[fxfox]

USD/CHF (swiss franc) is almost a copy of dollar index chart, but since one cant trade dollar index i dont analyze it, but to see what dollar really does it is ok to look at the usd/chf chart.
We go to weekly chart, cause monthly chart isnt tradeable, so i dont look at it. Signals in monthly charts are so lagging that one can be bankrupt since weeks when a signal finally comes. Monthly charts are not for traders, they are for lurkers. They are useless for trading. End of rant

So what do we have:
well, the top in usd/chf was made with bearish MACD divergences, very noce to see on the charts, in fact there were two negstive MACD divergences, top was made in 2000/2001. But now, there is a really nice bullish divergence in the weekly chart, also we have a very nice downtrend channel, you can draw it from july01 top over march02 intermediate top, then you draw a parallel line, guess where recent low was? Yes, exactly at the parallel line.

We have also divergence in weekly RSI (14) and RSI was below 30 and is now above 30 again.

We havent had such bullish divergences in the past 5 years.

So possibilty is high that we have an intermediate bottom in usd/chf, there could even be a spectacular upmove comming over next months.
Is this bullish for stocks? Well, maybe. At least it isnt monster style bearish i would say.

Since i am not one of "DA BOYZ" i dunno what they have in mind. Maybe the will buy dollar like crazy animals when war is over? Why not. They did crazy things in the past, isnt it? Nobody on this planet - except mega bulls - expected what happened after sep11 2001, isnt it?

We will see what boyz will do. All i can say is, that the charts favour an upmove.

[machinehead]

The FunnyMentals may be influencing the dollar strength that fxfox mentions. Bloomberg reports today that 'Dim Wim' Duisenberg admitted at the G-7 finance ministers meeting that the European economy is in trouble:

"If anything, uncertainties about future developments seem to have increased further,'' Duisenberg told reporters during a meeting of Group of Seven finance ministers and central bankers. "The perspective of an economic recovery this year is no longer supported by the most up-to-date information.''

According to Bloomberg, Duisenberg's gloomy comments suggest some ax-murderer-style rate slashing in the Euro area, starting as soon as next month. This will cut the Euro's yield advantage over the dollar.

Dim Wim Folds

If neither currency offers a yield advantage, the question is who can offer a more-attractive stock market bubble to pull in hot money? The U.S. still has its funky Nasdaq tech shares, which, like Fleetwood Mac and Simon & Garfunkle, may come back some day. On the other hand, the devastation in European bourses has been truly spectacular.

Germany's DAX index has been poleaxed to an astounding 67% loss in the past three years. Since European market caps aren't all that big, they ought to be bullable to some pretty spectacular pops with governmental sponsorship. You can be sure that desperate insurance industry lobbyists are promoting this 'uplift mofo party plan' even as we speak. Save the Euro! Save the whales!

DAX index chart:

[fxfox]

vesselin,

well, i am talking about USD/CHF weekly chart, and MACD as indicator.

You can have a look here

it is a java aplett.

MH,

i dunno since when i hear that german shares have now attractive valuations, and yes, compared to US shares they are attractive, but still no one buys them. The money which did flow back form the US was in fact never used to pump up any european stock market, espacially not DAX.

All i can say is, that there wasnt any bullish divergence in the last 5 years in USD/CHF chart. Maybe intermediate bottom in dollar? We will see. Maybe a sign of comming bear market rally in sotcks? We will see.

I say if july and october lows hold again in cooming few weeks, than look out for a good rally, maybe to 950-965 region in S&P. I have seen to many crazy things in last 3 years to rule out such a rally.

WINTER IS FOR BULLS
SUMMER IS FOR BEARS
SELL IN MAY AND GO AWAY

[fxfox]

vesselin,

i am not able to post charts. I tried it several times, but every time the image is too big, i dunno how to handle the "paint" programme, when i change size of image say form 800x600 to 400x300 then half of the image is lost, i dunno how to do it. The size of images i wanna post is 80kb and more, thats too much. Oh well......

i gave youw rong link, try this one link with this one you will get weekly chart too.

The lack of readers of this thread tells me something: Bears wanna read what they wanna see, they are too prejudiced. I say it again: Since 5 years there wasnt a divergences in the United States Dollar/ Swiss Franc chart. For me that is an indicator of things to come. hose how beleive that market will crash because of war are on the wrong side. G7 meeting said they will watch markets closly, they will do everything possible to avoid panic or anything else. When you fight against those guys who have really power, you will get fornicateed, it is like fighting the BoJ, they are stronger than you. Sometimes i ahve the feeling that we are at nasdayq 5000 currentyl, but we arent. Thsi bear marekt isnt in its early stages. We have had a very good downmove. There should be more to come, but i know one thing:

IT IS TIME THAT BEARS GET REALLY fornicateED

it is time for a real good countermove, it is just time. I dont say i like that, but i am not the market, none of you is, although one could say that some bears think they are more powerfull than the market makers. There could come a rally out of the blue.

Humasn beings have the ability to adopt to situations. Do you know who the market will ract to terrorist attacks in the future? If there is another attack on US soil, there will be a reaction, but after the 3rd of 4th of 5th atack market will not react anymore. Why? Because humans see it then as normal to have 2 times a year a suicide bombing or something else.

But well, what should i say, if we would go to 965 again, all bears will say: "And? Did anything happen? Market still in downtrend."

Good luck to all!

[fxfox]

well, didnt i say bears see qwhat they wanna see? JUst kidding vesselin!

there is a MACD divergence when you look at july02 low and current low. Loojk at price and look at MACD and draw the line not above the MACD, you must draw it below, because we compare lows not highs.
Of course the time frame is only 8 months or so, so it is unlikeyl that we have a major low, but maybe an intermediate low.

[fxfox]

yes vesselin, thats all i expect, a bounce to 103-105 not more. But i thought since dollar is an indicator for stock market action (not necessrily but possibly ) that it is worht it to look if there are signs of dollar stabilization or even strengh.

Buit now, vesselin, please tell me how you attacked that chart. I go to that site, then i press the print screen button and open the file in MS paint? or how do i do that?

TIA

[Goldmember]

High in the mountains, at the exclusive, secure location perched precariously on the shoulder of just one peak of the dozen or so picture-postcard alps, Da Boyz admire the stunning view before retiring inside. Coming in off the deck they shuffle slowly into the library, where they gather for a brief moment at the fireplace. Huddled there for a moment, in a effort to warm the blood that runs cold in the vericose veins struggling to maintain thir aponeurotic relationship within their fat, wrinkled skin suits, Uncle Al briskly rubs his hands together as a prelude to the libations to ensue. Ambling a dozen feet to the overstuffed chair,Uncle Al bends his weary body to conform to the curves of the chair, amidst the protests emanating from the multitudes of bones that seem to posess a will of their own these days.

Just as they settle in their chairs a servant enters the room, daintily yet proficiently balancing a tray containing a fine Waterford crystal decanter and seven matching glasses, summoned by a timing instinct only the most experienced staff have a knack of knowing. As she decants the ellixor of fine port into the glasses, she casts a quick glance from the side of her eye to the collection of broken down hapless old men. She makes an offering to each of the men gathered, which is accepted with disdain towards the hapless servant, who flees the room in terror after the last of the cretins makes a wry, grizzled effort at pinching her bottom.

"Oh, Al, must you terrorize the staff so? It is so hard to find good help these days. Besides, we have arranged some special entertainment for tonight after the game." Dim Wim declares.

Ah yes, Al thinks to himself, pleased at the results of a good old fashioned stock market bubble to get good things like Viagra into the pipeline. Yes, such a wonderful time it was, indeed.

Disrupting Al's pleasant meanderings of thought a male servant enters, for word had already spread throughout the staff about the special guests that had already reduced one of the more senior servants to tears, saunters into the room with a fine mahogany humidor, filled with Cubanos.He makes his way to each of the men, and they each choose one of the zeppelins within the fine tropical mahogany box, lined up like pickets in a fence. As John Manley chooses his selection he throws a wink at the servant, quickly returned, and the servant leaves the room, leaving the humidor on the table, joyfully contemplating his coming late night clandestine meeting. Da Boyz perform their timeless ritual of preparing their stoagies for combustion, and with an initial super nova burst of flame from their CISCO lighters, they coax the stoagies into a glowing ember of satisfaction.

As they settle back into their overstuffed chairs Al's gaze settles upon the fine tropical mahogany box, with its swirls of beauty running throughout the grain, enhanced by the glow emanating from the massive chandelier casting a miriad of lumens upon the room.Such a lovely pattern he thinks, only in nature can such true beauty be found.


The tranquility prevails for only but a few moments, as the grizzled veterans of creative structured finance struggle in a vain effort to muster their windbags into enough of a bellows to get a good puff off the fine cigar, struggling to stay alit. Not having much success Al works up to a crescendo of billowing and finally gets a good haul off the exotic stoagie, only to find his windbags are tired of such foreign particulates and protest with a mighty heave of rebellion and revolution, and sends Al into a fit of spasmodious coughing and retching. Oh, God, he thinks, filled with sorrow, can't a man even enjoy a good cigar anymore? His cohorts glance over worriedly, as Al's pallor has taken the same hue as the blue smoke filling the room. Al shakes it off and declares with his returning strength,

"Come gentlemen, let us play poker!"

As the night wears on, the chips pass to a different winner each hand, with no clear winner at this juncture of the game. None are exceptionally skilled, yet they manage to spread the chips in a fairly even distribution, until it was obvious to all the participants that it was soon getting down to the shorts. Dim Wim, thinking he could pull a bluff on the rest of the contestants, decides to bet the house on the last hand. His confidence comes from his success at having successfully used this manouver before, at Uncle Al's expense. Dim looks at his hand, and though filled with trash, he proceeds to bet on it as if held a royal flush. he bids up the hand, with bigger and bigger raises each round, and is surprised that all the other players are matching his raises. After one last raise, Dim glances over at Al, who proceeds to move his entire mass of chips into the center of the table. With a smug look Al looks back at Dim Wim and mutters to himself "et tu Brute"

Dim looks at the massive pile of chips and Al's smug look and realizes his bluff had no chance. They were onto him. Ah well, it was a fun run while it lasted. With all the missing flourish of the beaten man, he tosses his cards onto the table in a fit of disgust. Uncle Al smiles, and stretches his arms out to rake in the massive mountain of chips, his lizard tongue flicking in and out in the rythmic bliss of the victor. To his horror, the evenings arranged 'entertainment' had just walked in, a passel of fine blonds, redheads, and brunettes, and were party to the display of his flickering lizard tongue. In a frantic scurry of panic the ladies fled the room, slamming the door with terror, and Al, in a complete fit of rage, throws the port decanter through the glass door leading onto the bacony. A cold wind blows in and distributes a chill amidst the room. The fireplace flickers with life as a few breaths of fresh oxygen whip a last gust of flames from the remaining fuel within it, dwindling quickly as this bit of resusitation fails to keep the combustion process alive. Uncle Al looks over at Dim Wim and yells

"Come on Dim, I mean Wim, throw a few bundles onto the flames. It's getting cold in here! I've thrown enough presto logs on so far. Now it's your turn"

Dim Wim sighs, bends over and grabs a few bundles of billions of euro notes and tosses them onto the fire. Ah, what the heck, he sighs, it's just toilet paper anyway, just like all the crap Al has piled up beside his fireplace at home.

John Manley, up a few chips for the night, plans a graceful exit to retire to his room and enjoy the fruits of his meager winnings with his clandestine guest. I'm glad all my family's holdings are in gold and gold mining companies, he sighs with relief.