War Rally Coming ?

[GameZector]

What are the various views here on the "war rally"? Everyone seems to be expecting this to happen and have positioned themselves accordingly. This suggests that it won't happen. (Mutual funds had 13% cash/assets in 1991, but only 4% now.) But, everyone knew there would be a huge rally into Christmas because of seasonality, yet it happened just like everyone said it would.

 

So, what's a Stool to do? War rally or not?

[FeedFool]

Only thing that has more guarantee then war rally is scam week rally. It also comes nearly every month. Which one will u go for?

[Pretzel Logic]

I suspect the "war rally" has already been priced in. Those who would buy on the war have most likely front-run the rally and are now invested. If anything, I suspect some sellers have been waiting to sell into the war rally -- which means we should see selling pressure increase when the war starts. If we get any kind of rally, I don't expect it to last more than a few days -- then I would expect it to be retraced quickly and we'll make new swing lows. I'm actually half-expecting us to tank right out of the gate on news of war.

 

But, who knows. We'll just have to see how the first few days play out after the war starts (assuming of course that we have a war).

 

And Feed Fool's right: scam week has been like clockwork lately.

 

Also, I'm pretty sure I wouldn't call this a "huge rally into Christmas":

[DrStool]

Welcome GZ.

 

First Immutable Precept of Stock Proctology

 

When 'everyone" (on the Street), knows something will happen, the opposite is guaranteed.

 

Note that the Santa Claus rally expectation was a good example of the Immutable Precept. (IP1)

[Guest]

Yet another bear market rally is coming - but it has nothing to do with the war. Just take a look at the Bullish Percentage Indexes in my forum. Many of the other indicators I follow there also say that an intermediate-term low is close.

 

Of course, depending on whether war breaks our or not, the media will attribute it either to "the war rally" or to a "relief that there is no war rally".

 

Regards,

Vesselin