure hope it doesn't. I smell good money on this play.

Posted by: Mousey Dung May 30 2003, 09:50 AM
I received my first margin call since the summer of 2000. Bummer. I sure
underestimated this one. Such is life. I hear what you all are saying
about moving the line in the sand. It been very hard to reconcile the TA
for the last month with the actual action, nonetheless, I will cover only
what I have to as I agree that we are near or in the top and the turn
could be harsh and fast.

Posted by: drstool May 30 2003, 09:51 AM
It's tricky here because the 3 day cycle is up, but the 5 and 8 still
appear to be topping.

Posted by: drstool May 30 2003, 09:52 AM
Now the qqq upside cmap has pulled back down to 29.65. So that may have
been just another little distribution blowoff. I think the time frame is
the key. Up phase should be out of gas soon.

Posted by: drstool May 30 2003, 09:54 AM
1 day cycle ozzies on qqq close to rollover

Posted by: drstool May 30 2003, 09:56 AM
I am continuing to update the charts on my chart page as frequently as I
can. Usually 5-10 minutes on the spx8 and qqq8 and about 30-45 minutes on
the spx40 and qqq30. Please visit and refresh the page often to see the
latest.

Posted by: blackbelt May 30 2003, 09:57 AM
Followthrough on AMGN trade...

Why did I pick AMGN? Because of yesterday's reversal bar. New high above
the previous swing high from 4/24/03 and a close below the previous two
days closes. I like the probabilities of the trade, I know where my stop
is and if I had to guess I will say that it should target the 20 day EMA
at 62...That's the reason for my target. That's 1.7 points away, so I'm
looking for 1 to 1.5 (we have to leave some money of the table for the
next guy).

I might have gotten in sligthly early, there are potential that the stock
could trade up to 64.3-64.5 before it reverses to the downside. So I might
have to take some squeeze here

That's the plan...either it will trigger the stop and I'll move on or it
will give me the money...

Plan your trades, trade your plan..

Posted by: drstool May 30 2003, 09:57 AM
I'm dropping the SPX cmap to 958.50.

Posted by: drstool May 30 2003, 10:01 AM
So much for that.

Posted by: GregFokker May 30 2003, 10:02 AM
Chi PMI 52.2, allegedly bullish reading.

Posted by: drstool May 30 2003, 10:02 AM
eSignal stalls again.

This should probably be used as some kind of signal. Did it yesterday as
the market approached a top.

Posted by: the end May 30 2003, 10:02 AM
shit!

Posted by: drstool May 30 2003, 10:04 AM
cmap looks like 960.50.

Posted by: the end May 30 2003, 10:04 AM
Next stop 965?

Posted by: drstool May 30 2003, 10:05 AM
Still within the framework of expectations unless it breaks out.

Posted by: PyurAureo May 30 2003, 10:07 AM
QUOTE (the end @ May 30 2003, 09:04 AM)
Next stop 965?

Wish it would stop there or before and get turned back hard. I can't help
but think that the gamers will take out that number today or soon.


Posted by: blackbelt May 30 2003, 10:07 AM
For the "long" list,

CEPH

It approaches 44 were I would expect it to hold and reverses to the upside
again. Also third day in a pullback. On strong uptrends, stocks do not
drop for more than three days

Posted by: GregFokker May 30 2003, 10:07 AM
PCR .43.

Put to call ratio .43.


Bulls have finally gone batshit.

Posted by: DoubleFlush May 30 2003, 10:07 AM
CBOE PCR 9:00 AM CST

Equity 0.34
Index 1.14

Overall 0.43


Posted by: drstool May 30 2003, 10:07 AM
News can only bend or stretch cycle waves. It can't break them. This
should peter out.

Posted by: drstool May 30 2003, 10:11 AM
Well...

new cmap 964.25.

Posted by: RockLedge May 30 2003, 10:11 AM
For the volatility being so low.... it sure is volatile.

TGIF......



Posted by: the end May 30 2003, 10:11 AM
I say 965 but if we don't break yesterdays high, It can still be a wave
two.

Posted by: blackbelt May 30 2003, 10:12 AM
A high above yesterday's high negate the cycle that points to a 5/30 low
and that opens a can of worms... I want to see it to believe it

Posted by: Wrecked Them May 30 2003, 10:12 AM
For the first time in as far back as I can remember, the adx is not
confirming much confidence in this upmove:

Posted by: drstool May 30 2003, 10:12 AM
targets are 27.75 QQQ and 963.50-964.50 SPX.

Posted by: tarrbabycn May 30 2003, 10:13 AM
QUOTE (drstool @ May 30 2003, 07:43 AM)


Tomorrow should give us the answer. Upside cmaps for all short
cycles have been hit. How high the AM up phase gets should be the
tell. A five hour cycle high is due between now and tomorrow in the
first half hour. A 1 day cycle high is due around 11 AM. If the
market is weak in the first 1-1/2 hours, it's a good bet that the
rally is over.[/QUOTE]

Doc:

Since the market is strong thus far, does that suggest to you that the
rally continues? Or do we need more time?

Posted by: Wrecked Them May 30 2003, 10:15 AM
It's the same on the 15 min chart:

Posted by: blackbelt May 30 2003, 10:18 AM
Keep in mind,

The important thing is the level not the exact number.... 964 +/- 3. Also
that the date for the cycle top using the Square of nine, is a time window
from now till next week.

The cycle bottom for today is short term stuff...

Posted by: marketneutral May 30 2003, 10:19 AM
QUOTE (blackbelt @ May 30 2003, 08:14 AM)
Another cycle, of longer duration that the previous one, is pointing
to a 6/3 high followed by a 7/22 low. This cycle is more bullish
than the first one. But it still points to a top now...

Interesting BB. If we top on 6/3 and subtract the number of days from the
Aug hi to Oct lo, we get 7/22. Out of curiousity, do you use a different
method to arrive at the same date? As I posted last night in Talking
Stool, it's possible that everything since 2/3 is a reverse mirror of the
action from the Oct lows to 2/3. Will this reverse mirroring continue once
(and if we top) (i.e. will the next wave mimic the selloff from 8/22 to
10/10 in reverse)?

Posted by: blackbelt May 30 2003, 10:20 AM
Here it comes....

Posted by: Pico May 30 2003, 10:21 AM
I think there is a bearish butterfly in the SPX 10m
left wing top 959 yesterday
let's see if the right wing top is in...

Posted by: drstool May 30 2003, 10:23 AM
If it doesn't break out by 11:15, it's still within the frame of
expectations.

Posted by: blackbelt May 30 2003, 10:24 AM
QUOTE (marketneutral @ May 30 2003, 09:19 AM)
QUOTE (blackbelt @ May 30 2003, 08:14 AM)
Another cycle, of longer duration that the previous one, is
pointing to a 6/3 high followed by a 7/22 low. This cycle is
more bullish than the first one. But it still points to a top
now...

Interesting BB. If we top on 6/3 and subtract the number of days
from the Aug hi to Oct lo, we get 7/22. Out of curiousity, do you
use a different method to arrive at the same date? As I posted last
night in Talking Stool, it's possible that everything since 2/3 is a
reverse mirror of the action from the Oct lows to 2/3. Will this
reverse mirroring continue once (and if we top) (i.e. will the next
wave mimic the selloff from 8/22 to 10/10 in reverse)?

No different method...

These cycles are based purely on Gann analysis. I try to find out which
year from the past repeats. The cycle that I mentioned before with the top
on 6/3 and the bottom 7/22 is 1963, a pre-election year, 40 years ago
(20*2). 20 year cycle is the most important cycle of all... Although Gann
didn't say it 100 back then because people could thought he was crazy, 20
years is the synodic Saturn/Jupiter cycle.

If that cycle repeats, then we should expect a 50% retracement of the
rally since March 12th, which brings us to 875. But the dates/time is more
important than the "length" of the move


Posted by: drstool May 30 2003, 10:24 AM
This is a bulloney bullhorn pattern over the lat two days. . Almost always
indicates a top

Posted by: Wrecked Them May 30 2003, 10:27 AM
QUOTE (drstool @ May 30 2003, 10:24 AM)
This is a bulloney bullhorn pattern over the lat two days. . Almost
always indicates a top

Classic expanding triangle topping pattern ... interestingly, it points to
a top around 964.

WH says be careful as it could be a 4th wave. I told him to check the adx
carefully.

MWH

Posted by: marketneutral May 30 2003, 10:33 AM
Thanx for the response BB. Nice work.

Posted by: the end May 30 2003, 10:34 AM
Ok, Now it's a B wave. Damn it.!

Posted by: blackbelt May 30 2003, 10:35 AM
Re: Cycles,

I can bet the farm that most if not all people get confused with me
talking about cycles and being all over the place. cycle low now, cycle
high now.... I realize that and I do my best to explain, but it takes a
tremendous amount of reading of the Gann methodology to understand where I
come from. Even I get confused at times

Belive me I do my best to pass to you what I see, right or wrong.
Hopefully along the process I'll be able to pass some of the stuff I
learned while reading and studing all these material.

Keep in mind, that you must use whatever I type here as a suppliment to
your own analysis. If you don't know how to use what I type here, don't
use them at all

Posted by: blackbelt May 30 2003, 10:37 AM
Re: QCOM

Followthrough to the upside from yesterday's breakout above the range

Posted by: GregFokker May 30 2003, 10:38 AM
TICK.NQ +720! Wow!

Posted by: blackbelt May 30 2003, 10:41 AM
Follow up on the AMGN trade.

As I thought, I had to go through the squeeze towards the 64.3-64.5
area....Now it's the moment of truth...these levels needs to hold for my
trade to have a chance to close profitably... Now I sit and wait..

Posted by: the end May 30 2003, 10:42 AM
Yesterdays impulsive must have been a C wave in wave 4. We are now in wave
5 up.

Posted by: drstool May 30 2003, 10:43 AM
Brown pants time.

Posted by: DoubleFlush May 30 2003, 10:43 AM
..

Posted by: drstool May 30 2003, 10:45 AM
These vertical moves day after day are symptoms of waves of derivatives
meltups.

The cmap on qqq is up to 29.85. SPX cmap still at 964. T-minus 15 minutes
to expected 1 day cycle high.

Posted by: zman May 30 2003, 10:46 AM
next resistance is @ 968.92 if we push thru that I give up

Posted by: blackbelt May 30 2003, 10:48 AM
Breath in, breath out....

Patience...

Posted by: GregFokker May 30 2003, 10:50 AM
QUOTE (blackbelt @ May 30 2003, 10:48 AM)
Breath in, breath out....

Patience...

Thanks, BB- needed that.

Posted by: drstool May 30 2003, 10:50 AM
rechecked the 8 day cycle cmap for spx.

963

Posted by: PyurAureo May 30 2003, 10:53 AM
QUOTE (GregFokker @ May 30 2003, 09:50 AM)
QUOTE (blackbelt @ May 30 2003, 10:48 AM)
Breath in, breath out....

Patience...

Thanks, BB- needed that.

Ditto


Posted by: drstool May 30 2003, 10:54 AM
My perception of where we are on the 60 min bar chart.


Posted by: the end May 30 2003, 10:55 AM
The expanding triangle that Doc mentioned.

Posted by: Wrecked Them May 30 2003, 10:55 AM
Interesting adx similarities today to yesterday's movement on the 5min:

Posted by: blackbelt May 30 2003, 10:56 AM
Everytime I was down on my swing positions I used to double-up and every
single time I will lose at the end. So the rule is.

NEVER ADD TO A LOSING POSITION

Good trades become profitable immediately. If a position takes you under
and you freeze and you don't close it, the worse thing you can do is add
to it.

Keep in mind, that the market will be here tomorrow, next year and 100
years from now. Take care of the losing position and then start fresh
again having in mind that (as someone said at a seminar I attended awhile
ago) "Your first loss, is your best loss"

This is not a race, it's a journey

Posted by: Pico May 30 2003, 11:07 AM
QUOTE (blackbelt @ May 30 2003, 09:56 AM)
Everytime I was down on my swing positions I used to double-up and
every single time I will lose at the end. So the rule is.

NEVER ADD TO A LOSING POSITION

Good trades become profitable immediately. If a position takes you
under and you freeze and you don't close it, the worse thing you can
do is add to it.

Keep in mind, that the market will be here tomorrow, next year and
100 years from now. Take care of the losing position and then start
fresh again having in mind that (as someone said at a seminar I
attended awhile ago) "Your first loss, is your best loss"

This is not a race, it's a journey

Absolutely right. Averaging down into losing positions may work only if
there are no reversals but only corrections. That's why it's easy to trade
in secular bull markets.

Posted by: drstool May 30 2003, 11:09 AM
qqq is right on the edge of 1 day cycle sell signal.

Posted by: DoubleFlush May 30 2003, 11:11 AM
..

Posted by: drstool May 30 2003, 11:11 AM
There it is.

Posted by: drstool May 30 2003, 11:15 AM
Now we look for a possible revisit to the high until 12:00, or conversely
a 3 hr wavelet low at 12:00. Then a 5 hr low at 12:00.

Posted by: PyurAureo May 30 2003, 11:20 AM
QUOTE (drstool @ May 30 2003, 10:15 AM)
Now we look for a possible revisit to the high until 12:00, or
conversely a 3 hr wavelet low at 12:00. Then a 5 hr low at 12:00.

Huh?


Posted by: blackbelt May 30 2003, 11:21 AM
Yesterday I re-read the article that Pico posted over at Talking
Stool....What an excellent post!!

I took the liberty to compare the times for the two time periods Pico
mentioned in the first part of the post. There are some interesting time
relationships there pointing to either today or Monday (since 6/2 is
weekend)

Pico I hope you don't mind..



Posted by: drstool May 30 2003, 11:35 AM
oops. should say 5 hr low at 2:00. typo.

Posted by: wndysrf May 30 2003, 11:35 AM
Blackbelt....

Thanks for the heads up on QCOM.

Making some good coin on it today.....

Posted by: DoubleFlush May 30 2003, 11:36 AM
..

Posted by: blackbelt May 30 2003, 11:37 AM
For the Nasdaq Composite:

[1521.44 (12/2/02 HIGH) - 1253.22 (3/12/03 LOW) ] * 1.272 (external
retracement)----->1594.4


That must make the index, AT LEAST, react to the downside

Posted by: blackbelt May 30 2003, 11:38 AM
QUOTE (wndysrf @ May 30 2003, 10:35 AM)
Blackbelt....

Thanks for the heads up on QCOM.

Making some good coin on it today.....


Glad to hear the post was helpful.

Posted by: Injured Grizzly May 30 2003, 11:38 AM
QUOTE (blackbelt @ May 30 2003, 09:48 AM)
Breath in, breath out....

Patience...

Does hyper-ventilating count...

Posted by: Pico May 30 2003, 11:40 AM
QUOTE (blackbelt @ May 30 2003, 10:21 AM)
Yesterday I re-read the article that Pico posted over at Talking
Stool....What an excellent post!!

I took the liberty to compare the times for the two time periods
Pico mentioned in the first part of the post. There are some
interesting time relationships there pointing to either today or
Monday (since 6/2 is weekend)

Pico I hope you don't mind..



BB,

I don't mind at all! I would not post anything if I didn't want people to
make some use of it, at their own risk of course

Posted by: blackbelt May 30 2003, 11:41 AM
QUOTE (Injured Grizzly @ May 30 2003, 10:38 AM)
QUOTE (blackbelt @ May 30 2003, 09:48 AM)
Breath in, breath out....

Patience...

Does hyper-ventilating count...

Actually it doesn't



Posted by: Injured Grizzly May 30 2003, 11:45 AM
QUOTE (blackbelt @ May 30 2003, 10:41 AM)
QUOTE (Injured Grizzly @ May 30 2003, 10:38 AM)
QUOTE (blackbelt @ May 30 2003, 09:48 AM)
Breath in, breath out....

Patience...

Does hyper-ventilating count...

Actually it doesn't

Darn..

Posted by: Wrecked Them May 30 2003, 11:46 AM
It's adx-spaghetti for lunch, just like yesterday:

Posted by: GregFokker May 30 2003, 11:49 AM
Good eye, MWH!

Posted by: blackbelt May 30 2003, 11:49 AM
QUOTE (Injured Grizzly @ May 30 2003, 10:45 AM)
QUOTE (blackbelt @ May 30 2003, 10:41 AM)
QUOTE (Injured Grizzly @ May 30 2003, 10:38 AM)
QUOTE (blackbelt @ May 30 2003, 09:48 AM)
Breath in, breath out....

Patience...

Does hyper-ventilating count...

Actually it doesn't

Darn..

On a serious note, over-oxygenation can create panic attacks, I read that
on the Internet somewhere.... It happened to me last year.

Posted by: blackbelt May 30 2003, 11:53 AM
QQQ - 60m

Will it or will it not reverse?



Posted by: blackbelt May 30 2003, 11:55 AM
Another stock ready for launch (still in the prelimiary, basing phase) is
CCMP

This is a very volatile stock when it gets going. The volume started
picking up on the "up" days, so I'll keep in the watch list. Still within
the consolidation zone

Posted by: Wrecked Them May 30 2003, 11:59 AM
As DF pointed out earlier, today's equity put-call ratio is currently at
0.38.

That brings the averages down to the area where they bottomed in mid-May:

Posted by: zman May 30 2003, 12:04 PM
Is this the turn? let's hope so

Posted by: DoubleFlush May 30 2003, 12:06 PM
..

Posted by: drstool May 30 2003, 12:15 PM
If this down phase goes sideways until the projected 5 hour cycle low, I
suppose that would mean another shot up.

Posted by: Quicktrade May 30 2003, 12:18 PM
QUOTE (drstool @ May 30 2003, 11:15 AM)
If this down phase goes sideways until the projected 5 hour cycle
low, I suppose that would mean another shot up.

According to your time cycles, are we in the down phase now? And when do
you show us bottoming?

Posted by: zman May 30 2003, 12:35 PM
This is the second time where we thought this was the time the sellers
were coming, but it's not going to happen probably not till Monday is my
guess..still thinking 965...I am thinking a weekly close of 949.50 is
bullish..JMHO

Posted by: drstool May 30 2003, 12:37 PM
Yes, I posted those already. 2:00 for the 5 hour cycle.

Posted by: drstool May 30 2003, 12:39 PM
Yesterday's top phase lasted 100 minutes. Today's has gone beyond that
without a break to the downside. It's starting to smell like trending, and
not the good kind if you are a bear.

Posted by: Quicktrade May 30 2003, 12:43 PM
QUOTE (drstool @ May 30 2003, 11:37 AM)
Yes, I posted those already. 2:00 for the 5 hour cycle.

Thanks, sorry I wasn't paying attention earlier. Was busy selling calls
and buying puts. May have to bail on those puts if we don't see some sort
of a pullback soon. Have to see what happens if and when we hit 1600
Nasdaq. Not sure if they sell it or buy it. Narrowing bb's has me
bothered.

Quicktrade.

Posted by: drstool May 30 2003, 12:43 PM
If the 1 day cycle is dominant, like yesterday, then the low will come
late, around 3:30. But the longer it goes sideways, the more likely
there's gonna be a late break to the upside. The problem is that cmaps
have been met for most cycles up to 8 days.

Posted by: Major Top May 30 2003, 12:43 PM
Worms

Posted by: drstool May 30 2003, 12:44 PM
There's a little wiggle room in the 1 day cmap on the SPX. It may be
946.25.

Posted by: DoubleFlush May 30 2003, 12:44 PM
..

Posted by: drstool May 30 2003, 12:49 PM
Seeing faint hints of give up on very short ozzies.

Posted by: drstool May 30 2003, 12:50 PM
Look at my qqq chart. Need to see that shelf broken on the 26/18 sto. That
would confirm a down in the 1 day cycle

Posted by: joe sixpack bundy May 30 2003, 12:52 PM
.....doc, looks like the 1-day is ruling.....doesn't it......the pattern
is the same like yesterday.....need to break 960.....and we could hit
another "airpocket".....

Posted by: drstool May 30 2003, 12:53 PM
ditto onthe spx chart. the RoC is on the verge of a breakdown.

Posted by: drstool May 30 2003, 12:54 PM
This is the time to go for it if they're gonna turn down.

Posted by: drstool May 30 2003, 12:54 PM
sell signal on the qqq. no whips and chains please.

Posted by: drstool May 30 2003, 12:58 PM
ozzies starting to go south on spx chart. I don't want to see prices go
sideways as these oscillators correct.

Posted by: drstool May 30 2003, 01:08 PM
1:00 The market did as expected from a time standpoint, but was stronger
than expected price wise, this morning. As I write the one day cycle
appears to be turning down, but it's too early to tell if the down phase
will actually be down, or a swdp, a flat move while the ozzies correct.

This morning the SPX and QQQ retest upside cmaps for the 8 day cycle. This
should be the cycle high, but it depends on a down afternoon. the 5 hour
cycle low is due around 2:00 and the 1 day low around 3:30. If the down
phase is flat, there should be a push to higher highs in the late going.


Posted by: drstool May 30 2003, 01:10 PM
Just as I feared. those signals whipsawed. The top shelves are still more
or less intact. Time is running out for a down move. have an hour I think.


Posted by: blackbelt May 30 2003, 01:10 PM
I have all kind of problems with my DSL today. It dropped three times so
far and now I have access but not HTTP, which means I can't read the
thread. I used a dial-up to post this.

I don't think I will be able to post for the rest of the day.



Posted by: drstool May 30 2003, 01:16 PM
Suddenly I don't have ftp access. Can't load my charts. hmmm.

Posted by: armadillobear May 30 2003, 01:20 PM
If it's any consolation, my DSL line has gone down twice this a.m. and
Schwab lost server for 20 minutes shortly after open.....

Posted by: drstool May 30 2003, 01:30 PM
OKK charts are loaded. the ozzies are breaking down. So far, price isn't.
Time is growing short.

Posted by: drstool May 30 2003, 01:32 PM
At the very end of any cycle there's typically at least a little price
break, just like yesterday late. That's the cycle low shakeout. It looks
like a breakdown, but it's just a small whopsaw.

Posted by: Wrecked Them May 30 2003, 01:36 PM
For 5 minutes, I'll fantasize that this isn't an underthrow, but the start
of something good...

Posted by: drstool May 30 2003, 01:38 PM
It's tough being a bear in any environment. But in this...phew.

Posted by: Mousey Dung May 30 2003, 01:39 PM
Funny, just came back on. We were having network problems here at the Rock
Quarry.

Posted by: Major Top May 30 2003, 01:40 PM
QUOTE (Wrecked Them @ May 30 2003, 12:36 PM)
For 5 minutes, I'll fantasize that this isn't an underthrow, but the
start of something good...

fantasize

thats new

Posted by: Injured Grizzly May 30 2003, 01:40 PM
QUOTE (Wrecked Them @ May 30 2003, 12:36 PM)
For 5 minutes, I'll fantasize that this isn't an underthrow, but the
start of something good...

5 minutes of that fantasy costs how much?

It might be worth it and if it is I'll take one.

Posted by: drstool May 30 2003, 01:41 PM
I drew the qqq chart so that you can see this key juncture at 2:00. They
gotta get below 29.56 if this thig is to go lower today.

Posted by: Injured Grizzly May 30 2003, 01:41 PM
QUOTE (drstool @ May 30 2003, 12:38 PM)
It's tough being a bear in any environment. But in this...phew.

Its a bear being a bear..Doc

Posted by: Mousey Dung May 30 2003, 01:43 PM
This week certainly has answered a burning question for me at least. . . .
Does a Bear shit in his pants?

Now I'm off to research the question, "Do fish swim?"

Posted by: drstool May 30 2003, 01:44 PM
Isn't it amzing how the SPX can take off like a rocket, then they can keep
it in a one point range all day. How do they do that?

Posted by: Wrecked Them May 30 2003, 01:44 PM
QUOTE (Injured Grizzly @ May 30 2003, 01:40 PM)
QUOTE (Wrecked Them @ May 30 2003, 12:36 PM)
For 5 minutes, I'll fantasize that this isn't an underthrow,
but the start of something good...

5 minutes of that fantasy costs how much?

It might be worth it and if it is I'll take one.

Lol

So far, it's still a good fantasy:

Posted by: drstool May 30 2003, 01:45 PM
Ahhhhh. That felt good.

Posted by: GregFokker May 30 2003, 01:45 PM
"It's the high cost of low livin'"... new Allman's tune.

INTC is sitting at the support line of a descending triangle on intraday.
Need it to break now.

Posted by: drstool May 30 2003, 01:48 PM
Generally, the new server has performed admirably, don't you think?

Posted by: drstool May 30 2003, 01:49 PM
The SPX drops one point and you'd think it was Mardi Gras around here.

Posted by: drstool May 30 2003, 01:49 PM


Posted by: Mousey Dung May 30 2003, 01:50 PM
QUOTE (GregFokker @ May 30 2003, 01:45 PM)
"It's the high cost of low livin'"... new Allman's tune.



That is the definition of the New York City economy.

Posted by: Wrecked Them May 30 2003, 01:52 PM
I was just reading an article in the Dutch press, that US directors have
recently been buying. Apparently ML did a survey, the results of which are
available to ML customers. Through my HSBC account I have access to ML
research, but I can't find the survey and I'm curious as to what they said
exactly because I was under the impression insiders have been selling in
record numbers. Here is the chart:

Source: http://iex.nl/column...asp?colid=12698



Posted by: GregFokker May 30 2003, 01:52 PM
Awesome tune...

INTC seems to be doing it. Now for some acceleration.

Posted by: Mousey Dung May 30 2003, 01:52 PM
Yes, Doc. The server has been great outside of . . . . The Incident.

Posted by: Wrecked Them May 30 2003, 01:53 PM
QUOTE (drstool @ May 30 2003, 01:49 PM)
The SPX drops one point and you'd think it was Mardi Gras around
here.

Doc, big rivers start as small streams.

Posted by: drstool May 30 2003, 01:53 PM
On the brink.



Posted by: Mousey Dung May 30 2003, 01:56 PM
It looks like Morgan Stanley may have saved me from having to cover a bit
to meet a margin call with their downgrade of XLNX this morning. Of
course, the day is not over just yet.

Posted by: drstool May 30 2003, 01:59 PM
Goooood afternoon ladies and geentlemen, it's time for your 5 hr cycle
low!

Posted by: drstool May 30 2003, 02:01 PM
Can the bulls stage another victory march from the 5 hour low, or like
yesterday will they be forced to regroup and pullback into the 1 day low
at 3:30?

Posted by: drstool May 30 2003, 02:03 PM
We need a freakin miracle.

Posted by: Mousey Dung May 30 2003, 02:06 PM
What we need is one Major to say "Well, I'm taking mine off the table
now." Then the dominoes will start to fall.

Posted by: Wrecked Them May 30 2003, 02:08 PM
Like a well-timed allegation of financial impropriety.

Isn't that what got the ball rolling yesterday?

Posted by: the end May 30 2003, 02:09 PM
Wrecked,

That chart looks like it was from March. I understand they picked up
selling in April in a big way.

Posted by: Wrecked Them May 30 2003, 02:12 PM
TE, that's what it would appear to be, judging from where the S&P is on
the chart. I was a little surprised by the article because that website
tends to be rather bearish on the whole.

MWH

Posted by: Mousey Dung May 30 2003, 02:13 PM
Some major mental institution like Fido or Moyl sells a huge basket of
techs.

Posted by: drstool May 30 2003, 02:14 PM
Now that's a damn bullish looking chart. Unless of course it fails. Then
it would be an incredibly bearish looking chart.



Posted by: Mousey Dung May 30 2003, 02:14 PM
Now I'm "fantasizing."

Posted by: drstool May 30 2003, 02:16 PM
We're in between a 5 rh low and a 1 day low. There's still some hope for
this to head down. the ozzies have not confirmed that the low is in. A
slim thread indeed

Posted by: joe sixpack bundy May 30 2003, 02:23 PM
.....found an old cd..."all i need is a miracle" - mike and the
mecanics.....maybe it helps....

Posted by: drstool May 30 2003, 02:27 PM
The ozzies are cofirming the turn. Now the question is, how high?

Posted by: bigwave May 30 2003, 02:27 PM
The waiting is the hardest part..Tom Petty

Day 2

Posted by: drstool May 30 2003, 02:30 PM
The first interim cmap is 965.

If 5 hr cycle is governing, cycle high is due in the last hour today.

Posted by: AnotherOne May 30 2003, 02:31 PM
Month End = Mo' Money

Good thing the 31st is on a Saturday.

Posted by: drstool May 30 2003, 02:31 PM
Interim cmap for the high on the qqq is 29.86

Posted by: drstool May 30 2003, 02:38 PM
ok they hit em and pulled back. How'm I doin?

Posted by: zman May 30 2003, 02:39 PM
Doc, better than I am at this point

Posted by: Dr. Charmin May 30 2003, 02:39 PM
". . . and he whisperd about, that it's time to get out, when the widows
and orphans get in." Ogden Nash

Posted by: drstool May 30 2003, 02:40 PM
I bet ya a few shorts got shook out on that little move.

Posted by: depends May 30 2003, 02:40 PM
Right arm Doc. also b4 said 965.4. I'm thinking the
turkey is done.

Posted by: Pico May 30 2003, 02:41 PM
965 is a very well advertised stop. Expect several attempts to trigger
such stops in the future.

Posted by: ROG May 30 2003, 02:42 PM
965 on the cash spoos and they pull back? I thought that was suppose to
kick-off the mother of all short squeezes. How many times have we seen the
market move straight up to one of these inflection points, peek over the
magic line and find nothing there?

Posted by: drstool May 30 2003, 02:42 PM
Take a look at this. The 1 day cycle ozzie whipsawed. Whenever I've seen
this it's been very bearish.



Posted by: zman May 30 2003, 02:42 PM
at this point I am afraind that we might stay in this range and close at
965

Posted by: drstool May 30 2003, 02:43 PM
I'm referring to the 26/18 stos.

Posted by: AnotherOne May 30 2003, 02:43 PM
QUOTE (drstool @ May 30 2003, 01:40 PM)
I bet ya a few shorts got shook out on that little move.

Yah. I lightened up a bit.

Posted by: GregFokker May 30 2003, 02:44 PM
National terror alert lowered to yellow, to match the puddle under my desk


Posted by: drstool May 30 2003, 02:45 PM
lower highs all day in csco and intc. May not mean much, but I happened to
notice.

Posted by: DoubleFlush May 30 2003, 02:46 PM
..

Posted by: zman May 30 2003, 02:47 PM
it should be an interesting last hour

Posted by: AnotherOne May 30 2003, 02:47 PM
My thinking at this point is that it grinds up for another week or two and
pulls back into early July. Then another leg up.

Perhaps a Hindenburg by fall. Oh, the liquidity.



Posted by: milt May 30 2003, 02:47 PM
QUOTE (GregFokker @ May 30 2003, 02:44 PM)
National terror alert lowered to yellow, to match the puddle under
my desk

Have they got a brown alert?I think i'm at it...

Posted by: Metamucil May 30 2003, 02:48 PM
Bonkers threw over 834.50.......the 61.25 fib level from the all-time
high; now back below. Whopsaw..........Oyster 72 weekly line still holding
spx
monthly big pic


weekly spx with 72ma


Posted by: AnotherOne May 30 2003, 02:48 PM
QUOTE (drstool @ May 30 2003, 01:45 PM)
lower highs all day in csco and intc. May not mean much, but I
happened to notice.

Yah, and the dippers will be buying.

Posted by: drstool May 30 2003, 02:50 PM
This evening the Stool Gallery features interpretive line art drawings by
world famous post modernist stick figure artist Dr. Stepan N. Stool.
Here's a sample drawing.




Posted by: drstool May 30 2003, 02:52 PM
As you can see from the angularity of the drawings, the artist is
attempting to force his view of the world on it. The question left to the
observer, is, Who am I, What am I doing here?

Posted by: Major Top May 30 2003, 02:56 PM
QUOTE (drstool @ May 30 2003, 01:40 PM)
I bet ya a few shorts got shook out on that little move.

worms

Posted by: DoubleFlush May 30 2003, 03:08 PM
..

Posted by: zman May 30 2003, 03:12 PM
I have a feeling that if the market closes strong our next target is going
to be 976 then to 1014...There is an awful lot of cash sitting out there
and with a strong weekly close next week could be very interesting..

Posted by: specie May 30 2003, 03:15 PM
Hi,

Even though policy makers are all full of it, the G-8 this weekend could
be "special".


Posted by: drstool May 30 2003, 03:16 PM
If they don't go up now, they're gonna go down!

Seriously, if the one day cycle is going to turn up, it's going to start
now. Otherwise 5 hr cycle down phase will take over. Decision time.

Posted by: AnotherOne May 30 2003, 03:19 PM
QUOTE (zman @ May 30 2003, 02:12 PM)
I have a feeling that if the market closes strong our next target is
going to be 976 then to 1014...There is an awful lot of cash sitting
out there and with a strong weekly close next week could be very
interesting..

I was looking at 962 as being significant and 973 as heavy resistance.

Looks to me like it will take a run at 973.

Posted by: RockLedge May 30 2003, 03:23 PM
Anybody been watching SIRI today?

Volume is incredible... non-stop buying.

I threw some coin at it... what the hell.

Doc,..careful for what you wish for...

Have a great weekend... leave this market alone til monday. My whole week
has been stressed somewhat by the action... not worth it to me.

Enjoy, relax, & thanks for all of your charts and comments.



Posted by: drstool May 30 2003, 03:31 PM
Prime time for 1 day cycle low is now. Should see acceleration to the
upside.

Posted by: drstool May 30 2003, 03:34 PM
Conversely, we have 5 hr cycle juxtaposed with a high due at 3:40. The
juxtapostion helps to explain the narrow range. Sometimes one cycle takes
charge. Other times they fight to a draw when juxtaposed. Best moves are
when they are in gear with a near simultaneous high or low. .

Posted by: PyurAureo May 30 2003, 03:37 PM
QUOTE (milt @ May 30 2003, 01:47 PM)
QUOTE (GregFokker @ May 30 2003, 02:44 PM)
National terror alert lowered to yellow, to match the puddle
under my desk

Have they got a brown alert?I think i'm at it...

I think I'm seeing it ... Yes I am, and it's ... it's, why it's ...
Lavender

Posted by: Injured Grizzly May 30 2003, 03:53 PM
QUOTE (PyurAureo @ May 30 2003, 02:37 PM)
QUOTE (milt @ May 30 2003, 01:47 PM)
QUOTE (GregFokker @ May 30 2003, 02:44 PM)
National terror alert lowered to yellow, to match the
puddle under my desk

Have they got a brown alert?I think i'm at it...

I think I'm seeing it ... Yes I am, and it's ... it's, why it's ...
Lavender

Too much pink lemonade?

Posted by: drstool May 30 2003, 04:04 PM
Looks like they'll close the SPX a couple of points above the line in the
sand. The Nas has blown way through its LITS. I'll have to see what the
implications are on the daily and weekly charts for your Weak End Anals.

For now here at the end of the day the juxtaposed 1 day and 5 hour cycles
fight to a draw. They've hit all the upside cmaps we deal with here in
Stooltrading. Ditto for the longer cycles covered in the Anals.

If ,like me, you don't like to trade from the long side, this has been one
of the most trying weeks any of us will go through. All we can do is try
and follow this trend, and, most of all, be patient. Wait for clear
evidence of a turn. Ditto if you're a neutral swinger who will play it
both ways. Follow the trend until there's clear evidence that it's over.
And congratulations if you have been long!

Since it's been so flat all day, I don't have much in the way of cmaps for
Monday. We'll get a clue once it breaks out of this range. I may have some
data in tonight's Anals. I'll have more in the pre-market here on Monday.

Many tanks for joining me! I look forward to seeing all of you next week.
If you think it has been worthwhile to be a part of this, spread the word!


Have a great weak end!

Stool Out!

Posted by: drstool May 30 2003, 04:05 PM



Posted by: Mousey Dung May 30 2003, 04:11 PM
Lavender?
(Not that there is anything wrong with that.)

Posted by: PyurAureo May 30 2003, 04:25 PM
Stoolies,
Have a great weakend. I hate what I'm going to say and I hope that I'm
wrong, as is typical, but here it is for FWIW, fearless forecast for next
weak :
DJX >9000-9200
NDX 1220-1240
COMPQ > 1625-1650
SPX > 975
Qs > 31
I expect that the posturing this weak was just preparation for a breakout
and runaway to new highs. After that, who knows ... but with current
environment, anything could happen; Up or Down 5-10% would not surprise
me.

I've taken a beating of late and if the fearless forecast above starts to
play out I will take off my Shorts (I hope that I know the stoolies on the
board well enuff to do that). I can't make myself take Long Postions so
will stand aside there and probably continue to trade short term until the
current lunacy subsides.

[DrStool]

Posted by: drstool Jun 2 2003, 08:48 AM
Good morning Stooltraders-

I'll start by posting a replay of Friday night's wrap up from the Weak End
Anals, and will be back with more as we approach the open.

QUOTE
The day started with the futures higher, what else is new, and the
market ran to a 5 hour cycle high around 11:00. A sideways down
phase followed until 1:45 then moved haltingly higher into the
close. That may have been the 5 hour cycle high. A 1 day cycle high
is due around 11:00 on Monday. The upside cmaps are 29.83 on the QQQ
and 965 on the SPX. Cmaps for the 3 day cycle high also due Monday
are 969 on the SPX and 30 on the QQQ. If they don't come on the
first push in the AM, they may make another try in the PM.


I'll just add that right now based onthe fucutures the cmap is 970.50.
Earlier this morning they hit 972.20, so 970.50 would be a lower high. Not
sure I'm reading the SPY's right, but they appear to have a cmap of 97.50,
which is where they are now. That's equivalent to 972 cash. That coincides
with the 3 day cycle cmap on the futures. The qqq appears to have a 1 day
cmap of 30.15 and 30.25 on the 3 day.



Posted by: Flufflander Jun 2 2003, 09:01 AM
Nice pop in gold.

Posted by: blackbelt Jun 2 2003, 09:02 AM
Good morning,

Let me start by following through on my AMGN short trade from Friday.
Since the stop didn't trigger I carry it overnight and today, pre-market
AMGN is up almost two points. So, having a stop at 1.25 points above
entry, I have to cover at a 3 point loss. That's a four digit loss to
start the week...

The lesson is this.. When the stop triggers, we have to take it, even if
it's a lot higher from were we thought it will be.

On to business...

We are entering one of the most critical week's of the year. If you
haven't seen the weekly chart I post over the weekend, visit my site on
Stoolcitites here :
http://stoolcities.c...kbelt/index.htm

We could see an accelerated move to the upside for a day or two and then
reversal to the downside before the week ends. So the key here is to see,
how the week will end. Assuming the high comes this week, the next turn is
late July early August. According to my calculations that should be
another intermediate term low. I don't expect it to be "deep". 50%
retracement of the advance since the March lows is my preference. I'll
update if that changes, based on what the market will actually do.

For today, I'll focus on just a couple of stocks on the long side. My
calendar shows CEPH, BGEN and MMM as stocks with pivots. That's for
day-trading.

My weekly analysis showed the following stocks nearing completion of
bearish weekly patterns: C, JPM, GS, LEH, CAT, UTX, HDI (and possibly
YHOO...no pattern here but a strong time pivot) These will be the stocks
I'll be looking to take shorts on IF the market reverses.

Have a good trading day, week and month

Posted by: blackbelt Jun 2 2003, 09:07 AM
Re: DNA

Last week I posted that the drop (that day it was down 3 points) was an
opportunity to buy on any pullback towards the 20 EMA on the 240m chart. I
also said that most will look to short it, but that was the wrong play.
Today DNA is up 8 points. The fact that it didn't even pulled back towards
the EMA on the 240m timeframe is another sign of great strength.

Take a look at the chart and see the characteristics of this stock before
the gap up today. The same characteristics appear on many stocks over and
over again.

Posted by: bullsdemkilla Jun 2 2003, 09:30 AM
OT:
===

BB & Doc,

I read the BB's comment's over the weekend on M2M, however his final
comment was veeery disappointing and instead of posting on M2M on the
weekend and risk his work[charts] being riped off and posted on other
websites by lurkers, perhaps BB could consider posting on 'Talking Stool'
in 'BB Weekend Forum' {i know he posts otherwise to that forum}which is
available to hundreds of paying stoolies instead of THOUSANDS of lurkers
and users. On the new weekend talking stool he could still invite the many
responses he received this weekend ?
BB, I hope that is a better alternative than posting on the free M2M ?

Doc,

YOU HAVE TO PROMOTE TalkingStool a bit more as many stoolies never ever go
there. In fact I didnt even go their until months after I joined
capitalstool. I am sure the discussion between BB and the stoolies could
be just as good if the stoolies visit it on a regular basis.

Hope you both can work this out as it helps to get BB's medium-longterm
thoughts instead of just his charts with short comments on stoolcities and
then the followup comments from other stoolies.



J

Posted by: strikerm3 Jun 2 2003, 09:30 AM
good morning all!

Posted by: GregFokker Jun 2 2003, 09:34 AM
Welcome, Striker!

Posted by: crooked_analyst Jun 2 2003, 09:35 AM
Anybody getting Tick Readings?....I'm stuck on 988 since opening

Posted by: drstool Jun 2 2003, 09:42 AM
bullsdem- Thank you for your comments! Talking Stool is a great resource.
I do need to promote it more! Just need another hour or two in each day.

Posted by: GregFokker Jun 2 2003, 09:42 AM
QQV is up .79 to 27.47. This looks like a bearish divergence to me.

Posted by: blackbelt Jun 2 2003, 09:47 AM
I will suggest people with access to Talking Stool to read the post by
MarketNeutral related to the 975 +/- number and the current timeframe...
very interesting.

Posted by: drstool Jun 2 2003, 09:52 AM
If I were going to do something today, I'd look for a move up into the
expected 11:00 AM 5 hr cycle high and find a big cap name that appeared
due for a concurrent high heading for a cmap and short it for a day trade,
with a tight stop just above the cmap, allowing for an upside into a 1 day
cycle high around 12:00. Alternatively, I could wait for the 1 day cycle
high. Will update you on my thinking prior to those times.

Posted by: zman Jun 2 2003, 09:52 AM
just a reminder at 10am the supply management manufacturing index comes
out..Last number was 45.4 they are expecting 48...if this is exceeded I
look for another push possibly to 977.60..if in line then should head
lower..

Posted by: drstool Jun 2 2003, 09:55 AM
Unfortunately, while writing my posts, I sometimes miss things, like oops,
the market just sold off.

But the plan is to look toward 11:00, so I'll stick to that.



Posted by: ROG Jun 2 2003, 09:57 AM
Moneyflows are positive into consumers, negative into tech. Opposite flow
to window dressing.

Posted by: blackbelt Jun 2 2003, 09:58 AM
5m charts indicate impulse move to the upside. The pullback will be bought
and a new high should follow. That matches Doc's 1 day cycle projection.

I'll be looking for pullbacks to the 20 EMA on the 5m charts on uptrending
stocks

Posted by: drstool Jun 2 2003, 09:58 AM
qqq has fallen a little short of 3 day cycle cmap of 30.25, but 3 day
cycle ozzie is starting to roll over.

Posted by: strikerm3 Jun 2 2003, 09:59 AM
NTAP bottoming out hopefully

Posted by: drstool Jun 2 2003, 10:02 AM
The 1 day cmap on qqq was 30.15 and they just exceeded that.

Posted by: strikerm3 Jun 2 2003, 10:03 AM
targeting 2 on SIRI. Hard call since 3.50 above looks good......




Posted by: DoubleFlush Jun 2 2003, 10:06 AM
CBOE PCR 9:00 AM CST

Equity 0.47
Index 1.77

Overall 0.66


Posted by: blackbelt Jun 2 2003, 10:06 AM
QUOTE (strikerm3 @ Jun 2 2003, 08:59 AM)
NTAP bottoming out hopefully

Stirker, here is the weekly NTAP. Last week it was a time pivot and it's
also approaching resistance and a Bearish Gartley in the Fib zone



Posted by: drstool Jun 2 2003, 10:07 AM
The SPX fell .40 shy of the 972 cmap. If the open was the high, I'm too
late on this move. So I'll wait for the next one. If the next cycle high
falls short, it suggests to me that I may be able to hold a short
overnight because the 3-8 day cycles might be rolling over. Too early to
know now, but these are the tings I will be looking for today as I look at
the Stooltrading charts.

Posted by: drstool Jun 2 2003, 10:09 AM
OK, I have misspoke in a couple of posts. The expected 11:00 AM high is
for the 1 day cycle. The 5 hr high was at the open based on what I had
posted in the initial post. Mea culpa... Hopefully I'll get a second
chance around 11:00.

Posted by: AnotherOne Jun 2 2003, 10:10 AM
QUOTE (blackbelt @ Jun 2 2003, 08:47 AM)
I will suggest people with access to Talking Stool to read the post
by MarketNeutral related to the 975 +/- number and the current
timeframe... very interesting.

The 973/975 area seems to be key resistance and very strong resistance at
that. I am watching carefully as I think a strong move above this range
means SPX 1000+ and a negation of the "neckline".

DOW is also running into heavy resistance. If it clears 9100 a mover
significatnly higher is possible.

Currently mostly long in my options portfolio (APC, CSCO, DELL G, JNPR,
LAB, NXTL, QQQ, SUNW, WDC) except for MSFT and CLS. Still stuck with puts
in DD and JPM that were profitable, but have been trapped in account
transfer limbo for 2+ weeks. Will likely take losses on those.

Calls are all in the money or close to it (APC added today). The exception
is SUNW. I am loading up on October 5 calls at $0.35 - 0.40. So far 30
contracts. I will probably buy another 20.

Posted by: RockLedge Jun 2 2003, 10:11 AM
QUOTE (strikerm3 @ Jun 2 2003, 09:03 AM)
targeting 2 on SIRI. Hard call since 3.50 above looks good......

Did you see Friday's action... WHat a dog fight to get thru 1.50.

Not happy with the gap up on the open..... ruined a weekly candle IMO.

But,... I see what you see...even much higher than that.

Where's there's coke,..there's a pepsi.

Posted by: drstool Jun 2 2003, 10:12 AM
eSignal is constipated again.

Posted by: strikerm3 Jun 2 2003, 10:12 AM
QUOTE (blackbelt @ Jun 2 2003, 09:06 AM)
QUOTE (strikerm3 @ Jun 2 2003, 08:59 AM)
NTAP bottoming out hopefully

Stirker, here is the weekly NTAP. Last week it was a time pivot and
it's also approaching resistance and a Bearish Gartley in the Fib
zone



thanks, looking for an exit later. It got met with alot of selling at the
open. Hoping it drifts back up near highs today for a sell above 17.50.
.......geez it just moved .20 cents...watching closely

check out VOXXE.....looking for an exit. Going straight up, big volume
once again.

Posted by: AnotherOne Jun 2 2003, 10:13 AM
Doesn't look like we'll see a gap fill. Another flagpole perhaps--inital
gap up and dangling serpent the remainder?

Posted by: blackbelt Jun 2 2003, 10:15 AM
CAH

It came out of my short list and into "swing long" list. Inverted H&S
pattern that spans 5 months with two "shoulders". As long as the low from
5/29 holds the trend is "up". The question is how will it react, if the
market moves lowers....

There is always risk..

Posted by: blackbelt Jun 2 2003, 10:16 AM
QUOTE (strikerm3 @ Jun 2 2003, 09:12 AM)
check out VOXXE.....looking for an exit. Going straight up, big
volume once again.

I know this one... Every night I check the new 52-week highs and lows and
from this list is where I buy for my IRA. Nearing 10, as we approach cycle
highs is not for me.. Good thrust though..

Posted by: strikerm3 Jun 2 2003, 10:16 AM
SIRI already there. This should be interesting if it breaks 2.....looking
for breakdown but its moving fast.

Posted by: drstool Jun 2 2003, 10:17 AM
spx just exceeded upside cmaps, so I'll recalc.

Posted by: drstool Jun 2 2003, 10:19 AM
Now it looks like the target is 976.60

Posted by: RockLedge Jun 2 2003, 10:19 AM
QUOTE (strikerm3 @ Jun 2 2003, 09:16 AM)
SIRI already there. This should be interesting if it breaks
2.....looking for breakdown but its moving fast.

Bottle rocket! Volume is in a panic buy...

Posted by: strikerm3 Jun 2 2003, 10:22 AM
QUOTE (blackbelt @ Jun 2 2003, 09:16 AM)
QUOTE (strikerm3 @ Jun 2 2003, 09:12 AM)
check out VOXXE.....looking for an exit. Going straight up,
big volume once again.

I know this one... Every night I check the new 52-week highs and
lows and from this list is where I buy for my IRA. Nearing 10, as we
approach cycle highs is not for me.. Good thrust though..

thanks, I know. Wild guess says it has something to do with the E
lately....use to be a good value stock play awhile back....overvalued now.
Ill be out later if it runs up more. Been watching increased trading on
CPST early afternoons....gaps around but looks like its got more legs..





**for clarification, Im long the stocks Im mentioning already and looking
for exits shortterm.

Posted by: drstool Jun 2 2003, 10:22 AM
qqq cmap holding around 30.18 so far.

Posted by: blackbelt Jun 2 2003, 10:23 AM
Tomorrow Saturn (contraction) enters Cancer (housing). We could see
selling coming into the housing sector. If it does, the volume has to be
large during down days. This is a longer term observation and it doesn't
have to happen tomorrow. It could take days or weeks. The criteria are in
place. The confirmation is what we need.

Posted by: GregFokker Jun 2 2003, 10:28 AM
QQQ has traded 29.6M shares so far against an average daily volume of 71M
shares.

Posted by: Mousey Dung Jun 2 2003, 10:28 AM
REMEMBER, ONE MONTH FROM TODAY, WEENIESDAY, JULY 2ND
The New York Chapter of the American Society of Short Sellers ("NYCASS")
Second Quarter Networking and Farting Around Together in Public Places
Confabulation is to convene at 6:00 p.m., Wednesday, July 2nd.

This time we will have a Special Guest.
Direct from The Happy Acres Retirement Condo Community Assocation, Happy
Acres Florida,
the Hon. Dr. Stepan N. Stool, A.S.S. Chair, Chief of Stock Proctology,
Capitalstool.com will be farting around with us!

Convocation will occur at:
Robert Emmett's Bar and Restaurant
694 8th Avenue at 44th Street
2nd Floor
New York, New York

Go to the Second Floor and ask for The Stool Party!

Check out Robert Emmett's Bar and Restaurant at:
www.RobertEmmetts.com

Please RSVP on the thread at LOB if you are attending so I can get a
general count of how many are coming. If you are a Lurker and want to
come, send an e-mail to: nycass@capitalstool.com
Please dress appropriately (Pants required. Remember, Doc is going to be
there!).

And, as always . . .
“All the food and drink you can afford!”


Posted by: drstool Jun 2 2003, 10:30 AM
spx 3 day cmap 978

Posted by: DoubleFlush Jun 2 2003, 10:33 AM
..

Posted by: drstool Jun 2 2003, 10:38 AM
Hey Mousey-

We should send that to guys like Fleck and Roach, Grant, Cliggott. Invite
a few media types too like David Callaway.

Posted by: drstool Jun 2 2003, 10:39 AM
T minus 22 minutes.

Posted by: blackbelt Jun 2 2003, 10:40 AM
http://stoolcities.c...elt/indexes.htm

....on resistance

Posted by: drstool Jun 2 2003, 10:41 AM
I have my eye on CSCO as it approaches 3 day cmap and doublke top at
17.25.

Posted by: drstool Jun 2 2003, 10:42 AM
Of course thsi market feels like it's never going to pull back again in my
lifetime.

Posted by: drstool Jun 2 2003, 10:43 AM
Mr. Bill looks interesting here, but I haven't had a chance to run the
numbers on him.

Posted by: AnotherOne Jun 2 2003, 10:46 AM
VXGN may be worth watching for an entry later on. Had it on my buy list,
but didn't have the free capital. It's already made it's initial move off
of it's bottom so I'm not going to chase it here, but if should drops back
toward the break-out zone and reverses, I'd be interested.

Posted by: drstool Jun 2 2003, 10:47 AM
Thee qqq chart doesn't look like a short setup, but if it fails to make a
new high here, that could change pdq.

5 hr cycle low is due at 12:00. That's not much time. Then the next 5 hour
high comes around 3:00.

Posted by: blackbelt Jun 2 2003, 10:48 AM
CCMP

(from last week's post)... almost +3 today. Sligthly extended to the
upside, this one could fly.... Very volatile stock when it gets going
could provide good day-trading opportunities

Posted by: RockLedge Jun 2 2003, 10:48 AM
Acting very toppy to me....

Panic buying could lead to panic selling?

Right now that puppy's acting like it did at the 1.47-1.50 area. Pound,
pound, pound that rock and build cause for the next move.

When this one corrects, it's gonna feel like the house of terror.


Posted by: AnotherOne Jun 2 2003, 10:48 AM
QUOTE (drstool @ Jun 2 2003, 09:43 AM)
Mr. Bill looks interesting here, but I haven't had a chance to run
the numbers on him.

Will probably close my CLS June 15 puts today (may as well use the funds
elsewhere). May also close my Mr. Bill June 25 puts. It has a bearish
chart, but if the tide continues rising it will go up with the tide. I'd
be interested in your analysis on that one.

Posted by: drstool Jun 2 2003, 10:52 AM
Looking at the s60, I think I should forget about shorting for a few days.




Posted by: drstool Jun 2 2003, 10:54 AM
Ooops, refresh your page to see the right chart above.


Posted by: drstool Jun 2 2003, 10:55 AM
T minus 5 minutes.

Posted by: RockLedge Jun 2 2003, 10:57 AM
Out! 1.97

Market orders will not be orderly, for sure.

I'm done...



Posted by: strikerm3 Jun 2 2003, 10:59 AM
QUOTE (RockLedge @ Jun 2 2003, 09:57 AM)
Out! 1.97

Market orders will not be orderly, for sure.

I'm done...

good job, still holding for next hopeful swoop

Posted by: drstool Jun 2 2003, 10:59 AM
Time's up. Do you know where your cycle high is?

Posted by: AnotherOne Jun 2 2003, 11:00 AM
QUOTE (AnotherOne @ Jun 2 2003, 09:48 AM)
QUOTE (drstool @ Jun 2 2003, 09:43 AM)
Mr. Bill looks interesting here, but I haven't had a chance to
run the numbers on him.

Will probably close my CLS June 15 puts today (may as well use the
funds elsewhere). May also close my Mr. Bill June 25 puts. It has a
bearish chart, but if the tide continues rising it will go up with
the tide. I'd be interested in your analysis on that one.

Oops, these were July's, not Junes, but closed them anyway along with Dell
June calls. Decided it would be more profitable to put the money into
energy sector calls.

Posted by: RockLedge Jun 2 2003, 11:10 AM
QUOTE (strikerm3 @ Jun 2 2003, 09:59 AM)
QUOTE (RockLedge @ Jun 2 2003, 09:57 AM)
Out! 1.97

Market orders will not be orderly, for sure.

I'm done...

good job, still holding for next hopeful swoop

It's not done... but in 8 trading days this one has run 100%.

I think 1.50 is bottom... I don't think it gets there, who knows.

Here it goes again....

Posted by: DoubleFlush Jun 2 2003, 11:13 AM
..

Posted by: RockLedge Jun 2 2003, 11:14 AM
BB,... CCMP justa motoring along.

Posted by: blackbelt Jun 2 2003, 11:14 AM
CCMP

...from earlier....+5 today I thought it could fly, but not in one
day....

p.s. I'm not in it....I run out of money

Posted by: blackbelt Jun 2 2003, 11:16 AM
QUOTE (RockLedge @ Jun 2 2003, 10:14 AM)
BB,... CCMP justa motoring along.

Strong stocks getting stronger and weak strong getting weaker.

I always believed that if the MMs are planning to gun a stock in either
direction, they won't give you an opportunity to enter. The braves will
have to jump on the ship while in motion and that's dangerous.

Posted by: RockLedge Jun 2 2003, 11:20 AM
RRI heading lower on higher volume...

EP at this price just bothers me... needs to test 8.00 again.

Shorts like these could just drag & drip.

Posted by: AnotherOne Jun 2 2003, 11:22 AM
Nice rise on NGEN today. I've been holding that one for several days.
Didn't notice today's action until a few minutes ago when I looked through
my portfoilio screen--had forgotten to add it to Streamer where I do most
of my monitoring.

Posted by: drstool Jun 2 2003, 11:22 AM
spx cmap still 976.60- 1 day. 978- 3 day.

Posted by: RockLedge Jun 2 2003, 11:26 AM
QUOTE (blackbelt @ Jun 2 2003, 10:14 AM)
CCMP

...from earlier....+5 today I thought it could fly, but not in one
day....

p.s. I'm not in it....I run out of money

Well thanks for sharing... there might just be somebody that has a little
to throw around...

Bull never lets you in... bear never lets you out.

Crazy day.....

Posted by: drstool Jun 2 2003, 11:27 AM
1 day cycle RoC on qqq starting to head down.

Posted by: blackbelt Jun 2 2003, 11:31 AM
The Dow approached 9000 but did not tagged it yet. That says that the next
drop will be bought and the number should be tagged in the near future..
The 60m oscillators on that index shows impulse

Posted by: drstool Jun 2 2003, 11:50 AM
5 hr cycle low is due at 12:00. Once again we have juxtapostion. Either
one cycle takes control or they fight to a draw and go sideways. If the
5hr cycle is in control, they push up again with next high due at 3:00. If
they roll over then 1 day cycle is controlling and next low is targeted
for around the same. It's almost a perfect opposition with one cycle due
ot be up and one down over the next 3 hours. .

Posted by: blackbelt Jun 2 2003, 12:01 PM
I was looking over the time pivots on the NDX, and other than a minor one
for today I don't see anythink major until 6/5.

Posted by: Metamucil Jun 2 2003, 12:07 PM
dong at 3.6



Posted by: blackbelt Jun 2 2003, 12:08 PM
Update on the Square of Nine..

6/5 is 360 degrees from the 3/12 low.

964 +/- 3 was 360 degrees from the 789 low. Since the market traded above
967 a new cycle is in process with the following targets:

978 - 90 degrees
992 - 180 degrees
1006 - 270 degrees
1021 - 360 degrees

These are main numbers, there are other in between these with the most
important of them 985 on the 135 degree mark

Posted by: Metamucil Jun 2 2003, 12:10 PM
dong at 2.98
'bubble boy' biotech co.




Posted by: drstool Jun 2 2003, 12:14 PM
If they take out the previous 3 day cmap at 978, the next likely level is
986.

Posted by: drstool Jun 2 2003, 12:17 PM
We have a triple sowcow on the QQQ.

Posted by: GregFokker Jun 2 2003, 12:17 PM
Bearish divergence grows: QQV now up 1.82 to 28.50, QQQ up .35 to 30.14.

Posted by: blackbelt Jun 2 2003, 12:22 PM
I don't want to scare anyone with this chart but the resistance is about
50 points higher on the Composite. It's possible we could see an
accelerated move to the upside... Possible....not guarantee


Composite - Weekly



Posted by: drstool Jun 2 2003, 12:33 PM
CSCO looks like it just made the parameters I was looking for.

Some hints of rollover in the indexes

Posted by: DoubleFlush Jun 2 2003, 12:44 PM
..

Posted by: wahoo Jun 2 2003, 12:47 PM
Dollar and Gold both having trend days, counter to the equity markets. NEM
now at 30.25



Posted by: drstool Jun 2 2003, 12:49 PM
ozzies on qqq 1 day cycle chart sitting at key levels. Should accelerate
down on break.

Posted by: wahoo Jun 2 2003, 01:07 PM
The high today on the big SP contract is an almost exact (978.20 vs
978.17) .382 retrace of the March 2001 high to the Oct low.

May hold it for a bit.



Posted by: drstool Jun 2 2003, 01:15 PM
Anals mid-day update.

1:15 One day cycle highs appear to have been hit late, around 12:15. This
is usually a sign of a continuing uptrend. Upside cmaps were hit in the
976-980 range and around 30.18 on the QQQ. The cycle is in a down phase as
of 1:00. The low is due by 3:00. The down phase looks like it will be flat
or shallow. 3 day cycle cmaps now look like 986-990 on the SPX and 30.25
on the QQQ, barring a bit of a break to the downside over the next hour.

Posted by: marketneutral Jun 2 2003, 01:20 PM
QUOTE (wahoo @ Jun 2 2003, 12:07 PM)
The high today on the big SP contract is an almost exact (978.20 vs
978.17) .382 retrace of the March 2001 high to the Oct low.

May hold it for a bit.

3/12 788.9
3/21 895.9
5/20 912.05

.618(3/21 - 3/12) + 5/20 = 978.176



Posted by: blackbelt Jun 2 2003, 01:24 PM
UNH

is trading at the 20 day EMA and the 60m chart shows "Three drives to a
low" pattern competed at 94 last Friday. It looks like a bull flag on the
daily and it's very close to 100 for it not to try to make a run at it....
Needs to push higher to initiate the trade

Posted by: blackbelt Jun 2 2003, 01:34 PM
MWD

Second penetration of the 11/25/02 pivot high. The first time it failed to
hold that level (4/23/03). If the volume follows during this time it
should target 51 in the short term and 62 in the longer term. It should
not trade below 44 in the short term and especially below 42 in the longer
term

Posted by: wahoo Jun 2 2003, 01:38 PM
QUOTE (marketneutral @ Jun 2 2003, 01:20 PM)
QUOTE (wahoo @ Jun 2 2003, 12:07 PM)
The high today on the big SP contract is an almost exact
(978.20 vs 978.17) .382 retrace of the March 2001 high to the
Oct low.

May hold it for a bit.

3/12 788.9
3/21 895.9
5/20 912.05

.618(3/21 - 3/12) + 5/20 = 978.176

Well, we got a little over an hour out of it

Posted by: drstool Jun 2 2003, 01:43 PM
looks like a possible failed break out.

Posted by: drstool Jun 2 2003, 01:44 PM
That's 5 times qqq has gone at the 30.18 level and backed away.

Posted by: drstool Jun 2 2003, 01:46 PM
Any kind of decent pullback will negate that 986. But if it stays flat
now, you can bank on it, and probably 1000 too.

Posted by: drstool Jun 2 2003, 01:51 PM
Just noticed the Feed did a minor drain today. Can't blame this on them.

Posted by: drstool Jun 2 2003, 01:53 PM
Inerimr cmap on this upward shinny on SPX is 979.

Posted by: drstool Jun 2 2003, 01:53 PM
on qqq it's 30.19.

Posted by: drstool Jun 2 2003, 01:56 PM
Both Uncle Buck and bonds are weak today. That 3.30 area on the 10 year is
holding. This is exrtremely critical. It it breaks it goes to 2.60. If it
holds, it could be the beginning of major reversal. See charts in today's
Anals.

Posted by: blackbelt Jun 2 2003, 01:57 PM
The 15m charts shows the kind of negative divergences that suggest a
pullback towards the 20 EMA on that timeframe. That's about 5 points lower
on the ES. The 60m still no signs of a top

Posted by: blackbelt Jun 2 2003, 01:59 PM
PIXR

A technical example that something is different this time.... The stock
went from 60 to 51 back up to 60 again.

An example that trading is better than buy-and-hold or short-and-hold

Posted by: drstool Jun 2 2003, 02:01 PM
Is this it, or just another tease. SPX got to 979. Ozzies are hesitating.

Posted by: drstool Jun 2 2003, 02:04 PM
1 day cycle ozzies are rolling over. A decent pullback will negate the 3
day cycle cmap of 984.

Posted by: Flufflander Jun 2 2003, 02:08 PM
Nice call on the S&P BB.

Posted by: drstool Jun 2 2003, 02:09 PM
The problem with negative divergences in an uptrend is that they are
symptomatic of a sidewasy down phase and are bullish in that context. If
price moves down after a negative divergence, then it signals that bigger
cycles have turned down. That's when they're bearish. Divergences happen
all the time when a cycle phase runs countrer to the larger phcycle phase
or ternd. They are basically neutral indications until resolved either in
the direction of the trend or against it. It's the direction of the
resolution that matters.

Posted by: blackbelt Jun 2 2003, 02:09 PM
Today is the first time that the SPX is trading above the 9/21/01 close
after an intermediate term bottom. The price area from 6/25/02-7/9/02
should provide some kind of resistance. Also the breakout level around 938
(the close of 11/27/02) needs to be tested again, if that upswing is to
continue.

I will repeat that the bulls need to close the week above 965 and the
bears below it

Posted by: drstool Jun 2 2003, 02:11 PM
Thsi could either be a 1 day cycle low on the qqq, or the beginning of a
breakdown. next 15 minutes should tell.

Posted by: DoubleFlush Jun 2 2003, 02:11 PM
..

Posted by: drstool Jun 2 2003, 02:14 PM
Seeing sell signals on qqq 3 day cycle.

Posted by: drstool Jun 2 2003, 02:15 PM
qqq interim cmap 29.90.

Posted by: strikerm3 Jun 2 2003, 02:17 PM
QUOTE (drstool @ Jun 2 2003, 01:09 PM)
The problem with negative divergences in an uptrend is that they are
symptomatic of a sidewasy down phase and are bullish in that
context. If price moves down after a negative divergence, then it
signals that bigger cycles have turned down. That's when they're
bearish. Divergences happen all the time when a cycle phase runs
countrer to the larger phcycle phase or ternd. They are basically
neutral indications until resolved either in the direction of the
trend or against it. It's the direction of the resolution that
matters.

would this be a good example....negative divergance last week.

http://www.saavycharts.info/

Posted by: RockLedge Jun 2 2003, 02:21 PM
NVDA rolling over....

Weak all day long...

I thought I was done with SIRI.... Stop in place.. (fingers crossed) eyes
closed...

Posted by: zman Jun 2 2003, 02:25 PM
boy if that's it for the pullback we are heading higher and higher...oh
well, going with the trend...I see 1014.31

Posted by: drstool Jun 2 2003, 02:29 PM
Now is when it gets dangerous. This half hour is prime time for the 1 day
cycle low. We won't know if those weakening 3 day cycle indications are
for real until we see how things go in the next few minutes. The market
still hasn't broken the uptrending pattern and hasn't fallen enough to
make the 984-986 projection moot. It could, but it hasn't done it yet.

Posted by: drstool Jun 2 2003, 02:30 PM
the other hand is that if the rally doesn't get a kickstart in the next 30
minutes, we should finally see some signaificant profit taking come in.
Every reversal starts as "profit taking."

Posted by: strikerm3 Jun 2 2003, 02:35 PM
OPWV heading to 3 hopefully.

Posted by: RockLedge Jun 2 2003, 02:37 PM
QUOTE (drstool @ Jun 2 2003, 01:30 PM)
the other hand is that if the rally doesn't get a kickstart in the
next 30 minutes, we should finally see some signaificant profit
taking come in. Every reversal starts as "profit taking."

IMO,... that has started.



Posted by: drstool Jun 2 2003, 02:40 PM
I'm not convinced yet.

Posted by: drstool Jun 2 2003, 02:41 PM
First step would be to take out 975.50. That should get something started.
If they can't do that, then 985 is a lock by tomorrow morning.

Posted by: drstool Jun 2 2003, 02:43 PM
If they come down and hold that 2:00 low, they run up through the highs on
the 1 day cycle upturn.

Posted by: drstool Jun 2 2003, 02:44 PM
This is it. Right here. For all the marbles.

Posted by: zman Jun 2 2003, 02:45 PM
I totally agree Doc, nice call

Posted by: drstool Jun 2 2003, 02:46 PM
Bears can get control of this thing right here if they can just push a
little more.

Posted by: drstool Jun 2 2003, 02:47 PM
qqq just broke the bottom band of the 3 day cycle band projection.

Posted by: Injured Grizzly Jun 2 2003, 02:47 PM
QUOTE (drstool @ Jun 2 2003, 01:46 PM)
Bears can get control of this thing right here if they can just push
a little more.

Does pulling from the bottom count. I can barely reach it from here.

Posted by: RockLedge Jun 2 2003, 02:48 PM
QUOTE (drstool @ Jun 2 2003, 01:44 PM)
This is it. Right here. For all the marbles.

"Ho dee doe,... ho de doe!!!

(Hold the door)

Posted by: drstool Jun 2 2003, 02:48 PM
I'm trying to post the chart but eSignal is constipated again.

Posted by: RockLedge Jun 2 2003, 02:49 PM
Let freedom ring!

Stopped out...

NVDA in a waterfall...

Posted by: drstool Jun 2 2003, 02:49 PM
mamback momback momback

Posted by: drstool Jun 2 2003, 02:50 PM
eSignal is such a piece of crap I can't believe it.

Posted by: GregFokker Jun 2 2003, 02:50 PM
(here we go)

Posted by: drstool Jun 2 2003, 02:50 PM
Every sitngle time the market picks up a little volume the damn program
basically slows to a crawl.

Posted by: blackbelt Jun 2 2003, 02:54 PM
ES on the 20 EMA on the 15m. NQ lost that level, and now it's on the 20
EMA on the 60m

I don't short anything until I see a higher high on the daily followed by
a lower low on the same timeframe.

Posted by: drstool Jun 2 2003, 02:56 PM
qqq interim cmap1 day cycle 29.72. Possible final cmap 29.60.

Posted by: strikerm3 Jun 2 2003, 02:58 PM
took profits.....have a good day all

Posted by: Mousey Dung Jun 2 2003, 02:59 PM
Ha tcha cha!

Posted by: zman Jun 2 2003, 02:59 PM
If 970 breaks that should do it

Posted by: drstool Jun 2 2003, 03:01 PM
I think the Grand Coulee Dam just broke.

Posted by: blackbelt Jun 2 2003, 03:02 PM
Composite on the 20 EMA on the 60m. If that level doesn't hold, the
selling will accelerate

Posted by: drstool Jun 2 2003, 03:03 PM
I don't listen to the news. Was there a news trigger? It would be nice if
this "just happened."

Posted by: AnotherOne Jun 2 2003, 03:03 PM
Glad I closed out most calls and some outright longs earlier. Not ready to
short yet. Will look for a bounce back to a lower high first.

Posted by: blackbelt Jun 2 2003, 03:05 PM
SYMC

close to an ouside down day

Posted by: DoubleFlush Jun 2 2003, 03:05 PM
..

Posted by: Injured Grizzly Jun 2 2003, 03:06 PM
QUOTE (drstool @ Jun 2 2003, 02:03 PM)
I don't listen to the news. Was there a news trigger? It would be
nice if this "just happened."

No news on CNbs

Posted by: Injured Grizzly Jun 2 2003, 03:08 PM
Sorry I misspelled it..

Posted by: drstool Jun 2 2003, 03:09 PM
spx interim cmap 969.50. While we may have broken the uptrend, the overdue
1 day cycle low could trigger a rebound.

Posted by: drstool Jun 2 2003, 03:10 PM
IG- If I didn't know you better, I might think you did it on purpose.

Posted by: blackbelt Jun 2 2003, 03:13 PM
Dow - Daily

This is the first attemp to penetrate the previous pivot high. As far a
Fib clusters are concerned, the resistance is higher. For this index,
there is no time pivot for today. The verdict is not out yet.



Posted by: AnotherOne Jun 2 2003, 03:13 PM
Looks like the drop was mostly in the COMPX/NDX. The Jokes seems to be
holding.

Posted by: Injured Grizzly Jun 2 2003, 03:15 PM
QUOTE (drstool @ Jun 2 2003, 02:10 PM)
IG- If I didn't know you better, I might think you did it on
purpose.



Really Doc, I had spelled it Crapvision first. Had to correct it.

Posted by: PyurAureo Jun 2 2003, 03:17 PM
QT,
Just curious, did you take some on that Cubes stumble? Or are you waiting
for a knee scraping fall?


Posted by: drstool Jun 2 2003, 03:17 PM
In my view it would be extremely significant if they were not able to
generate a bounce from here. It would indicate the dip buyers have nothing
left in the dipper. 1 day cycle low in an uptrend that fails to generate a
rally is bearish.

Posted by: PyurAureo Jun 2 2003, 03:18 PM
QUOTE (drstool @ Jun 2 2003, 02:01 PM)
I think the Grand Coulee Dam just broke.

Wish it could be the Gran Stoolee, Damn it just broke!!!!!!!!!!!!


Posted by: blackbelt Jun 2 2003, 03:19 PM
For the Dow I should have added that the trendline that connects the highs
of August 02 and December 02 came because resistance at the high today

Posted by: drstool Jun 2 2003, 03:19 PM
spx cmap now 967.

Posted by: Quicktrade Jun 2 2003, 03:20 PM
QUOTE (PyurAureo @ Jun 2 2003, 02:17 PM)
QT,
Just curious, did you take some on that Cubes stumble? Or are you
waiting for a knee scraping fall?

Fully loaded with puts at the high today. Hoping to sell at 28.40 QQQ
area. Fingers crossed.

Quicktrade

Posted by: drstool Jun 2 2003, 03:20 PM
Let me amend that to 968, which is where they are.

Posted by: RockLedge Jun 2 2003, 03:20 PM
Nah, not too much of a sell off...

Doc, BB, chances on this thing snapping right back at us...



Posted by: drstool Jun 2 2003, 03:21 PM
qqq cmap now 29.40

Posted by: drstool Jun 2 2003, 03:24 PM
starting to do some serious technical damage. breaking the lower 3 day
cycle channel projeciton on SPX.

Posted by: blackbelt Jun 2 2003, 03:25 PM
QUOTE (RockLedge @ Jun 2 2003, 02:20 PM)
Doc, BB, chances on this thing snapping right back at us...

I won't try to pin point the exact minute of the high. This week is very
important as I've been saying over the weekend. The high could have been
today or it could come later on the week. After that a low end of July.

But I won't short until I'm sure it's turning around. I lost quite a few
trades on the short side recently and I don't want to risk it again.

Posted by: drstool Jun 2 2003, 03:26 PM
Serious damage here. 1 day cycle low is way late, and key cycle bands
being broken down.

Posted by: drstool Jun 2 2003, 03:27 PM
We are starting to see waves of profit taking and suddenly buyers have
disappeared.

Posted by: PyurAureo Jun 2 2003, 03:28 PM
QUOTE (Quicktrade @ Jun 2 2003, 02:20 PM)
QUOTE (PyurAureo @ Jun 2 2003, 02:17 PM)
QT,
Just curious, did you take some on that Cubes stumble? Or are
you waiting for a knee scraping fall?

Fully loaded with puts at the high today. Hoping to sell at 28.40
QQQ area. Fingers crossed.

Quicktrade

Good one...
There's most recently been something wrong with my mouse. It doesn't like
to move to the Put side of the tables ...

Posted by: RockLedge Jun 2 2003, 03:28 PM
QUOTE (blackbelt @ Jun 2 2003, 02:25 PM)
QUOTE (RockLedge @ Jun 2 2003, 02:20 PM)
Doc, BB, chances on this thing snapping right back at us...

I won't try to pin point the exact minute of the high. This week is
very important as I've been saying over the weekend. The high could
have been today or it could come later on the week. After that a low
end of July.

But I won't short until I'm sure it's turning around. I lost quite a
few trades on the short side recently and I don't want to risk it
again.

There is such a thing as a bullish sell off, right?

I would assume one that is very steep, very quick.

A day or two?



Posted by: the end Jun 2 2003, 03:28 PM
If the rally is the first leg of a larger one and it is over then one
should expect a move to the 880-885 area. I don't know if that will
happen.

Posted by: zman Jun 2 2003, 03:29 PM
Looks like 963

Posted by: drstool Jun 2 2003, 03:31 PM
remember that if they get back below 962-960 it's back below the long term
downtrend line.

Posted by: the end Jun 2 2003, 03:32 PM
If we get thru 962 I would see that as a trend channel break and we should
continue on down.

Posted by: blackbelt Jun 2 2003, 03:33 PM
QUOTE (RockLedge @ Jun 2 2003, 02:28 PM)

There is such a thing as a bullish sell off, right?

I would assume one that is very steep, very quick.

A day or two?

Actually there is. It has to do with the rate of the upswing. Fast up/Fast
down. The SPX is still on the "green" and 14 Nasdaq points isn't a big
deal after the huge run up we had.

In my opinion, this isn't going to be a very easy to trade downswing till
the end of July. The trend should be up till the end of October, according
to my analysis, so there is going to be accumulation during this drop.
That leaves us with a time period of about 2 months with a lot of trading
on both sides.

That's how I see it

Posted by: drstool Jun 2 2003, 03:34 PM
1590 was a critical level on Nas then 1563. If they fall back below those
numbers this week the long term downtrend is still intact.

Posted by: AnotherOne Jun 2 2003, 03:35 PM
QUOTE (drstool @ Jun 2 2003, 02:17 PM)
In my view it would be extremely significant if they were not able
to generate a bounce from here. It would indicate the dip buyers
have nothing left in the dipper. 1 day cycle low in an uptrend that
fails to generate a rally is bearish.

The indexes reached major resistance points and fell back significantly.
Tomorrow hsould be telling. Closed out my CLS and MSFT puts a bit early,
but will look to reload on a lower high (if it doesn't keep doing down ).


Posted by: blackbelt Jun 2 2003, 03:36 PM
Of course you don't want to do what I did on Friday: short AMGN, cover 3
points higher and then the stock goes 5 points below your cover level.

That's a no-no

Posted by: the end Jun 2 2003, 03:38 PM
There is a gap on the 15 minute spx chart at todays open. Just somethibg
to keep in mind.

Posted by: wndysrf Jun 2 2003, 03:39 PM
BB:

Don't feel bad.

I donged AMGN on the open.

Lost a few bucks.

Got caught up in the BioWreck hysteria....;

Posted by: RockLedge Jun 2 2003, 03:41 PM
Doc, BB,,

Awesome stuff,... thank you very much.

Razors edge, @1590.




Posted by: the end Jun 2 2003, 03:45 PM
That is one helleva shooting star on the spx. We have seen so many of them
that I almost want to disregard it. I won't though.

Posted by: drstool Jun 2 2003, 03:45 PM
I said this morning I thought there would be an opportunity to take shorts
in some big cap names around 11:00 and mentioned MSFT and CSCO. These
would have been slightly profitable if take at that time. A little better
later when CSCO in particular got close to cmap of 17.25. I had the high
cmap on qqq at 30.18 all day. That would have been a good play as the high
was 30.20, and the 3 day cmap was 30.25.

At this point, the 1 day cycle low should be in, and we should expect a
rebound in the AM. However, the longer cycles appear to be turning over,
so I would not be adverse to holding overnight through an AM up phase to
see what happens after that. Depends on your time frames and comfort
zones.

Posted by: RockLedge Jun 2 2003, 03:48 PM
Riverboaters nightmare,....

More or less feels like the Snake River... casino chips everywhere..
playing cards spilled all over the floor.

Unreal... never seen anything like this..

Posted by: wahoo Jun 2 2003, 03:49 PM
QUOTE (blackbelt @ Jun 2 2003, 03:33 PM)
QUOTE (RockLedge @ Jun 2 2003, 02:28 PM)

There is such a thing as a bullish sell off, right?

I would assume one that is very steep, very quick.

A day or two?

Actually there is. It has to do with the rate of the upswing. Fast
up/Fast down. The SPX is still on the "green" and 14 Nasdaq points
isn't a big deal after the huge run up we had.

In my opinion, this isn't going to be a very easy to trade downswing
till the end of July. The trend should be up till the end of
October, according to my analysis, so there is going to be
accumulation during this drop. That leaves us with a time period of
about 2 months with a lot of trading on both sides.

That's how I see it

All the recent corrections have been 2-3 days in length, which one would
expect when trending. One of the first confirmation we need to see is a
selloff greater than 2 days. If we can overbalance on the daily (which
would be 936), then I will start to look for short entries.


Posted by: drstool Jun 2 2003, 03:55 PM
If the last couple days of the rally were nothing more than month end tape
painting, the whole thing will unravel with breathtaking speed. So, like I
said, if I had taken those shorts I talked about earlier today, I
personally would hold overnight.

But I must remind everyone that I am a horseshit trader. You should do
what is right for you.

Posted by: blackbelt Jun 2 2003, 03:56 PM
Some general thoughts

975 was the lenght for two equal length swings to the upside from the
October lows. Believe me, everyone and their sister knew about it. So
having those with long positions since the March lows, or those that
entered on the December breakout talking some profits, is natural.

Also revisit the inverted H&S I posted over the weekend that showed the
965 area as the target of the mini H&S. The traders who trade these
patterns take profits here and generate the selling. Also expected.

Now we have the timining pointing to this week. Till recently I hadn't
heard many talking about an early June high. Now I read quite a few posts
from people who "count" having this timeframe as a top. I don't like that
and altough I expect a down swing towards the end of July, I'll be very
cautious on the shorts I'll carry overnight.

On top of that, add a shitload of shorts that held all the way up since
March. These people are going to start covering on any dip they see trying
to break even. I don't think the shorts have been blown out. Maybe some
hedge funds that play with other people's money could have been blown out.
But the ma and pa shorts that learned the game last July are still
holding.

Cause it take nuts to take a loss and ma and pa traders don't have them

As always my 0.02

Posted by: Tchaikofsky Jun 2 2003, 03:57 PM
QUOTE (drstool @ Jun 2 2003, 02:55 PM)
But I must remind everyone that I am a horseshit trader. You should
do what is right for you.

Doc:

Do you short or dong the horseshit?

Any money in that?



Posted by: crooked_analyst Jun 2 2003, 04:00 PM
"As always my 0.02"

BB,

At 758 posts that would be worth $15.16 - approximately ONE share of AMAT.
As we all know, AMAT leads the market....thanks for your lead!


Posted by: drstool Jun 2 2003, 04:01 PM
I have to run out quickly at the close.

Again, I extend my sincere thanks for joining me. I couldn't be here
without you and I very much need your support! If you think I've done a
half decent job here in Stooltrading, and I know you all enjoy blackbelt
and your fellow stooltraders, then please feel free to mention it when
appropriate, on IDS and elsewhere.

Again, my sincere thanks. Have a great evening.

Stool Out!

Posted by: blackbelt Jun 2 2003, 04:04 PM
QUOTE (crooked_analyst @ Jun 2 2003, 03:00 PM)
"As always my 0.02"

BB,

At 758 posts that would be worth $15.16 - approximately ONE share of
AMAT. As we all know, AMAT leads the market....thanks for your lead!




The nature of the trade is changing guys.. I was talking to a friend
earlier and we both realized that. Last year it was easy. One direction.
Do you remember how difficult is was to buy the dip after the March 2000
top? Who would have thought that the top was in.

I remember buying the dips and getting blown off intraday. I remember
buying EMLX only to see it gap down 20 points the next day. Same with
CIEN. I remember buying a gap down at 124 and I would sell it for a loss
at 100 the same day.

Now it's the opposite. I short the rally when the market is supposed to
reverse and it doesn't....

Does that say something...??? It does to me


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[DrStool]

Stooltrading > Stooltrading Stadium > Toots Day June 3, 2003


Posted by: drstool Jun 3 2003, 08:48 AM
Good morning Stooltraders!

Futures were trading in an odd line this morning. They are currently in an
up phase on the overnight cycle. A one day cycle low was due in in the
last hour yesterday, and while it was delayed, we should see an up phase
this morning that lasts until 12:30 on the basis of the 5 hour cycle and
2:00 PM on the basis of the 1 day cycle. However, if the market shifts
into a 3 hour wavelet, the first high would be due at 10:30. Since we
don't know what will happen, we want to keep our eyes on indicators for
all three time frames. That means watching the 26/18 stos, 25 period RoC's
and 12/26 MACD's on 4 minute, 6 minute, and the usual 8 minute bars.

Right now the the upside cmap on the fucutures is 969.25. The qqq has been
trading in a line in the after and pre-markets. It's now at 29.48 with too
narrow a range for an upside projection. The SPY has a cmap of 97.36,
which is more or less equivalent to 971 cash. Given the fucutres and the
spy indications let's expect a high around 970.

Aaaaand as I complete these comments, here comes the jam.

I will see you around the open!



Posted by: zman Jun 3 2003, 08:59 AM
Good morning all, I have first resistance at 977.23 -- 2nd resistance at
986.27
first support at 961.33-- then at 954.47. Pivot point is at 970.37. Have a
good trading day

Posted by: blackbelt Jun 3 2003, 09:10 AM
Good morning,

I decided that since there are people interested in what I have to say
about the markets, it's not fair to them to stop posting completly outside
this forum. So I'll open a thread on Talking Stool and post my thoughts on
the markets. That of course if I have anything to say. Feel free to
comment and add your own opinions too. I posted a message last night and I
also answered a question related to the cycles I follow. If you have
access to Talking Stool you might want to read it.

I'm not going to trade today. Last week it was raining and I didn't play
golf so I'll go and tee it up today. The market should put a lower low
today, a trade below yesterday's low. I do not have any time pivots
pointing to today. I do have a time pivot for tomorrow. As I wrote at
TalkingStool I don't think the Nasdaq high is in. The SPX could have been
in, but I'm not sure about that either. The truth is that I don't feel
confortable right now trading on either side of the trade. So I'll do my
best to keep myself out of trouble.

I updated the daily index charts on my site so if you like you can go and
see the coming time pivots and Fib levels

Have a good trading day

Posted by: blackbelt Jun 3 2003, 09:39 AM
Stocks with pivots today: IDPH, KSS, SYMC ESRX, MXIM

If any of these stocks are putting lower lows today on the daily, the
pivot "could" be a low

Posted by: drstool Jun 3 2003, 09:40 AM
If you need a follow up on any of the setups I mentioned yesterday, please
let me know.

Posted by: drstool Jun 3 2003, 09:49 AM
Tentative 3 day cycle cmap is 958, due today.

Posted by: RiffRaff Jun 3 2003, 09:50 AM
BB-just wanted to say thanks for your time and effort here, your posts are
always of great interest. And Doc as always your great

Posted by: drstool Jun 3 2003, 09:59 AM
I see Greenie's jawboning now. If this isn't a sell signal, what is?

Posted by: drstool Jun 3 2003, 10:05 AM
Many tanks riff!

Now please go tell your friends on IDS!

Posted by: Drano Jun 3 2003, 10:05 AM
Some baloney for breakfast, just in time to save the market:

"Greenspan: "Fairly marked turnaround" for U.S. By Rachel Koning
The U.S. economy has seen a "fairly marked turnaround" recently, Federal
Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan told fellow central bankers at a panel in
Berlin. Greenspan is forecasting moderate growth going forward and a low
risk for deflation."

CBS Marketwarch

Posted by: DoubleFlush Jun 3 2003, 10:06 AM
CBOE PCR 9:00 AM CST

Equity 0.69
Index 2.94

Overall 0.98


Posted by: RockLedge Jun 3 2003, 10:07 AM
Doc, you're the best!

I can't say enough on how your cmaps have helped me and my trading.

Striker,.. longed SIRI @ the close yesterday.....

All because of our wonderful Doc....

Had a feeling about this snapback.


Posted by: drstool Jun 3 2003, 10:09 AM
Lightning storm here. If I disappear, that's why.

Posted by: drstool Jun 3 2003, 10:11 AM
qqq camp 29.71

Posted by: crooked_analyst Jun 3 2003, 10:11 AM
QUOTE (drstool @ Jun 3 2003, 09:09 AM)
Lightning storm here. If I disappear, that's why.

Can you make Greenspan disappear?

Posted by: drstool Jun 3 2003, 10:16 AM
Folks- gotta sign off until this storm is over. Back in a few!

Posted by: strikerm3 Jun 3 2003, 10:28 AM
QUOTE (RockLedge @ Jun 3 2003, 09:07 AM)
Doc, you're the best!

I can't say enough on how your cmaps have helped me and my trading.

Striker,.. longed SIRI @ the close yesterday.....

All because of our wonderful Doc....

Had a feeling about this snapback.

doc, long SIRI? ...or you mean overall direction?

Posted by: drstool Jun 3 2003, 10:35 AM
wow! That storm had some bolts in it. Had to turn off the compuker. Afraid
it, and I might get fried. Ah summer in Happy Acres!

I see the market has come back down off our cmaps of 29.70 and 971.



Posted by: RockLedge Jun 3 2003, 10:36 AM
Bulls gonna give it up here...

Striker... No, Doc called a 1 day cycle low yesterday at the close....
bounce was coming.

Doc long? Now that's a good one!

Already stopped out.






Posted by: DoubleFlush Jun 3 2003, 10:41 AM
..

Posted by: drstool Jun 3 2003, 10:44 AM
Nice old fashioned 1 day cycle swup under way. As I suspected there's
evidence of 3 hour waving, as we had a high right around 10:30. This may
cause a shift in the expected 5 hr cycle high to somewhat later then 12:30
and close to the expeted 1 day cycle high around 2:00. Overall, it points
to some weakness from 1:30- 2:00 to near the end of the day.

Posted by: drstool Jun 3 2003, 10:56 AM
I like to look at this chart 2-3 times a day. Keep in mind there's some
Stoolian Impressionism in the art.




Posted by: DoubleFlush Jun 3 2003, 11:05 AM
..

Posted by: AnotherOne Jun 3 2003, 11:09 AM
QUOTE (RockLedge @ Jun 3 2003, 09:36 AM)
Bulls gonna give it up here...

Striker... No, Doc called a 1 day cycle low yesterday at the
close.... bounce was coming.

Doc long? Now that's a good one!

Already stopped out.

Not yet, need an intraday double-top to go with the earlier intraday
double-bottom (at least in the Q's). Should be done forming in a while.
The question is whether we get a good drop or just stay deranged™ bound.

Posted by: AnotherOne Jun 3 2003, 11:12 AM
I was kind of expecting a Martha Stupid you no longer have to learn
something useless everyday rally.

Posted by: strikerm3 Jun 3 2003, 11:18 AM
QUOTE (RockLedge @ Jun 3 2003, 09:36 AM)
Bulls gonna give it up here...

Striker... No, Doc called a 1 day cycle low yesterday at the
close.... bounce was coming.

Doc long? Now that's a good one!

Already stopped out.

staying long on SIRI today. .....not a huge position. Entertainment value
is worth it....

Posted by: drstool Jun 3 2003, 11:26 AM
spx 1 day cmap now possible 973.

Posted by: drstool Jun 3 2003, 11:27 AM
and 29.77 on qqq.

Posted by: drstool Jun 3 2003, 11:29 AM
Every damn time a little volume comes in eSignal freezes up on me.
Fornicate!


Posted by: AnotherOne Jun 3 2003, 11:33 AM
Hmmm....a quick splurt up just as the intradays looked to be forming a
double-top. Closed my QQQ calls too early. Waiting for an intraday top
below yesterday's 2:30 pm levels to buy puts. If, for some reason, it
exceeds that, I'll have to consider going long again. I'm not expecting
it. This market needs a pull-back and consolidation before it tries to
break key resisistance levels.

Posted by: AnotherOne Jun 3 2003, 11:38 AM
On Livecharts, it look's like most of the cycles are tyring to turn up
after only a one day pull-back. Doesn't look right, but I'll have to be
cautious about shorting.

Posted by: zman Jun 3 2003, 11:45 AM
As I look back the past couple weeks everytime the market has had a small
down day the next day was up and we eventually went higher..I would hope
that we have a good push down today to stop this train...

Posted by: DoubleFlush Jun 3 2003, 11:49 AM
..

Posted by: AnotherOne Jun 3 2003, 11:50 AM
QUOTE (zman @ Jun 3 2003, 10:45 AM)
As I look back the past couple weeks everytime the market has had a
small down day the next day was up and we eventually went higher..I
would hope that we have a good push down today to stop this train...


It may have to smack into the same areas of resistance that turned it back
yesterday before we see any significant pullback.

Posted by: zman Jun 3 2003, 11:54 AM
[QUOTE]AnotherOne

I agree..I would like to short this thing, but will wait for further
confirmation here..will sit tight

Posted by: RockLedge Jun 3 2003, 12:13 PM
So far,.. things look like they're right on time.



Posted by: drstool Jun 3 2003, 12:19 PM
Here's how it looks on a 5 hour cycle basis.





Posted by: drstool Jun 3 2003, 12:21 PM
And on a 3 hour cycle basis.

Posted by: drstool Jun 3 2003, 12:21 PM
wrong chart. Please refresh!

Posted by: drstool Jun 3 2003, 12:22 PM
the s8 chart is updated on the chart page.

Posted by: DoubleFlush Jun 3 2003, 12:38 PM
..

Posted by: drstool Jun 3 2003, 12:39 PM
5 hr cycle ozzies heading down. 1 day ozzies starting to roll over.

Posted by: GregFokker Jun 3 2003, 12:55 PM
FVX is getting down there, -14.6 bps at 2.196%. The strength in equities
given the large fed drain of 5.25B, combined with strong buying in
treasuries, is inexplicable.

Posted by: blackbelt Jun 3 2003, 01:10 PM
I'm back..

Did I miss anything?

Posted by: drstool Jun 3 2003, 01:14 PM
Not sure what cycle is in charge here. If it's 3 hours, they may drift up
until 3. If it's 5 hrs then down until 2:30.

5 hr ozzies are pointing down, and 1 day are still in the process of
rolling over. I think odds are good fro a downdraft.

Posted by: blackbelt Jun 3 2003, 01:16 PM
After going quickly over the oscillators I follow in different timeframes,
the indications are that the downside has some more to go before a bounce
comes

Posted by: drstool Jun 3 2003, 01:30 PM
tentative possible downside cmap on spx 962.50. qqq 29.30.

Posted by: drstool Jun 3 2003, 01:36 PM
Anals PM Update-

1:25 The market made a 1 day cycle high at 12:00 and is working its way
grudgingly lower. A 5 hour cycle low is due at 2:30, and the 1 day cycle
low is due at the close. The 3 day cycle is in a week swup. the 5 day is
headed down and the 8 day seems to be slowly rolling over. We should have
some downside ahead. Very tentative cmaps at this point are 962.50 on the
SPX and 29.30 on QQQ. Given a little early acceleration here it could be a
lot worse.

Posted by: DoubleFlush Jun 3 2003, 01:37 PM
..

Posted by: drstool Jun 3 2003, 01:42 PM
We have a trendline issue right here. See the s40 chart.

Posted by: drstool Jun 3 2003, 01:46 PM
and on the qqq it's a neckline issue. See the qqq30 chart.

When these break there's gonna be some downside fireworks.

Posted by: drstool Jun 3 2003, 01:48 PM
they are being defended and with 5 hr low due by 2:30, should generate a
bounce.

Posted by: PyurAureo Jun 3 2003, 01:50 PM
QUOTE (blackbelt @ Jun 3 2003, 12:10 PM)
I'm back..

Did I miss anything?

How'd you shoot? (First things first ...)


Posted by: blackbelt Jun 3 2003, 01:51 PM
QUOTE (PyurAureo @ Jun 3 2003, 12:50 PM)
QUOTE (blackbelt @ Jun 3 2003, 12:10 PM)
I'm back..

Did I miss anything?

How'd you shoot? (First things first ...)



Baaaddd...

Posted by: PyurAureo Jun 3 2003, 01:52 PM
QUOTE (drstool @ Jun 3 2003, 12:14 PM)
Not sure what cycle is in charge here. If it's 3 hours, they may
drift up until 3. If it's 5 hrs then down until 2:30.

5 hr ozzies are pointing down, and 1 day are still in the process of
rolling over. I think odds are good fro a downdraft.

I know I'm ready to fro a draft down ...


Posted by: the end Jun 3 2003, 01:58 PM
I want to see this trend line broken.

Posted by: drstool Jun 3 2003, 02:00 PM
Yep. that's the one!

Posted by: blackbelt Jun 3 2003, 02:01 PM
SPX - 240m

There is an important timing for tomorrow for the first half of trading.
Using the 60m chart I narrow it down to the second hour of trading and
when we apply the variance we get a time window between 9:30 and 11:30.
That should be a good pivot, whether it's a high or low. The chart below
shows the potential downside targets if a top is in place for now

Remember one step at a time... if these levels are surpassed to the
downside we start measuring again



Posted by: strikerm3 Jun 3 2003, 02:01 PM
meta could you chart me WEBX please. ........interested in a short squeeze
if it gets to 14......50% short interest. currently not a buy to me but a
drop would form a nice entry if we have a pullback. and a move above 14
could cause something to stick its head out....crapitulation play! turtle
poker...25,50 crossover

Posted by: drstool Jun 3 2003, 02:05 PM
Seein' how quiet it is, I was wondering if I could get some Feedback on
Stooltrading.

We have a nice cozy group here. I was wondering if any of you have any
ideas how we could attract a few more people. I'm not the greatest when it
comes to marketing. You can PM or email me with feedback. Many tanks!

Posted by: blackbelt Jun 3 2003, 02:06 PM
Anyone knows when futures are rolling over to the next month? Thanks

Posted by: GregFokker Jun 3 2003, 02:06 PM
QUOTE (drstool @ Jun 3 2003, 02:05 PM)
Seein' how quiet it is, I was wondering if I could get some Feedback
on Stooltrading.

We have a nice cozy group here. I was wondering if any of you have
any ideas how we could attract a few more people. I'm not the
greatest when it comes to marketing. You can PM or email me with
feedback. Many tanks!

Getting the market to plunge about 3% would be a good start

Posted by: drstool Jun 3 2003, 02:06 PM
here we go here we go!

Posted by: drstool Jun 3 2003, 02:07 PM
Let's go plankton, Let's go!
Let's go plankton, Let's go!

Posted by: GregFokker Jun 3 2003, 02:08 PM
QUOTE (blackbelt @ Jun 3 2003, 02:06 PM)
Anyone knows when futures are rolling over to the next month? Thanks


Last trading day for ES is June 19th.

Posted by: DoubleFlush Jun 3 2003, 02:09 PM
..

Posted by: blackbelt Jun 3 2003, 02:09 PM
QUOTE (GregFokker @ Jun 3 2003, 01:08 PM)
QUOTE (blackbelt @ Jun 3 2003, 02:06 PM)
Anyone knows when futures are rolling over to the next month?
Thanks

Last trading day for ES is June 19th.

Thanks Greg.

Posted by: drstool Jun 3 2003, 02:17 PM
5 hr cycle trying to turn up.

Posted by: blackbelt Jun 3 2003, 02:17 PM
Just in case tomorrow's pivot is a low and for day-trading purposes only,
CCMP could be a good long candidate. This is the one that shot up 5 points
yesterday. If it manages to hold above 47 and especially above 47.5 while
the market is pushing higher, for the day, it could try to test
yesterday's high.

I would prefer to see a low coming tomorrow, it's late for today

Posted by: strikerm3 Jun 3 2003, 02:18 PM
QUOTE (GregFokker @ Jun 3 2003, 01:08 PM)
QUOTE (blackbelt @ Jun 3 2003, 02:06 PM)
Anyone knows when futures are rolling over to the next month?
Thanks

Last trading day for ES is June 19th.

thursday?

Posted by: blackbelt Jun 3 2003, 02:19 PM
QUOTE (strikerm3 @ Jun 3 2003, 01:18 PM)
QUOTE (GregFokker @ Jun 3 2003, 01:08 PM)
QUOTE (blackbelt @ Jun 3 2003, 02:06 PM)
Anyone knows when futures are rolling over to the next
month? Thanks

Last trading day for ES is June 19th.

thursday?

This coming Thursday?

Posted by: drstool Jun 3 2003, 02:24 PM
I'm moving qqq dowinside cmap out ot the due time for 1 day low at close
at 29.38. That will be negated if this up phase gets off the ground.

Posted by: strikerm3 Jun 3 2003, 02:26 PM
volume hitting SIRI again..possible move to 3.50 before this is
over....new commercials and races with Nascar will boost popularity as
well .....imo of course............staying long until down volume hits..if
it does today at all.

Posted by: strikerm3 Jun 3 2003, 02:32 PM
QUOTE (blackbelt @ Jun 3 2003, 01:19 PM)
QUOTE (strikerm3 @ Jun 3 2003, 01:18 PM)
QUOTE (GregFokker @ Jun 3 2003, 01:08 PM)
QUOTE (blackbelt @ Jun 3 2003, 02:06 PM)
Anyone knows when futures are rolling over to the
next month? Thanks

Last trading day for ES is June 19th.

thursday?

This coming Thursday?

hard time refreshing.....computer problems.......thought options, sorry
and no.

Posted by: drstool Jun 3 2003, 02:45 PM
OK we're back.

Posted by: Metamucil Jun 3 2003, 02:51 PM
QUOTE (strikerm3 @ Jun 3 2003, 12:01 PM)
meta could you chart me WEBX please. ........interested in a short
squeeze if it gets to 14......50% short interest. currently not a
buy to me but a drop would form a nice entry if we have a pullback.
and a move above 14 could cause something to stick its head
out....crapitulation play! turtle poker...25,50 crossover

Striker, a move above the 200dMA may be remotely interesting.



I'm nibbling on a couple of other fish....





Posted by: drstool Jun 3 2003, 02:57 PM
Looks to me like a 2-3 day cyce swup since the open today. Gotta go
sideways for a while, then down.

Posted by: strikerm3 Jun 3 2003, 03:00 PM
the 13sma, thats awesome. I especially like GENE. great charts.



Posted by: blackbelt Jun 3 2003, 03:01 PM
Doc,

Based on the current cycle configuration can you guess what tomorrow
morning might be? I try to see if the morning pivot I have will be a high
or a low. Tanks

Posted by: blackbelt Jun 3 2003, 03:06 PM
MXIM

Another one for tomorrow. Today it tested the trendline that connects the
October and February lows. Last time it did that it consolidated for three
days and then moved up 4 points. This is the second time it's testing the
trendline and the previous bounce didn't put a new high.

It could go either way but usually these are the king of positions we want
to find stocks in. Decision time and big move moving. We just have to
identify the direction


Posted by: RockLedge Jun 3 2003, 03:07 PM
QUOTE (strikerm3 @ Jun 3 2003, 01:26 PM)
volume hitting SIRI again..possible move to 3.50 before this is
over....new commercials and races with Nascar will boost popularity
as well .....imo of course............staying long until down volume
hits..if it does today at all.

Yupper,.. the one day chart gave it away... long again @2.14.

Lowered my stop... faked me out good last time and took it from me @ 2.11.

IMO, I see no resistance on this stock as far as volume is concerned.

Valuation, that's a whole another story....




Posted by: drstool Jun 3 2003, 03:08 PM
Hard to say which cycle is in control here. If it turns lower in the next
few minutes then a 1 day cycle low is due around the close/open. If it
holds up, I 'd look for a 5 hr high around 10:30. All depends on what
happens now.

Posted by: drstool Jun 3 2003, 03:10 PM
Going down to a 3-4 hour basis, this looks toppy. Next 10-15 minutes
should tell.

Posted by: Major Top Jun 3 2003, 03:11 PM
QUOTE (blackbelt @ Jun 3 2003, 02:06 PM)
We just have to identify the direction

The Rub

Posted by: drstool Jun 3 2003, 03:12 PM


Posted by: blackbelt Jun 3 2003, 03:12 PM
QUOTE (drstool @ Jun 3 2003, 02:08 PM)
Hard to say which cycle is in control here. If it turns lower in the
next few minutes then a 1 day cycle low is due around the
close/open. If it holds up, I 'd look for a 5 hr high around 10:30.
All depends on what happens now.

Thanks Doc.

I think it will be the first. It should be a low near the open. The 1.618
ratio on the 60m chart doesn't appear in minor cycles. If it's correct,
then it should market the high or low for the day.

I'll prepare for both scenarios just in case..

Posted by: DoubleFlush Jun 3 2003, 03:15 PM
..

Posted by: drstool Jun 3 2003, 03:17 PM
right now, 29.74 and 969.50 look like interim cmaps on tis move. that
doesn't mean it's over at that point, just that it could be. Won't know
until indicators reach extermes in conjunction with cmaps.

Posted by: blackbelt Jun 3 2003, 03:18 PM
LLTC

Add this one for tomorrow as well. Only on the long side.. Mini inverted
head and shoulder pattern on the daily, currently on the right shoulder.
The pattern starts on 5/5/03

Posted by: drstool Jun 3 2003, 03:22 PM
The 5 hr cycle low was almost perfectly on schedule at 2:30, so I gotta go
with that. That means that if it turns down before 10:00, bigger waves are
starting to come down.

Posted by: blackbelt Jun 3 2003, 03:23 PM
QCOM

Add this too....slightly extended but still below the 36 target we spoke
about when it was at 30.. Today the volume is strong and the stock is up
1.35.. Day trade only

Posted by: strikerm3 Jun 3 2003, 03:30 PM
5 million share block on SIRI just stalled it...

Posted by: blackbelt Jun 3 2003, 03:31 PM
Well..

Judging from all the patterns that I see right now tomorrow should be an
up day. It doesn't mean it WILL be, but during an uptend, what we want to
see is selloff in the morning and reversals to the upside in the
afternoon. As wahoo said yesterday no more that two to three days
selloffs.

So if tomorrow the market doesn't come out of the pullback to the upside
and instead reverses and starts selling off, we will start seeing "cracks"
in the structure of the upswing.

The same rules apply to a downtrend.

Posted by: blackbelt Jun 3 2003, 03:35 PM
QUOTE (strikerm3 @ Jun 3 2003, 02:30 PM)
5 million share block on SIRI just stalled it...

When it comes to small priced stocks think in increments. 2.50 first, then
3.25 , then 5, then 7.5

Each of these levels will be resistance. The price has to first climb a
level to target the next. Natural number division.

See the level where the block came in, slightly above the 2.5... magic!

Posted by: drstool Jun 3 2003, 03:36 PM
cmaps are only up a hair. 970.50 and 29.76.

Posted by: strikerm3 Jun 3 2003, 03:37 PM
bought more 2.25

Posted by: AnotherOne Jun 3 2003, 03:39 PM
I'd like to see a lower intraday high here.

Got impatient earlier so I have QQQ July 29 calls and June 30 puts.
Waiting to see which way this thing devolves.

Back in MSFT July 25, GE July 30 and CLS July 15 puts.

Posted by: strikerm3 Jun 3 2003, 03:45 PM
thanks for reply.....hoping market rallies into the close and it gets
driven up some more before I sell half position.

Posted by: drstool Jun 3 2003, 03:45 PM
Fianl targets for this cycle chould be 972.72 and 29.84.

Posted by: AnotherOne Jun 3 2003, 03:46 PM
Cut my gold/silver shares by 40% after reading JSMineset today. Was
heavily margined, so I am reducing exposure. Sold most of tech and biotech
holdings yesterday and today.

I am expecting some kind of pullback before this rally resumes. Once
direction is clear, I'll add positions accordingly.

Still watching silver for a bottom in the $4.30's to 4.40's to re-enter.
Seems to be in a pattern with lows about there and highs in the $4.70's to
4.80's.

Posted by: RiffRaff Jun 3 2003, 03:49 PM
QUOTE (blackbelt @ Jun 3 2003, 01:35 PM)
QUOTE (strikerm3 @ Jun 3 2003, 02:30 PM)
5 million share block on SIRI just stalled it...

When it comes to small priced stocks think in increments. 2.50
first, then 3.25 , then 5, then 7.5

Each of these levels will be resistance. The price has to first
climb a level to target the next. Natural number division.

See the level where the block came in, slightly above the 2.5...
magic!

Sorry for being so dense...........what's natural number division?? Many
tanks

Posted by: drstool Jun 3 2003, 03:49 PM
ehhhh, lets' say 971. Not sure. could be 971, could be 972.

Posted by: drstool Jun 3 2003, 03:55 PM
qqq cmap now 29.89

Posted by: strikerm3 Jun 3 2003, 03:56 PM
QUOTE (blackbelt @ Jun 3 2003, 02:35 PM)
QUOTE (strikerm3 @ Jun 3 2003, 02:30 PM)
5 million share block on SIRI just stalled it...

When it comes to small priced stocks think in increments. 2.50
first, then 3.25 , then 5, then 7.5

Each of these levels will be resistance. The price has to first
climb a level to target the next. Natural number division.

See the level where the block came in, slightly above the 2.5...
magic!

that works out pretty well with ET. Thanks for sharing. I just bought ET
and will use this scenario and target 10 with a sell at 7.50(its pretty
close to strategy I had in mind)...sell and buy back at that level or 5
below....if 12.50 gets hit next that would be about what the company is
worth if bought out from what my value friend says.....just an idea....

Posted by: blackbelt Jun 3 2003, 03:58 PM
QUOTE (RiffRaff @ Jun 3 2003, 02:49 PM)
QUOTE (blackbelt @ Jun 3 2003, 01:35 PM)
QUOTE (strikerm3 @ Jun 3 2003, 02:30 PM)
5 million share block on SIRI just stalled it...

When it comes to small priced stocks think in increments. 2.50
first, then 3.25 , then 5, then 7.5

Each of these levels will be resistance. The price has to
first climb a level to target the next. Natural number
division.

See the level where the block came in, slightly above the
2.5... magic!

Sorry for being so dense...........what's natural number division??
Many tanks

A natural number is a "regulal" number... 1,2,3,4 etc...

Gann wrote about them and Murrey the inventor of Murrey Math did extensive
work on them.

Take the number 10 since we count on the base of 10, divide it by 4 you
get 2.25. So between 2.25 and 10 you have: 2.25, 5, 7.5, 10. Between each
of these two divisions take the middle part, the 50%.

What do you get? 2.25, 3.25, 5, 6.25, 7.5, 8.75, 10.

The 50% level is the most important level and when a stock or market falls
to that level it's a "safe" buy according to Gann. 50% level from the
all-time high on the SPX 776.45

Hope that helps

Posted by: strikerm3 Jun 3 2003, 04:00 PM
good job everyone and thanks!

Posted by: drstool Jun 3 2003, 04:01 PM
Looks like the 5 hour cycle up phase will continue into tomorrow morning .
the high is due at 10:30 at 971-72 and 29.89. Then we'll look ofr the 1
day cycle high at 12:00. Could be higher or lower. That will tell the
story of the strength of what looks like a 3 day cycle swup at this point.
I expect it to peter out tomorrow in the PM, when the 5 and 8 day cyels
should start coming down.

Have a great night and many tanks for being here! See you tonight in the
Anals! Subscribe to the Anals too!
http://www.capitalst.../paid/anals.htm


Stool out!

Posted by: the end Jun 3 2003, 04:02 PM
Doc, FWIW, Mr BIG shorted today. No target yet.

Posted by: blackbelt Jun 3 2003, 04:03 PM
Everything in the markets as in nature, is about numbers. Nothing more.

We, as humans need to believe that there are fundamentals, P/Es, value/no
value because this is the way we understand our world. But when you forget
all of that and you open your mind you will see pure numbers. Vibrations
between the 0 and the 10 and multiples of it.

Difficult to accept? If you want give it a shot....

See ya tomorrow.

Posted by: strikerm3 Jun 3 2003, 04:04 PM
QUOTE (blackbelt @ Jun 3 2003, 02:58 PM)
QUOTE (RiffRaff @ Jun 3 2003, 02:49 PM)
QUOTE (blackbelt @ Jun 3 2003, 01:35 PM)
QUOTE (strikerm3 @ Jun 3 2003, 02:30 PM)
5 million share block on SIRI just stalled it...

When it comes to small priced stocks think in
increments. 2.50 first, then 3.25 , then 5, then 7.5

Each of these levels will be resistance. The price has
to first climb a level to target the next. Natural
number division.

See the level where the block came in, slightly above
the 2.5... magic!

Sorry for being so dense...........what's natural number
division?? Many tanks

A natural number is a "regulal" number... 1,2,3,4 etc...

Gann wrote about them and Murrey the inventor of Murrey Math did
extensive work on them.

Take the number 10 since we count on the base of 10, divide it by 4
you get 2.25. So between 2.25 and 10 you have: 2.25, 5, 7.5, 10.
Between each of these two divisions take the middle part, the 50%.

What do you get? 2.25, 3.25, 5, 6.25, 7.5, 8.75, 10.

The 50% level is the most important level and when a stock or market
falls to that level it's a "safe" buy according to Gann. 50% level
from the all-time high on the SPX 776.45

Hope that helps

2.25? not 2.50

Posted by: PyurAureo Jun 3 2003, 04:04 PM
QUOTE (the end @ Jun 3 2003, 03:02 PM)
Doc, FWIW, Mr BIG shorted today. No target yet.

Mr. BIG ????????

Posted by: drstool Jun 3 2003, 04:04 PM
With the strength of the close, the cmap on spx goes to 974.25.

Posted by: blackbelt Jun 3 2003, 04:05 PM
QUOTE (strikerm3 @ Jun 3 2003, 03:04 PM)
QUOTE (blackbelt @ Jun 3 2003, 02:58 PM)
QUOTE (RiffRaff @ Jun 3 2003, 02:49 PM)
QUOTE (blackbelt @ Jun 3 2003, 01:35 PM)
QUOTE (strikerm3 @ Jun 3 2003, 02:30 PM)
5 million share block on SIRI just stalled it...


When it comes to small priced stocks think in
increments. 2.50 first, then 3.25 , then 5, then
7.5

Each of these levels will be resistance. The price
has to first climb a level to target the next.
Natural number division.

See the level where the block came in, slightly
above the 2.5... magic!

Sorry for being so dense...........what's natural number
division?? Many tanks

A natural number is a "regulal" number... 1,2,3,4 etc...

Gann wrote about them and Murrey the inventor of Murrey Math
did extensive work on them.

Take the number 10 since we count on the base of 10, divide it
by 4 you get 2.25. So between 2.25 and 10 you have: 2.25, 5,
7.5, 10. Between each of these two divisions take the middle
part, the 50%.

What do you get? 2.25, 3.25, 5, 6.25, 7.5, 8.75, 10.

The 50% level is the most important level and when a stock or
market falls to that level it's a "safe" buy according to
Gann. 50% level from the all-time high on the SPX 776.45

Hope that helps

2.25? not 2.50

Sorry typo... I type 65 words/minute....

EDIT and I also have to translate my thoughts in english

Posted by: RiffRaff Jun 3 2003, 04:05 PM
Many tanks BB, it does help

Posted by: drstool Jun 3 2003, 04:20 PM
Maybe that's my problem.

I type 6.5 words per minute.